Monday 19 August 2013

Tuesday Racing at Brighton, Yarmouth and Leicester

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Tuesday sees former champion jockey (and for my money the best jockey in the world) Ryan Moore taking in the views and scenery of Great Yarmouth, with four rides for four different trainers. Moore spent his weekend between Arlington and Deauville in Group One races and whilst there is nothing on the card of that calibre, he just loves riding winners. He is by all accounts stable jockey for Sir Michael Stoute and his main reason for going to Yarmouth is to ride Meddling (2.30) in the six furlongs maiden handicap. The filly drops down to six for the first time and given how tamely she has folded over seven furlongs the switch looks likely to suit. Although she disappointed last time out when only fourth the form of both her Salisbury runs looks strong and immediately strikes as having the potential to be much better than a 66 rated filly.


Moore hangs around to ride the infamous George Baker, trained by his namesake and whilst he is sure to be popular I like the look of Azrael (4.30) with Davey Probert in the saddle. His form around the idiosyncratic course is exceptional and the five year old has won twice over the course and distance this year. With the ground likely to be rattling quick as per the norm here, he should have conditions perfect to suit. Muftarres and Jonnie Skull finished first and second in a similar contest last week and re-oppose once more, with the former under a penalty.


Brighton rivals Yarmouth with being such a quirky course that traditionally has ground quicker than Usain Bolt, conditions which should help Sir Mark Prescott’s American bred filly Alzavola (3.45) in the ten furlong handicap. She succeeded on her handicap debut over the same trip at Bath after being set up in maidens in the tried and tested Sir Mark way. She was well backed when running under a penalty at Bath on her last run before failing to stay the trip when tried at a mile and a half for the first time. A return to a mile and a quarter should suit and the stable continue to churn out winners.


Evening racing comes from Leicester and the opening fillies’ maiden looks a good chance for Shilla (5.00) to get off the mark at the second attempt. First season sire Kodiac is enjoying plenty of success and Henry Candy’s filly showed plenty of promise when chasing home Richard Hannon’s 80 rated juvenile Autumn Sunrise at Windsor. The form in behind her looks strong and her main danger looks to be Mick Channon’s colt Kanz, who has to concede 4lb.


Handicap debutante Saffire Song (5.30) has plenty of scope for improvement after showing glimpses of promise whilst never being competitive in much stronger company. The Firebreak filly has achieved her opening mark of 60 through running in strong Newmarket maidens and despite never threatening she could have some wiggle room with her rating. The Alan Bailey string are in good nick, with two winners and two seconds from his last five runners and talented claimer Robert Tart takes off a useful 5lb.


Luca Cumani thrives with his handicappers and his string are in superb order going into York’s Ebor Festival, an omen that will hopefully assist the chances of Don Padeja (6.30) in the mile and a half handicap. The Dansili colt was an eye-catching staying on third when behind a Sir Mark Prescott at Lingfield in a race where Davey Probert’s made a complete hash of it. The winner has gone on to complete a hat-trick and with Andrea Atzeni now in the saddle the three year old promises to have a strong career ahead.


2.30 Yar – Meddling (Nap)
3.45 Bri – Alzavola
4.30 Yar – Azrael
5.00 Lei – Shilla
5.30 Lei - Saffire Song
6.30 Lei – Don Padeja (Nb)


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Sunday 11 August 2013

Monday Racing at Windsor, Ayr and Thirsk

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Ryan Moore is always a significant jockey booking for Jeremy Noseda and the fact he has been jocked up on his Ravens Pass filly in Windsor’s first is a good sign for Merletta (5.40). Owned and bred by Cheveley Park Stud, she was well backed on debut to finish a good sixth at Doncaste and the form looks strong. She will have learnt a lot for the run, given a tentative hands and heels ride by William Buick to stay on in the latter stages.


The exact same connections should be able to make it a double with Regal Silk (7.40) in the ten furlong fillies’ handicap. She was a ready winner of a maiden over course and distance by five lengths, yet sees her mark increase by a solitary pound. She looks a filly going place and this looks the best bet of the day for me.


The combination could make it a treble with Hi Filwah (6.10) five furlong maiden and he is colt who ran well in spite of a poor draw last time out at Wolverhampton. He has form tied in with the likes of Cape of Hope and Floating Along sees the 70 rated colt set a clear standard despite William Haggas’ Sky Garden being respected.


