The Deutsche Bank Championship

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The Deutsche Bank at TPC Boston is the second of four Fedex Cup playoffs, and just like The Barclays; the big boys are out in force. The crème de la crème are out in rural Massachusetts, with Woods, McIlroy, Mickleson, Donald and Westwood being the big five out to take the overall $10 million FedEx cup, and a win would cement any of them towards the top of the standings. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy share joint favouritism, but neither have any sort of value at around the 10/1 mark, although out of the two, Woods would be the preferred option, the course having a history of favouring the big hitters. That would bring in to play the hardest ball strikers with Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson. Both are reasonably priced at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively, and given the course is a Par 72; four Par 5’s, and a drivable Par 4 , they are going to be a constant threat, with plenty of scoring chances.

When compiling an original shortlist, I used statistics involving previous course form, tournament form, records this season including green in regulation, strokes gained per round and putting. That gave me a shortlist of twenty five runners. Some of those who crept on the list are the following.

Starting with a man who ticked every box; Luke Donald. The man is a model of consistency, and it would be no surprise to see him lift the trophy. He finished tied third here last year, and quietly crept into tied tenth place last week. He is solid as you like on both the before mentioned stats, and is ‘Mr Reliable’. People who are in similar moulds to him with regards to style, consistency and overall game are Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson, who are all reasonably priced at 45/1, 50/1 and 60/1 respectively. All have solid short games, and are strong tee to green. Whether they have the ability to win a tournament of this depth is questionable, but they are all proven thoroughbreds on The PGA Tour and warrant respect, possibly overpriced due toe the strength at the head of the market.

Phil Mickleson is always a threat, given he can seemingly turn it on like a tap; much is his maverick make up. He and Steve Stricker are the two dark horses, who are yet to hit form this season, and if showed glimpses, could be fancied for next week at The BMW Championship, but neither is in the greatest nick thus far. The flip side of that, and the form guys are the moment, are Nick Watney who won last week, Brandt Snedeker, who was second, and consistent all week, and to a lesser extent Keegan Bradley, twice a winner on tour this season and Bo Van Pelt, who was seventh last week, and had a stronger final three rounds than anyone else last week.

At the prohibitively bigger odds, the two stand outs would be Ryan Palmer and Robert Garrigus, both of whom can be backed at 100/1. Palmer ticks a lot of the criteria mentioned at the start. Palmer’s form was extremely consistent coming into the summer, and his form reads 4-MC-9-5-3-15-MC-19-MC-24. If he starts well, he is usually there or thereabouts, and will likely outperform his odds due to his unflashy nature.

A strong field and unfortunately no bookmakers have decided to dangle the carrot of six places in our way, but there is plenty of each way value around for the shrewdies amongst us.

Luke Donald is the obvious to start with, and his record this year is exemplary, it really does stagger, how he can play at such a high level so often and so consistently. He has played 14 events on the PGA Tour this season, missing only one cut, and has 7 top 10 finishes. He is in the top 10 one in every two tournaments played, that stat alone is incredible. He showed glimpses of his best last week, and is sure to go close. Hopefully he creeps under the radar amongst the big hitters, and we get an even bigger price for him.

Speaking of big hitters, this course should make Bubba Watson purr like someone being tickled in all the right places, and much like Donald, crept into contention late on to finish T10 last week. He could be hitting form at the right time, and is yet to finish worse than T23 in his last five tournaments, and on a course like this, which will suit him no end, he has to be respected.

Brandt Snedeker has been in red hot form lately, a solid top 25 followed by finishing a solid second last week, despite a slow start, He is in rattling form, and his putting could compensate for not having the distance on the tee. The top putter on tour, who has been solid all year, and ranked second in FedEx Cup points. He has only missed one cut all year, in The USPGA, and that aside, he is another one of the field’s consistent yard-sticks.

Zach Johnson caught my eye when compiling the stats and shortlist, as he hit more of the criteria than most, yet is priced way down the list at 60/1. He is not a 60/1 shot. Six times in the top ten so far this season and two wins to his name, going low to win both The Crowne Plaza and The John Deere Classic. Given his season thus far, his scoring average and driving accuracy are both in the Top 25 on tour, and currently the sixth best player ranked on tour, statistically speaking. His second round scuppered his chances last week, but still grafted out a T38 finish.

Luke Donald 1.5pt Ew @ 16/1 (Across)
Bubba Watson 1.5pt Ew @ 25/1 (Across)
Brandt Snedeker 1pt Ew @ 25/1 (Across)
Zach Johnson 0.5pt Ew @ 60/1 (Across)


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Ante Post Focus; September and October

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After the success of Ortensia, the ante portfolio has a bit of a cushion, and there is only one thing to do, obviously reinvest the profits, albeit with the aim of doing so wisely. After last Friday’s success, there is no doubt in my mind, that the Aussie mare ORTENSIA is absolutely different gravy to the current crop of sprinters assembled in a division dominated by those from down under. William Buick commented in his At The Races blog that she takes a while to get going, and compared her to a ‘Bougatti’ the way the she goes through the gears. The fact she gradually gets going and gets better and better, the step up to six furlongs should rightfully suit. She would have won by further if not for a number of factors that only proceeded to hinder her. The ground had turned out softer than ideal and she should prove to be even better on a sounder, quicker surface. What wasn’t picked up either is that when David Allan took the hood off his mount Confessional, it was thrown at and subsequently spooked Ortensia. As such, it took her even longer to get going. The fact she came through this when so many things going against her, the pace, the spooking, the ground, yet she still came through shows the heart of her. She got a blinding ride from William Buick, who is one of the most tactically astute jocks going at the minute, and booked to ride her around Haydock, she should complete an impressive treble at Goodwood, York and Haydock, and cement wins in three counties in England and three continents for the globetrotting mare. If it goes really soft, Mayson and to a lesser extend Society Rock have to be considered, but it would have to be something of a bog for me to turn away from this absolute superstar.

The week after that, we are hopefully sitting on a nice profit and can watch The Ladbrokes St Leger safe in the knowledge that profit is already wrapped up thanks to the superstar mare. We go across The Pennines to Doncaster for the last classic of the year, and although Camelot is the deserved ante post favourite after his wins in The 2000 Guineas and English and Irish Derby’s respectively, we have to take him on. He is looking to be the first horse since Nijinsky in 1970 to win that elusive triple crown for Coolmore and Ballydoyle, and become one of only fourteen other horses to achieve the feat. He is currently best priced 4/9, but he looks very fragile running over this type of trip, and the form of his wins have worked out shockingly thus far. Camelot’s defeated rivals have since run 77 times since, with only 8 wins and a further twelve places. Talwar, Akeed Mofeed (Listed), Power (G1), Thought Worthy (G2), Trumpet Major (G3) are the only horses victorious since losing to the colt. To say the form has been let down, would be an understatement. There are three highly progressive three year old colts who I would seek to take him on with.

The first one is MICHELANGELO, who came to his debut with a very high reputation for the John Gosden stable. He ran a good third on debut, and the fact he was running in listed company in his first run spoke volumes. He followed that with a win over good benchmark Expense Claim, and then was even more impressive when winning the Tattersall’s Millions 3yo trophy at Newmarket, beating subsequent black type winner Cameron Highland in impressive fashion. Stepped up to a mile and a half in The Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, he was far from disgraced finishing third, never really travelling, but staying on towards the finish, eventually beaten by three lengths. He is still learning and developing, and on a flatter, more galloping track such as Doncaster, may improve him further. At his current price of 16/1, he is likely to go off much shorter, and considering this has been his target since the start of the season, there is no better trainer at preparing a horse for the St Leger than John Gosden. He does have Thought Worthy, Shantarm and Great Heavens at his disposable, but Michelangelo looks the one most open to improvement, and is almost certain to run, barring injury.

The other two fancies are more speculative, but both have looked very impressive in decent company. THOMAS CHIPPENDALE looked tremendous when winning at Royal Ascot over a mile and a half, beating subsequent winners Thought Worthy and Noble Mission, who went on to win at Goodwood and York respectively. He won coming away that day, and therefore disappointed when running at York, however excuses could be made. He wasn’t helped by the slow pace and never really settled under Paul Hanagan, who was very patient and gave the colt an easy race. The pace of a St Leger is usually extreme, watching back last year’s renewal; they set some incredible fractions, and made it a real test. He should benefit from that sort of gallop, and providing he settles better, he could run outrun his current odds, and fulfil the promise he demonstrated during his win at Royal Ascot.

Another protagonist is GUARANTEE who I tipped up and backed on Saturday at York, and whilst I expected him to win, I didn’t expect a performance quite as scintillating as he put in. Under a very confident ride from Phillip Makin, he cruised up around the outside, and kept on strongly, to win well, and with some very smart horses in behind. He has work to do against classier rivals with arguably stronger form, but is very unexposed for respected connections. William Haggas has a 67% strike rate running horses in classics, and if he says the colt is good enough, that is a big thumbs up, and he is only going to shorten further closer to the day.

Moving onto The Arc, there was news this weekend that the Japanese Triple Crown winner flies over next week in a bid to have a tilt at Longchamp glory. ORFEVRE comes with a lofty reputation, and with good reason, his record is quite outstanding. The four year old has won seven of his last nine starts, including bowing out for Europe with a Group 1 over a mile and three furlongs back in June. Japanese runners have a solid record in The Arc; seconds in recent years from El Condor Pasa and Buena Vista, and third from Deep Impact; they are itching closer to having a winner, and this boy could hold the key. He is due to have a prep in the Prix Vermaille, with Christophe Soumillion already booked. Confidence is high, and he looks to have the class, pedigree and form in the book to prove a lively contender for Japan.

