The second day is probably the most varied card of the week. Plenty of opportunities to make a few quid ante post here.
The National Hunt Chase
The first race is The National Hunt Chase, and I am very smug and pleased to have backed Teaforthree last year at 14/1, hopefully history repeats itself? A horse who looks an absolute out and out stayer is Vesper Bell for Willie Mullins. It is an incredible looking at the market, just how ludicrous some quotes are for horses that are unlikely to run, but 10/1 seems very fair. He is very unexposed, and beat potential Jewson horse Aupcharlie on debut, and has only had seven subsequent starts, the last winning a three mile chase at Punchestown, and looked to have plenty left in the tank, he’s the one for me. Looking at the market, very few look likely to run at the moment, the two obvious possibilities would be Keppols Hill and Rival D’Estruval. Godsmejudge is an interesting one, similar profile, steadily brought along, unexposed and an out and out stayer. At 20/1, he could be a lively outsider.
The Neptune Novices Hurdle
I’ve been a bit of a busy boy here, and already backed a few at decent prices. I flagged up The New One after winning at Cheltenham in October, and William Hill stuck their necks on the line, and went stand out 16/1 – it had to be taken. Even though he was chinned by At Fishers Cross last time out, he still sets a good standard around Prestbury Park, although his current price is a bit short for me. I backed Clondaw Kaempfer prior to his run in The Challow Hurdle, and think he got beaten by the ground more than anything. I’m on him at 16/1, and could be worth another nibble at 20/1, if the reports from Donald McCain are favourable. Pont Alexander and Taquin Du Seuil are two I am opposed, and the last one I have in the arsenal is Puffin Billy. He would be my initial prospect for next year’s RSA Chase, looks a lovely prospect and could be anything. He is the saver at 10/1. I still think The New One is the one to beat on all known form, although Puffin Billy carries maximum respect.
The RSA Chase
I pick two horses to follow based on their hurdling form, and how I think they will revert to fences, and generally come close when it comes to The RSA Chase, last year my two were Grands Crus (6/1) and Bobs Worth (10/1) ante post. The two I sided with this year are Boston Bob and Fingal Bay, both at 10/1. Fingal Bay proved to me to not back Phillip Hobbs horses, but I still like Boston Bob, and his chasing debut showed he has a natural flair for jumping. He wants three miles on good ground, and the 7/1 with Ladbrokes is tempting to back again. Dynaste won’t want a slog or a battle, and is skinny from an ante post perspective, I wouldn’t rule out David Pipe sending him to The Jewson. The rest all have muddling form, Our Father and Hadrians Approach look vulnerable. Willie Mullins will likely send Back in Focus and Aupcharlie elsewhere, and I don’t like Nicholls’s Rocky Creek, Unioniste and Sire Collognes. There isn’t an awful lot out there to beat.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase
Backed Sprinter Sacre in October at 5/4, and he will win by twelve lengths, Sizing Europe second if runs.
The Coral Cup
Again, not one from an ante post perspective, but those who appear well handicapped and likely to run at this moment in time look to be the David Pipe pair of Swing Bowler and Gevrey Chambertin. Both unbeaten hurdling this season, and look to have some lenient marks, with plenty of improvement to come from the stoutly bred duo.
The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
Minefield. To sum up. If you’ve had a bet in this, you are clearly in the know. Call Me Bubbles and Fatcatinthehat would be an interesting for Willie Mullins, who look likely to miss other races, and are down the pecking order of his juvenile hurdlers. Definitely not one to get involved in for me at such an early stage.
Champion Bumper
Another race I try to not get too involved in, as there is more guess work here than at a Derren Brown episode of cloak and dagger, I did have a nibble on Golantilla after his win at Cork at 10/1, but it’s a cautious one, even though he has a massive reputation, and a cracking turn of foot. Moyle Park has form tied in with Blackmail, and both could be lively ones come closer to the day.
Best Bet - Boston Bob
Next Best - The New One
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Sunday 27 January 2013
Cheltenham Day One - Ante Post Thoughts
I’ll try and collate my ante post thoughts, as well as already outlaying the portfolio. Some ante post players are obviously looking better than others!
The Supreme Novices Hurdle
I wrote pieces on both My Tent or Yours and Waaheb, both prior to their hurdling debuts, and I am still big fans of both. My Tent or Yours has been backed at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1, with Waheeb being taken at 12/1, 10/1, and once again at 16/1 with the drift after his second to Jezki last time out. I still like both, with preference for Nicky Henderson’s charge. He tanks through his races, and will be well suited to the fast pace, and like Waaheb, should improve with better ground. Jezki has run well in muddling graded races in Ireland, and despite being snapped up by JP, still doesn’t appeal at the prices. Nor does Un Atout or River Maigue, very short for winning nothing races last time out. I don’t like Paul Nicholls horses, so would be opposed to Dodging Bullets, and Puffin Billy and Melodic Rendezvous are likely to go for The Neptune instead.
The Arkle Chase
This looks to be a graveyard from an ante post perspective, as my most backed horse, that I really got stuck into, doesn’t even look likely to run. Captain Conan is still the value call for me if runs, and I think he looks a very smart chaser, winning over course and distance already this year, and following up smartly at Sandown. He’s been backed at 14/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 7/1, and would love to see him take on Simonsig. I have also backed Colour Squadron and Sire De Grugy at 20/1 as savers, but it is looking bleak. Looking at the market at the moment now, it is a definite no bet. Simonsig is very short, I don’t think Overturn represents value, with nothing else likely to run. Arvika Ligeonniare fell in the Irish Arkle, and at around the 10/1 mark, if forced to have a bet, that would be the each way play.
The Festival Handicap Chase
I will be sticking with two regular selections of mine, who both ran in the race with credit last year, and both look to be still well handicapped. The Package and Fruity ‘O Rooney look to have been laid out for this race throughout the season, and although no bets at the moment, I could be tempted very shortly.
The Champion Hurdle
I was unimpressed by Hurricane Fly’s run in The Irish Champion Hurdle, it was all so very similar, beating the same horses, by the same margins, it is rather worthless form. The horse I have been backing for the best part of 18 months for this race remains my selection – Grandouet. His re-appearance after a year out in The International was a fantastic run, and bearing in mind he gave a race fit Zarkander 4lb, to lose by two lengths was an excellent effort. He has course form, will relish better ground and a quicker pace, Barry Geraghty will hit the last still on the snaff. Irrespective what happens at Cheltenham aside from this, Grandouet wins, and it’s a happy and profitable Cheltenham. Two small savers are on Darlan and Oscar Whisky, both at 16/1.
The Cross Country Chase
I wouldn’t particularly like to get involved in a race like this, and haven’t done thus far. The two likely to tempt me are Balthazar King and Uncle Junior, both have won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course in the last season, and both have a touch of class, but I won’t be getting involved ante post.
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Quevega wins. Lump on the day, no play ante post.
Centenary Novices Chase
I’d be lucky to back the winner on the day, let alone seven weeks before, when the usual suspects, Henderson, Pipe et al, have yet to properly have a plot for this. There are a couple of eye-catchers with entries however. JP has two of them, Colour Squadron and Cantlow. Both look to want further judging by their novices chases, and if they start being nibbled in the market, it would be a very good sign indeed.
Best Bet - Grandouet
Next Best - My Tent Or Yours
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
The Supreme Novices Hurdle
I wrote pieces on both My Tent or Yours and Waaheb, both prior to their hurdling debuts, and I am still big fans of both. My Tent or Yours has been backed at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1, with Waheeb being taken at 12/1, 10/1, and once again at 16/1 with the drift after his second to Jezki last time out. I still like both, with preference for Nicky Henderson’s charge. He tanks through his races, and will be well suited to the fast pace, and like Waaheb, should improve with better ground. Jezki has run well in muddling graded races in Ireland, and despite being snapped up by JP, still doesn’t appeal at the prices. Nor does Un Atout or River Maigue, very short for winning nothing races last time out. I don’t like Paul Nicholls horses, so would be opposed to Dodging Bullets, and Puffin Billy and Melodic Rendezvous are likely to go for The Neptune instead.
The Arkle Chase
This looks to be a graveyard from an ante post perspective, as my most backed horse, that I really got stuck into, doesn’t even look likely to run. Captain Conan is still the value call for me if runs, and I think he looks a very smart chaser, winning over course and distance already this year, and following up smartly at Sandown. He’s been backed at 14/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 7/1, and would love to see him take on Simonsig. I have also backed Colour Squadron and Sire De Grugy at 20/1 as savers, but it is looking bleak. Looking at the market at the moment now, it is a definite no bet. Simonsig is very short, I don’t think Overturn represents value, with nothing else likely to run. Arvika Ligeonniare fell in the Irish Arkle, and at around the 10/1 mark, if forced to have a bet, that would be the each way play.
The Festival Handicap Chase
I will be sticking with two regular selections of mine, who both ran in the race with credit last year, and both look to be still well handicapped. The Package and Fruity ‘O Rooney look to have been laid out for this race throughout the season, and although no bets at the moment, I could be tempted very shortly.
The Champion Hurdle
I was unimpressed by Hurricane Fly’s run in The Irish Champion Hurdle, it was all so very similar, beating the same horses, by the same margins, it is rather worthless form. The horse I have been backing for the best part of 18 months for this race remains my selection – Grandouet. His re-appearance after a year out in The International was a fantastic run, and bearing in mind he gave a race fit Zarkander 4lb, to lose by two lengths was an excellent effort. He has course form, will relish better ground and a quicker pace, Barry Geraghty will hit the last still on the snaff. Irrespective what happens at Cheltenham aside from this, Grandouet wins, and it’s a happy and profitable Cheltenham. Two small savers are on Darlan and Oscar Whisky, both at 16/1.
The Cross Country Chase
I wouldn’t particularly like to get involved in a race like this, and haven’t done thus far. The two likely to tempt me are Balthazar King and Uncle Junior, both have won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course in the last season, and both have a touch of class, but I won’t be getting involved ante post.
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Quevega wins. Lump on the day, no play ante post.
Centenary Novices Chase
I’d be lucky to back the winner on the day, let alone seven weeks before, when the usual suspects, Henderson, Pipe et al, have yet to properly have a plot for this. There are a couple of eye-catchers with entries however. JP has two of them, Colour Squadron and Cantlow. Both look to want further judging by their novices chases, and if they start being nibbled in the market, it would be a very good sign indeed.
Best Bet - Grandouet
Next Best - My Tent Or Yours
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Monday 14 January 2013
Weekend Racing De-Brief
12.30 Wetherby – Many Clouds. IR Low 2.32, finishing position – 2nd
Many Clouds travelled nicely for Leighton Aspell, but was a very questionable ride, with Jason Maguire able to make all on second favourite Up and Go. Many Clouds got caught in a pocket behind two stragglers about half a mile out, before making stealthy late headway, to make around fifteen lengths, to take second late on. Giving weight to the winner, he may need further, but looks a very smart novice hurdler, and is highly thought of by trainer Oliver Sherwood.
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master. IR Low 1.37, finishing position – 2nd
Another disappointing result with Poole Master travelling like a dream throughout, and watching the replay, I was still shocked to see him lose. Tom Scudamore presses on early, and has them all at it about three out, before being seemingly outstayed by Fourjacks. The winner got a lovely ride by Brian Harding, and both pull clear from the third. Poole Master may be put away for a two and a half mile handicap chase at Cheltenham, and I wouldn’t write him off.
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge. IR Low 1.95, finishing position – 3rd
Highland Lodge was well backed before the off, but just like last year, he really didn’t appreciate the track, and his normally impressive jumping, was disappointing and sketchy. He looked awkward at his fences, and carried his head to the left, and set the race up for Rocky Creek. I would write off the race, as he clearly doesn’t handle the track. I wouldn’t consider him an RSA horse, but could be a sleeper if aiming for The JLT Speciality Handicap Chase over three miles on the first day.
2.25 Warwick – The Package. IR Low 2.1, finishing position – PU.
The biggest disappointment of the day, The Package travelled like a dream before meeting the third last all wrong and losing all momentum. Understandable why he traded so low, before three out, six of them pulled clear, and the place money looked absolutely guaranteed. I still think the world of him, and have to think the three mile handicap chase would be his aim for the season, if not The National. I will still be backing him where he goes next, and think he is a superstar.
3.00 Warwick – The New One. IR Low N/A, finishing position – 1st.
Won stylishly, and would be a definite player in The Neptune, having already got course and distance form, and is now the clear favourite for the two and a half mile contest. The trainer and jockey think the world of him, and he looks a very smart animal.
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge. IR Low 1.01, finishing position - 2nd.
Ran a stormer to get gubbed by Rigaden De Beauchene after out-battling Pete the Feat after jumping the last. Done at 1.01 on Betfair, it was a real blow, and really cemented the day’s over-riding emotion of so close and yet so far. A tremendous ride from Wayne Hutchinson, who was niggling away on the final bend, there will be a big prize awaiting Godsmejudge, who may go for something like The Eider Chase, or The Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Many Clouds travelled nicely for Leighton Aspell, but was a very questionable ride, with Jason Maguire able to make all on second favourite Up and Go. Many Clouds got caught in a pocket behind two stragglers about half a mile out, before making stealthy late headway, to make around fifteen lengths, to take second late on. Giving weight to the winner, he may need further, but looks a very smart novice hurdler, and is highly thought of by trainer Oliver Sherwood.
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master. IR Low 1.37, finishing position – 2nd
Another disappointing result with Poole Master travelling like a dream throughout, and watching the replay, I was still shocked to see him lose. Tom Scudamore presses on early, and has them all at it about three out, before being seemingly outstayed by Fourjacks. The winner got a lovely ride by Brian Harding, and both pull clear from the third. Poole Master may be put away for a two and a half mile handicap chase at Cheltenham, and I wouldn’t write him off.
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge. IR Low 1.95, finishing position – 3rd
Highland Lodge was well backed before the off, but just like last year, he really didn’t appreciate the track, and his normally impressive jumping, was disappointing and sketchy. He looked awkward at his fences, and carried his head to the left, and set the race up for Rocky Creek. I would write off the race, as he clearly doesn’t handle the track. I wouldn’t consider him an RSA horse, but could be a sleeper if aiming for The JLT Speciality Handicap Chase over three miles on the first day.
2.25 Warwick – The Package. IR Low 2.1, finishing position – PU.
The biggest disappointment of the day, The Package travelled like a dream before meeting the third last all wrong and losing all momentum. Understandable why he traded so low, before three out, six of them pulled clear, and the place money looked absolutely guaranteed. I still think the world of him, and have to think the three mile handicap chase would be his aim for the season, if not The National. I will still be backing him where he goes next, and think he is a superstar.
3.00 Warwick – The New One. IR Low N/A, finishing position – 1st.
Won stylishly, and would be a definite player in The Neptune, having already got course and distance form, and is now the clear favourite for the two and a half mile contest. The trainer and jockey think the world of him, and he looks a very smart animal.
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge. IR Low 1.01, finishing position - 2nd.
Ran a stormer to get gubbed by Rigaden De Beauchene after out-battling Pete the Feat after jumping the last. Done at 1.01 on Betfair, it was a real blow, and really cemented the day’s over-riding emotion of so close and yet so far. A tremendous ride from Wayne Hutchinson, who was niggling away on the final bend, there will be a big prize awaiting Godsmejudge, who may go for something like The Eider Chase, or The Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Friday 11 January 2013
Saturday Racing at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby
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Many Clouds has excellent form tied in with Gevrey Chambertin, Coneygree and the like, and is clearly a progressive novice hurdler. Even with a penalty, he will be tough to beat tomorrow, and is a course and distance winner already around Wetherby.
As will Poole Master, and it is interesting that Tom Scudamore travels to Wetherby instead of Kempton and Warwick for Pond House, and this will be one of the reasons why. Always going to be a chaser, he has progressed nicely in his two starts, and runs at a level that should be right up his street.
Another exciting novice chaser is Highland Lodge, who was very impressive last time out when out galloping Our Father at Cheltenham. He looks an absolute staying chaser in the making and possible perhaps a Welsh National horse in time. He will love the ground, and will likely gallop his rivals into submission. The presence of Rocky Creek will solely further enhance his price and reputation.
Another useful novice is The New One, who is a leading fancy for The Neptune Hurdle at The Cheltenham Festival, after building on his useful bumper form to win a nice novice hurdle at the track in October. He has a mark of 143, and over the extended two and a half miles, he will be tough to beat, at an albeit skinny price.
Regular readers of this blog will know my opinion of The Package. Timmy Murphy is back to ride him in a three mile handicap hurdle, and he can take advantage of a 13lb better off mark than his chase rating. The form of The Hennessy has worked out tremendously well, finishing behind The Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth, and Lexus Chase 1-2 in Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He is the best bet of the day.
The final fancy is somewhat speculative, but Alan King’s record in The Classic Chase speaks for itself and in my eyes it is an even stronger positive with Wayne Hutchinson on board. He rides Godsmejudge, who has built like a smart staying novice handicap chaser, brought about slowly. He ran with credit in three mile novice hurdles last year, and has taken to chasing well, winning a nice looking beginner’s chase last time out at Folkestone. Bradley and Pete the Feat will be tough to beat, but I’m hopeful of a big run.
12.30 Wetherby – Many Clouds
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge
2,25 Warwick – The Package (Nap)
3.00 Warwick – The New One
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Friday 4 January 2013
Saturday Racing at Chepstow, Sandown and Wincanton
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I don’t really like betting at Wincanton, but Gevrey Chambertin looks banker material, running in the two and a half mile handicap hurdle as opposed to stepping up in class. The half-brother to Grands Crus has excellent form tied in with the likes of Corrin Wood, Coneygree and Fourjacks, and an opening handicap mark of 130 looks extremely lenient. He should take this, en route to much greater things.
Big Fella Thanks was somewhat of an unlucky loser last time in The Becher Chase at Aintree, travelling extremely well, before finding trouble in running, and tiring towards the end of the extended three mile slog. He is dropped down in trip in to two mile five furlongs for the first time in forever, and he runs off an unrevised mark. On his old form he is still very well handicapped, despite being the ripe old age of eleven.
I tipped up and backed Teaforthree ante post in The Welsh National and even now, it can be stated that he still looks something of a good thing. Rebecca Curtis’s Cheltenham Festival winner has had two runs to get him spot on, and has travelled in style during both run; in The Hennessy and in a handicap chase at Cheltenham. He ticks every box for The Welsh National, course form, will love the ground, and has been laid out for the race. He will take all of the beating.
Court Minstrel chased home Dodging Bullets and River Maigue in a Cheltenham juvenile hurdle, and looks a good price for The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney. Nicky Henderson has two runners, and given his record in the race, they are obviously respected. The form of Court Minstrel’s last run looks the best piece of form in the book, despite Pendra being something of a sleeper in the field.
The form of The Hennessy has been franked in recent weeks with First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay finishing first and second in The Lexus Chase in Ireland, and Teaforthree well backed for The Welsh National. Seventh in The Hennessy was Fruity O’ Rooney, who tired in the latter stages and it is a massive plus that he is dropping down to three miles. Although the ground would be a slight worry, he looks the most talented in a tricky and trappy looking handicap.
14.05 Wincanton – Gevrey Chambertin (Nap)
14.25 Sandown - Court Minstrel
14.40 Wincanton – Big Fella Thanks
15.20 Chepstow – Teaforthree
15.40 Sandown – Fruity O’Rooney
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
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