Mark Johnston’s handicap debutante Mu’ajiza (3.30) looks to have been given a reasonable opening mark of 74 and should be able to capitalise running against her older rivals. The Pivotal filly progressed on all three starts in maidens and the run at Ascot in particularly impressive when chasing home a Godolphin filly with lofty entries.


Stablemate Desert Revolution (5.00) was out-paced to finish sixth in a competitive Goodwood handicap over a mile but up in trip on better ground should see him to much better effect. Although bred to be speedy he has shown plenty to suggest that he wants to be running over further when staying on to finish second over nine furlongs on debut and similarly when winning his maiden over a mile.


Little Jimmy Odsox
(4.00) has ran with plenty of credit all summer and finally got his head in front for the first time since last September when making all over six furlong at Redcar. He has been in good heart and the form of his second at Wolverhampton two starts continues to strengthen with winner The Great Gabrial winning at Lingfield on Friday. Providing Duran Fentiman can get across from stall ten the five year old should be able to defy a 4lb rise.


Silvestre De Sousa has ridden Wolverhampton better than most this year and although he has admittedly been given smart types for his bosses at Godolphin but there are very few better at judging the fractions. He’s notched 13 winners from 41 rides in 2013, which have come at a 32% SR. That should aid the chances of Keith Dalgleish’s Black Treacle (2.15) in the five furlong claimer. Drawn in stall six I expect De Sousa to be handy and he should be able to attempt to make all on the gelding who has progressed in all three starts.


You won’t find Mikael Barzalona going to Thirsk too often so that in itself should indicate the chances of Wickhambrook (6.30) in the five furlong maiden. The colt was well backed when second to stable-mate Chord Chart at Wolverhampton over six furlongs and was headed late on so the drop back in trip shouldn’t be a problem and he looks the obvious one to beat.


Brian Ellison has a terrific record getting a horse ready for a coup after a lengthy absence and Ty Gwr (5.20) will be hard to beat in the mile and a half handicap. The four year old hasn’t been seen since being claimed from David Simcock 270 days ago and is very well handicapped from a mark of 70.


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Saturday 10 August 2013

Saturday Racing at Ayr, Haydock, Ascot and Redcar

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Saturday is Shergar Cup Day at Ascot and whilst it is ultimately a team competition there will still be some value around, winners to be had and profit to be made. There’s also the return of Telescope at Haydock and solid cards at Redcar and Newmarket.


All eyes will be on the returning Telescope at Haydock for the Rose of Lancaster Stakes and given the colt was once favourite for The Derby, he will likely to be very warm in the market. He should be able to get the job done here en route to higher honours and it will be up to Noble Mission and David Livingston to battle for minor honours.


The Mark Johnston stable continue to churn out winners and a stereotypical tough and versatile improver is Sennockian Star (2.20) who is seeking his sixth win of the season. His incredible run has seen him rise to a mark of 97 but is clearly thriving and his win at Ascot last time out was his best run to date. The second is a good yard-stick and the third won a competitive Goodwood handicap; with his weight for age allowance he looks difficult to beat.


Over at Ascot Judge ‘n Jury continues to trickle down the handicap and it is surely just a matter of time before the old boy gets his head in front. He was well backed last time out at Ascot when finishing fifth of eighteen in competitive handicap. He has been dropped another 1lb to his lowest mark in over a year and has this dual course and distance winner can build on his already terrific record around the track.


The mile and a half handicap for older horses looks the strongest race on the card and Mark Johnston runs two of his eleven strong string. David Simcock’s Haylaman and Andrew Balding’s Communicator heads the weights however both are well exposed and instead Ed Walker’s Willie Wag Tail looks the pick. The four year old was well backed at Goodwood and York last year in mile and a half handicaps, with the form of his York run working out particularly well. He looked in dire fitness on both starts and that has seen his mark down another 3lb.


Jo’Burg (3.10) runs in the mile handicap at Redcar and is still running with tremendous enthusiasm even at the grand old age of nine. He showed at York that a mile is clearly his trip when chasing home two very well handicapped horses in stable-mate Frog Hollow Sir Michael Stoute’s Altharoos with the pair drawing well clear. The handicapper has dropped him another 1lb to a mark of 84 and given his record around the track (50% Strike Rate over C&D on good ground) he should be able to capitalise.