Although trends wise the race favours three and four year old cotls, the manner of the five year old filly SNOW FAIRY’s comeback run to win the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville two weeks ago showed how much ability this mare has retained. She has been laid out for an autumn campaign by trainer Ed Dunlop, and although her best runs have come over a mile and a quarter, with wins in Sha Tin and Kyoto in Hong Kong last season, she is a dual Oaks winner, and should stay. The mare gets on exceptionally well with Ryan Moore, if he were on board, his big race pedigree is second to none, not to mention she has never lost with the former champion jockey aboard her. Her form in general has been exceptional, and since winning The Oaks in June 2010, it reads 1124114223311 – all in Group 1 company. Her only defeats have come behind Midday, So You Think, Cirrus Des Aigles, and Danedream, all multiple group one winning animals. She has never been defeated further than five lengths and finished third in the race last year under Frankie Dettori. Being a year old tougher, and more importantly, fresher, with an autumn campaign, she will likely run in The Irish Champion Stakes before heading to Longchamp, and she should be spot on and cherry ripe for the day.


Haydock Sprint Cup

Ortensia 5pt Win @ 3/1 (Across)

St Leger

Michelangelo 2pts Win @ 16/1 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, and Coral
Guarantee 0.5pt Win @ 25/1 Boylesports, Stan James, Bodog
Thomas Chippendale 0.5pt Win @ 33/1 Boylesports, BetVictor, Stan James

Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe

Orfevre 1pt Win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Snow Fairy 0.5pt Win @ 25/1 Sportingbet


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

York's Ebor Meeting: Saturday - Day Four

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Regardless and irrespective of what happens on the final day of York’s Ebor meeting, it will go down as wholeheartedly an outstanding success. Some battling handicappers, exciting two year olds, and most memorably and perhaps historically, the manner of Frankel’s demolition job will live with me and no doubt others for a good while past the hysteria and hoopla.

They really do go out with a bang on Saturday, with another stellar card, and a nice shapely mix to it and the 2.00 is The City of York Listed Stakes, which has an open field for the twelve runners. Dimension and Eton Forever have been trading blows and running well off high in weights in good handicaps, and they are obviously respected. I have gone on all week however about how valuable the course specialists as we’ve seen already with how well that man Fallon rides around here. SMARTY SOCKS is a three time course winner, and has an unbelievable record of 10 wins from 31 runs at seven furlongs. Running at York over seven furlongs on four occasions has brought three successes and a third place finish in a competitive nineteen runner handicap. He goes for an in form stable at one of their favourite venues, and looks massively overpriced at around 16/1.

I have done an in depth thorough look at the Melrose Handicap, which will be found elsewhere on the site, but here is the synopsis.

http://jjmsports.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-betfred-melrose-handicap-york-230.html

The two I expect to be fighting out the finish are the two unexposed colts of BIOGRAPHER and GUARANTEE, with the latter just edging it. Biographer has been hinting that a mile and three quarters could be his optimum trip, but the manner of Guarantee’s maiden and handicap wins are still etched in my memory. I backed him for his maiden win, and he was green and struggled until the last furlong and a half when really motoring late on. He made a mockery of his opening mark, dotting up by four lengths, and although incurring an 8lb rise, he is going the right way, and will have outstanding claims if fulfilling potential.

The Lonsdale Cup looks like a decent renewal, and Saddlers Rock is respected due to the manner in which he won the Goodwood equivalent under a good ride from JP Murtagh. However at the prices I am inclined to oppose him and instead fancy CAVALRYMAN, whom I backed when winning at Sandown Park, in very impressive fashion. Frankie Dettori won this race last year on Opinion Poll, and the manner of his course win over a mile and three quarters back in June was shows the old boy is in good nick. He comes here back in form, and in good heart, and with him being around the 5/1 mark, he looks an each way to nothing.

I have backed three runners ante post in The Ebor, and all have got in, I still like all three, and would rather back a few in a race like this, on the day it will be best odds guaranteed, and favourites have a shocking record. Motivado is well in, but you need a lot of luck to win a race like this.

The Ebor is seen as the prize race, and whereas I for instance have had better luck in The Nunthorpe and The Yorkshire Oaks in previous years, this is the one for the casual punter on a Saturday afternoon, with an expected crowd of 60,000 – Royal Ascot combined with northern charm. The first horse that I like, given his tremendous form around The Knavesmire is CRACKENTORP for local connections, trained by Tim Easterby. He has run four times so far this season, form figures of 3-1-2-9. Game and gutsy, second in The Northumberland Plate on the back of a good win over a mile and half in an apprentice handicap at York. He won well, and went on to give a game account in The Plate, in atrocious conditions. He fluffed next time out, but I think the race came too soon, and freshened up with a break, with his stable, and his record around York (2390011319), he can bounce back.

HURRICANE HIGGINS is another who makes the shortlist based on his win at Goodwood last week, winning well over two and a half miles. He saw the trip out well, but going back through his form, he was beaten only six lengths by subsequent St Leger winner Masked Marvel, and six lengths by Namibian and Fiorente in last years Gordon Stakes. His form seems to rely on good ground, and with conditions expected to suit, he will run with a 4lb penalty, and will effectively be 5lb well in. Based on the form his run over The Ebor trip at Newmarket in May, he could be very well handicapped, with that race in particular working out very well.

TOMINATOR has been feeling his way back into the season, and through being basically tailed off in The Chester Cup, and then beaten ten lengths in a Haydock handicap, he has returned to the mark of 97, which should give him a chance. A ready winner of The Northumberland Plate last year, the trainer Reg Hollinshead has said all this horse wants is a trip of a mile and three quarters at a strong pace on good ground. He should get all three in The Ebor, and with money already being thrown around for the animal, and fresh off a break, he has to go on the shortlist, even if only precautionary and as a saver.

COSMIC CHATTER put his Royal Ascot run behind him when winning a conditions stakes at Musselburgh nicely. I tipped him up and backed him at Royal Ascot, and such was the nature of the race, he was never able to get into it. He beat Liber last time out, who ran on well to finish fourth in The Yearling Stakes at York on Thursday, and he looks to be the one to beat in The Roses Stakes, which looks to be a good listed race for two year olds.

If we still haven’t had a winner, and judging by the seconditis that has plagued me all week that may be the case, we will keep chipping away and take two in the 4.50, both of whom won comfortably when making their first foray into handicaps. MEDICOE was impressive enough in maidens, without being really tested, and was well backed on his debut, going off the 4/6 favourite, winning cosily enough without being severely tested. Only 1lb up for that win, he still has plenty in hand, and looks well treated. As does SALUTATION for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning, who has a similar profile, who won a Newcastle handicap by two lengths over the same trip. Up 6lb may not hold him back, and he looks the pick of the yards three runners.

The swansong sees a ‘Champion Apprentice’ race, which seemingly now happens at the end of these big festivals, giving the kids a chance to shine. A muddling race where SIR MAXIMILIAN stands out head and shoulders above the rest. The gelding broke his maiden tag at the fourth attempt and on his first run in handicaps ran well over six furlongs, tiring late on, and losing second in the last fifty yards. Dropping back down to five should suit, and he goes for a yard in really good nick, as seen with Snow Fairy’s win last Sunday in France.

2.00 York – Smarty Socks
2.30 York – Guarantee & Biographer
3.05 York – Cavalryman
3.40 York – Crackentorp, Tominator & Hurricane Higgins
4.15 York – Cosmic Chatter
4.50 York – Medicoe & Salutation


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

The Betfred Melrose Handicap; York 2.30

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The 2.30 at York on Ebor day is an absolute crackerjack of a race, and the very fact there are only three geldings, as opposed to thirteen colts shows that there is a lot of untapped talent, with the calibre of unexposed possible group horses being potentially extremely good.

Gospel Choir heads the weights running off 98, and is up 8lb for a defeat of Sir Graham Wade last time out at Haydock, who is dealt a similarly 4lb hike, and 17lb overall for his last three runs. Gospel Choir received what I like to call ‘the Ryan Moore treatment’ last time out to win, and the rise seems steep. Similarly with Sir Graham Wade, the handicapper seems to have now caught up with Mark Johnston’s charge.

Guarantee has only three runs to his name, stepping up from a second on debut to win a mile and a half maiden and a handicap in similarly facile manner and the step up to a mile and six furlongs should suit the Authorized colt. The step up should similarly help Biographer for David Lanigan and Ted Durcan, who will be looking to make amends for Main Sequence’s narrow defeat in The Great Voltigeur. He stayed on well over a mile and five furlongs to come home strongly and finish second at Lingfield, and was game late on to win over a mile and half at Ffos Las, commanding late on to win well. Up 7lb, he could still be a threat.

Gabrial the Great, Rule Book and Beyond Conceit are all colts with inconsistent form this year, although have shown glimpses. Gabrial The Great loves the soft ground, Rule Book looks to be have weighted to high heavens, similarly Beyond Conceit, who was last seen chasing home Suraj before he flopped at York.

Monshak is an unexposed sort for Sir Michael Stoute, and the Monsun filly won well over the trip at Chester last time out, but the fact she has raced exclusively on heavy ground shows that she is a precocious filly. As is Ace of Valhalla for Sir Henry Cecil, who is doubtful to even run, but would not like the good going.

Cardinal Walter is a Cape Cross colt for Mrs Fitri Hay and the in form David Simcock stable, and is up 2lb for giving Sir Graham Wade 4lb at Goodwood, and is now weighted to reverse the placings. That could still give him work to do, although he did stay on to take third, and the step up in trip should suit. As it should with Future Security for Godolphin and SDS in the plate, who stayed on well to win over the extended 10 furlongs last time out at Bath. That was his first run of the season, and the Dalakhani colt is entitled to come on for the run, he is a potential sleeper. Gabrial’s Star is like many in terms of trying the mile and three quarters for the first time, stepping down from previously being upped to two miles last time out, but a 9lb rise for a second place finish, seems harsher than harsh.

