Cambridgeshire Day at Newmarket

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Newmarket, Cambridgeshire Day, an absolute feast of racing to indulge on, and we don’t mess around; our Nap goes in the first. STEELER has been crying, screaming, pleading to be run over a mile, and this tough colt for Mark Johnston should be good enough to win The Royal Lodge Stakes. He ran a good second to Dundonnell, who followed up with a good second to Toronado. He won a good listed race at Goodwood, again staying on well. He is top rated, has a top jockey, is tough as nails and looks a fantastic bet to open the days punting.

The other two fancies are more speculative, and although not as bombproof in my eyes, are just as respected. ROSDHU QUEEN is a improving filly of William Haggas who won The Lowther Stakes at York in a very impressive manner. I love the fact J P Murtagh is booked for the ride, and this Invincible Spirit filly’s style of riding should have her prominent, and presuming front running tactics are employed, she may prove hard to beat if trying to make all. Maureen warrants respect, but at the prices, Rosdhu Queen makes plenty of appeal.

BEAUTY PARLOUR is an extremely interesting runner with Sir Henry Cecil now training for the owners, and this Deep Impact offspring is the top rated three year old filly in the world. Only beaten once in her career, when not given the best of rides by Christophe Soumillion. It was a bit of a messy race, but back down to a mile should suit her, and she looks all class. Given her previous record, form, and Sir Henry Cecil’s record with top grade fillies, she should be around an even money chance, despite Elusive Kate being a worthy opponent. Elusive Kate will likely set a decent pace, and I expect Beauty Parlour to sweep down the outside, winning in the final strides, and cue a cheeky celebration from the extravagant Belgian in the saddle.

SWIFTLY DONE is a very progressive four year old for Tony Carroll, and given the manner of his run at Goodwood, he looks to be on a very pleasing mark, and has an excellent chance in something of a minefield. The Cambridgeshire has a 34 runner field, and countless plots and ploys, and although lots of unexposed runners, I can immediately put a line through many. Three year olds have a poor record, as have those who have won last time out, trends wise anyway. Making Eyes and Navajo Chief have leading claims over the trip and strike outside appeal, but Swiftly Done is fancied, and on ante post at 33/1, I am still very happy with him. He will handle any ground and Jimmy Fortune is booked in the saddle.

No overly strong opinion of the fillies’ nursery. But there are two stand outs on pedigree and the manner of their maiden wins last time out. RED TURBAN is a Cheveley Park Kyllachy filly who stayed on well over six furlongs at Haydock in a rather pleasing fashion under Ted Durcan. The second that day followed up and finished second to Supernova Heights by four lengths, but she gets 7lb, and that as a line looks strong. She is entitled to come on for her first run. GHANAIAN followed up a good second at Doncaster when tiring over a mile, to win at Lingfield last time out and has a fairly open mark of 75 to play with. A Shamardal Godolphin home bred, she looks open to progression and has Mikael Barzalona on her.

I tipped up CAPE CLASSIC last time out at Doncaster, and the colt seems to have found his trip, seven furlongs being the key to him. He won very well that day, and Highland Colori came out and ran well in the Ayr Silver Cup two weeks ago to frank the form. He is 10lb higher, but is still fancied to run well. As is IDLER, a course and distance winner, who sneaks in at the bottom of the weights for Mark Johnston and SDS. He is another typical Mark Johnston type, who will keep winning and keep creeping up the weights once the penny starts to drop, much like Fulbright and Sir Graham Wade. He won a good handicap here last time out, rallying to win once headed over six furlongs, and should appreciate going back to seven. Up 5lb, he still has bold claims.

The same can be said about ENERY, who has now rattled up a quick hatrick and has struck up a good partnership with Franny Norton, and has finally found his trip, winning twice over a mile and a half, and once over a mile and three furlongs. The Teofilo colt is up another 6lb, but is in good heart, and is thriving. A massive eye catcher was MARSHGATE LANE at the Goodwood festival, staying on well and running on towards the finish over a mile and three furlongs, and the step up in trip should suit. Three further winners have come from that race, and the colt will progress further.


1.55 Newmarket – Steeler (Nap)
2.25 Newmarket – Rosdhu Queen
3.00 Newmarket – Beauty Parlour (Nb)
3.40 Newmarket – Swiftly Done (Ew)
4.15 Newmarket – Ghanaian & Red Turban
4.50 Newmarket – Cape Classic & Idler
5.25 Newmarket – Marshgate Lane & Enery



The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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Friday Racing at Newmarket

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The Oh So Sharp Stakes kicks off Newmarket’s Fillies Mile Day on Friday, on a card where the females are in the spotlight and with some prospective classic fillies for next year. Godolphin have a firm grip on many of the races, including the favourite in the Fillies mile, and they also have POWER OF LIGHT, an impressive maiden winner on debut, absolutely bolting up two weeks ago at Newcastle, winning by seven lengths. Exceptionally bred, there are questions surrounding all of her rivals, and with Mikael Barzalona in the plate on The Rowley Mile, and she looks to be a filly going places. She could turn out to be a prospective 1000 Guineas horse in the making.

The 1.45 listed contest is the most competitive race on the card, with a host of improving fillies competing, many of whom that are running down in class. Thistle Bird was a good winner last time out, beating Fulbright, who beat another horse I fancy in Tazahum, at Sandown. Godolphin always have a strong hand, and have Irish History and Falls of Lora, but both seem to be going the wrong way, as opposed to progressive types. Dank won a Group Three impressively at Sandown last time out, beating Lady’s First and Moonies My Name. The most interesting runner looks to be CHIGUN, who was tipped up on the blog last time out when romping home in a strong Ascot handicap. The Oasis Dream filly made all to win by four lengths, and in doing so got a revised mark of 99. She is clearly progressing at a rate of knots, and there could be much more to come, and if able to dictate things, could nick the race from the front.

