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Regardless and irrespective of what happens on the final day of York’s Ebor meeting, it will go down as wholeheartedly an outstanding success. Some battling handicappers, exciting two year olds, and most memorably and perhaps historically, the manner of Frankel’s demolition job will live with me and no doubt others for a good while past the hysteria and hoopla.
They really do go out with a bang on Saturday, with another stellar card, and a nice shapely mix to it and the 2.00 is The City of York Listed Stakes, which has an open field for the twelve runners. Dimension and Eton Forever have been trading blows and running well off high in weights in good handicaps, and they are obviously respected. I have gone on all week however about how valuable the course specialists as we’ve seen already with how well that man Fallon rides around here. SMARTY SOCKS is a three time course winner, and has an unbelievable record of 10 wins from 31 runs at seven furlongs. Running at York over seven furlongs on four occasions has brought three successes and a third place finish in a competitive nineteen runner handicap. He goes for an in form stable at one of their favourite venues, and looks massively overpriced at around 16/1.
I have done an in depth thorough look at the Melrose Handicap, which will be found elsewhere on the site, but here is the synopsis.
http://jjmsports.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-betfred-melrose-handicap-york-230.html
The two I expect to be fighting out the finish are the two unexposed colts of BIOGRAPHER and GUARANTEE, with the latter just edging it. Biographer has been hinting that a mile and three quarters could be his optimum trip, but the manner of Guarantee’s maiden and handicap wins are still etched in my memory. I backed him for his maiden win, and he was green and struggled until the last furlong and a half when really motoring late on. He made a mockery of his opening mark, dotting up by four lengths, and although incurring an 8lb rise, he is going the right way, and will have outstanding claims if fulfilling potential.
The Lonsdale Cup looks like a decent renewal, and Saddlers Rock is respected due to the manner in which he won the Goodwood equivalent under a good ride from JP Murtagh. However at the prices I am inclined to oppose him and instead fancy CAVALRYMAN, whom I backed when winning at Sandown Park, in very impressive fashion. Frankie Dettori won this race last year on Opinion Poll, and the manner of his course win over a mile and three quarters back in June was shows the old boy is in good nick. He comes here back in form, and in good heart, and with him being around the 5/1 mark, he looks an each way to nothing.
I have backed three runners ante post in The Ebor, and all have got in, I still like all three, and would rather back a few in a race like this, on the day it will be best odds guaranteed, and favourites have a shocking record. Motivado is well in, but you need a lot of luck to win a race like this.
The Ebor is seen as the prize race, and whereas I for instance have had better luck in The Nunthorpe and The Yorkshire Oaks in previous years, this is the one for the casual punter on a Saturday afternoon, with an expected crowd of 60,000 – Royal Ascot combined with northern charm. The first horse that I like, given his tremendous form around The Knavesmire is CRACKENTORP for local connections, trained by Tim Easterby. He has run four times so far this season, form figures of 3-1-2-9. Game and gutsy, second in The Northumberland Plate on the back of a good win over a mile and half in an apprentice handicap at York. He won well, and went on to give a game account in The Plate, in atrocious conditions. He fluffed next time out, but I think the race came too soon, and freshened up with a break, with his stable, and his record around York (2390011319), he can bounce back.
HURRICANE HIGGINS is another who makes the shortlist based on his win at Goodwood last week, winning well over two and a half miles. He saw the trip out well, but going back through his form, he was beaten only six lengths by subsequent St Leger winner Masked Marvel, and six lengths by Namibian and Fiorente in last years Gordon Stakes. His form seems to rely on good ground, and with conditions expected to suit, he will run with a 4lb penalty, and will effectively be 5lb well in. Based on the form his run over The Ebor trip at Newmarket in May, he could be very well handicapped, with that race in particular working out very well.
TOMINATOR has been feeling his way back into the season, and through being basically tailed off in The Chester Cup, and then beaten ten lengths in a Haydock handicap, he has returned to the mark of 97, which should give him a chance. A ready winner of The Northumberland Plate last year, the trainer Reg Hollinshead has said all this horse wants is a trip of a mile and three quarters at a strong pace on good ground. He should get all three in The Ebor, and with money already being thrown around for the animal, and fresh off a break, he has to go on the shortlist, even if only precautionary and as a saver.
COSMIC CHATTER put his Royal Ascot run behind him when winning a conditions stakes at Musselburgh nicely. I tipped him up and backed him at Royal Ascot, and such was the nature of the race, he was never able to get into it. He beat Liber last time out, who ran on well to finish fourth in The Yearling Stakes at York on Thursday, and he looks to be the one to beat in The Roses Stakes, which looks to be a good listed race for two year olds.
If we still haven’t had a winner, and judging by the seconditis that has plagued me all week that may be the case, we will keep chipping away and take two in the 4.50, both of whom won comfortably when making their first foray into handicaps. MEDICOE was impressive enough in maidens, without being really tested, and was well backed on his debut, going off the 4/6 favourite, winning cosily enough without being severely tested. Only 1lb up for that win, he still has plenty in hand, and looks well treated. As does SALUTATION for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning, who has a similar profile, who won a Newcastle handicap by two lengths over the same trip. Up 6lb may not hold him back, and he looks the pick of the yards three runners.
The swansong sees a ‘Champion Apprentice’ race, which seemingly now happens at the end of these big festivals, giving the kids a chance to shine. A muddling race where SIR MAXIMILIAN stands out head and shoulders above the rest. The gelding broke his maiden tag at the fourth attempt and on his first run in handicaps ran well over six furlongs, tiring late on, and losing second in the last fifty yards. Dropping back down to five should suit, and he goes for a yard in really good nick, as seen with Snow Fairy’s win last Sunday in France.
2.00 York – Smarty Socks
2.30 York – Guarantee & Biographer
3.05 York – Cavalryman
3.40 York – Crackentorp, Tominator & Hurricane Higgins
4.15 York – Cosmic Chatter
4.50 York – Medicoe & Salutation
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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