Mysterious Man shed the maiden tag at the fifth attempt and an opening mark of 83 seems plenty stiff against horses with are less exposed and have stronger possibilities. Courtesy Call has been on the go since March, and although coming into a rich vein of form lately in lesser company, a long season and up 24lb since his run of 11211 back in May, looks to have seen the weights catch up with him, in the same manner that the Christmas and New Year period does with my waistline.

Cockney Sparrow was last seen finishing sixth in the soft ground at Chester in The Cheshire Oaks, and that form has worked out beyond dire, and a mark of 81 looks daylight robbery. As are the marks for the three at the bottom of the weights in Daneking, Choisan and Flashman, who have form patchier than a tramps satchel, and are up against it against some potential and eventual group winners towards the top of the weights.

So there we have it, a field of eighteen, seventeen if Ace of Valhalla turns up, an excellent race, and some potential Ebor horses in there for next year. Gospel Choir is the favourite on merit, completing the hatrick last time out, but yet another hike could have finally got to him, and he was fortunate to get Ryan Moore on him when he is in ‘will not die’ frame of mind. Sir Graham Wade chased him home, and has been raised, and Cardinal Water chased him home prior at Goodwood, although he is the most lightly treated at the weights. Gospel Choir’s stablemate Monshak would need the rain to come, and for it to come as should Gabrial the Great, Rule Book and Ace of Valhalla. Andrew Balding’s Mysterious Man and Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Cockney Sparrow are still lumbered with stiff opening marks and Daneking, Choisan and Flashman towards the bottom of the pile are up against much classier and stoutly bred rivals. Future Security has a lot more potential than he has yet to show, and he could be a massive dark horses, but the fact L Dettori isn’t in the plate is a head scratcher.

The two I expect to be fighting out the finish are the two unexposed colts of BIOGRAPHER and GUARANTEE, with the latter just edging it. Biographer has been hinting that a mile and three quarters could be his optimum trip, but the manner of Guarantee’s maiden and handicap wins are still etched in my memory. I backed him for his maiden win, and he was green and struggled until the last furlong and a half when really motoring late on. He made a mockery of his opening mark, dotting up by four lengths, and although incurring an 8lb rise, he is going the right way, and will have outstanding claims if fulfilling potential.

1. Guarantee
2. Biographer
3. Cardinal Walter
4. Gospel Choir


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

York’s Ebor Meeting – Day Three

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York Day Three, still on the mend, and hopefully Newfangled is too, a filly full of promise, which was a horrible sight yesterday, and hopefully something that isn’t replicated throughout the rest of the meeting.

The opening handicap is a twenty runner affair over a mile and a half. Silver Lime will no doubt head the market, and is unexposed with only four runs to his names, two wins and a handy mark. That being said, I’m not the biggest fan of Roger Charlton horses, and another unexposed colt is MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT for Sir Michael Stoute and Neil Callan on board. The three year old won a good maiden over a mile at Sandown last year that is shaping up to look tasty, and his two handicap performances so far can be excused on soft ground. Third last time out at Chester on very soft, on better ground and on a more straightforward course like York, he should have more to offer and on a mark of 88, can exploit it here.

HEAVY METAL is the stereotypical Mark Johnston two year old colt. Gutsy as you like, versatile and more importantly, extremely tough. He runs in The Gimcrack after a good win at Glorious Goodwood when making all under Joe Fanning under a canny ride in The Richmond Stakes. He faces his toughest task here, and gives the field 3lb, but the stable are in good heart, and at the prices, he is extremely strong value at around the 6/1 mark.

The Strensall Stakes is a tough Group 3, and has no obvious clear cut favourite, but similarly no obvious rags, a solid all round field. Tales of Grimm has been tipped and backed by me on her last two runs, and I have to finally desert him, being the lowest rated at 99, he has too much ground to make up, and looks trip-less. Dubai Prince is top rated, but is still not at the form he showed as a two year old. The likes of Questioning, Fury, Side Glance and Barefoot Lady are all very exposed, and contrary to that, TAZAHUM was mightily impressive for Paul Hanagan and Sir Michael Stoute when running last time out at Newmarket. Four wins and two seconds from eleven career starts, he has flirted with group class before, form figures of 5246. This may prove to be his optimum trip however, after showing to stay on well last time out over a mile, and untried at the unique trip of nine furlongs may just prove to unlock the key to this quirky four year old.

I have been waiting for ORTENSIA to run for a while, and have got a pretty looking ticket at 6/1 winking at me every time I check it. She is a very likable mare, with group wins on three continents, the key to her is good ground, and although a brief shower on Thursday, as long as it continues to be relatively dry and good ground, I think she will absolutely bolt up. She showed her class last time out at Goodwood, beating a really strong field by two lengths, and winning hard held. Her form behind Black Caviar and other in Australia stacks up, and although Bated Breath and Pearl Secret are respected, this should be one for our friends down under.

BRIGHT STRIKE is a George Strawbridge home-bred, and looks on paper the type the John Gosden yard has excelled with this season so far. Third of fourteen in a good Newmarket maiden, he ran on towards the finish without given an overtly hard time by William Buick, and should come on from his first foray into racing. Three winners have come out of the field’s next nine runners, and with a cracking pedigree, being related to several winners, and notable group one entries, he ticks every box you like.

THE TAJ carries top weight in the last race of the day, a seven furlong nursery, and was given a poor ride, finishing second last time out and given too much to do that day, and it is a massive positive that Paul Hanagan steps back on board this filly. The form of that Haydock nursery has worked out rather well, with Mandy Layla winning next time out and Barracouda Boy running a strong race at York on Thursday before being bumped late on. She has form at group level, and sets a decent benchmark for these to meet.

2.00 York – Martin Chuzzlewit
2.30 York – Heavy Metal
3.05 York – Tazahum
3.40 York – Ortensia (Nap)
4.15 York – Bright Strike
4.50 York – The Taj


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes - Friday at York

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The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is the highlight of Friday’s card, and has a maximum field of twenty runners battling for the £140,000 first prize, in what is truly an international field. Four runners from Ireland and one from down under have come to compete, and whilst an international feel, Yorkshire are incredibly well represented, accounting for more than half of the home runners. Unfortunately, they have a poor record, with the exception of Bordelescott, there has only been two winners for ‘Gods Country’ in the last fifteen years, both of whom were trained by Dandy Nicholls, who doesn’t have a runner.

Although Sole Power was a 100/1 winner two years ago, he was still an unbeaten colt, and it was more of a shock that he could step up from an unknown quantity, as opposed to running so badly and suddenly turning it on. Kingsgate Native returned from firing blanks in the covering shed to finish fourth last year, but looks nowhere near the force of old from winning this race in 2007, and has not won since May 2010. Although Bogart won at the meeting last year, his form has dipped this year, and was disappointing when finishing last in The Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Humidor, has only placed in one start from six so far this season, and despite running at group level on his last two runs, is still way off the class required for even placing at this grade.

The Irish sprint division as a whole seems to be lacking, and nothing strikes as being a real out and out challenger. Nocturnal Affair, Sole Power, Dandy Boy and Invincible Ash have patchy form this year, and although Sole Power has been running consistently, he has room to make up on horses he has finished behind this season in Bated Breath and Ortensia. As does Confessional for Ted Easterby, Beyond Desire for Roger Varian and Angels Will Fall, who does gets a weight concession being a three year old filly, but rated 104, she has work to do.

There are some horses thrown in here for reasoning that only the owners will know, presumably a jolly up in the Champagne Lounge. Secret Witness is rated 105 and is a hardened handicapper, and has placed once in Group 3 company, that being his highest achievement. Hamish McGonagall and Monsieur Joe are old sparring partners in northern listed races, and both have a victory in that level to their name thus far this season, and could have place claims if getting the run of the race up front.

Spirit Quartz is a four year old gelded son of Invincible Spirit, and has shown consistent form this season. Fifth in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, and placed in races behind Bated Breath and Ortensia, he is improving and could spring something of an upset. Masamah is rated 1lb higher, and was behind Spirit Quartz and Ortensia, provided he can step up, he is also a contender. Tangerine Trees won the Prix De L’Abbaye last year in something of a blanket finish, but rated 115, is a classy sprinter. The seven year old has been finding his feet so far this year, but like most of these sprinters seemingly in the line up, was behind Ortensia and Bated Breath in the Group 2’s at Haydock and Goodwood. Tiddliwinks won The Duke of York Stakes over six furlongs, and finished seventh in this race last year. Although a perennial bridesmaid at the top level that is usually at six furlongs, and his record over five reads 7105 and his only win was in a conditions race.

The big three that head the market are Bated Breath, Ortensia and Pearl Secret, and without overly stating the obvious, the race pivots around those three. Bated Breath is a horse that needs good ground, and Rogers Charlton’s charge should get perfect conditions, and although a multiple group winner, he has been unlucky at the top level. His form in Group One sprints reads 529222, and he has run behind horses such as Dream Ahead, Regally Ready and Little Bridge, some decent animals. Rated 118, he is the leading player, and should run close.

Pearl Secret is an unbeaten three year old colt, and trainer David Barron has gone on record saying that the chestnut colt is the best horse he has ever trained, quite lofty praise indeed. He is taking a massive step up from winning listed races at odds on though, and given his form and action, he looks like a horse who appreciates cut in the ground. He is a twice course and distance winner however, and is fiercely respected.

Save the best ‘til last; the Aussie mare ORTENSIA looks to have the added touch of class in this field, and the seven year old mare came good last time out at Goodwood, trouncing the field in style, with a good deal in hand than the two length winning margin suggested. She gave the field 4lb that day, and will be running with 3lb in her favour come Friday, and she sets the standard, being a multiple Group One winner herself. She has been running Black Caviar to 5 lengths in Australia, and can be excused her runs at Ascot and Newmarket on ground less than ideal. The quicker it is, the quicker she will run, and having already beaten almost half of this field last time out, they shouldn’t be a bother with weights reversed. Bated Breath should run her close with ground to his liking, but he will have to settle for another second place rosette, with the progressive Spirit Quartz my idea of bronze.