The Nayef Joel Stakes is an impressive gathering of milers, many of whom have either been dodging Frankel, or been battered and bruised by him, for the best part of a season and a half. Most Improved won an awful St James Palace Stakes, but the three year olds look a bad crop this year, and that would similarly rule out Stipulate, Trumpet Major, Saigon and Sovereign Debt too. Fanunalter is much travelled, but has flopped twice on the course, and the filly Joviality has yet to win on the course at three attempts. Premier Loco was a good second in this last year, and is respected after a good effort winning The Celebration Mile. He was last however when Side Glance was third in The York Stakes, and both have trouble with their consistency. An interesting runner is TAZAHUM for Paul Hanagan and Sir Michael Stoute, on the back of an unlucky second last time out at Sandown. He got bumped and checked by Fulbright, and was unlucky to not have The Stewards overturn the decision, and is quickly turned out again, so obviously in good heart at home. Fourth in the race last year, he has settled better, and travels much smoother than last year, and has been brought on a lot more patiently. The colt looks open to further improvement, and is a course and distance winner as well.

Certify looks a worthy favourite for The Fillies Mile, and it’s a race that Godolphin have an excellent record in. She is the only filly in the race to have won over a mile before, and beat subsequent Group One winner Sky Lantern over the course in The Sweet Solero Stakes, She will take all the beating, but one I like at the prices is WINSILI for William Buick and John Gosden. An impressively bred filly by Juddmonte Farms, she ran on well on debut to win over the course, staying well over seven furlongs. Stepped up to a mile, she a ridiculous amount of trouble in running. Godolphin had three runners that day, and each one did a number on the filly, forcing her to go widest of all, before staying on well towards the finish, under hands and heels. She will likely run a strong race at a price, and I expect her to if not win, finish second to Certify.

1.15 Newmarket – Power of Light
1.45 Newmarket – Chigun
2.20 Newmarket – Tazahum
2.55 Newmarket – Winsili



The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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Tuesday Racing at Beverley and Folkestone

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Flat racing at Beverley and Folkestone on Tuesday, with some interesting runners, Beverley in particular looks to have some decent chances for connections that thrive in that part of the country.

The first race looks a great chance for Future Wonder to carry on the stables good form, with four winners inside the last week, the Brian Ellison’s yard are in fine fettle, and so is the filly. She has won two sellers this summer, and kept on well over a mile and a quarter last time out. Stepped up further to a mile and a half should bring out more improvement for the three year old, and she will take all the beating.

Ponty Acclaim gets weight all round in the conditions race, which brings out a good mix of some of Yorkshire’s most versatile sprinters. Dandy Nicholls has recent winner Tax Free, previous group winner Free Zone for Bryan Smart, and Kieren Fallon gets the leg up on the 104 rated Es Que Love. Ponty Acclaim gets 5lb and upwards from the field however and the three year old filly can get her season back on track down in grade after running behind the likes of Hamish McGonagall, Pearl Secret and Borderlescott so far this year.

Paul Hanagan rides Altharoos for the boss, Sheikh Hamdan and Sir Michael Stoute in the 3.40 and the well bred son of Sakhee looks like he will shed the maiden tag at the third attempt. Green on debut, he stayed on well to finish third in a good Newbury maiden, before losing by a nose at Brighton, again staying on well over seven furlongs. The longer trip should suit, and he sets a decent standard.

Swift Encounter can be excused on his two sub-par runs so far this season, and looks very well handicapped off a mark of 67, and runs over the scene of his course and distance maiden win last season. He needed the run on his first appearance of the season, and then got bogged down in the heavy ground next time out over a mile.
Dropped down in trip, and down 6lb for the two runs, he looks dangerous at the foot of the weights for Ann Duffield, who has a 19% strike rate at Beverley this season.


2.10 Beverley – Future Wonder
3.10 Beverley – Ponty Acclaim
3.40 Beverley – Altharoos (Nap)
4.10 Beverley – Swift Encounter


Folkestone has an equally trappy card, and it looks to be one of those days were nothing is an obvious penalty kick, unless the money comes however, and you make like you’re hanging the washing out– and peg it. Hilarious, enough jokes, more ‘osses.

Colourist is a typical George Baker sort, well held in maidens, turns up in a handicap off a mark in the mid-sixties and just so happy to find improvement, beautiful coincidence eh? The Dutch Art colt was well beaten at Chepstow by a Ron Harris typical soft ground loving sprinter, and on better conditions at Folkestone, he should be better still, and is relatively unexposed.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the Henry Candy yard, and they seem in good nick lately, Amy Scott has been riding well, but stable jockey Dane O’ Neill rides Gull Rock in the six furlong maiden, and the Ishiguru filly is the only one with any form whatsoever in an absolute horrendous maiden. Fortunately Richard Hughes rides a Richard Hannon runner, so it will help the price of ours here, but seriously, she should win this doing handstands, cart-wheels and any other sort of tricks learnt watching The Olympics.

I was warned about Centrifugal last time out under a penalty, and the Pivotal gelding duly obliged, making it all look relatively easy, with the finesse of a Andrea Pirlo free kick. Franny Norton is riding a good few winners for the Mark Johnston team as of late, he won on him last time out, and retains the ride. He is well in under a penalty, and should secure the hatrick.

Peter Chapple-Hyam has been a man on the comeback track this season, his two year olds in particular thriving, and he has the unexposed filly Dark Orchid to go to war with in the 4.30. Form figures of 006 in maidens showed little, but the money was down on handicap debut with Ryan Moore booked, and she was unlucky third of fourteen, staying on, without threatening. The filly is stepped up to a mile and a quarter for the first time, and on pedigree the trip should suit, and off a mark of 55, she looks to be very well handicapped.