The final race on Redcar’s card sees a tricky mile and three quarter handicap and Ted Easterby’s locally trained Attansky (5.30) could be worth taking a chance on. He’s shown glimpses of promise in staying handicaps but is yet to have a crack at this trip and the way he travelled over two miles at Thirsk last time out indicated the trip could suit. The three year old has had only eleven career starts and is still relatively unexposed compared to his rivals.


We put up Gowanharry (8.05) when the filly ran two weeks ago at Ayr and she was unlucky to get collared late on and lose by a short head. She runs again over the minimum trip and from a 3lb higher mark and remains competitive. The daughter of Choisir will go on any ground and again has the services of the hottest apprentice in racing; Connor Beasley.



The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Wednesday 7 August 2013

Wednesday Racing at Newcastle, Pontefract, Yarmouth and Kempton

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The going it Newcastle looks to be turning softer by the day and that should play into the strengths of those capable of handling of testing ground, look no further than Harvey’s Hope. Keith Reveley’s dual purpose seven year old goes in the mile and six and a half furlong handicap at 2.40 and is a dual winner on good to soft including a competitive handicap hurdle at Doncaster in January. He was well punted before finishing second last seen at Redcar in April and should be able to defy a 3lb higher mark.


A horse who looks bred to appreciate a bit of give in the ground is Michael Dods’ son of Choisir Cracking Choice. He has been toiling this year in competitive sprints and the handicapper has finally relented revising his mark to a career low of 58. Despite never getting his head in front in fourteen starts he has five seconds and three thirds to his name and this consistent and likeable gelding will be further assisted by the 5lb claim of talented apprentice Connor Beasley.


There’s also racing at Pontefract and a sprint handicapper in the north making his debut at the track is Come on Dave for (4.00) the Dandy Nicholls yard. He normally plies his trade at the likes of Catterick, Redcar and Musselburgh but irrespective of the track he is undoubtedly a much better horse with cut in the ground. His last two wins have come in soft conditions at Redcar and Catterick and running on unsuitable ground this season has seen his mark fall 5lb, he looks well handicapped should he indeed put his best foot forward.


Yarmouth looks to be missing the bulk of the rain for the time being and Bright Glow should appreciate the quick underfoot conditions after winning last week on Lingfield’s turf track, with the going officially firm. The filly is raised 4lb for that but looks to have plenty in hand given her progression since sent handicapping at Kempton on her return. The David Lanigan and Ted Durcan partnership continues to thrive with unexposed three year old handicappers, with thirteen 3-y-o winners at a 20% strike rate so far this season.


A trainer who thrives with similar types is Sir Mark Prescott especially with unexposed three year olds in handicap and in 2013 has had 17 winners from 45 runners at a 38% strike rate. A horse that has let down the team down twice thus far this season is Khotan who should be able to come good at the third attempt after being given a break. He runs in the mile and three quarter handicap at 8.20 and there is frankly no hotter stable with eleven winners from their last twenty one runners.


The third and final selection at Yarmouth is also an unexposed sort from shrewd connections that saw dramatic improvement now handicapping and that is Welsh Moonlight. The filly ran a good second over course and distance behind Green Monkey, and she franked the form by winning at Doncaster on Saturday. George Baker replaces Saleem Golam in the saddle and everything looks in her favour to get off the mark at the fifth attempt.


Kempton Park should remain unaffected by any torrential forecasts and a horse who thrives on the all-weather is Shavanksy who runs in the mile handicap at 6.00. From four starts at the track he has a win and two seconds and is down to a mark of 83, his lowest since May 2012. He carries with him the burden of top weight but the trainer’s son Pat Millman takes off 5lb for this dual course and distance winner and he looks primed to get on the score sheet for the first time this year.


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Monday 5 August 2013

Tuesday Racing at Catterick, Kempton and Ffos Las

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Catterick have an afternoon flat card Tuesday and the 0-60 handicap at 3.15 looks absolutely taylor-made for Gottcher who carries top weight but looks well drawn in stall three. Keith Dalgleish and Joe Fanning have teamed up to have nineteen winners thus far in 2013 and Gottcher ran well on his first start to finish third on his first run for 340 days at Musselburgh two weeks ago and from 1lb lower mark and will be very hard to beat.