1, Ortensia
2. Bated Breath
3. Spirit Quartz

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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JJMSports Feature - Thursday, 3.05 at York

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The 3.05 at York may not be the flashiest on a card that includes The Lowther Stakes and The Yorkshire Oaks, but from a punting point of view, it is potentially the best race on an exquisite card. A twenty runner handicap over York’s infamous mile, a decent kitty has brought out a fair few100+ rated horses, and it looks a field of class.

The trainer who has enjoyed August like no other is Mark Johnston, and he goes mob handed at this race, with three runners. Stable jockey Joe Fanning opts for Switzerland, running with a 6lb penalty, Crown Counsel runs after a good second at Ayr last time out with Luke Morris on board, and Nicky Mackay takes the leg up on Lady Macduff. It could be folly to rule out, but none looks like being major players.

There are a further number of horses who are running out of the handicap, or due to be lowered a few pounds. In one of these big fields’ handicaps you need everything to go your way, and as such, can’t let any advantage slip, that for my money would rule out Al Muheer, Santefisio, Diamondhead and Strictly Silver.

Unlike Cheltenham, and national hunt horses in general, you rarely see horses go from festival to festival year in year out and run well, and I couldn’t conceivably see the horses that were down the field in the race last time do well, let alone the winner. Navajo Chief. He won this last year, but has had patchy form this year, his only win coming over nine furlongs here on soft ground. Up 2lb and a year older, his time may have gone again lesser exposed rivals. Similarly Invisible Man and Vainglory, who were both down the field last year behind the six year old.

That’s cut the field by half; that seemed pretty simple, wonder if the latter half will be just as simple? I doubt it.

As mentioned at the top of the article, those at the head of the weights are more likely to be the ones to be fighting out the finish, such is the competitiveness of the race, and the quality of the field, you need a bit of class to win this. Postscript won over a mile at Haydock in May and August, but is up 12lb now for those two wins, and the handicapper seems to have caught up with him. Indian Jack seems to be in the same mould, and is still on his way down to a workable mark, having not won since September last year, although the Cumani stable are in good nick. Trade Storm ran a good race in The Shergar Cup, finishing second behind Boom and Bust, but has got himself a 4lb rise for those troubles and that has likely scuppered his chances. Imperial Djay won two quick handicaps at Chester in May and June, but copped an 8lb rise for that, and is still working those pounds off, so to speak, for the Ruth Carr team.

Sandagiyr was a listed winner for Andre Fabre in France before going to Meydan, winning a Group 3, when the stable’s supposed third string, and managed to sneak home under Sylvester De Sousa. On his comeback run since then however he finished beaten twenty lengths in a German Group 2, and there are arguably more questions than answers surrounding him. Lord Aeryn is an interesting runner for Richard Fahey, winning a competitive affair last time out at Thirsk, and not overly penalised, only receiving a 2lb rise for his short head victory margin.

The remaining four will probably hold the majority of answers, with Excellent Guest being fancied in his last two runs at Ascot and Goodwood in similar contests. Going off 8/1 2f last time out at Goodwood, he was beaten by just under three lengths, finishing fifth of twenty runners to the well backed and seemingly well in Mark Johnston trained Fulbright, and given his form and consistency, he has strong plain claims. As does Prince of Johanne, a classy animal rated 105, who has dropped down to a mile this year after running over (and winning) decent events last year, his highlight and claim to fame winning The Cesarewitch last year. Dropping back to a mile, lost by a nose to Fury over course and distance off 98, and then won The Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Fifth in a listed race at Pontefract, and beaten five lengths behind Excellent Guest in The Betfred Mile, he should be a leading player, although a 7lb rise since his run over course and distance in may scupper him.

Aneriego is coming back after two course and distance victories for the David O’ Meara yard and the four year old possesses a very progressive profile. A well bred son of Invincible Spirit, he lost his way and came to the stable from Dermot Weld at the start of the season, and has been revitalised. Form figures of 4725211 suggest he is getting better, and although a 13lb rise, may still be unexposed. Kahruman has been well backed already, and he could be the stereotypical group horse hiding in an open handicap field. The William Haggas Mr Greeley colt was thrown in at the deep end after winning a Kempton maiden and wasn’t disgraced finishing fourth in a good looking race, before a game sixth of twenty nine in The Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Quite the conundrum then eh? Four year old’s have had a cracking record in the race, as seen with Navajo Chief last year, and they will hold the answers here again. Postscript, Indian Jack and Sandagiyr are all unexposed, and if the money were to come, they would be worth another look. Kahruman is off the same ilk, but given the connections of Sheikh Hamdan, Haggas and Hanagan, will likely be punted into next week. Given how well that man Fallon rides around The Knavesmire, and the two facile course and distance winner Anderiego won around here, he looks the one to side with. Up 13lb, but with a shrewd stable, and won with plenty up his sleeve, eased down, he could have upwards of 7lb in hand for my money, and with the pace up front in abundance, he will likely have the race set up for him.


1. Anderiego
2. Kahruman
3. Lord Aeryn
4. Prince of Johanne


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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York's Ebor Festival - Day Two - Let’s hear if for the girls!

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York will be in full swing after the first day, and the second holds no let up. There are a few ‘shorties’ on offer, so depending how down the kitty is after day one, and dependant on the size of your grapefruits, there may be a few ‘make or break’ races with Newfangled, The Fugue and Main Sequence looking like going off very short, and could make for some exciting punting ahead. Let’s hear if for the girls!

The Yearling Stakes is a six furlong dash for two year olds, and is generally a strong race for the north, who have taken the majority of renewals in recent years, with the Ryan, Johnston and Fahey having more success than Dick Turpin had on The Knavesmire. Richard Fahey has two runners, as does Kevin Ryan; however none put forward any overwhelming claims. Arguably the most progressive juvenile in the field is BLESSNIGTON, who stepped up well from his Windsor debut to win at Goodwood in impressive fashion. He beat a strong field that day, winning coming away after being prominent throughout, and the bare form of that race looks rather strong. The third and the sixth won next time out, and the ninth and fourteenth were second in maidens on their next run. The Gosden and Buick team are having a season to remember, and I expect them to have a very fruitful day here on Thursday.

I have gone over The Lowther Stakes umpteen times, and have looked, searched and foraged for reasons why NEWFANGLED will get beat, and can’t find any. I really don’t like short priced favourites in two year group races, and it certainly isn’t one to go lumping in, but the manner of her Ascot win was scintillating. She was well backed, and pulled hard early, under a canny ride from Will Buick saw her pull her way to the front and not look back, she looks like she has pace to burn. The filly is out of a Machiavellian mare and a daughter of New Approach, she will get better with age, in the mean time however six furlongs is probably her optimum trip. Roshdu Queen battled well in a five furlong listed race last time out, and is the main danger.

Kieren Fallon is an extremely eye-catching booking for ANDERIEGO for David O’ Meara, and the four year old is already carving out to be something of a course and distance specialist, a winner of two straight one mile York handicaps. The Invincible Spirit gelding is up a combined 13lb for the two wins, but won both in commanding fashion, winning well, staying on towards the finish before eased down. There could be a bit more in the tank, and no doubt the stable have been aiming him at the race after his wins in similar company.

THE FUGUE has been one of the most unlucky of Group One winners this season, the irony of all ironies, and will take all the beating if replicating her high level of overall form. The classic generation receive 10lb from their elders and as such, it should pay to focus on the youngsters, as seen with Blue Bunting last year. The Fugue was at her most impressive when winning The Musidora Stakes here over 10 furlongs, and then winning The Nassau Stakes over the same distance, so the step up once more to a mile and a half could be a worry. Looking through her form though however, she is yet to run a bad race, irrespective of trip. Third in The Oaks when Was pinched it from the front, and second to Princess Highway in ground less than ideal. She sets the standard and comes out 3lb clear of the field on official ratings. She is the one to beat.

The way Ryan Moore rode the filly SEQUENCE last time out showed how good this daughter of Selkirk must be. Running in a Newmarket handicap over a mile and a half, off an average gallop Moore took the race by the scruff of the neck, hitting the front, and not stopping. She won the race by nine lengths, eased down, and as such gets a revised mark of 100. However, she is unexposed and should be still improving, and in another race where the three year olds get bundles of weight, she will be hard to oppose and to beat. The manner of her two victories when switching from maidens to handicap suggest she has a lot to offer, and now running in Listed grade, it may be another stepping stone, as long as she first of all acquires that elusive black type.

The seven furlong handicap that closes the card is a very tricky contest, and Ladyship will no doubt go off short, beaten a nose last time out, a well bred filly for Sir Michael Stoute, and the step up in trip should suit her. Jade and Riot of Colour get in on nice marks, and are respected, but it could be worth taking a chance on DUTCH ROSE for David O’ Meara and Danny Tudhope. The Dutch Art filly is a course and distance winner. Running off a 7lb higher mark at Goodwood, and she ran well to finish seventh of sixteen runners in a handicap where the form is already starting to work out well, with the winner winning a valuable race at Chester next time out. She has won four from six starts so far this term, and is clearly a filly that is enjoying her racing, and despite her highest ever mark of 86, she still has more to offer.

2.00 York – Blessington
2.30 York – Newfangled
3.05 York – Anderiego
3.40 York – The Fugue (Nap)
4.15 York – Sequence (Nb)
4.50 York – Dutch Rose


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York's Ebor Meeting - Day One

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MASS RALLY has held his form well throughout this season, without getting his head in front, and despite that, he has ran with great consistency and aplomb in sprint handicaps, and all forms of ground thus far. Second at Ascot and Doncaster over five and six furlongs, as well as finishing prominent in decent company at Hamilton, Newcastle and Thirsk. He put his best performance to date in last time out at Ascot, flying late on, unlucky not to get up late on the line. Paul Mulrennan has been riding very well thus far this season, and has 11 wins and 25 further places for Michael Dods, from 74 rides, and a near 15% strike rate.