2.30 Folkestone – Colourist (Nap)
3.00 Folkestone – Gull Rock
3.30 Folkestone – Centrifugal
4.30 Folkestone – Dark Orchid



The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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Current Ante Post Shortlist/Portfolio 17/9/12

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Current Ante Post Shortlist

Hawkeyethenoo 16/1 & Pintura 16/1 (Ayr Gold Cup)
Kirthill 25/1 & Mull of Killough 25/1 (Cambridgeshire)
Orfevre 8/1 & Snow Fairy 8/1 (Arc)
Countrywide Flame 10/1 & Olympiad 10/1 (Cesarewitch)
Finians Rainbow 8/1 & Grand Crus 6/1 (King George)
Fingal Bay 10/1 & Boston Bob 10/1 (RSA)
Grandouet - 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Sir Des Champs 6/1 & Bobs Worth 8/1 (Gold Cup)
Big Bucks Evens (World Hurdle)
Sprinter Sacre Evens (Champion Chase)
Colour Squadron 20/1 & Captain Conan 14/1 (Arkle)
Dawn Approach 4/1 (2000 Guineas)
Big Break 25/1 (1000 Guineas)

Looking at the market for the Ayr Gold Cup, Doc Hay immediately jumps off the page, tipped up by Timeform to keep an eye on a couple of weeks ago, before getting up late to win The Portland Handicap at Doncaster. With that win, he could be well in providing he runs. Pintura could be worth another look if he gets in, and looks to have trickled down the weights for a respected yard and shrewd owner, who will no doubt want a runner or eight. My main fancy is the ante post favourite in HAWKEYETHENOO for local trainer Jim Goldie, fresh from his Stewards Cup heroics. He will no doubt have had this in mind for a while, and as long as the ground comes up good, he will be a big threat, with Graham Lee on his back, who has been exceptional since switching to the flat.

The two big Newmarket handicaps are very open affairs on the bare face of things, aren’t they? Maybe not. COUNTRYWIDE FLAME won impressively from start to finish at Chester in a decent looking handicap, and the winner came from the same race last year. He should come on a lot for that run, and looks to be very well handicapped on his Triumph Hurdle form, he is respected. As is the classy looking Olympiad, who won a two mile handicap on good ground at York. The exceptionally well bred colt for Sir Robert Ogden should be a group horse on pedigree and looks to have been very well treated at the weights, he looks a cup horse and possible Melbourne Cup horse for The Master of Rosewell, and if he turns up, would warrant maximum respect. These two set the standard in this year’s Cesarewitch, and in the Cambridgeshire, there are three on my current shortlist. I am really sweet on KIRTHILL and the manner of his win last time out at York. He put his bad run at Goodwood behind him, and although burdened with a hefty weight with Danadana now ruled out, this will have full attention of the Cumani stable, and that man Fallon. The other two I like at bigger prices around the 33/1 mark are Navajo Chief and Mull of Killough. Both have flirted with the idea of pattern level but are tough hardened handicappers, and with strong form in these big fields. Both have course form to their name, and look to have had the race as their short term targets.

Simonsig has been trimmed as looks like he may not go down the Arkle route, possible being affected by the unfortunate and heart-breaking news surrounding Spirit Son. As such I have backed Colour Squadron and Captain Conan, one a Hobbs horse bought by JP and another a Henderson horse, both were said to have been chasers, not really expected much over hurdles, and when sent chasing could and should improve.. The two both fought out the Tolworth Hurdle, before disappointing later on in the season. Colour Squadron fell when looking like beating Montbazon in a hot novice hurdle, and finished second in the Grade 1 Champion Juvenile Hurdle at Punchestown. Nicky Henderson was in two minds about putting Captain Conan away for the season, but he ran a good second behind Supreme second Darlan at Aintree, and the French bred is a winner over the sticks at Auteuil, and should thrive jumping the larger obstacles. Much like Fingal Bay and Boston Bob, big, scopey sorts, who could be anything. Fingal Bay should have won the The Sefton at Aintree, and given the size and presence of the animal, he should be an absolute beast over fences. His form with Simonsig, and similarly other juveniles should put him right up there amongst the seasons top novice chasers. As should Boston Bob for Willie Mullins, looks another terrific prospect for owner Howard Johnson. Second in the Albert Bartlett, when the stable weren’t really firing, he looks to be a readymade chaser and all class, I expect at this stage, one of the two to progress and win The RSA Chase at Cheltenham.

The Gold Cup market is headed by two horses at backed ante post at the previous festival, and as we know, course form around Prestbury Park, is a golden ticket to the chocolate factory. Bobs Worth was a worthy winner of a pretty good RSA Chase, beating solid 160+ horses in First Lieutenant and Grands Crus, in a very smart manner. He is a course specialist, and Nicky Henderson will no doubt be aiming him for the big day, on the race he won with Long Run in 2010. The other winner who steps up to the top grade is SIR DES CHAMPS, an outrageously impressive winner of the Jewson Novice Chase over two and a half miles. He won doing handstands, and proved the trip wasn’t a problem, when winning a Grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown, on desperate ground. He is unbeaten, and is another Cheltenham specialist, 2 from 2, winning the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle in 2011.

I won’t talk about Grandouet too much, because he is my best bet of the festival for next year. At 12/1 – he was nothing short of impressive last year. He should have beaten Zarkander at Aintree in 2011 before being brought down, and the manner of his International Hurdle win confirmed his promise and potential for me. He is classy, unexposed, and will be fresh from an extended break missing the festival last year.

The two bankers who are even money and it are a bit of a difficult one to throw in are Big Bucks and Sprinter Sacre. They aren’t puntable prices as of yet, as is backing any even money shot so far away from the day itself. Rather than backing Frankel ante post at evens, I was much more comfortable backing him after final declarations were announced two days before the race itself at around 4/7, and although they both look bombproof in weak markets,

The two most immediate ones are Finians Rainbow and Grand Crus for The King George, can’t really put in multiples for some reason as cross-contingency or something similar. Long Run won The King George after The Feltham, and Grand Crus’s time was quicker last year than Kauto’s. He looks to be a flat track animal, and Finians Rainbow looked like the step in trip suited when winning over two and a half miles around Aintree.

BIG BREAK, a full sister to Famous Name, hacked up in a good Leopardstown maiden last week; Weld said he thinks she could be a Guineas filly. I asked Paddy Power for a price before she won her maiden, and they offered 50s, and then put her in the market at 33s, and the reply I got was basically ‘didn’t see shit’. Schmucks. Then wins and 25s. Disgusting, but they know the game, and once DK Weld says she’s a nice filly, the people spoke, poured in, poured a glass, and put her away Dermot my boy, we’ll have some of that. The males version is dominated and headed by the unbeaten, the unmatched and unparalleled Dawn Approach for Jim Bolger and Sheikh Mohamed, who should learn from the mistakes of Dubai Prince and Casamento and leave the colt in France. This gorgeous colt resembles his old man so much, chestnut with a white face, he really is a cracker. Expected to do a Camelot, and win Racing Post Trophy, 2000 Guineas and Derby. Get on early… providing he stays with Mr Bolger and chooses to enjoy the scenery of County Kilkenny.


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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Doncaster's St Leger Meeting - Friday: Day Three

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Friday is when the heavy artillery is deployed, still on a recoup mission from Estimate, and there are a fair few horses that have been in my long term thinking, and I intend to get the overalls dirty so to speak. Let’s not waste time hyping it up, and let’s get stuck in.

The Flying Childers is a five furlongs sprint for the speediest juveniles around, the G2 contest generally favours those who ran well at Royal Ascot, such as past winners Fleeting Spirit, Zebedee and Requinto. That makes HOYAM an immediate positive for Michael Bell and Jamie Spencer. The filly ran a game second to Ceiling Kitty in The Queen Mary Stakes, before finishing third behind Maureen over six furlongs her stamina stretched. She won last time out in a listed race at York, beating Fire Eyes hard held, under a very cheeky trademark Jamie Spencer ride. Sir Prancelot is respected given the manner of his runs in France behind Reckless Abandon, but getting 3lb and at the prices; Hoyam looks the much better option.

TOMINATOR was extremely unlucky in The Ebor, and duly made amends next time out at Chester in a hot looking handicap, coming away and winning well. Up 2lb to a mark of 98, he is still 2lb below the mark where he finished a game fourth in the same race last year. He is thriving, and should be there or thereabouts, at around the 8/1 mark, he is a cracking each way bet. Old Hundred won this well last year, and is respected, as is Sir Graham Wade for Mark Johnston, who met trouble in running and still won last time out, he is officially 6lb in at the official weights, and is a very deserved favourite. However the manner of his flop in The Melrose is still something of a worry, and he has been on the go all summer long.

SADDLERS ROCK finally mixed it with the big boys, showing a tremendous attitude to win this last year, despite Opinion Poll and Frankie Dettori came up looming on the outside pulling double. He won The Goodwood Cup in style, under a great ride from J P Murtagh, who is back in the saddle after Niall McCullagh’s horrible attempt of front running at York. Under a more patient ride, with Murtagh expecting to control the fractions, the field get 4lb from Colour Vision due to his Group One penalty, and I expect the four year old colt to make amends in style for The Emerald Isle.

The May Hill Stakes is a fillies G2 over the Doncaster straight mile, and is a race where Godolphin have a terrific record, so it would be no surprise to see Certify bolt up for Mikael Barzalona. She comfortably beat Sky Lantern, who went on to win The Moyglare Stakes at The Curragh, and she sets an impressive standard. The third that day ran very well, and may come on for that run and that is the well bred REYAADAH for Charlie Hills and Paul Hanagan. The filly hung left on Newmarket’s infamous undulating track, and on a flat galloping track like Doncaster, she may be worth a punt at double figure prices to fill the placings.

ASHDAN turned up at a Newmarket maiden with a massively touted reputation, and duly obliged, coming away to win well by three lengths from a field full of promising juveniles. A conditions stakes should be well within the realms of this promising colt, which has entries for The Royal Lodge, Dewhurst, Racing Post Trophy and next year’s Derby. No Jet Lag won a nothing race last time out, and will be under-priced based on the form figures next to his name, but the form is worthless.

Duke of Firenze will be ridiculously short in the 4.05, a six and a half furlong handicap, and although well in officially at the weights, I am not the type of person to back a 2/1f in a sixteen runner handicap, that is one sure fire way to go skint. Instead there are a couple of interesting contenders are very chunky comparable prices. LADIES ARE FOREVER runs off top weight but is a listed and group winning filly, who is a smart home-bred in those familiar R Bond silks, for trainer Geoff Oldroyd. She runs well fresh, and will appreciate the drop in class; she has amazingly never before run in a handicap. Off a mark of 104, the trainer will be looking to capitalise on being dropped 5lb this season by the handicapper. Another interesting contender is CAPE CLASSIC, who was the long term ante post favourite for The Stewards Cup before losing his way in the summer. A strong third last time out at Haydock hinted at a renaissance, and off a lowly mark of 90, he could be the dark horse in a field, and hopefully goes un-noticed with all the attention focused on the jolly.

The last race is another muddling affair, a fifteen runner classified stakes race, and there are unfortunately no immediate eye-catchers. Pink Damsel had the penny drop late on to win a maiden over a mile and a half, and although disappointing in the Ribblesdale, was by no means disgraced, providing she bounces back, she is a danger, but Roger Varian horses are generally under-priced animals. The one that catches the eye is KEENE DANCER for Sir Michael Stoute and this filly was ten lengths down to The Fugue on her debut late last year. She built on that to finish fourth at Salisbury before winning a maiden and a handicap over a mile at Windsor. Her run at Goodwood was too bad to be true, and could be a case of, like so many before her, just not handling the downs. She is still unexposed, and should get a mile and a quarter, and is taken to bounce back in style.


1.15 Doncaster – Hoyam (Nb)
1.50 Doncaster – Tominator (Ew)
2.20 Doncaster – Saddlers Rock (Nap)
2.55 Doncaster – Reyaadah (Ew)
3.30 Doncaster – Ashdan (Nb)
4.05 Doncaster – Ladies Are Forever (Ew) & Cape Classic (Ew)
4.40 Doncaster – Keene Dancer



The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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Doncaster's St Leger Meeting - Thursday: Day Two

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The second day at Doncaster, and the meeting is gradually moving through the gears in terms of class and the quality steps up remarkably as we gather pace towards Camelot’s bid for the elusive Triple Crown for the Coolmore family on Saturday.