In the other sprint handicap at 4.45 the race looks set to go to Dandy Nicholls who has both Tajneed and Majestic Manannan with preference for the latter. Tajneed generally does his winning in lower company and although he has stable jockey Adrian Nicholls on board, Majestic Manannan has a win and a second from his last three starts and remains in good heart.


There is more evening racing at Kempton and Dukes Delight (6.30) should be able to return the money lost on a failed gamble last time out at Lingfield. The gelding was backed like defeat was out of the question on handicap debut and was punted into a 6/4 favourite for the David Lanigan and Ted Durcan combination. He was beaten by a head and a short head, staying on strongly over a mile and a quarter and upped to a mile and a half, he should be able to collect from an unrevised mark.


Jeremy Noseda’s Ocean Sunset (7.00) was a huge eye-catcher on debut at Wolverhampton last month and the colt can build up that initial run when showing greenness throughout. The colt should have no problem with the trip over a mile and three furlongs and the race looks to lack a lot of depth. I’m Fraam Govan is bred for much further whilst Le Grande Cheval, Rancho Montoya and First Warning come from stables that are severely out of form. Noseda has booked Ryan Moore in a move that can be deemed a massive positive.


The longshot of the day comes in the six furlong handicap at 8.30 where Equitania can hopefully take advantage of a tumbling mark. Apprentice Tim Clark takes off a useful 7lb and the filly is at her lowest mark since winning a similar event at Lingfield last year. She was a course and distance winner here off a 4lb higher mark and should get a nice toe into the race drawn in stall four with Roger Varian’s Agerzam will likely to occupy front-running duties. Badr Al Badoor will be a warm favourite courtesy of her last time out course and distance win whilst Ferjaan and Rebel Magic are from in form stables.


Before riding at Kempton Park Champion Jockey Richard Hughes is at Ffos Los for a strong book of rides, not least Soryah for Luca Cumani in the 4.30 over a mile and a half. The filly should suit the step up in trip after winning readily at Epsom on handicap debut but has punished by the handicapper and is up 9lb for her efforts. David Simcock horses are in good nick and as such it could be worth taking her on with Princess Caetani. She has been running well this season despite getting her head in front and in a much weaker race than she has come across thus far, she can upset the apple cart and turn over Cumani filly.


In the penultimate race at 5.00 it would be no surprise to see Tony Carroll’s Tammuz put in a much improved effort now sent handicapping. She’s rated 60 for three average efforts in maidens but stepped up to a mile after her first run of the season should see her come on dramatically. Harbour Captain is seeking the hat-trick and is dangerous should she be able to get a soft lead.




The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Monday's Racing at Ripon, Windsor and Wolverhampton

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Monday means Windsor and the headline grabbing pair of Richard Hughes and Richard Hannon both have live chances and will be aiming to build upon their sumptuous performances at Glorious Goodwood. There is also racing elsewhere at Ripon, Carlisle and Wolverhampton.


The Mark Johnston stable remain in good form with two winners at Glorious Goodwood and the stable have Pacquita in the fillies maiden at 2.15. She looks the part on paper being out of a Grade 1 winner in South America and by the fantastic sire Dubawi. Despite Kevin Ryan’s Sukari Gold it looks like a fairly ordinary maiden and the yard have sent out twenty 2-y-o winner this season already.


Dame Nellie Melba goes for the same connections in the mile and a quarter handicap at 3.15 and she was put up when running at Beverley last month. She ran well in defeat that day but made up for it when beating David Lanigan’s Progenitor at Leicester on her next start. Although up 5lb for that win, her 8lb weight for age pull makes her still very appealing. She will take all the beating and is my best bet of the day.


At Windsor, Hoku (6.30) has proven an expensive filly to follow but she has her excuses and providing she is able to get the rub of the green she can shed her maiden tag at the sixth attempt. She goes over six furlongs again after previously chasing home John Gosden’s well bred filly Dorothy B at Nottingham. We can ignore her run at Lingfield due to her falling out of the stalls and rated 83, she sets a very good standard.


The sprint handicap at 7.00 looks to revolve around recent winners O’ Gorman, School Fees and Bajan Bear, which could leave the Robert Cowell trained Arctic Lynx going under the radar at a tasty price. He was four lengths behind subsequent winner and subsequent Stewards Cup favourite Tropics over course and distance and has run well in all four starts since. He followed a win at Kempton with a second at Yarmouth and a 1lb for those efforts leaves the six year old well handicapped.


