Thursday 16 March 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017; Friday Day 4

The feature race of the Cheltenham Festival is today’s Gold Cup and if his stamina holds I hope to see Cue Card become the first 11-year-old since Mandarin in 1962 to win the Blue Riband of jump racing although it should be noted that What A Myth was a year older when scoring in 1969.

Cue Card came down three out when going every bit as well as the eventual winner Don Cossack in the corresponding race last year but would he have got home up the Cheltenham hill? One thing is for sure he has been a credit to connections and I wonder whether Colin Tizzard could have even dreamt that seven years on from saddling the horse to win the Bumper at the Festival back in 2010 he would be back with a leading chance in the big one.

No Don Cossack to worry about but stablemate Native River will ensure a true test of stamina. The Hennessy/Welsh National winner he has never scored in three starts at Cheltenham and blundered his way around in the 4m NH Chase before finishing a remarkable second last year. The winner Minella Rocco (3.30) re-opposes this afternoon and looks a cracking price each-way against. He will have Noel Fehily in the plate, and looks sure to go well alongside stablemate More of That.

Nicky Henderson has been telling all-and-sundry that Charli Parcs (1.30) is in a different class to Wednesday’s Fred Winter runner up Divin Bere and he looked very impressive when scoring on his British debut at Kempton over Christmas. If his subsequent fall two out behind Master Blueyes back at Kempton has not knocked his confidence he must go close under the excellent Fehily.

BetVictor are ¼ odds 5 places in the County Hurdle and it will be interesting to see if the market speaks in favour of Ivanovic Gorbatov for Joseph O’Brien – if it does, I suggest we take the hint. Dan Skelton saddled the County Hurdle winner (Superb Story) twelve months ago and I expect to see a bold show from North Hill Harvey but he is 8lbs higher than when winning the Greatwood Hurdle back in November when he had Winter Escape (2.10) well down the field.

I refuse to believe, however, that was the lightly-raced gelding’s true form and he looked a potential star when winning his first three starts on decent ground. Alan King’s runners have, at the time of writing, run well in defeat so far this Festival and Winter Escape has avoided the winter ground in recent months and should enjoy underfoot conditions.

Death Duty (2.50)
is reported by many of the Irish as their banker of the meetinng and he can not be opposed for the in-form yard of Gordon Elliott. The yard have enjoyed five winners already at the festival and Death Duty, a winner of all four starts over hurdles, should maintain his yet unblemished record over timber.

Jamie Codd takes over from Nina Carberry (in foal) on the great On The Fringe (4.10) in the Foxhunters’ and he cannot be opposed in his hat-trick attempt. Taking 11/8 in a 24-runner event might not sound like value but he is likely to drift out to something near the 2/1 mark and that would be a decent price.

Tim Vaughan has acquired the services of the excellent Harry Cobden for his Dadsintrouble in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s event and he must go close given he has looked a progressive sort in winning his last two starts at Haydock albeit over slightly further on soft ground.

The vote, however, goes to No Comment (4.50) who has won his last three starts and has been taken slowly-slowly by leading connections. His ability to handle this big field must be taken on trust but he did win a 24-runner Punchestown Bumper back in April and is thoroughly unexposed over hurdles. The selection is 6/1 with BetVictor and I will be disappointed if he is out of the frame.

The Festival finale is the Grand Annual Chase and Dandridge looks a worthy favourite but I have always thought there was a big race in Rock The World and this might be the day. The selection finished third in the corresponding race in 2016 and there is little between him and likely favourite Dandridge at the revised terms. He must go close alongside fellow Irish raider Velvet Maker (5.30) with the latter marginally preferred at his current price of 14/1.

Selections
1.30 Charli Parcs
2.10 Winter Escape
2.50 Death Duty
3.30 Minella Rocco
4.10 On the Fringe
4.50 No Comment
5.30 Velvet Maker
For all your sporting odds check out BetVictor.com



Cheltenham Festival; Thursday Day 3

Day three of the Cheltenham Festival begins with the JLT Novices Chase and it is possible that the enigmatic Yorkhill (1.30) could come home alone if his jumping stands the test. He can be very keen, however, and whilst I acknowledge that he is the most talented horse in the race he will have to jump better than he did in his last couple of starts and he is reluctantly overlooked.
Politologue and Disko are much respected but I am going to chance the Mullins’ animal, who can hopefully end Willie Mullins’ and Ruby Walsh’s as of yet blank week at the festival.

The Pertemps Final is one of the big betting races of the week and BetVictor are betting each way five places on the 24-runner handicap. The extraordinary Tobefair began life for Debra Hamer running off a mark of just 81 but a magnificent 7 wins later he will attempt to defy a 62lbs rise since his winning spree began back in June 2015.

I marginally prefer the pair of Barney Dwan and Ballymalin (2.10) with the latter making most appeal under man of the moment Noel Fehily. The selection is on both 3lb and 10lb better terms with the re-opposing pair of Rocklander and Impulsive Star, and should relish this afternoon’s forecast better ground.

Un De Sceaux (2/1 at BetVictor) is likely to be all the rage for the Ryanair Chase and he is a worthy favourite but I just favour the chances of Uxizandre (2.50), who was Sir AP McCoy’s last Festival winner, ran a cracking race coming back from a long break behind the jolly over the minimum trip last time. He should get a soft lead and must go close in his attempt to make all over two and a half miles for a second year in three.

The feature event is the Stayers’ Hurdle and Unowhatimeanharry (3.30), who won the Albert Bartlett at the corresponding meeting 12 months ago, is the 5/4 market leader for Harry Fry whose yard came so close to landing the opener yesterday courtesy of Neon Wolf. Unowhatimeanharry has won all eight starts for Harry Fry and is unopposable at the head of the market.

The ground has come right for Gordon Elliot’s Diamond King in the 24-runner 2m 4f Handicap Chase but he is a hold-up horse and will need luck in running – he is a leading contender but 5/1 is skinny enough. I marginally prefer Starchitect (4.50) at a working man’s price, who looks to have been laid out for the race and remains unexposed over fences.

Let’s Dance (4.50) is considered one of the bankers of the meeting for Willie Mullins and she is difficult to oppose with the form of her Triumph Hurdle fourth last year franked by the win of third placed Apples Jade in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle on the opening day. The selection is 6/4 at BetVictor and may have most to fear from La Bague Au Roi who has been laid out for this since scoring at Newbury back in November.

The Kim Muir is another ultra-competitive 24-runner event and Squouateur must go close if his stamina holds up but he is short enough at 7/1 and Doctor Harper (5.30) can hopefully run better than he did 12 months ago when a beaten favourite under Will Biddick. Pilot Lisa O’Neill claimed a first festival success aboard Tiger Roll in Tuesday’s NH Chase and with the son of Presenting back to last year’s mark, he must go close sporting both a first-time tongue tie and cheek-pieces.

For all your racing odds check out BetVictor.com

Wednesday 15 March 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017; Wednesday, Day Two

Wednesday’s highlight is undoubtedly the Queen Mother Champion Chase, which brings racing’s best 2m Chasers together in theory but the majority of those seem to be scared by the prospect of the mighty Douvan. Last year’s Arkle winner has been sublime since switched over the larger obstacles and is unopposable at his current price of 1/4 to maintain his unbeaten record chasing.

Stablemate Un De Sceaux, a beaten favourite in the corresponding contest 12 months ago, steps up in trip to tackle the Ryanair and was rumoured to take both Fox Norton and God’s Own (3.30) with him and I’m delighted to see Tom George’s charge opt for Wednesday’s engagement. The selection looks a cracking bet at 7/2 in the betting without market, improving on his fourth in the race last term, by winning at both the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals thereafter.

He took advantage of Vautour’s fall in the Melilng to bolt-up under regular partner Paddy Brennan but there was no fluke about his Punchestown success when bettering the pair of Simonsig and Vautour in the Champion Chase. He boasts a great record fresh and should finish inside the four at the very least.

Neon Wolf will be all the rage in the opening Neptune Novices’ Hurdle but I’m keen to oppose him on good, spring ground and have already backed the pair of Bacardys and Messire Des Obeaux (1.30) at double-figure prices ante-post. The latter remains a fair price at 8/1 after beating first Ballyandy at Sandown, then a strong field at Newbury for the G1 Challow Hurdle. He failed to give 8lb and a beating to a strong field in the Sidney Banks last time out at Huntingdon however, back on level terms must go well for Alan King and Daryl Jacob.

Nicky Henderson has three live chances in the RSA Chase, bidding to win the race for the first time since Bob’s Worth won en-route to scoring in the Gold Cup at the following festival. The Master of Seven Barrows has made no secret of his admiration towards Might Bite but the gelding looked buzzy when scoring last time out at Doncaster and took a crashing fall when had the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at his mercy.

Whisper should relish the step up in trip after two recent successes at Cheltenham however, Clan des Obeaux has let the form down thereafter. I’ve backed OO Seven (2.10) at 33/1 ante post and think he must go well under the excellent Aidan Coleman. He made a winning debut over the larger obstacles at the Open Meeting in November and was far from disgraced in tacky ground at Doncaster bidding to follow-up under a penalty. He was well-placed to score in handicap company over two and a half miles last time out at Huntingdon but looks an out-and-out three mile horse, and can hopefully reward each-way support at a price.

OO Seven was completing a treble for the Henderson yard that day, with Divin Bere the middle leg after bettering Alan King’s Triumph Hurdle hopeful Master Blueyes in the £20,000 4yo Hurdle and must go well under top weight in the Fred Winter. Connections expected him to need the run that day and he should make a nice chaser next term and is perhaps a little skinny at the prices.

Another King inmate that takes the eye is Dino Velvet (4.50) after his excellent second last time out at Ludlow. I was at the weights release at Cheltenham to hear his trainer delighted that Dino Velvet was left unchanged on a mark of 125 and he looks over-priced for an unexposed and progressive animal.

The Coral Cup looks a minefield and most importantly, it’s key to shop around with the high street firms offering just four places to each-way customers but five and even six places out there online. Tombstone could be absolutely chucked-in from a mark of 149 and trainer Gordon Elliott knows what it takes to win the race, with Diamond King doing the business for column readers 12 months ago, and should go close with either Tombstone, Automated or RunforDave. I’ll throw a few darts at the race with Hawk High, River Frost (2.50) and Monksland who are all likely to go close at massive prices.

I’ve little interest in the Cross-Country race and expect to see Any Currency run his usual race out in front, whilst Cantlow looks the most obvious winner. Likewise in the Champion Bumper, where Carter McKay is a deserved favourite based on his two bumper wins in Ireland. I had a good word for Warren Greatrex’s Western Ryder (5.30) when winning a Listed Bumper at Ascot earlier in the season and, after narrowly failing to defy a penalty last time out at Newbury, looks primed for another bold bid.

Selections
1.30 Messire des Obeaux
2.10 OO Seven
3.30 God’s Own
4.50 Dino Velvet
5.30 Western Ryder

Sunday 12 March 2017

Cheltenham Festival 2017; Tuesday, Day One

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has been decimated by a host of absentees for various reasons with three of the leading market contenders, Moon Racer, Neon Wolf and Movewiththetimes, all missing the festival curtain-raiser for various reasons in the previous week or so. Moon Racer heads to the feature Champion Hurdle on the back of winning both starts in novice company earlier in the season, Movewiththetimes has a niggle and misses Cheltenham in favour of both Aintree or Punchestown (or both) whilst Neon Wolf is likely to be a short-priced favourite for tomorrow’s opening Neptune Novices’ Hurdle over two and a half miles.

That leaves the trio of Melon, Ballyandy and Bunk Off Early at the head of the market and the former as the 11/4 favourite. I’m mad keen to take on the Willie Mullins’ animal, who arrives on the back of winning a Maiden Hurdle over in Ireland at skinny odds and has long been the hype horse from the Clossuton yard this term. The fact that the yard have such a strong recent record in the race, and the fact that the gelding is likely to have Ruby Walsh on board, hints that he should be respected.

However, if he were trained by anyone else other than W P Mullins he would be a double figure price and warrants opposing as the jolly. You need a really battle-hardened animal to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; previous winners Menorah (4), Champagne Fever (4) and Vautour all came with the necessary experience and I think last year’s Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy (1.30) has all the tools to emulate Champagne Fever and do the Bumper/Supreme double.

I was at the Twiston-Davies yard in the run up to the festival and he confessed to be staggered at how the gelding was beaten in each of his first three runs over hurdles. He looked a different proposition when dropping back to the minimum trip to land the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, when relishing returning to a strong gallop. He is likely to get conditions to suit once more and will take all the beating under regular partner Sam Twiston-Davies. I’d give a squeak to Bunk Off Early, the supposed Mullins’ second string, who tanked through the Deloitte at Leopardstown the last day over two and a quarter miles and should likewise appreciate the drop back to two miles.

Altior (2.10) is quite frankly the best horse in training and strolls to success in the Arkle. Nicky Henderson has played down comparisons to the great Sprinter Sacre however, he looks the heir apparent and a clash with Douvan must surely await next season.

I had the pleasure of chatting to Jonjo O’Neill at Huntingdon last Sunday and he was very keen on the chances of Holywell (2.50) in the Ultimate Handicap Chase. The selection has a terrific record in the race, winning the corresponding race in 2014 and second behind the well-handicapped Un Temps Pour Tout with the pair pulling miles clear of the field. The now 10yo is just a pound lower than last year’s mark and should reward each-way support under regular partner Richie McClernon. The Druids Nephew, winner of the race in 2015, and Singlefarmpayment are both likewise well-treated and will likely be thrown into my placepot!

The Champion Hurdle has been described as ‘the worst in recent times’ but that’s an unfair assessment of plenty of second season hurdlers who arrive having just had their first year in open company. The trio of Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir and Buveur D’Air were all smart novices last term, all running well without winning at the festival, and are likely to complete the 1-2-3 in the feature.

Buveur D’Air would need further rain to aid his chance but I can see the argument for Petit Mouchoir, and I’ve had a few quid on at fancier prices earlier in the season. The front-runner has improved for the move to trainer Hendy de Bromhead and is guaranteed to get a soft leader under Bryan Cooper.

Both he and The New One, beaten in the last three renewals, are likely to ensure they go at a good clip and that should set the race up for Alan King’s striking chestnut Yanworth (3.30). The selection has been beaten just twice in his career, both at the Cheltenham Festival, when fourth in the Champion Bumper two years ago and second to Yorkhill last year. He looks a transformed animal this season however, finding an inner steel that looked missing 12 months ago, and is a deserved favourite for the feature 2m Hurdle.

Willie Mullins has an incredible record in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle, helped by superstar Quevega winning the race six years on the spin, and Vroum Vroum Mag making it 8 wins on the bounce for the Closutton handler when scoring impressively for favourite backers last year. She looked below-part last time out at Doncaster when scrambling home when a warm odds-on favourite and has been apparently working poorly at home.

Likewise stablemate Limini, who misses a supposed crack at the Champion in favour of this having beaten Apple’s Jade (4.10) last time out at Punchestown. The latter is 5/1 in a supposed three runner race and, after Gordon Elliott insisted she would come on for the run, looks well-priced to reverse the form.

The Irish have a strong hand in the National Hunt Chase with both A Genie In A Bottle and Edwulf well-supported on the back of leading amateurs Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor being confirmed for leading owners Eddie O’Leary and JP McManus. There are no stand-out staying chasers this season and I’m tempted to chance David Pipe’s Champers On Ice (4.50) at a double-figure price. I was at Warwick to see him chase home Harry Fry’s American in a G2 Novice Chase, when he made eye-catching late headway to go second in the closing stages. The grey was unsuited by the drop back to two and a half miles on Trials’ Day at Cheltenham and is worth another try stepped back up in trip.

Foxtail Hill (5.30) was given to me as Nigel Twiston-Davies’ best chance in Cheltenham’s handicaps and should fill the frame in the finale. The selection won two starts back at Kempton in the most bizarre fashion, jumping markedly out to his left throughout, and did likewise when winning over course and distance last time out. That defeat of Saphir du Rheu looks the strongest on offer and he should go well, along with Venetia Williams’ Burtons Well and Malcolm Jefferson’s Double Ws.

Selections
1.30 Ballyandy and Bunk Off Early
2.10 Altior
2.50 Holywell
3.30 Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir
4.10 Apple’s Jade
4.50 Champers On Ice
5.30 Foxtail Hill