A good mix on Thursday, and the opener is a typical race that I did alright with at York’s meeting, a trappy minefield of a handicap, twenty runners, but the one going the right way is ANNECDOTE for Jonathan Portman and JP Fahy. The filly finished second in a maiden behind Maureen, beaten two lengths, before dispatching another Hughes/Hannon runner in the form of the 82 rated Botanica snugly last time out at Salisbury. The filly has been given a mark of 79, which seems to be very lenient, and she looks the one who has turned out to be on the handicappers good side.

The Sceptre Stakes is a fillies group three, that looks a very open affair, with several fillies in the field that have already acquired that elusive black type, and will have them seeking out a certain Galileo et al, to be covered in glory, pardon the pun. Gamilati won twice for Godolphin in Meydan, but looked laboured when behind Regal Realm and Inetrobil at Goodwood. Sunday Times, Miss Work of Art and Bonnie Brae are all 100+ rated fillies, but it usually pays to follow the unexposed filly on the up. That profile certainly fits SENTARIL who was an unlucky second behind Ishvana at Royal Ascot, before flopping at York last time out, but she did have the likes of Producer, Aljamaaheer and Lethal Force, Bannock and Sovereign Debt in behind her that day, and rated 105, she sets a solid standard. Perfect Step fits the criteria for Roger Varian, behind Sovereign Debt two starts ago, but on that form line has work to do with Sentaril.

The £300,000 sales race is an absolute maze. If you back the winner in this, you really should treat yourself to a nice cup of tea, and an extra-large slice of cake. Flyman goes for the Fahey and Hanagan team and has apparently been working well at home. As has The Gold Cheongsam for Jeremy Noseda, that has been punted into a disgustingly short priced favourite. Ballydoyle won this last year with Reply, and have Group placed Parliament Square for them, but giving weight all round and the not so boy wonder Joseph on board, he isn’t for me. The one I like is HOTOTO who won the big sales races at York, and has form with another I fancy tomorrow Hoyam. He was an impressive winner at York, and has good form back to Royal Ascot. His trainer pinpoints these big sales races, and rated 102, he is rated only second behind Parliament Square, he looks a decent bit of value and has gone relatively unnoticed.

I have been sweet on ESTIMATE for a while now, backing her at Ascot and York, and although she tasted defeat last time out, she was by no way disgraced. She got tired in the final strides, but as a three year old filly she will be improving at a rate of knots, and beaten three lengths by Wild Coco that day, she now gets 12lb from the four year old through weight for age, although Sir Henry Cecil’s filly is entitled to come on for the run as well. A flat track like Doncaster should eek more improvement out of Her Majesty, and once again this year it will be hat’s off for the Queen!

I ear-marked a couple when seeing the preliminary declarations for this, and Cape of Hope was one, but I had no idea he would be so short in the market, and at the prices, the exciting SPACE SHIP looks much better value for John Gosden and William Buick, who have an incredible record at the track, and in particular this season. A son of Galileo, out of a Grade 1 winning mare in America, he has a Racing Post Trophy entry, and should build on a solid debut when fourth at Sandown.

Prodigality was going to be a warm favourite before being declared a late non-runner, which presumably gives him a thumbs up for The Portland handicap later on in the week. That opens the door for ELUSIVE FLAME for Dominic Elsworth and William Buick, who is a progressive three year old filly, who although is at a career high mark of 88, is progressing nicely in those famous J Smith silks. She won a nursery at this meeting last year, and has been going the right way, starting the season on a mark of 85, holding her form well, racing exclusively over seven furlongs, but the manner of her run last time out indicated she may want to drop down to six. Sohraab and Goldream are respected for shrewd connections.

The final handicap looks another tricky affair but the manner in which TRADE STORM won against a strong field at York indicates he is a very smart colt indeed. The four year old son of Trade Fair came with a good turn of foot, and if he reproduces that on Town Moor he should be hard to beat, despite a 6lb rise, he has won at the track before in a conditions race as a three year old over seven furlongs.

1.15 Doncaster – Annecdote
1.50 Doncaster – Sentaril
2.20 Doncaster – Hototo
2.55 Doncaster – Estimate (Nap)
3.30 Doncaster – Space Ship
4.05 Doncaster – Elusive Flame
4.35 Doncaster – Trade Storm


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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BMW Italian Open Tipping

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Just doing a brief bit of research on the BMW Italia Open with no PGA Tour, means The European Tour is solely flying the flag for our weekly punting disappointments in the world of JJMSports.

I peeled off a few stats based on what I believe to be crucial around the course, and then added in previous course form, current tour form as well as how good a price the player was. I won’t bore you with the grim details, but it’s all in a ridiculously messy Excel spreadsheet, all would make no sense if someone read this without any previous knowledge, alien to Joe Publc.

Anyhoo, the two that were standouts were Nicolas Colsaerts and Thorbjorn Olesen, but both are far too short for my liking, around the 10/1 and 18/1 mark. Will Colsaerts win this tournament one in every eleven? Unlikely, the European Tour is a minefield, where anyone can come out the pack and nick it. Similarly with Olesen, I’m not convinced he wins three/four if he plays this every week for a year.

The one’s at the shorter end of the spectrum are JOOST LUITEN and THOMAS AIKEN, both of whom come out well in terms of overall consistency, but both are liable to throw in the odd low round, and that could set them up. Joost Luiten has been knocking on the door for a while now, and I just have a feeling that if he starts strong, he could go deep. He is still only 26, and still learning. He missed the cut last week, but before that finished T21 in the USPGA Championship, and a solid T27 in the Omega Masters, throwing his chance away with a final round 73. The extra few days rest could have made him that bit fresher.

Thomas Aiken has shown glimpses, most notably a seventh in The Open, where he should have finished better, but for flagging in the final round with a 72. Still, a respectable effort, in a strong field. He missed the cut at The USPGA and The Omega Masters. He came back to form last week, recovering from an opening round average 71, with a solid 66 in Round 4, finishing T26 on -4. If he carries on in a similar manner he could be coming good, and will have his confidence restored by the way he finished off his round. He looks a decent price.

The remaining three are more hopefuls, and are outsiders are very speculative prices, but in the words of my hero Derrick Trotter, he who dares; win. Actually, no need to be greedy, they don’t have to win; a place will do me beautifully.

Firstly, ALASTAIR FORSYTH is a HUGE price at top price of 200/1 given his stats and performance on tour. He doesn’t hit the ball far, but his iron play is really something else, and although getting on a bit, he ranks 29th on tour in terms of driving accuracy and 65th on tour in greens in regulation. He has previous course form, and is something of a dark horse, who finished T15 at The Scottish Open in Aberdeen. If it clicks, he could be good value for a place.

IGNACIO GARRIDO fits a similar mould, and was T11 in the same Scottish Open. He missed the cut at The KLM Open, but he has had two Top 10’s this season, and is a ma-husive price. The final trio of the longshot kids is GREGORY HAVRET, and is someone I have backed a fair few times without any such luck thus far. Another with strong stats for his driving accuracy and greens in regulation, providing he can make peace with his putter he has a chance of shooting low. In the money 13 out of 21 events so far this term, but only one Top 10. If you look through his records, he usually comes good towards the back end of the season, hopefully so this week.

J Luiten 45/1 (Coral) – 1pt Ew
T Aiken 55/1 (Sportingbet) –0.75pts EW
G Havret 150/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Coral) – 0.5pts EW
I Garrido 200/1 (SkyBet) – 0.25pts EW
A Forsyth 200/1 (SkyBet, Betfred, Blue Square) – 0.5pts EW


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Doncaster's St Leger Meeting - Wednesday; Day One

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DONCASTER; not the flashiest, not the most fashionable, but a bloody good racecourse, full of charming and colourful locals, and a real sense of racing in Yorkshire, fresh on the back of the overwhelmingly successful meeting at York last month. One of the fairest tracks on the country, a good flat track, as opposed to the difficult undulating conditions of notorious tracks in the south. There are a few runners that I have in my notebook and are on the shortlist to follow for the season, noted down at various times., here are some of those that were seen as eye-catchers throughout the season thus far, and have solid claims on the first day of the meeting.

HIPSTER was a very impressive winner when shedding the maiden tag at Epsom at the third attempt, under a typical no nonsense Jim Crowley ride. That was followed up by a good second in a Kempton nursery behind subsequent Group Three winner Glass Office, throwing his chance away when hanging badly and still showing signs of greenness. Gelded since, he finished third under Seb Sanders in a good looking Newmarket nursery stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time. On an unchanged mark of 81, and Jim Crowley back on board, he is going the right way.

UPWARD SPIRAL is a very well-bred Teofilo filly who was quickly snapped up by Qatar Racing after an impressive maiden win at Sandown on Brigadier Gerard Day. Despite the form of that race not looking great, she ran a blinder at Royal Ascot to finish fourth in the Queen Mary Stakes, meeting trouble in running and staying on well towards the end. Stepping up to six furlongs for the first time should suit, and she sets the standard on form.

SOLE POWER runs in The Scarborough Stakes, and he is the class horse in the field, and providing he runs to form, he should be much, much better than his rivals, top rated, and he has the ground to suit as well. J P Murtagh a significant booking and a massive plus next to him.

BEATEN UP wouldn’t be an original choice, and I wouldn’t be betting on this, but the manner of his three victories last year suggested he would have a potential group one in him. He disappointed in Meydan and Epsom in The Coronation Stakes, running too free in both, refusing to settle. Gelded since, and coming back off a break, he returns to where he was an impressive course and distance winner last year and should be winning a race of this nature on his road to recovery.

BALTY BOYS is a horse who was etched in last season, and could be worth another try in a market where there is little value in the front trio. Strictly Silver was unlucky last time out at Chester, and as such has been punted into a very warm favourite. Born to Surprise, Magic City and Discression are all plenty short enough for horses with inconsistent profiles, and as such we could take a chance on the Cape Cross colt. In his best effort this season he ran Aljamaaheer to three lengths in a listed contest at Newmarket off a mark of 110. Now down to a mark of 97, he looks on a decent mark. That man Murtagh is in the saddle and back on a decent effort over course and distance three weeks ago, it is only a matter of time before he can capitalise on his falling mark.

HAAJES won the five furlongs sprint finale last year, and bouncing back over two solid back to back runs, he looks the one to beat. Second to Whozthecat at Thirsk, he won a Hamilton seller and goes unpenalised, despite the form already being franked, and he looks to have been his long term target.

2.00 Hipster
2.30 Upward Spiral (Nb)
3.05 Sole Power (Nap)
4.10 Beaten Up
4.45 Balty Boys
5.15 Haajes


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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The Problem with Camelot

“The problem with Camelot”


As a three year old colt, the nation doesn’t really latch onto horses that haven’t been around for such a relative short of time. Frankel has had the public support due to his longevity. The superstar has had four runs as a two year old, five runs as a three year old and four runs thus far in his fourth and seemingly final year. The public have gradually got to know, and hear more about this superstar. Camelot however has had merely five runs, two of which in Ireland, and there is still a great deal of unknown about the son of Montjeu.

He came to The Racing Post Trophy with a big reputation having been ear-marked as Coolmore’s ‘one’ for the year, and won impressively. Similar tales with the 2000 Guineas, a trip on pedigree would not suit, and then as expected, hacked up in a really poor renewal of The Derby.

He goes to The St Leger currently a 1/3-2/5 chance, but the Yorkshire and national public don’t have the same affection and fondness that Nijinsky had when winning the triple crown in 1970, he was seen as an absolute superstar, and as such, I can’t see people backing him and leaving their tickets un-cashed to be ‘a part of history’, unlike Frankel and Black Caviar followers at Royal Ascot for example. They had a real aura about them, and a fan base that has followed suit similarly.