African Oil was well backed to win last time out at Bath and can follow up for Charlie Hills in the 7.30. He ran with credit in his first two starts of the season but ran far too free. His gelding operation showed him to be far more settled and his new style of running should ironically give the three year old a new lease of life.


The afternoon card at Wolverhampton sees Bang Tidy return to the scene of his last win here in December and it is interesting that he is stepped up to a mile on his eighth start at the track. He is down the mark from his last win and his form reads rather well with a win and a second to his name. National Hunt jockey Aidan Coleman continues to ride for the yard having his first winner on the flat last month.


The maiden at 5.00 looks to have some very smartly bred fillies including Sugarcraft, Sagresse, Duchess of Seville and Quantify but the stand-out entry is Conserve for Lady Jane Cecil and Tom Queally. She cost 80,000 guineas at the sales and made an eye-catching debut last year when running in a Leicester maiden behind the likes of Lady Nouf and Secret Gesture. The stable are in good form and have an astonishing 33% Strike rate with their 3-y-o’s this season – the filly should go close.


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Friday 2 August 2013

Glorious Goodwood - Friday; Day Four

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In transit back from England so no article today, so obviously there was a few winners in there. Sod's law.


Glorious Goodwood kicks off on Friday with the Group Three Glorious Stakes (1.55) over a mile and a half and although it looks something of a competitive affair it comes down to Masterstroke and Aiken. Masterstroke makes his debut for the Godolphin stable after finishing third behind Solemia and Orfevre in The Arc De Triomphe last year and he looks to be using this as a stepping stone to a busy second half to the season. With Aiken a Non Runner, Masterstroke is an obvious if yet unfashionable selection.


The thoroughbred Stakes (2.30) will see Montiridge be all the rage with Garswood franking the form of his narrow defeat in The Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. He beat Ashdan in a listed contest at Newmarket and warrants maximum respect for the all-conquering team of Hannon and Hughes. That being said Kevin Ryan’s Glory Awaits has the best form in behind Toronado and Dawn Approach. His second in The 2000 Guineas was deemed a fluke but he ran to a similar level in The St James’ Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and down in class should be the one to beat.


The Betfred Mile (3.05) is one of the most competitive handicaps of the season and a race that Mark Johnston has a terrific record in, Fulbright winning for the yard last year. Johnston runs three and the filly Galician looks the strongest of those and has stable jockey Joe Fanning rides. Wentworth, Cape Peron and Stirring Ballad have been the three talking horses for similar contests but have yet to deliver. Haafaguinea has snuck in at the bottom of the weights for Clive Cox and Adam Kirby and there was a lot to like about his seasonal debut at Sandown in April. He won in nice fashion that day and here is another example of the weight for age being crucial with the 3yo’s in receipt of 8lb.


The King George Stakes (3.40) was won last year by wonder-mare Ortensia and Tickled Pink showed she has the potential to emulate her when beating Kingsgate Native at Sandown in resilient fashion. I’m far more interested in Smoothtalkirascal however who has been a revelation since joining David O’Meara and was a narrow second in The Dash at Epsom. He has continued an upward progression since his first start for the yard in April and is yet to finish out of the first three. Should he continue on the same route he looks set to be in the frame again.


The nursery at 4.15 looks open and full of northern raiders with two for Mark Johnston , Kevin Ryan and Richard Fahey. Richard Hannon has three with Richard Hughes siding with Speed The Plough but the one I fancy is Grecian who ran well in defeat at Ascot last time out building on his maiden win at Kempton. The Dark Angel colt looks to be going the right way for a stable that have a 23% strike rate with their 2yo’s so far this season.


Pavlosk never went a yard in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but the filly showed in her previous two starts at Newbury and York that she has a lot of class. The drop down to seven furlongs for the fillies’ Group Three at 4.50 should be to her benefit as should any forecast rain. Winning Express looks to be the danger who was behind Sky Lantern and Just The Judge in the Guineas at Newmarket and is respected.


Goodwood 1.55 - Masterstroke
Goodwood 2.30 - Glory Awaits
Goodwood 3.05 - Haafaguineas
Goodwood 3.40 - Smoothtalkinrascal
Goodwood 4.15 - Grecian
Goodwood 5.25 - Pavlosk


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports