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After the success of Ortensia, the ante portfolio has a bit of a cushion, and there is only one thing to do, obviously reinvest the profits, albeit with the aim of doing so wisely. After last Friday’s success, there is no doubt in my mind, that the Aussie mare ORTENSIA is absolutely different gravy to the current crop of sprinters assembled in a division dominated by those from down under. William Buick commented in his At The Races blog that she takes a while to get going, and compared her to a ‘Bougatti’ the way the she goes through the gears. The fact she gradually gets going and gets better and better, the step up to six furlongs should rightfully suit. She would have won by further if not for a number of factors that only proceeded to hinder her. The ground had turned out softer than ideal and she should prove to be even better on a sounder, quicker surface. What wasn’t picked up either is that when David Allan took the hood off his mount Confessional, it was thrown at and subsequently spooked Ortensia. As such, it took her even longer to get going. The fact she came through this when so many things going against her, the pace, the spooking, the ground, yet she still came through shows the heart of her. She got a blinding ride from William Buick, who is one of the most tactically astute jocks going at the minute, and booked to ride her around Haydock, she should complete an impressive treble at Goodwood, York and Haydock, and cement wins in three counties in England and three continents for the globetrotting mare. If it goes really soft, Mayson and to a lesser extend Society Rock have to be considered, but it would have to be something of a bog for me to turn away from this absolute superstar.
The week after that, we are hopefully sitting on a nice profit and can watch The Ladbrokes St Leger safe in the knowledge that profit is already wrapped up thanks to the superstar mare. We go across The Pennines to Doncaster for the last classic of the year, and although Camelot is the deserved ante post favourite after his wins in The 2000 Guineas and English and Irish Derby’s respectively, we have to take him on. He is looking to be the first horse since Nijinsky in 1970 to win that elusive triple crown for Coolmore and Ballydoyle, and become one of only fourteen other horses to achieve the feat. He is currently best priced 4/9, but he looks very fragile running over this type of trip, and the form of his wins have worked out shockingly thus far. Camelot’s defeated rivals have since run 77 times since, with only 8 wins and a further twelve places. Talwar, Akeed Mofeed (Listed), Power (G1), Thought Worthy (G2), Trumpet Major (G3) are the only horses victorious since losing to the colt. To say the form has been let down, would be an understatement. There are three highly progressive three year old colts who I would seek to take him on with.
The first one is MICHELANGELO, who came to his debut with a very high reputation for the John Gosden stable. He ran a good third on debut, and the fact he was running in listed company in his first run spoke volumes. He followed that with a win over good benchmark Expense Claim, and then was even more impressive when winning the Tattersall’s Millions 3yo trophy at Newmarket, beating subsequent black type winner Cameron Highland in impressive fashion. Stepped up to a mile and a half in The Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, he was far from disgraced finishing third, never really travelling, but staying on towards the finish, eventually beaten by three lengths. He is still learning and developing, and on a flatter, more galloping track such as Doncaster, may improve him further. At his current price of 16/1, he is likely to go off much shorter, and considering this has been his target since the start of the season, there is no better trainer at preparing a horse for the St Leger than John Gosden. He does have Thought Worthy, Shantarm and Great Heavens at his disposable, but Michelangelo looks the one most open to improvement, and is almost certain to run, barring injury.
The other two fancies are more speculative, but both have looked very impressive in decent company. THOMAS CHIPPENDALE looked tremendous when winning at Royal Ascot over a mile and a half, beating subsequent winners Thought Worthy and Noble Mission, who went on to win at Goodwood and York respectively. He won coming away that day, and therefore disappointed when running at York, however excuses could be made. He wasn’t helped by the slow pace and never really settled under Paul Hanagan, who was very patient and gave the colt an easy race. The pace of a St Leger is usually extreme, watching back last year’s renewal; they set some incredible fractions, and made it a real test. He should benefit from that sort of gallop, and providing he settles better, he could run outrun his current odds, and fulfil the promise he demonstrated during his win at Royal Ascot.
Another protagonist is GUARANTEE who I tipped up and backed on Saturday at York, and whilst I expected him to win, I didn’t expect a performance quite as scintillating as he put in. Under a very confident ride from Phillip Makin, he cruised up around the outside, and kept on strongly, to win well, and with some very smart horses in behind. He has work to do against classier rivals with arguably stronger form, but is very unexposed for respected connections. William Haggas has a 67% strike rate running horses in classics, and if he says the colt is good enough, that is a big thumbs up, and he is only going to shorten further closer to the day.
Moving onto The Arc, there was news this weekend that the Japanese Triple Crown winner flies over next week in a bid to have a tilt at Longchamp glory. ORFEVRE comes with a lofty reputation, and with good reason, his record is quite outstanding. The four year old has won seven of his last nine starts, including bowing out for Europe with a Group 1 over a mile and three furlongs back in June. Japanese runners have a solid record in The Arc; seconds in recent years from El Condor Pasa and Buena Vista, and third from Deep Impact; they are itching closer to having a winner, and this boy could hold the key. He is due to have a prep in the Prix Vermaille, with Christophe Soumillion already booked. Confidence is high, and he looks to have the class, pedigree and form in the book to prove a lively contender for Japan.
Although trends wise the race favours three and four year old cotls, the manner of the five year old filly SNOW FAIRY’s comeback run to win the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville two weeks ago showed how much ability this mare has retained. She has been laid out for an autumn campaign by trainer Ed Dunlop, and although her best runs have come over a mile and a quarter, with wins in Sha Tin and Kyoto in Hong Kong last season, she is a dual Oaks winner, and should stay. The mare gets on exceptionally well with Ryan Moore, if he were on board, his big race pedigree is second to none, not to mention she has never lost with the former champion jockey aboard her. Her form in general has been exceptional, and since winning The Oaks in June 2010, it reads 1124114223311 – all in Group 1 company. Her only defeats have come behind Midday, So You Think, Cirrus Des Aigles, and Danedream, all multiple group one winning animals. She has never been defeated further than five lengths and finished third in the race last year under Frankie Dettori. Being a year old tougher, and more importantly, fresher, with an autumn campaign, she will likely run in The Irish Champion Stakes before heading to Longchamp, and she should be spot on and cherry ripe for the day.
Haydock Sprint Cup
Ortensia 5pt Win @ 3/1 (Across)
St Leger
Michelangelo 2pts Win @ 16/1 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, and Coral
Guarantee 0.5pt Win @ 25/1 Boylesports, Stan James, Bodog
Thomas Chippendale 0.5pt Win @ 33/1 Boylesports, BetVictor, Stan James
Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe
Orfevre 1pt Win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Snow Fairy 0.5pt Win @ 25/1 Sportingbet
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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