The tale is much different to Frankel, as it is two completely different ends of the spectrum. Frankel is trained by Sir Henry Cecil, a trainer LOVED universally throughout the nation, one of the greatest trainers of his generation, a man who has battled and defeated (almost) cancer. He went from being a multiple champion trainer to having just 12 (twelve) winners in 2006, the man was on the brink of retirement. The added story to it is the naming, named after the late Bobby Frankel, who trained for Prince Khalid Abdullah in America; there is real warmth about the tale. Whereas Camelot is owned by a business focused breeding operation, which will be shipped off to stud as soon as the season is finished, he will have to bring home the bacon. Frankel was left in training on the basis that Sir Henry Cecil wanted to see him continue to run, as did owner Prince Khalid.

It has to be said as well, flat racing is currently in the shadow of its jumps counterpart, we are fortunate to enjoy the best of both codes, and although both are thriving, jump racing is seen as the stronger. National Hunt racing is lucky to have had such stars as superstar Gold Cup winners in Denman and Kauto Star, and current stars such as Sprinter Sacre, Big Bucks, Quevega, and Hurricane Fly et al. All of the before mentioned horses have had the much needed benefit of longevity, the wider public know who they are. Big Bucks and Quevega have won for four straight years at The Cheltenham Festival, which is our equivalent of The Breeders Cup. Cheltenham is still the real big punting event for die-hards such as myself, and there is also the Grand National, which is more a spectacle, and one for the casual wider public to have their once a year interest. All aspects are really catered for.

So, unfortunately, everything is against Camelot, in terms of the story, apart from his sire and father, Montjeu passing away earlier this year. Frankel is the real superstar in the eyes of the public, and even then, jump racing is still seen as the pinnacle. Kauto Star and Denman have cemented their status as legendary in the 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and most memorably the 2011 Gold Cups.

A hard act to follow.

Camelot runs in The Ladbrokes St Leger – Doncaster 3.45 Saturday

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter – @JJMSports

Handicap Delving at Ascot - Saturday

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I will have my attentions completely fixated on Lancashire and more specifically Haydock Park on Saturday afternoon (blink and you'll miss ORTENSIA), despite some good rugby, an ashamedly poor version of a game called cricket that I know and love being ripped off and downsized, as well as good golf, domestic football and racing at Leopardstown, the best value for us shrewd punters comes from Ascot. Value, being the operative word, The Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap with nearly £100,000 to the winner. That feature is over a mile and a half, but there are similarly hot contests over five, seven and eight furlongs respectively.

The fillies’ handicap is over seven furlongs, and although the prize money doesn’t compare to the illustrious amounts of the three latter races, it is in no way less competitive.


A seventeen runner field where Speedi Mouse holds favouritism on the back of two wins, three in four starts, and has built up a good relationship with valuable claimer Nicole Nordblad. Back to back wins at Newmarket, and a strong summer means she is 19lb higher since her form picked up in June. She will no doubt give a solid account, but place claims for me. The Hannon team generally under perform in Ascot handicaps, and have a poor record outside of two year old races. which would all but rule out Dare to Dream. A trainer who does thrive in this format is William Haggas who has Diala, who after flopping in the 1000 Guineas may suit dropping back to seven furlongs. However after personally backing her and being extremely under par last time out, in lieu with other runs this season, it may just be a case of her not training on. The stereotypically filly who wins this type of race towards the back end of the season is unexposed, lightly raced and from respected connections. Catherine Laboure is interesting, but would have to win from 2lb out of the handicap, something I am not a fan of. The Giving Tree was much better when coming back down to a mile last time out, and has a similarly unexposed profile. The stand out filly in the line-up looks to be CHIGUN for Sir Henry Cecil and Eddie Ahern. She bolted up in her maiden at the fourth attempt, winning by ten lengths and then followed that up by trying to make all in a hot Goodwood handicap over nine furlongs, tiring late on. Dropped 1lb, and back down to a mile should suit her ideally, and the stable are in cracking nick.


The ‘Fly London Southend Airport Handicap’ is one of these Ascot speciality seven furlong handicaps with a bumper field and an even bumper prize fund. You see these trip specialists turn out time and again, but rare do you see repeat winners; such is the handicapping system here in the UK. As such, although you could see the likes of Imperial Guest, Field of Dreams and Primaeval running well, you can’t realistically see them winning, Mick Channon has a relatively poor record around Ascot, which would put a line through Arnold Lane and Atlantic Sport. Memory Cloth needs it soft, and the likes of Mabait, Xilerator, King of Jazz and Don’t Call Me seem to have lost their way. Smarty Socks won the race last year, and has shown glimpses of form, he is a dark horse if the money comes for the infamous David O’ Meara yard. The shortlist would involve a few that seem relatively well in, and are often bridesmaids rather than the bride, so although they seem a bit of a monkey, they are well handicapped. The first of these is BANNOCK who ran a close second in a listed race at York before third in a good handicap at Chester last week. His record reads 23-3-6-3, but Michael J Murphy claiming seven has an unbelievable record for Mark Johnston, three wins and a second for four previous booked rides. Similarly GLOBAL VILLAGE for Brian Ellison. He won a course and distance handicap in May, and has finished fourth in two subsequent runs, never far away over the same trip. He is likely to place more than win however. The top of the shortlist is EXCELLENT GUEST for Shane Kelly and George Margarson, who excels in this sphere, as seen with Imperial Guest’s latest win. The five year old’s record over course and distance reads 312000, but he looks to have been set up for this, running his last two starts over a mile, he should be sharp and fit enough for this and a further autumn campaign.