The Accomb Stakes is a Group Three for two year olds, and whilst the market principles will most likely favour Alonso De Sousa for Ballydoyle and Dundonnell for Prince Khalid Abdullah, the most interesting runner is STEELER for Mark Johnston and Kieren Fallon. This horse was backed like defeat was out of the question last time out in a hot Goodwood maiden, and got up late to win well in the end, over seven furlongs. The Raven’s Pass colt is the trainers only two year old with a feast of entries and is clearly well thought of back home. The fact he is even in this level of race speaks volumes, and no one rides on the Knavesmire like that man Fallon.

The Great Voltigeur Stakes this year has an emphasis on quality rather than quantity, it really is a mouth-watering renewal. Encke pushed Noble Mission close last time out at Goodwood, and renew their rivalry here. Energiser has Frankie Dettori on as supposed second string too. Main Sequence was narrowly touched off in the Grand Prix De Paris, and his third in The Derby is the strongest piece of form. That being said, I like the progressive profile of THOMAS CHIPPENDALE, who had the beating of both Noble Mission, and the reappearing Thought Worthy here. The Sir Henry Cecil trained, Robert Ogden owned colt arrived last year with a lofty reputation, and put greenness aside to win his maiden at the second attempt. Off a mark of 86, he came strode up cantering before tiring on his first run of the season, before winning incredibly well over 10 furlongs in a similar contest at Newmarket. He won The King Edward at Royal Ascot coming away, and seems to be improving at a rate of knots. Main Sequence obviously sets a high standard, but given this Dansili colt’s rate of progression, he is taken to edge out the two.

TWICE OVER came back to form with a creditable run behind Nathaniel and Farhh in The Coral Eclipse, and he is the one given the nod to chase home his stablemate Frankel in The Juddmonte International, the highlight of the first day of the Ebor Festival. He ran behind Farhh and Nathaniel, who in their next runs finished second behind Frankel and Danedream in their subsequent runs, with Sri Putra winning a Group Two in his next run. Twice Over’s record at York is exceptional, 3211, all in group company, including winning this race last year. This 10 furlong specialist should be helped with the strong pace, and can bring home a second successive 1-2 for owner and sponsor Prince Khalid Abdullah, who should have Frankel romp home, with Twice Over around six lengths down in second.

The two mile handicap is one of, if not the most open and exciting handicap of the meeting, barring the Ebor itself. Full of illustrious pedigrees, handicap plots, and national hunt runners, it is an absolute minefield. A real mixed bag, and with a field this strong, there will be a lot of pace in the race, which will mean there will be an emphasis on stamina and jockeyship. NEVER CAN TELL immediately makes the shortlist given his ability to handle big fields with strong pace in, and Frankie Dettori, while not the force of old, excels at big meetings and big occasions. Olympiad could have lots of improvement to come, and will surely come on for better ground, given his pedigree, and how unexposed the colt is with only four starts to his name. Countrywide Flame is the real dark horse, with his old sparring partner Grumeti doing well when switching codes earlier in the summer. What is encouraging is how the yard are hitting form at the right time, and with stamina proven, will be there or thereabouts at the finish, providing he is fit and fresh.

The 4.50 at York is another home sponsored race with The Talk To Victor Handicap being a Class 2 affair, and being full of past and future group horses, with Danadana heading the weights for Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon. He was laboured last time out, but hung rather badly, and wasn’t overly knocked about by Kieren Fallon, his form however before that was strong, with two good handicap wins, against strong fields, he should be better than the bare result last time out. KALK BAY is similarly well fancied, and is well in after two good handicap wins, over the same trip. Paul Mulrennan rides for local trainer Mick Easterby and carrying a 6lb penalty, should be there or thereabouts and looks a well drawn out plot for the craftiest of trainers.

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

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York 4.15 - BetVictor.com Stakes

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The two mile handicap is one of, if not the most open and exciting handicap of the meeting, barring the Ebor itself. Never mind some of the sprints, this takes tactical aplomb, and will be a game of craft and guile. Full of illustrious pedigrees, handicap plots, and national hunt animals, it is the proverbial minefield. The only real and thorough way to assess the field, is to go through it runner by runner. Officially titled the BetVictor.com Handicap, hopefully it brings me a bit of an omen, and gives me something of a home field advantage.

Dazinksi won the race last year for Mark Tompkins, who excels with these ong distance handicaps, and Dazinski is just 1lb higher than his winning mark from last year. Paul Hanagan is once again booked, and he has steadily improved his form as the season has gone on, but the quality of that form has him wanting in a classier field than last year. Tompkins also has Mystery Star, but it is hard to fancy him, he has not won over the course, nor the distance, and without a win to his name for nearly two years.

Deavuville Flyer was behind Dazinski that day, and can’t see him reversing the form, after a lacklustre season. He was laboured when running in a race that featured Eagle Rock, Itlaaq Herostatus, Reem Star and French Hollow last time out, and the form of that race on paper, looks poor, with all five subsequent runners being unplaced. I can’t see the winner coming from any of those runners.

It is hard to fancy horses from stables that are out of form, and as such I can’t fancy any John Dunlop horse over the festival, operating this season at an 8% strike rate, and not a single place from four runners at York this season, Downhiller can be eliminated. Although, I think I said the same about taking Brian Meehan runners on at Royal Ascot, and although a poor one, he still got Most Improved to somehow win the St James’s Palace Stakes.

Very Good Day is a course and distance winner, but seems well held by the handicapper. Raised 7lb for a course and distance win last month seemed to have halted his progression when last of fourteen runners in a mile and six furlongs handicap at Goodwood, and based on that run, and his mark, there are others better off. Similarly poorly handicapped is High Office, who although finished a career best fourth in the Northumberland Plate, has patchy form over inconsistent distances and conditions, and looks open to unexposed rivals. One of which is Olympiad who is a rare runner for Dermot Weld, and has impressive form as a two year old ahead of subsequent group winners Quest for Peace and Saddlers Rock. He was all out to win a mile and a half Gowran Park maiden, winning by a nose; however that was his first run for nearly a year. He flopped next time out on heavy going at Galway. He does however remain unexposed, and could get better on decent ground.

Western Prize has solid form behind Montaser, Mount Athos and others, and stayed on well in his first foray over two miles last time out to suggest more improvement is to come. However a 4lb rise and the stable form dropping off is a worry, operating at a strike rate of 17% in May to July has slumped to 10% so far in August. Never Can Tell ran an eye-catching race last time out behind Hurricane Higgins at Goodwood, and that could have put the Cesarewitch winner spot on for this, although rated 100, he has the burden of top weight on 9”7.

The three horses left are all from the national hunt sphere, and it is usually the stereotype that those horses come here fitter and tougher than their flat counterparts, we shall see. Nicky Henderson’s Cape Express was behind Never Can Tell at Goodwood, but didn’t seem to handle the pace of the race, and struggled to get home over the extended trip. That being said, the seven year old has won his last three novice hurdles, over the simmer, admittedly at short prices. Ashbrittle returns from finishing eighth in The Ascot Stakes that should have sharpened him up after a 94 day absence, and was slightly hampered turning for home, so improvement could be on the cards. However his best form has come on soft and the form of that race at Ascot has had only three runners placed from twenty four subsequent runs. Countrywide Flame is a very interesting runner for John Quinn, and the Triumph Hurdle winner has a lenient weight of 84. Never unplaced last season, his form over hurdles read 1212312, the last four runs in Grade 1 level.

A real mixed bag, and with a field this strong, there will be a lot of pace in the race, which will mean there will be an emphasis on stamina and jockeyship. Never Can Tell immediately makes the shortlist given his ability to handle big fields with strong pace in, and Frankie Dettori, while not the force of old, excels at big meetings and big occasions. Olympiad could have lots of improvement to come, and will surely come on for better ground, given his pedigree, and how unexposed the colt is with only four starts to his name. Countrywide Flame is the real dark horse, with his old sparring partner Grumeti doing well when switching codes earlier in the summer. What is encouraging is how the yard are hitting form at the right time, and with stamina proven, will be there or thereabouts at the finish, providing he is fit and fresh.

1. Never Can Tell
2. Olympiad
3. Countrywide Flame

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

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Friday's Feast of Racing at Newcastle -16/8/2012

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Newcastle put on a decent looking, and chunkiful eight race card on Friday, and although there may be technically superior offerings at Newbury and Nottingham in terms of quality, prize money, and indeed jockeys, the nitty gritty of the north-east promises to throw some value up for us. Well, that’s the plan anyway! Howay!

The first race sees our Nap from Wednesday run; AL MUKHDAM, who was pulled out due to the deteriorating ground, and running on the current yardstick reading of; good, good-to-firm in places, should suit this colt a treat. As mentioned in my Beverley write up, the stable are flying with their juveniles, and with the promised shown on debut, he remains the Nap, and should perform with credit.

ALMUFTARRIS is restored to his maiden winning distance of 10 furlongs, after failing to stay over longer trips.. He had promised much in maidens, and as such got a hefty opening mark of 84. He has since struggled, and now gelded, he has floated down the handicap, down to a new low of 73. Blinkers are on for the first time, and the stable are going very well at the moment at Ed Dunlop’s. He could be a price too, and although I don’t care for the phrase, ‘an each way steal’.

TRIPLE EIGHT goes unpenalised for a facile win in an apprentice handicap, following on from a good third the time before that, at Carlisle and Musselburgh, both under the same apprentice, and 7lb claimer Eva Moscrop. She has formed a quick and fruitful partnership with the four year old, who absolutely hacked up last time out, winning by six lengths. Although down to seven furlongs from a mile, the fact she is 7lb well in, with a jockey on her claiming another seven, makes this almost too good to be true. Buying money? No, I didn’t say that…

SCARBOCIO made a significant step up from maiden company and form, when going down narrowly in this three year old colt’s first run in handicaps. Despite still showing greenness, he was a narrow loser, going down by the best part of two lengths. Over the same trip, and with more experience under his belt, he could come on further, and the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard are in terrific order as of late, with five winners in the last week or so, at a 50% strike rate.

PLANETEX was well thought of at home, being heavily backed on debut for the John Quinn yard, and despite flopping on debut, he finally came good at the third attempt. He won a decent looking Ripon maiden a shade cosily, showing a game attitude once hitting the front. A mark of 65 seems on the lean side, and with the second and third running well in maidens and handicaps next time out, both placing, he has to be respected for a shrewd yard.

2.00 Newcastle – Al Mukhdam (Nap)
2.30 Newcastle – Almuftarris
3.35 Newcastle – Triple Eight
5.15 Newcastle – Scarbocio (Nb)
5.50 Newcastle – Planetex


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Racing at Sailsbury; Thursday August 16th 2012

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Salisbury has an absolute mouth-watering card on Thursday, with the highlight being a Group Three race over a mile, with some highly impressive entries matching the standards of the card. Kudos to the racecourse for putting on such an exciting card for a traditionally poor day for racing.

GILDED FRAME ran a very good initial outing at Glorious Goodwood to suggest he should have learnt a lot from that run, and is entitled to come on a tonne. Marcus Tregoning and Hayley Turner teamed up to have a two year old maiden winner on Wednesday, and if the money comes for the colt, he should be taken even more seriously. He will be likely overpriced due to the flashy and respected connections opposing in the race, with the Hannon, Fahey and Osbourne stables represented.

MEXICAN MICK stepped up on his debut to show even greater promise when third of ten at Doncaster, losing by just under two lengths, when staying on well. The form of that race has worked out particularly well, and with the three year old bow gelded, he should be even sharper. Jockey of the moment Jack Doyle takes the ride, and is enjoying a terrific 50% strike rate riding for Ian Williams, with two winners from four runners.

TRADE COMMISIONER is another home bred for Lady Rothschild, and I was fortunate to see the gelding absolutely hack up on Eclipse Day at Sandown, and when you consider the four year old has only raced five times, is unexposed and going the right way, he looks a very good thing in the Group Three Sovereign Stakes. The form of the last race, a class two handicap, has worked out incredibly well too. Fulbright, sixth that day, won three straight races, including The Betfred Mile, and Field of Dream, seventh, won The Betfair International Stakes. It looks rock solid.

The mile and three quarters race looks a really competitive affair, and plenty with live chances. Grandad Mac is a horse I’ve tipped up and done my money on before, as he has finished second in three of his last four runs. Suzi’s a Class Act runs under a penalty, but could be asking a lot, running off top weight. MADAME ST CLAIR looks to be coming into her own, and the further the trip, the further she should improve. Stepped up to a mile and a half saw her win well, in a seller at Lingfield, coming away to win by five lengths. That was followed up by almost defying a 8lb rise at Kempton, running on well behind a well backed favourite. She remains on the same mark, and will no doubt thrive stepping up once more, she is officially 4lb well in on ratings, due to go up next week.

1.50 Salisbury – Gilded Frame
2.50 Salisbury – Mexican Mick
3.55 Salisbury – Trade Commisioner (Nap)
5.05 Salisbury – Madame St Clare


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Wyndham Championship - USPGA Golf

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The Wyndham Championship has us dipping our toe back into the golf punting pond, and as the metaphor suggest, this fish is going for a swim once more. The course favours those straight off the tee, a par 70 course, the players with strong tee-to-green form, and driving accuracy is a must. Nothing flashy put the ball on the fairway.

Carl Petterson is fancied by many, but doesn’t strike me as a man who can prove reliable when putting my hard earned (sort of) wonga on him. I’ve backed him a few times, mainly based on the fact he drives it long and has a strong short game, he is the 11th best stroke maker on the tour, not exactly in the ilk of Mickleson and McIlroy etc, but he will make strides, just not for me. Neither is Jason Dufner, who has cooled off after a strong start to the year. The season may be taking it’s toll on the twice winner already this season, and although arguably the class runner in the field, with a World Ranking of 9, and respectable efforts in the WGC and USPGA Championship, his price is far too short for my liking.

Webb Simpson won this last year, and I was very sweet on him at the start of the season, backing him for The Players. After his torrential performance there, I shunned him, for him to obviously pop up and win The US Open. His form since then has been 29-7-MC, and it is worrying that for someone priced around 12/1, he has only played three tournaments in two months, again, far too short.

Looking at the closing sentence of the opening paragraph, it seems obvious and rather simple, but just hit it straight, stay out of the thick stuff, don’t try anything flashy. Looking at the basics, and the prices, there are two current players who fit criteria, and look at very decent prices. The first being Brandt Snedeker – who is looking for his second win on tour this season. I have liked him for a while, but it has been difficult to accept, considering he broke my heart when beating Luke Donald in a play off last year in The Heritage; when I had my biggest ever golf punt to date on Luuuuke at 10s (sobs). His performance on the greens are incredible, being 5th in strokes gained, and 7th in birdie average, a man to trust around the flags, a good omen in Olympic season. His stand out form of third at The Open three weeks ago shows he is in fine fettle, and at 28/1 with Sporting Bet, he is a great each way price, considering he won this event in 2008, and since finished T5 in 2009 and T8 in 2010, in a game of horses for courses, surely he is too big at 28/1?!

Another previous winner is the complete opposite of flash, bang wallop, and the 2009 winner Ryan Moore usually comes good at this time of the year, lets hope it is here. The Washington native is super consistent, having only missed three cuts all season, and his -16 here in 2009, showed that with 64-65-70-65. Put a line through the USPGA, which was a freak tournament, seen with Rory, he was T8 at The John Deere Classic, going low at -14. That was his third post of -10 or lower this season, and I think he could shoot something similar here, just a question of whether that will get in the money. His rank of 43rd on tour should stand him good stead in a field with the majority of big guns missing. No major European Tour players, and no Americans the like of Woods, Mickelson, Bubba etc. Again, with Sporting Bet, and also Sky Bet, Coral, Betfred and others, 50/1 looks too good for a grinder and grafter like Moore.

Another arrer being chucked, cheeky darts, darts metaphor for you there, is Nick Watney who like a horse being sent to Lingfield, has dropped down the handicap, but he still has a decent all round game, and a drop in class here, in much lower grade. Again, put a line through the USPGA, it has absolutely zero affect on the players, considering it was such a strange week. Prior to that, Watney had five straight Top 25 performances, nine so far this season, generally with decent scores. Another one of these ‘all round’ players, with a current ranking of 65th all round on tour. He generally starts well, and in a tournament with no big guns, if he goes low early, he could be difficult to topple. If he gets his tail up, confidence going, and has the potential and unquestionably the ability to go close and go deep, pardon the expression.

Two longshots and supposed underdogs at big prices to throw into the mix are Jerry Kelly and Heath Slochum, both of whom are steady veterans with exceptional driving accuracy percentages. Kelly is the leading Driving Accuracy player on tour, with five top 25 finishes already this season, again, he fits a nice profile. He has broken par on his last five tournaments and is clearly in good fettle, he was T4 last year, and could be a nice each way price at 100/1. Heath Slochum, who is another one at the top of the driving accuracy tables, is a grizzly pro at another big price. He has been there or thereabouts, without making a dramatic impact as of yet this season, yet put his best performance of the season in at The True South Classic, T13 with a score of -14, he could be coming into a nice bit of form. Third in driving accuracy and 47th in greens in regulation, the template of his game should suit the course, and is another, beautiful price at 125/1, not greedy, I’ll take a place! ;)

Selections

Brandt Snedeker – 28/1 2pts EW (Sporting Bet)
Nick Watney – 40/1 1pt EW (SportingBet, Coral, Betfred, SkyBet, BetVictor)
Ryan Moore – 50/1 1pt EW (BetVictor, Sporting Bet, and others)
Jerry Kelly – 100/1 0.5pt EW (BetVictor, Sporting Bet, and others)
Heath Slochum – 125/1 0.5pt EW (BetVictor, Sporting Bet, and others)


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York Ebor Meeting - Ante Post

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York – Ante Post

Brief foray into the world of ante post racing, and with York just around the corner, there are a few horses that I have shortlisted for the festival in roughly ten days time. The weather is expecting to hold up, and given that the current going is officially ‘good to firm’, quick ground horses, and those with course form are those to keep on our side of, especially in the competitive handicaps.

The Ebor is seen as the prize race, and whereas I for instance have had better luck in The Nunthorpe and The Yorkshire Oaks in previous years, this is the one for the casual punter on a Saturday afternoon, with an expected crowd of 60,000 – Royal Ascot combined with northern charm. The first horse that I like, given his tremendous form around The Knavesmire is CRACKENTORP for local connections, trained by Tim Easterby. He has ran four times so far this season, form figures of 3-1-2-9. Game and gutsy, second in The Northumberland Plate on the back of a good win over a mile and half in an apprentice handicap at York. He won well, and went on to give a game account in The Plate, in atrocious conditions. He fluffed next time out, but I think the race came too soon, and freshened up with a break, with his stable, and his record around York (2390011319), he can bounce back.

HURRICANE HIGGINS is another who makes the shortlist based on his win at Goodwood last week, winning well over two and a half miles. He saw the trip out well, but going back through his form, he was beaten only six lengths by subsequent St Leger winner Masked Marvel, and six lengths by Namibian and Fiorente in last years Gordon Stakes. His form seems to rely on good ground, and with conditions expected to suit, he will run with a 4lb penalty, and will effectively be 5lb well in. Based on the form his run over The Ebor trip at Newmarket in May, he could be very well handicapped, with that race in particular working out very well.

TOMINATOR has been feeling his way back into the season, and through being basically tailed off in The Chester Cup, and then beaten ten lengths in a Haydock handicap, he has returned to the mark of 97, which should give him a chance. A ready winner of The Northumberland Plate last year, the trainer Reg Hollinshead has said all this horse wants is a trip of a mile and three quarters at a strong pace on good ground. He should get all three in The Ebor, and with money already being thrown around for the animal, and fresh off a break, he has to go on the shortlist, even if only precautionary and as a saver.

The Nunthorpe will finally see ORTENSIA given the respect she is oh so due, after finally getting the good, quick ground she is used to down under. Laboured at Newmarket, and getting worked up at Ascot, we didn’t see her in her true light, until Goodwood. She got her ground, and slammed a field of fifteen good group horses, in sublime style, the mare is back. Settled readily in mid field by William Buick, she came through with her trademark turn of foot and came home with a good rattle. She should get the similar strong pace at York, and come home in the same manner.

Betfred Ebor

Crackentorp 2pt Win @ 16/1 (Across)
Hurricane Higgins 1pt Win @ 33/1 (Stan James, William Hills, Sky Bet)
Tominator 1pt Win @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

Nunthorpe

Ortensia 5pt Win @ 6/1 (Across)


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Wednesday 15th August 2012 - Racing at Beverley

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MOHEEBB ran a very game and creditable race last time out at Carlisle; the eight year old has had a fairly consistent season. Beaten only two lengths by Kay Gee Bee, the bare form looks good, with the fifth that day coming out and winning a handicap next time out, he is respected and goes for a smart stable. Brocklebank and Violent Velocity will put up the nearest challenges based on official ratings.

Peter Chapple-Hyam is having a particularly fruitful year with his juveniles, with twelve separate two year old winners so far this term. He has another colt, this time by Exceed and Excel in the form of AL MUKHDAM, who aims to build on a decent start to his career, with a promising fourth in a hot Newmarket maiden. He was still very green that day, ducking right twice, but the bare result and promise was good, and with the run under his belt, he should come on a bundle. The second has since won next time out, and Al Mukhdam looks the best horse in an ordinary looking contest.

COCKTAIL CHARLIE keeps trickling down the handicap, and is due to come good eventually, and even though his form in numbers doesn’t look exactly scintillating, it is better than it may suggest. Beaten by 3 ½ lengths in his last three starts, but all competitive handicaps, at Haydock, York and most recently, sixth of nineteen runners at Thirsk. He is tried at five furlongs, and given his consistency, the form of the yard, and down to a career low mark of 74, there are certainly worse horses to have a punt on.

I backed PINOTAGE last time out, and he ran a solid race to finish third of fourteen, when a well backed 16s into 9s chance over a mile and a half at Pontefract. Graham Lee gave the gelding a very patient ride, and he stayed on well to finish down by around six lengths that day. The form of that, and his run at Redcar the race before has worked out well (lots of wins and places in behind), and with different tactics employed, he could fair better. He has been lowered a further 1lb by the handicapper, and Graham Lee has a 22% strike rate at the track.

2.15 Beverley – Moheebb
2.45 Beverley – Al Mukhdam (Nap)
3.50 Beverley – Cocktail Charlie
5.25 Beverley – Pinotage


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Tuesday Racing at Bath, Catterick and Ripon 7/8/2012

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Just a brief look at Tuesday’s cards, nothing too serious, with racing like this, you don’t always know who or what is playing with a full deck, pardon my cynicism..

MEDICOE bypasses handicapping for another tilt at a maiden, and Sir Mark Prescott’s son of Medicean has stayed on well over six furlongs both times to suggest a tilt at seven should shed the maiden tag at the fourth attempt. GAP PRINCESS has come back and shaped nicely in two comeback runs this season and now with the cheek pieces back on, the mare can improve further still. I flagged this partnership up last week, and with two wins in the bag in the last week, it would be rude not to bring up the hatrick here. IRISH GIRL’S SPIRIT was my Nap last Wednesday, and I was devastated to find she was a non runner that day, but out again tomorrow, I shall remain loyal, and the way she ran in her only two handicaps she is another, hopefully, well in.

IRRATIONAL’s form figures this season read 6-9-4, but they are a lot better when actually going through the form book and analysing the races. The sixth of nine was the filly’s comeback run, after a 213 day absence. Then last of 9, where she practically fell out of the stalls and never travelled. The last fourth suggested a return to form, beaten less than two lengths, staying on over six furlongs. Down to a new low mark of 57, she looks on a very workable figure.

2.20 Catterick – Medicoe
3.20 Catterick – Gap Princess
4.20 Catterick – Irish Girls Spirit
5.20 Catterick – Irrational

Starting off in a maiden at Bath, and Chris Caitlin rides the quirky course particularly well, with a 25% strike rate there in the last twelve months. He rides TREGERETH for Jonathan Portman, and the Footstepsinthesand filly can build after two promising runs already this season. She was third last time out over course and distance, beaten five lengths behind subsequent handicap winner Dream Maker for Tom Dascombe. With another run under her belt, and improvement to come, she will take all of the beating and then some.

THE NOBLE ORD has been running to a decent standard all season, without getting any rub of the green, or rub of anything else for that matter. Down to a new low of 72 last time out, the gelding was beaten less than two lengths into fourth in a fourteen runner handicap. Liam Keniry is back on board, and given he has a win and a second from three starts with the three year old.

I really, really don’t like backing horses who are officially out of the handicap, but I will make a rare exception with RUPEETOUPS for Henry Candy and Douglas Sweeney, another track specialist, with a 20% strike rate and +£26 profit for £1 stake in the last twelve months. Not really put in to three maidens, off a mark of 46, it seems more than fair, and with the stable flying, you are sure to see some money for this one, especially now gelded.

SPINNING WATERS is a game old horse for Dai Burchell, and the now six year old is on an attractive mark of 46 after an eye catching third last time out over two miles at Chepstow. The tired late on, and over the trip again, with fitness sharper, and more rivals with stamina doubts, he could go close. Kelly Harrison in the plate is a positive for me.

SHADES OF GREY proved to be the handicap good thing twice, when bolting up each time, the latter by five lengths and is expected to complete the hatrick in style, despite an 8lb rise. He looks to be going the right way, and when you get a mare enjoying herself, she tends to thrive.

2.00 Bath – Tregereth
3.00 Bath – The Noble Ord
3.30 Bath – Rupeetoups
4.30 Bath – Spinning Waters
5.00 Bath – Shades of Grey


MOVIESTA was rather frustrating last time out, the penny dropping too late, but when it did, the colt ran on rather strongly in the closing stages to suggest there is plenty more to come. With some impressive entries in his arsenal, and the run behind him he should come on a bundle.

OUR DIANE ran nothing like the race she ought to last time at York when being backed off the boards, and is expected to bounce back in style at Ripon in the 6.35 Nursery. She was given a questionable ride to say the least, and with hopefully different tactics now employed, she should run much better, and as the initial money and promise suggested.

ASTRA HALL is another of these Ralph Beckett horse lowly handicapped then laughs in the face of Phil Smith and his boys, winning twice with a relative ease both times. Despite the rise, the filly is clearly far better than a rating of 62 suggests, and expect a long streak on the way to an eventual mark around the 80-90 mark.

SINGEUR was well supported last time out in a good handicap for Robin Bastiman, and ran a creditable sixth on his season debut. That run should have put him spot on for this class three handicap, and his record at the minimum trip is exemplary, with a 40% strike rate.

The final selection is GABRIALS STAR who ran a blinder behind Sir Michael Stoute’s Sequence at Thirsk over a mile and a half, and is now stepped up for a tilt at two miles for the first time. A Hernando colt out of a Machiavellan mare, there is plenty of stamina in the pedigree, and with him staying on well last time out; this could further bring the colt along.

6.05 Ripon – Moviesta
6.35 Ripon – Our Diane
7.05 Ripon – Astra Hall
7.35 Ripon – Singeur
8.05 Ripon – Gabrials Star

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Monday Racing at Kempton and Ripon

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Racing on Monday is rather subdued, but I suppose we have been spoiled in the last week with the scintillating scenes at both Galway and Goodwood; excellent exhibitions of sport.

Just a slight bump in class Monday afternoon with cards at Ripon and Kempton, with Wolverhampton at night, half the English racing is on artificial surfaces, what is going on?!

Eve Johnston Houghton has a runner in the first at Kempton Park with SIMPLY getting a nice opening mark of 58, and there could be much more improvement in this Nayef filly to come. Not knocked about in three runs in decent maidens, she looks unexposed, and with three running out of the handicap, and the rest of the field showing little in handicaps thus far, a race like this is well within the grasp for a yard that are ticking along nicely.

MR FICKLE has proved costly to follow, finishing second and fourth in the gelding’s last two starts over six and seven furlongs, and has met more trouble in running than a Jamie Spencer highlight reel. Upped in trip further, George Baker has a mile to play with, and the longer trip should give the three year old more time to find his feet and come with his now trademark turn of foot.

LETSTALKABOUTMONEY runs in a maiden after stepping up into a listed company, running with great aplomb, only going down by five lengths to the Richard Hannon 2000 Guineas fancy Toronado. With a rating of 87, the colt should be too good for rivals in a fairly average looking maiden.

GINGER MONKEY only went down by three lengths to an even money favourite on the all weather over six furlongs at Lingfield, and with the Cockney Rebel gelding’s first run for six months, he should come on for that a lot. He came back at the favourite towards the line, and the step up in trip should suit this well bred sort for an in form Peter Chapple-Hyam.

2.30 Kempton – Simply
3.30 Kempton – Mr Fickle (Nap)
4.00 Kempton – Letstalkaboutmoney (Nb)
4.30 Kempton – Ginger Monkey

Win Yankee.

Similarly muddling card on offer at Ripon, where the Yorkshire Racing Festival carries on, with the local protagonists stealing the show, as per. Famous northern names such as Haggas, Easterby, Hanagan, Nicholls, Winston et al could have a fair few winners between them.

ROYAL ASPIRATION runs for William Haggas and Paul Hanagan in the first, and is a nice little boost to the multiples in the first. Two seconds in maiden company, before only being beat three lengths in the mud at Newbury for the Weatherby’s Super Sprint. He is much better than this grade, and as long as going off around the even money mark, look a good thing.

ACE OF VALHALLA is officially rated 3lb inferior to Pulverize for Paul Hanagan and Sir Michael Stoute, but I feel the Authorized colt has shown far substantial form and attitude in his four runs in comparison to his rival. Second to subsequent winner Rosslyn Castle at Windsor, and second on handicap debut, upped in trip should suit, given he is a son of a Derby winner, and the Cecil yard are flying, with three winners at Glorious Goodwood, all group one or two races.

After winning a maiden last year, SKY HIGH DIVER went onto complete a successful four timer, winner three straight handicaps over a mile and a half, and a mile and three furlongs, all at Southwell. The filly looked in need of the run in the heavy ground at Hamilton three weeks ago, and she should come on for that run. Robert Winston is the form jockey in the north, and he is booked to ride for this Graham Swinbank runner, and the partnership have had two winners in the last week, Honest Deal at Wolverhampton, and Painted Tail at Pontefract.

2.15 Ripon – Royal Aspiration (Nap)
4.45 Ripon – Ace of Valhalla (Nb)
5.15 Ripon – Sky High Diver

Win Treble.

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Sunday Afternoon Lucky 15 at Chester

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PENNY GARCIA goes for the in form Easterby win, and stepped up nicely from her maiden form to break the maiden tag at the fourth attempt. Up 5lb, she is still progressing with racing, and is capable of much more, and should appreciate handicapping.

Ed McMahon does well with his two year olds, and it is expected ARLECCHINO can step up from his debut two weeks ago at Haydock. That form couldn’t have worked out even better, Deauville Prince is well regarded by Tom Dascombe, the second; Steeler hacked up after being punted off the boards at Goodwood yesterday, and given the Hernando colt was still green on debut, he looks solid.

Van Ellis has been well supported in the listed race, and is a course and distance winner, but he looks plenty short now, and the value looks to be with PONTY ACCLAIM for Ted Easterby and Duran Fentiman. Finished last year as a Group Three winner, and ran the exciting Pearl Secret to two lengths at Pontefract on return. Beaten nine lengths in the Kings Stand, and six of thirteen in a York listed race. She gets weight all round as a three year old filly and has strong claims.

GRANDILOQUENT is a nice home bred for Khalid Abdullah and Juddmonte Farms, and is expected to build on his two wins from two runs this far this season. The colt won his maiden and subsequent handicap over a mile and a half and up only 3lb for that, on a mark of 84, he is open to all sorts of improvement, and looks the one to beat.

2.00 Chester – Penny Garcia
2.30 Chester – Arlecchino
3.05 Chester – Ponty Acclaim
4.45 Chester – Grandiloquent

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Glorious Goodwood - Day Four

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A few weeks ago it was all about horses with soft ground form, those mud larks were the ones to follow, their time has come and gone, those quick ground animals are now those to follow.

Some have won on both, and the classy GATEWOOD has won on good at Epsom and York, and soft at Ascot, he is versatile, unexposed and classy. He manages to settle under William Buick so well in his races, that he comes on the wide outside with a late rattle and has put the three handicaps away with relative ease, and little fuss. The George Strawbridge owned Galileo colt steps up into group company, and has pounds to find on official ratings with others, but out of a Selkirk mare, he should relish the step up in trip, and he looks the best bet of the day.

ALJAMAAHEER was an unlucky loser at Royal Ascot in the Jersey Stakes, and was flying towards the end with Sentaril, with Ishvana and Seamie Heffernan catching the field off guard, kicking early and pinching it from the front. Aljamaaheer looked so classy when winning a very good listed race at Newmarket, running on well over seven furlongs. Finally stepped up to a mile, this Dubawi colt can improve further, and looks very classy. Tales of Grimm is still unexposed and can fill out the forecast.

SMARTY SOCKS is a game old horse for the in form David O’ Meara yard and has Kieren Fallon as an eye catching booking in the saddle. His best form has been on good ground, and he has been shaping up nicely thus far this season, ignoring reappearance aside. After that, a solid staying on third on ground not suited, over seven furlongs, followed by fourth in a listed race over again inadequate trip and ground, before finally getting a rock hard surface and winning nicely at York. Fallon was on that day, and with him returning to ride and the form of his two wins looking rather good, the old boy can bring it home for the north.

ORTENSIA finally has her ideal ground after having to hack around Ascot and Newmarket in the mud. This Aussie mare is a quick ground horse, and even though not liking the ground, still performed with credit. The fact she has hung around for this speaks volumes, and is a group one horse in a group two field. Putting it plainly, she is the best horse in the race, and I like her. A LOT.

CARLTON BLUE looked to be pretty unexposed off a mark of 74, and runs under a penalty in the 4.20, a seven furlong nursery after winning rather pleasingly at Ascot in a thorough fashion. I flagged up the Paul Cole yard a few weeks ago and they are coming good. Ashley Morgan is a five pound claimer, but gave the colt a very nice ride and retains the ride again, and can hopefully make it a nice, cheeky double.

GRACIA DIRECTA came over from Germany for a Group Three last month at York and won well under Robert Winston, and it could be worth taking a chance on the filly to continue her rich vein of form. She is stepped up from six furlongs to seven from shrewd connections and looks the value play in a field where Godolphin hold the aces with UAE 1000 Guineas winner Gamilati and the talented Dysphonia.

The Henry Candy yard are coming good as of now, The Confessor tipped up on here and won on Wednesday and LARWOOD can do the same. A good second last time out has him 4lb well in official ratings and is open to further improvement than most, dropping down to the minimum trip.

2.00 Goodwood – Gatewood (Nap)
2.35 Goodwood – Aljamaaheer
3.10 Goodwood – Smarty Socks
3.45 Goodwood – Ortensia (Nb)
4.20 Goodwood – Carlton Blue
4.50 Goodwood – Gracia Directa
5.25 Goodwood – Larwood

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Glorious Goodwood - Day Three

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Asatir is unbeaten thanks to two handicap wins either side of the season, but the form of his three victories does not amount to much, even if he is on an upward curve. Similar story for Hefner, who is likely to be short due to connections and Hallings Comet doesn’t look to have beaten much in two starts this term. Compare that to OPINION, who bounced back from a lacklustre effort over a mile to trounce a good field, mainly thanks to a belter from Ryan Moore. He really got a tune out of the colt, who is impressively bred, by Oasis Dream, out of a Saddlers Wells mare, and the second, third and fifth won next time out, and the fourth was second. He looks the one to beat.

There isn’t a lot to split Cay Verde and Ahern from Royal Ascot, but at the prices, it has to be CAY VERDE. Only beaten three lengths at Royal Ascot after winning a good Listed Race at The Curragh, Mick Channon’s stable won the big juvenile race on Tuesday, and he looks to have another promising prospect to complete a rare double.

SADDLERS ROCK seems to finally have the ground that he has so desperately been yearning for and the dry underfoot conditions, and quick ground should give him the edge over the veterans. Still only a four year old colt, he was far from disgraced in the Gold Cup, when Godolphin got the fractions spot on, finishing one-two, with Colour Vision the Gold Cup winner, re-opposing here. Simeon is a tough Willie Mullins jumper, who won twice at Royal Ascot, but doesn’t have the class to compete with Saddlers Rock, who is held in the highest regard by John Oxx and his stable.

ESTIMATE was my Nap as the best bet for the last day of Royal Ascot, and she duly hacked up for Her Majesty in the Queen’s Vase, appropriately enough. Although now stepping down in trip, she looks a good thing in the fillies Group 3 Lillie Langtry Stakes. Exceptionally bred, she was well backed and obliged in style, winning by five lengths. Although the form hasn’t worked out too well, but as a three year filly she gets a bundle of weight, and as top rated already, she already has pounds in hand on the field. It look’s like she will get the pace on offer too, it should set up nicely.

The maiden looks trickier than a crafty fox, and given the Hannon pair will be well punted, we can’t look there, I like the Osbourne horse, but JP Spencer on board, and that means I don’t. GOLDEN CAUSEWAY looks good on paper, and looking through her entries, she must be held in quite high regard. Entries in the filly’s mile, two year old trophy are eye-catching and the Hills team have done well with their juveniles this year. Market support would be even more persuasive.

DUCTH ROSE has been winning well for the shrewd David O’ Meara yard, and he has now won four of his last five starts. The jump from maiden win to handicapping hatrick has seen the Dutch Art filly raised 26lb since the start of her run. Her form is strong, with the last win in particular, the only three to come out and run have finishing 1-4-2. The stable are having winners everywhere, and expect another strong show.

The last race of the day, another one of them pesky sixteen runner three year old handicaps, and arguments can be made about a few. It’s hard to find some value, but CLON BRULEE goes for the shrewd David Barron yard, and the form of his two handicap wins look good, next time out winners in both, and is 2lb well in.

2.15 Goodwood – Opinion (NB)
2.45 Goodwood – Cay Verde
3.15 Goodwood – Saddlers Rock
3.45 Goodwood – Estimate (Nap)
4.20 Goodwood – Golden Causeway
4.55 Goodwood – Dutch Rose
5.25 Goodwood – Clon Brulee

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