QIPCO 1000 & 2000 Guineas Preview

The eagerly awaited first classic of the season are this weekend at the home of flat racing, Newmarket, where the star two year olds have the chance to fulfil their potential and contest the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. The time for discussion is over, as the anticipation swells into action with the QIPCO 2000 Guineas on Saturday, and the QIPCO 1000 Guineas on Sunday.

The 2000 Guineas market has been dominated all year by the Henry Cecil trained FRANKEL, who ended his year, still unbeaten, and being crowned European two year old thoroughbred of the year. He will face a maximum of 14 rivals come Saturday, that is expected to be fewer, given how hard the ground will be, with very minimal rainfall over the last few weeks, meaning ground is expected to be good, good to firm in places. This however would post no problem whatsoever to the superstar Frankel, who demonstrated that he had developed on over the winter, winning his prep run well on similar ground in the Greenham Stakes. It is very hard to oppose such a superstar, and would be vindication for trainer Henry Cecil, who this weekend last year, had a Guineas win stolen from him in the steward’s room. I think he will win, and win easily, going on to have a fantastic three year old career. The value could also lie in the Godolphin horse CASAMENTO, formerly trained by Mick Halford. He was mightily impressive last year when winning the Racing Post Trophy under Frankie Dettori, and is expected to go on to run in the Derby. Frankie could ride him or his stablemate Saamid, who was disappointing behind Frankel in the Dewhurst. Should he choose Casamento, which I expect him to do, see the price shorten, from its current price of 16/1.

The QIPCO 1000 Guineas is a lot more open affair, with the current favourite, the Freddie Head trained MOONLIGHT CLOUD being the favourite at 9/2. A very open race, with lots of unanswered questions, and very few answers. The favourite Moonlight Cloud is at the top of the market, due to a very promising prep run when defeating her good rival Hellborine. The George Strawbridge owned filly is definitely worth a punt at her current price, and has the best form in the book behind Misty For Me. The recent run of Moonlight Cloud has proven she has wintered well, and is the horse with the best passage through to the race. Misty For Me was most impressive winning her two Group 1 races, one of which, when Memory blotted her copybook when was a well beaten favourite in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. However the vibes of the Aidan O’ Brien horse have been poor, and she has gradually slided on the machines, with her price now currently being 12/1 from 7/1 just a month ago, which could hint that she has not wintered well, may not like the fast ground, or is not ready for the day. Either way, it would be wise to avoid her in this instance. The other highly touted juvenile is MEMORY, winning of the Albany and Cherry Hinton stakes, en route to being crowned Champion two year old filly. Her only defeat came when finishing fourth at the Curragh in the Moyglare (G1) race, when she was never going well, and clearly wrong on the day. Word is that she has thrived over the winter, and did an impressive piece of work on the gallops at Newbury. She was champion 2 year old filly for a reason, and with the Hannon team starting the season so strong, she has to be persisted with.

2000 Guineas – Frankel 5pt Win 8/15 & Casamento 1pt EW 16/1

1000 Guineas – Moonlight Cloud 2pt Win 9/2 & Memory 1pt EW 6/1

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

The Yorkshireman Tipping for Tuesday 26th April

The flat season is now in full swing, as we edge closer and closer to the classics, and then Royal Ascot, as anticipation grows with each ongoing day. National Hunt fans, it’s not all bad though, you are not omitted from this platter of racing, with summer jumping now under way, with meetings in particular on Tuesday at Sedgefield and Fairyhouse.

It is at Sedgefield that we have our first selection for the in form BENNY BE GOOD, who is having a quick reappearance since winning at the same track two weeks earlier in the 2m 5f novice chase at 18:40. Back now handicapping, he should have the beating of a rather substandard field. The trip is a furlong shorter than his previous outing winning a competitive novice chase as 7/2 2f. However this should not pose any problems for Benny Be Good, who’s jumping really sets his races up for him, as he really attacks his fences. Jockey James Reveley will be suited perfectly with the horses hold up tactics, and will be happy to sit in behind stalking the leaders, before taking it up to hopefully win from the second last.

Another recent winner being turned out quickly is WESTERN GALE, who returned from a 170 day absence to win recently at Wetherby. He won over 3m 1f on good to firm ground, and is expected to be a lot sharper and fitter for the run. He stayed on well up the run in, and the extra 3 furlongs he will be running over in the 19:15 will not pose a problem. He has a 7lb penalty, but I think he could be well in, and give James Reveley a double on the card.

We turn out attention now to Yarmouth, where there is a very good card, which has attracted the attention of the crème de la crème of world jockeys with Frankie Dettori, Kieran Fallon, Jamie Spencer and Tom Queally all making the visit. Frankie in particular is coming here for one ride for retained owner Sheikh Mohamed. He rides ASRAAB, who is a very unexposed son of Oasis Dream and is definitely the most eyecatching entry of the day. He was unraced as a 2 year old, and started his three year old campaign by winning a hot Newmarket maiden, before narrowly losing by a neck in his only other run in a class three handicap at Sandown. He will have bags of improvement to come, and is on a very generous handicap mark to boot.

4.10 Yarmouth – Asraab (Nap)

18:40 Sedgefield - Benny Be Good

19:15 Sedgefield - Western Gale

Easter Weekend Tipping - April 23rd Bet365 Gold Cup

An absolute buffet of racing on display for this bank holiday weekend with eight – yes, eight, meetings on Saturday, with the highlight being the cards on display at Haydock and Sandown, including the Bet365 Whitbread Gold Cup, the Sandown Mile and the Bet365 Hurdle all being Grade 1/Group 1 races respectively. That is followed up by ten meetings on bank holiday Monday, the highlight there being the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.

We start off with the showpiece race, and the race that culminates a season. Traditionally known as the Whitbread Gold Cup, a race lined with history, and one aimed at by trainers from an early stage in the season. As such, there is a highly competitive field, with lots of quirks, and not so straightforward form to assess. In the 22 runner field, there are horses that prefer the track, the ground, the distance, the time of the year, who could all pose threats as supposed ‘dark horses’. However I can see nothing past the front two in the market, both of which I have already tipped up earlier in the season. The first one of the two is BABY RUN, who is traditionally known as a hunter chaser. He ran two solid races at the start of the season before going to the two main races, at Cheltenham and Aintree. He fell when looking for all money the winner at Cheltenham, before gaining redemption at Aintree. Sam Twiston-Davies will replace injured brother Willie, but this should further enhance the horses claims, and should run a strong race. The other selection is the other ante post joint favourite BALTHAZAR KING, who has been the definition of consistency this season. Great placed efforts behind eventual Grade 1 winners Master of the Hall and Chicago Grey, he has finally got the winning feeling as of late, winning two novice chases, the second of which was a very strong affair last week at Cheltenham. Richard Johnson is in the form of his life, and with his and the horse’s confidence flourishing, both Balthazar King and Baby Run could be fighting out the finish.

Later on at Sandown, the card reverts to the flat, in a symbolic handing over of the season, and we kick off with the Sandown Mile, where Group 1 winning DICK TURPIN should be too good for this field. He was the model of consistency last year, finishing placed in the 2000 Guineas, Irish Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes, before finally getting his head in front in a Group 1 in France, He was disappointing when finishing fifth in the Champion Stakes, but he clearly did not stay and his trip is a strong run mile, and is simply too good for this field.

The final selection runs in a competitive Grade 3 handicap chase at Haydock, where our one to watch partnership of the season has a very tough and progressive horse in the name of EYRE SQUARE. James Reveley riding for his dad will once again fight this tipster’s cause, and his form this season has been fantastic. He has run 5 times so far this season, winning three times, finishing second once, and falling when looking like he would definitely be fighting out the finish. He is on the upgrade and relatively unexposed against a field of tired handicappers and should hopefully round off the jumps season with a resounding success!

4.35 Haydock Eyre Square

3.45 Sandown Dick Turpin

3.10 Sandown Balthazar King / Baby Run

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Prospects May Blog

Life has a funny way of shaping itself. Lots of minor transgressions, incidents and general everyday life go by without relative incidents, but mould our very fabric. Does that sound too poignant for a blog of a boy who works in a bookies? I thought so too, but what the hey, we’re in form, and I like it. I seem to be in the very basic format, a ‘form’ person. I go through patches in life where everything I touch turns to gold, and everything is “lovely jubbly” as my hero and role model in life Derrick Trotter would say.

The downside of this is that it is usually over quicker than an English summer, and the remaining 10 ½ months of the year, I reside in Strugglesville, which is a nice little village just outside Schmucks-on-Trent. One presumes that this happens to each and every single reader, however due to a more refined and socially acceptable lifestyle, the swings, and the highs and lows are that of a much lesser magnitude.

“Form” is what accountants would call an ‘Intangible Asset’ - identifiable non-monetary assets that cannot be seen, touched or physically measured, which are created through time and/or effort and that are identifiable as a separate asset. So whereas Coca Cola have the brand name on their balance sheet for about $1 Billion, I calculate the impact of form.

I am aware I have strayed off on a massive tangent, but it is an issue that is fairly prominent to me and one that is such an underappreciated and taboo topic. You know one of those days when you wake up, the sun is shining, the birds are chirping and you know today is going to be a good day? You don’t have those types of days living in strugglesville! It is cold, wet, dreary, the basic undertone being miserable. Depending on how life goes in the next month, I’ll report back on future weather forecasting for there.

Focusing more on my actual blog, it has been a strange and action packed last month, especially at HQ. We have had the Cheltenham festival, which was a rollercoaster ride for an emotionally unstable fan that had some favourites out there. Denman was the most pleasing, even if he did finish second. National Hunt racing is the only sport where participants that do not win are lauded and praised more than the actual winner, and the feeling of camaraderie is something that could be taken on board from other sports and other sportsmen. That was followed up with the Aintree Festival, filled with agony and ecstasy. Sixteen year old Willie Twiston-Davies gained much deserved redemption from an agonising fall at Cheltenham, but there was also the widely disproportionate publicity surrounding the two fatalities in the Grand National. Sensationalist headlines covering up the unfortunate circumstances surrounding both demises, with less than ideal ground and an even less ideal pacing of the race. Oh well, why let facts get in the way of a good story, right?

Hopefully this time next month I shall still be steered clear away from my tent in strugglesville. We live in hope.

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Tuesday Tipping - April 19th

Fontwell racecourse is the destination on Tuesday for an excellent card with a great combination of novice chases and competitive handicaps. Both the top stables and top jockeys are present, including Richard Johnson, Jamie Moore and recent Grand National winner Jason Maguire.

Richard Johnson is the jockey on our first selection, which runs in the 5.20, which sees him ride GORES ISLAND in the bumper, who aims to build on a very good second on debut. He finished second to Knights Pass, the long time ante post favourite for the Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival, and is expected to be a real classy hurdler in time to come. The Noel Chance five year old is very well bred, and should come on for the run. The only negative is the lack of form from the stable, with only one winner in the last 7 weeks. However Dickie Johnson on the other hand is in imperious form, and hopefully he can have his form rub off onto the horse.

We switch codes for our remaining selections, and move our fortunes to the picturesque surroundings of Bath, which hosts an evening meeting on Tuesday that includes a 7 race card, with the feature being the 6:00 – R and R Ices Handicap. A horse that immediately strikes off the page is the Amanda Perrett trained HUFF AND PUFF, who has some tremendous form in the book in his relatively short racing career. His debut was a promising fifth in a tough Newmarket maiden that had 11 subsequent winners come out of it. He then broke his maiden tag, before debuting in a handicap, finishing again fifth behind St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos and ahead of future successful hurdlers Higgys Ragazzo and King’s Parade. He has proven to run well fresh and should be able to defy top weight here.

We turn out attention finally to Pontefract on Tuesday, and it is of interesting viewing to see that Ryan Moore travels there to take one ride for his boss Sir Michael Stoute. He rides the promising Dansili colt CHIEFDOM PRINCE. He was relatively disappointing when finishing second last time out in a Nottingham maiden, when travelling well to find little of the bridle. He has been dropped in trip from a mile to 6 furlongs, which should suit given how his races have panned out thus far. His chances have also been backed up with third in the maiden winning next time out, and given the fact it looks a relatively weak race on paper, he should be able to make it third time lucky,

Selections

Chiefdom Prince – 4.10 Pontefract

Gores Island – 5.20 Fontwell

Huff and Puff – 6.00 Bath

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Saturday Tips - 16th April 2011

After the hype and hoopla surrounding the Grand National, there is usually an anti-climatic lull in the National Hunt season before a final crescendo at the Punchestown festival, which will bring the season to a close. However before then we have the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr Saturday, with a bumper field that includes last years winner Merigo, as well as strong chances from the Tim Vaughan, Gordon Elliot and David Pipe yards. There is also extremely competitive flat racing from both Doncaster and Newbury, and we are fortunate to be at that time of the year, where both codes are working in harmony!

We start off our selections at Newbury, and in the Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes, and the Sir Michael Stoute trained VERDANT. He was billed as a possible Derby horse last year after winning a good maiden and then a tough handicap race, but instead went down the handicapping route. He ran on Derby day finishing third behind the tough Dandino, before ending the season with good wins at Sandown and Goodwood. The Khalid Abdullah owned 4 year old will have the best jockey in the business on board in Ryan Moore and is clearly on the upgrade. There could be a threat in the Clive Cox/Adam Kirby partnership that has Poet, the top rated horse in the race also involved, and could fill out the 1-2.

We stay at Newbury for the next race for Fred Darling stakes, which is now called the Dubai Duty Free Stakes, a listed contest for fillies. There is a line up of 14 contending this group 3 race, with lots of well respected horses, with the top stables all represented. Cape Dollar, winner of the Rockfel Stakes last year is respected and will likely go off the warm favourite for Sir Michael Stoute. However a chance should be taken on RIMTH, the horse who set tongues wagging with an impressive facile maiden win last year, before being ultra consistent in big races last year. She followed her maiden win with places in the Lowther Stakes, Dick Poole stakes and Chevely Park stakes, twice finishing behind Champion 2 year old filly Hooray. There is an eyecatching booking with Cristophe Soumillion on board, who is returning from a very successful stint in Meydan for Mike De Kock.

The focal point of Ayr’s season is the Scottish Grand National, a gruelling 4 mile race, won last year by Merigo, who lines up to defend his crown. There are 30 runners, and the ground is likely to be good or good to firm, which should suit perfectly recent Cheltenham National Hunt Chase winner CHICAGO GREY for the fantastic trainer Gordon Elliot. His victory at Cheltenham shows he stays the trip perfectly, and there will be no issues over the ground. He has a very good handicap mark, thanks to Neptune Collognes running taking top weight. The trainer is in exceptional form, having winners at the highest level at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. The major threats come from Merigo, who clearly loves the course and trip, and Beshabar, second to Chicago Grey last time out, but in receipt of 5lb on their reappearance.

Selections:

2.05 Newbury – Verdant

2.40 Newbury – Rimth

3.25 Ayr – Chicago Grey NAP

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Aintree Day 3 - 9th April 2011 Selections

1.45 Sam Winner/Cue Card

2.15 Finians Rainbow

2.50 Binocular (NAP)

3.25 Bensalem EW (Nb)

4.15 Big Fella Thanks EW/State of Play EW

5.00 Via Galeli EW/Plan A EW

5.35 Montbazon

Aintree Day 2 - 8th April 2011 Selections

2.00 Sire De Grugy/A Media Luz

2.30 Wayward Prince / Quito De La Roque

3.05 Tranquil Sea / Somersby

3.40 Mon Parran / Dev

4.15 Sparky May / Court in Motion

4.50 Kilcrea Kim / Swingkeel

Aintree Day 1 - 7th April Selections

2.00 - Big Bucks (NAP)

2.30 - Grandouet (NB)

3.05 - Denman

3.40 - Baby Run

4.15 - Leo's Lucky Star

4.50 - Medermit/Wishfull Thinking RFC

5.25 - Sire Collognes/Get Me Out Of Here/Bothy all EW