The feature, the Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap has nineteen runners, and a wealth of prize money for the three year olds, and it has the old adage of a ‘spot the group horse in the handicap’. As mentioned before, William Haggas is the man to watch and he saddles Sun Central, who went wider than Dawn French’s waistline last time out at Ascot, but still won well. Considering how well he won, and how well he was backed, he must be assumingly well in. Before that run he was behind Gospel Choir, when they were on marks of 82 and 84. Now up 10lb and 12lb respectively, they are open to more progressive types and both look plenty well handicapped. Haggas also has Stencive, but he looks the second string. Mark Johnston has three in the form of Modernism, Fennell Bay and Scatter Dice, but none have the looks of an unexposed lurker. Jeremy Noseda’s yard are going well so it would be no surprise to see Harvard N’ Yale run well, after once being lauded as a future Kentucky Derby hopeful. The two of the most squinted looks are the Sir Robert Ogden pair of MARTIN CHUZZLEWHIT and CASTILO DEL DIABLO for Sir Michael Stoute and David Simcock respectively. The first, whom I tipped up and fancied at York, was seriously hampered a furlong out when in front, and ran a blinder. He is still unexposed, and Robert Winston is booked, who has a good record this season for Stoute (two wins and a second from five rides), he remains unexposed. As does Castilo Del Diablo, who has gradually improved in maiden company, winning arguably one of the strongest maidens of the season over a mile and a half at Newmarket. The colt was still green and hung towards the end on only his third ever run. Exceptionally well bred, and the form of the subsequent runners has worked out as 1141, he also remains open to the world and then some.

1-2-3's

3.10 Ascot – Chigun – The Giving Tree – Speedi Mouse
3.45 Ascot – Excellent Guest – Bannock – Global Village
4.15 Ascot – Martin Chuzzlewit – Castilo Del Diablo – Sun Central

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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Friday Racing at Haydock Park 7/8/12

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WILLBEME stayed on well on his first run for over a year when a game third in a competitive Thirsk handicap, and since then has hacked up at Doncaster and Haydock, both over six furlongs. The recent course and distance winner is thriving, and although up 15lb for his three efforts this year, he still looks very well handicapped. The form of all three runs has worked out well, he is still relatively unexposed.

PRUSSIAN was well fancied in a hot handicap at the weekend at Sandown, appreciating dropping back down to ten furlongs, and was unlucky to not catch Labarinto, rallying late on under Martin Lane. Franny Norton takes the ride on the filly, who is now 6lb ahead of the handicapper turning out here, and the partnership has thrived this season, a 17% strike rate, and a £50.29 profit to £1 stake on all their rides this season.

The same tandem also team up with MORDERNISM, who absolutely hacked up at Goodwood two weeks ago over a mile and a half, and the Monsun colt indicated he would stay further. Eased down under the same jockey, he still won by four lengths, and although 8lb higher, the manner of the victory, and the form of the stable suggests more is to come for connections.

NASRI is a horse I have fancied for a while since getting his act together and finishing fourth at York, and I tipped up and backed him ante post for The Stewards Cup, where he was unfortunately balloted out. He was down the field at Goodwood for the consolation race, before showing a much greater display when stepped up to seven furlongs at Newbury. He lost by a head that day to Emilio Largo, who was well backed on the day for Sir Henry Cecil. Up 2lb, his mark of 88 is still a fair one, and seven furlongs may turn out to be his trip.

3.35 Haydock – Willbeme
4.45 Haydock – Prussian
5.15 Haydock – Nasri
5.45 Haydock – Modernism

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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Saturday at Beverley - September 1st 2012

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Watching back the run that WILLOWING had last time out at Doncaster, I’m very surprised he dons the white cap and is the supposed second string for Godolphin in the opener, a seven furlong maiden. He ran a great third that day, just tiring in the latter stages, and the drop down to the extended seven should suit this filly down to the ground. Phillip Makin is on board, and although there are threats in stablemate Naalatt and Zero Game for Michael Bell and Jamie Spencer, Willowing gets the nod.

HI THERE runs on an unadjusted mark for a game third last time out at Newmarket, when badly hampered in running, and on a mark of 72, looks fair value for Richard Fahey and Freddie Tylicki in the seven and a half furlong handicap. Although hampered, the gelding still ran on well towards the finish, and creeping in at the bottom of the weights, he makes plenty of appeal in a fairly weak renewal.
I can not get over the price of SHEIKHZAYEDROAD in the 3.15 ten furlong handicap, and although up 2lb for finishing third last time out at Newmarket, he didn’t seem to handle the course, and hung badly towards the latter part of the race. He didn’t do much in front and with Jamie Spencer on board, he will have the perfect jockey to give him his patented last to first ride. At the prices, he looks severely overpriced, and with the Johnston horse being accordingly short, the favourite is worth taking on.

ALIVE AND KICKING has two big eggs next to his name, but both runs can be excused for the James Bethell four year old. Bumped on his penultimate start and then he finished tenth last time out over six furlong s at Doncaster. The gelding was in front however two furlongs out, and was eased down after tiring late on. Dropping back to five furlongs seems a logical step, and he is respected with Jamie Spencer booked to do the steering.

If you excuse FREE ZONE’s run last time out on bottomless ground in Ireland, he is a very consistent and versatile animal for Bryan Smart and Tom Eaves, and before that run, ran a solid third in group three company with Nunthorpe winner Spirit Quartz in behind him. He is a course and distance winner, and has his best form on good ground, for the life of me he looks overpriced in a field full of exposed veterans. The three year old is only having his seventh run of the season, and will have place claims at the very least.

The 4.50 is a terrible looking maiden, with some horses that are likely to never win a race, bar a well punted claimer around Dunstall Park. AVON BREEZE sticks out like a sore thumb as an unexposed filly that ran behind some good looking horses of Roger Varian and Sir Michael Stoute on debut at Doncaster and is well entitled to come on for that run and shed her maiden tag here.

I wouldn’t suggest the last as a serious betting proposition, but HARARE goes for the Gemma and Karen Tutty team, who do well in these amateur lady riders’ races. Harare is a course and distance winner, who stayed on well last time out at Redcar at a big price, and lowered another 1lb in the handicap, the now eleven year old can have a swansong for the all family affair.

2.05 Beverley – Willowing
2.40 Beverley – Hi There (Nap)
3.15 Beverley – Sheikhzayedroad
3.45 Beverley – Alive and Kicking
4.15 Beverley – Free Zone
4.50 Beverley – Avon Breeze
5.25 Beverley – Harare


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports