Monday 27 February 2012

Midweek National Hunt Tipping at Southwell - Wednesday 29th February

Racing on Wednesday at Southwell, Folkestone and Bangor over National Hunt rules and a twilight card at Kempton Park, where the class is quite a far cry from the sort of racing that is giving me sleepless, excitement filled days in the run up to ‘The Greatest Show on Turf’, however a winner’s a winner, as Derek Thompson would say, and the show must go on.

In the racing news this week, Lucy Alexander became the winning-most female national hunt jockey in a season, winning on her beloved Red Tanber on Musselburgh, the duo teaming up for their fourth win of the season and her own twenty fourth. She seems to particularly thrive when riding chasers and rides for her boss Ferdy Murphy on SEIGNEUR DES BOIS (Southwell 2.00). Gradually coming along with all three runs this year, the gelding has crept into the bottom of the handicap. His sole win came over the same course, and a chance can be taken off a 7lb lower mark than his rating at the start of the season.

The Tom Tate yard is in good order and jockey James Reveley rode Cheltenham bound Eagle Rock for the yard last week. They team up again with KUDO COUNTRY in the 3.05 at Southwell – a novice chase. He looks to have good claims. He beat Bold Sir Brian, who has won his three subsequent chases, in his first start of the season in a novice chase. He fell next time out when clear and lost by a short head to the Nicky Henderson trained Eradicate. That form makes him the best in this field on public evidence to date.

The same jockey rides BARDOLET in the three mile handicap chase (Southwell 4.05) and has solid claims based on his distance victory last time out at Catterick. He has shown gradual improvement, running closer to his truer mark with every run. A stamina test seems to really suit and James Reveley rides the track particularly well.

2.00 Southwell – Seigneur Des Bois
3.05 Southwell – Kudo Country (Nap)
4.05 Southwell – Bardolet

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports

Wednesday 22 February 2012

Racing Saturday at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle: February 25th 2012

Racing on Saturday will provide a real test, with cards at Newcastle and Chepstow, where the severity of their trademark stiff finishes will be severely increased because of the anticipated heavy going. There is also racing from Kempton Park, with The Adonis Hurdle and the Racing Plus Chase being the highlights.

Kempton have had to tweak Saturday’s card due to some rearranged races. They have the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle as well as the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle. My focus will be the Racing Plus Chase, won last year by Quinz for the Phillip Hobbs yard, and they have a strong chance once more with ante post favourite Planet of Sound.

Three miles on a flat track usually means Nacarat is there or thereabouts, and although he should run into a place, it is hard to see him winning. The Tizzard stable had five wins inside an hour last Saturday and their runners Cannington Brook and Mount Oscar have to be respected. Deep Purple looks a classy sort off top weight, but I feel he stays all day and would want further ultimately. By process of elimination the answer could lie with FRUITY O’ ROONEY for the in-form Gary Moore yard.

He won a Class 3 handicap chase over course and distance on 27th December, meeting trouble in jumping throughout but still beating subsequent winner Midnight Appeal by four lengths. He followed up that win with a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind potential Grand National horses Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom. That was a fair effort and he could be a terrific each way price come the day.

The Betfred Eider Chase is a gruelling four miles and promises to test the stamina of the most hardened stayer. Horses generally need to have won over 3 ½ miles previous, and recent four miles Kelso winner EYRE SQUARE ticks all the boxes. His win in the Borders National was mightily impressive and, on softish ground, highlighted his versatility. He was given too much to do when dropping down to 3 miles in another handicap chase, when up 5lb, and jockey James Reveley can make amends here. The Ferdy Murphy trained Negus De Beaumont and Peter Niven trained Posh Bird are dangers.

AP McCoy opts to ride at Chepstow rather than Newcastle and Kempton and he has two strong chances. The first is TEAFORTHREE who has shown glimpses of class, resulting in an official rating of 146. His novice chase win on heavy ground over course and distance has led to him being aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and the drop down in grade from the Feltham Chase at Kempton should provide him with a nice prep run in the build up to that.

McCoy’s other possibility is CHESTNUT BEN, who looks to put aside a disappointing run when unseating last time out. Prior to that he had won a good two mile handicap chase at Hereford by six lengths, on soft ground, in eye-catching fashion. Providing he has a clean round, he should go very close on a workable mark.

3.05 Kempton – Fruity O’ Rooney (Ew)
3.25 Newcastle – Eyre Square (Ew)
2.40 Chepstow – Teaforthree (Nap)
4.55 Chepstow – Chestnut Ben

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports

Tuesday 21 February 2012

Wednesday Tipping at Lingfield and Doncaster - February 22nd 2012

It was a nearly day for me on Saturday with Swincombe Flame, Medermit and Bobs Worth all failing to win but running well. I fully expect them all to perform with credit come the Cheltenham Festival where the likelihood is they’ll run in the Coral Cup, Ryanair Chase and RSA Chase’s respectively.

Cheltenham is still three weeks away, though so, in the meantime, we’ll attempt to find some winners this Wednesday (22nd Feb), with racing at Ludlow, Doncaster and Lingfield.

Starting at Lingfield, RIO ROYALE is worth taking a chance on in the 3.55, and should be a good price to boot. The Amanda Perrett gelding has put in two runs this year that were better than the bare forms reads. A three lengths 6th placing and a seven length 9th may look poor, but reasons can be found. His first run was when returning from a break and the ‘bounce’ factor possibly accounted for the second run. Down 2lb in the handicap, against very exposed horses, a very good 7lb claimer in Luke Rowe on board (he has a record of 3-13 at Lingfield) Rio Royale may make amends here.

The Andrew Balding yard have a good record when dropping maidens into handicaps, and the filly SEA ANEMONE can build on this further in the 5.00. She has run well in two claimers, firstly at Lingfield, over course and distance, losing by a length, and a fifth at Kempton, when she tired when tried over a mile. The drop back down to seven furlongs should suit and she may be thrown in off her current mark of 55.

The way BRAMSHILL LASS won her maiden over course and distance last month, gives her a terrific chance in the 2.50, a class five handicap over 10 furlongs. The filly made a pleasing reappearance in January running third in a maiden over a mile, before beating two very good horses in Cotton Trader and subsequent winner Three Bards in that maiden. She stayed on well, collaring the odds on favourite late on under a powerful Jim Crowley ride. She could do even better now she’s been sent handicapping and has to be respected here against more exposed rivals.

EAGLE ROCK has been exceptionally unlucky to run into three very good sorts in Countrywide Flame, Kaolak and Royal Bonsai in three novice hurdles, finishing a good second on all three starts. The runs behind Royal Bonsai and Countrywide Flame in particular looked promising. No one rides Doncaster better than James Reveley and although the Henderson and King yard are represented with good sorts, he should go close.

1.55 Doncaster – Eagle Rock
2.50 Lingfield – Bramshill Lass
3.55 Lingfield – Rio Royale
5.00 Lingfield – Sea Anemone

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports

Thursday 16 February 2012

Betfair Hurdle Day at Newbury - Friday and Ascot Chase Day - Saturday

SPRINTER SACRE is a horse I have harped on about for months now and I got on early in the Arkle ante-post market. I fully expect him to rout his opponents in the Game Spirit Chase on this, his last stop before Cheltenham. The race has been good to trainer Nicky Henderson and his winner from last year, French Opera, is also entered although the ground will dictate whether he’ll run or not. Sprinter Sacre is the top rated horse in the line up following his demolition of Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Sprinter Sacre is top class and it’d be no surprise were he a multiple winner of championship races in years to come so, although he will be a short price, follow him on Friday and lump on in the Arkle.

The rescheduled Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.

The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.

Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.

Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later and got out-battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.

Another horse using this weekend for a prep race is BOBS WORTH for the in-form Nicky Henderson stable, a yard coming back from an impressive treble at Kelso on Wednesday. Bobs Worth will go for the RSA Chase en route from Ascot and has been impressive since switching to chasing. He outstayed Cue Card at Newbury, before finding only Grands Crus too good in the Feltham Chase at Kempton. He is progressing, and sets the obvious standard in a tricky race with plenty quality about it.

SWINCOMBE FLAME is a progressive handicapper who we tipped up here in the Lanzarote Hurdle and we’ll remain loyal here in a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot. Up only 5lb, she should be good value for it.

The highlight at Ascot is the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase, over the extended two and a half miles. A specialist trip, may will look to use this as using this as a pointer towards the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, run over a similar distance. Last year’s winner Riverside Theatre turns out, as does the much hyped Kauto Stone, who carries a large reputation. However the value could lie with MEDERMIT, who comes here on the back of a terrific run in the Cheltenham Handicap Gold Cup in December. The Alan King trained horse won the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase, before finishing third in the Amlin Chase behind Master Minded and Victor Chandler Chase winner Somersby, The form of both looks good, and he should be a very tasty price. The trip looks ideal.

Newbury (Friday) 12.10 – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
Newbury (Friday) 13.15 – Third Intention (Ew) & Empire Levant (Ew)
Ascot Saturday 1.50 – Bobs Worth
Ascot Saturday 3.00 – Medermit
Ascot Saturday 3.35 – Swincombe Flame

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @ JJMSports

Tuesday 14 February 2012

Morebattle Hurdle Day at Kelso - Wednesday February 15th

The north is carrying the torch of national hunt racing, with Musselburgh being the only card on Saturday with their John Smiths Cheltenham trials day. Stormy Weather took the big handicap hurdle and Tara Royal won the Scottish Champion Chase for the McCain yard. Back to Scotland again for Kelso’s strongest card of the year where the Class 2 Moorebattle Hurdle, won last year by Peddlers Cross, is the highlight.

The Class 2 race is often used as a prep for Cheltenham and leading novice SIMONSIG lines up here for the Nicky Henderson yard. The six year old won a bumper and novice hurdle, both in impressive fashion, before running into Fingal Bay in a class two novices hurdle. Fingal Bay subsequently won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, further improving the reputation of the Henderson horse. The 2 miles 2 furlongs trip should suit here. Marsh Warbler, a decent yardstick who will provide a good benchmark, looks most likely to finish second for fans of the forecast.

The Keith Reveley yard are still in good heart and, with son James booked on board, the consistent KINGS GREY should go close in the valuable novices chase. He finished third last time out in a £25k handicap chase at Doncaster, looking all over the winner two out before just getting out-battled late on. Tara Royal, fifth that day, further franked the form when winning the Scottish Champion Chase on Saturday.

Bellvano for AP McCoy, Nicky Henderson and JP McManus will be the likely favourite and came up cruising in a Newbury novice chase behind Cedre Bleu but found little off the bridle, eventually losing by 2 ½ lengths. Given Kelso’s stiff finish, the favourite could be found wanting here again and the tactically astute James Reveley may pinch this from the front.

PREMIER SAGAS runs for trainer Nicky Richards in an amateur riders handicap chase and, with the trainer’s daughter on board, the consistent eight year old can go close. After returning from a 209 day absence he ran well over course and distance, finishing fourth, before a good second behind the Jennie Candlish trained Fiendish Flame. He has been lowered 2lb in the handicap and the extra 3 furlongs should suit.

ROS CASTLE put his novice hurdle form behind him when winning a handicap hurdle last time out at Ayr under a good ride from Wilson Renwick. In-form jockey Richie McGrath has the ride here and the step up in trip should suit the unexposed six year old, who has only been raised four pounds by the handicapper. The 18 furlongs trip should bring more improvement out of him and although this looks tougher, with Sophonie and Prince Blackthorn present, he should go close.

2.10 Kelso – Kings Grey
2.40 Kelso – Ros Castle
3.10 Kelso – Premier Sagas (Nap)
3.40 Kelso – Simonsig


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports

Wednesday 8 February 2012

Weekend Tipping - Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury and Hennessy Gold Cup Day at Leopardstown

Newbury on Saturday is being billed as ‘Super Saturday’ and it looks like it might live up to its name with the Denman Chase and the Game Spirit Chase featuring. On top of this last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkander goes for the Betfair Hurdle, where he is a hot favourite. Ireland goes toe-to-toe on the class front with a whopping four Grade Ones at Leopardstown on Sunday.

SPRINTER SACRE is a horse I have harped on about for months now and I got on early in the Arkle ante-post market. I fully expect him to rout his opponents in the Game Spirit Chase on this, his last stop before Cheltenham. The race has been good to trainer Nicky Henderson and his winner from last year, French Opera, is also entered although the ground will dictate whether he’ll run or not. Sprinter Sacre is the top rated horse in the line up following his demolition of Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Cue Card will make the running and will put up a good fight but Sprinter Sacre is an top class and it’d be no surprise were he a multiple winner of championship races in years to come.

They say always forgive a horse one bad run and I’m happy to apply this tenet to EDUCATED EVANS (2.20 Warwick). He tipped up last time out when seeking the hatrick but had run in the most bizarre fashion. He would barely start and had to be really got after by Sam Twiston-Davies to get going. He then badly blundered at both the first two fences before being pulled up. If that was a hiccup and he runs to the form of the previous two runs I think he will give a good account of himself here.

The Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.

The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.

Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.

Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later, and got out battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb, but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.

2.20 Warwick – Educated Evans
3.10 Newbury – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
3.45 Newbury – Empire Levant (Ew) & Third Intention (Ew)

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner - @JJMSports

Monday 6 February 2012

Midweek Talking Turf - Wednesday February 8th at Kempton and Lingfield

A weekend of disappointment, with all National Hunt cards being abandoned. I turned my attentions to the range of other sporting options including Six Nations Rugby, Super League, Premier League football, World Cup of darts, German Masters snooker and the Superbowl, so it wasn’t all bad.

With the weather unrelenting, we’ll focus most of our attention on Kempton where they have an eight race card on Wednesday. There are meetings at Carlisle, Lingfield and Ludlow, although it doesn’t look too good for the jumps cards, with Market Rasen and Sedgefield both already being abandoned on Tuesday.

LADY CAPRICE is a horse who has been on the upgrade since joining Jane Chapple-Hyam, winning back to back handicaps at Wolverhampton and Lingfield, and she can complete the hatrick in the 3.25 at Kempton. Although up 13lb for her two wins, she is 3 out of 9 running over 5 furlongs and looks to be on the upgrade.

SATWA LAIRD is a horse who has been unfortunate in terms of living up to his potential in the last year or so, but showed sparks of life in his last two starts for David Simcock. He himself is in a rich vein of form, with ten runners since the turn of the year, four have been winners, whilst a further three places. Satwa Laird is the best well off at the weights, and with retained jockey Jamie Spencer on board, he should win with a shade of comfort.

Discoverer is an interesting horse for the John Gosden in the 4.30, the best race on the card, a class four handicap for three year olds. He has ran twice, showing promise on his maiden run, finishing behind the promising Bronze Angel, who franked the form next time out. The second and fifth both won next time out, so there was excitement when it came to his next run, winning a six runner maiden at the prohibitive odds of 1/7. He did the bare minimum, this protecting his handicap mark, and gets a very nice mark of 78 to play with. It is also a booster that each of the trainers last five runners have been placed at the very worst, with two winners, and has a 24% strike rate at Kempton Park.

An eye-catching booking in the 7.35 is Jamie Spencer riding CATCHY TUNE for the David Brown yard, who looks thrown into a Class 6 handicap after three runs in decent maidens over the summer. The chestnut colt could be anything, so a market check would be advisable. If the money comes that could further enhance his claims.

3.25 Kempton – Lady Caprice (Nab)
3.55 Kempton – Satwa Laird (Nb)
4.35 Kempton – Discoverer
5.00 Kempton – Catchy Tune

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @JJMSports

Thursday 2 February 2012

Cheltenham Ante Post Register & Grand National Shortlist

From www.theracingforum.co.uk

Horses currently backed for Cheltenham:

Supreme Novices - Darlan 14s/12s & Steps to Freedom 14s/12s/10s
Arkle Trophy - Al Ferof 10s / Sprinter Sacre 10s/8s Peddlers Cross 6s
Champion Hurdle - Grandouet 25s/20s/16s/8s/7s Rock on Ruby 12s Spirit Son 8s
Mares Hurdle - Quevega 6/4

Neptune - Fingal Bay 5/1
RSA Chase - Bobs Worth 10s/8s Grands Crus 8s/6s/5s/4s
Champion Chase - Big Zeb 7s/6s/5s Finians Rainbow 9s/8s/7s/6s
Jewson Chase - Sir Des Champs 14s/12s/10s Solix 12s/10s
Ryanair - Medermit 16s/14s, Noble Prince 7s/8s, Kalahari King 25s/20s, Poquelin 25s.
World Hurdle - Big Bucks (in practically every bet) 6/4 to 4/7

Triumph Hurdle - Grumeti 12s/10s Minsk 16s/14s/12s/10s
Albert Bartlett - Boston Bob 12s/10s/8s Sea of Thunder 16s
Gold Cup - Quito De La Roque 33s/25s/20s/16s Grands Crus 9s Denman 25s
Foxhunters - Baby Run 7s

Best three backed:

Grands Crus RSA
Sprinter Sacre Arkle
Grandouet Champion Hurdle

Added:

Betting without Big Bucks - Oscar Whiskey 11/8
National Hunt Chase - Teaforthree 14s
Neptune - Boston Bob 5/1, Sous Les Cioux 12/1
Coral Cup - Get me Out of Here 10/1
JLT Chase - Quantitativeeasing 10s/8s
Albert Bartlett - Mount Belbuben 12s
Champion Hurdle - Binocular 6s
Foxhunters - Chapoturgeion 6s


Grand National Shortlist



Backstage
Cappa Bleu
Chicago Grey
Junior
Prince de Beauchene
Rare Bob




The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner @JJMSports

Weekend Racing February 4th - Ffos Los, Sandown and Wetherby

A disappointing week for racing with several fixtures succumbing to the weather, but solace can be found in the fact that the whole-scale havoc of last winter has been avoided and we have got off relatively lightly this season overall.

Wetherby has a mixed bag of a card on Saturday. The main attraction is the Grade 2 Novice Chase, which has attracted a very impressive field. There are currently horses entered from the Nicholls, Henderson, Venetia and Ian Williams stables but the two stand out entries are those from the Scottish based Lucinda Russell yard. She has entered Blenheim Brook and BOLD SIR BRIAN, and the latter looks the more promising. Stable jockey Peter Buchanan is booked for Bold Sir Brian and he appears to have the edge over his stable-mate . His win at Hexham was on heavy ground, and a winning margin of 17 lengths highlights his love of the mud, conditions the gelding should get on Saturday in the north.

Ffos Las has its Welsh Champion Hurdle card, and Oscar Whisky looks a strong candidate to successfully retain the title he won last year. Unfortunately he’s likely to be a skinny price and cannot be selected as a consequence. The other attraction is the West Wales National, with some hardened staying chasers turning out, including REY NACARADO for the Charlie Longsdon yard. He travelled fantastically to win a 3 miles 2 furlongs handicap on soft last time out, when successfully tipped up here by The Yorkshireman, and with improvement still to come, he can repeat the feat in Wales. Upped in trip and forecast heavy ground should suit this consistent type, who looks sure to give his usual resilient account of himself.

FIX THE RIB could go off a decent price in the two mile handicap chase. He is a horse gradually coming back to the form that he showed before a two year absence. He finished third to Master Minded in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in 2010, off a mark of 156. Now down to 134, he could be very well handicapped. A line can be put through both his comeback run and his Tingle Creek effort. He looked a little better when finishing a game 7th at Ascot and further improvement came over two and a half miles at Kempton, against what seemed like a good field. The drop back down to two miles should bring the best out of him, and the drying ground is likely to bring even more improvement, although soft wouldn’t completely kill his chances either.

The highlight of the card at Sandown is the Betfred Heroes handicap hurdle and I think SWINCOMBE FLAME is the best bet of the weekend. The Nick Williams star mare has been raised 6lb by the handicapper for her win in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. She smashed the last hurdle, and needed reminding to get up to the line, but stayed on well and got up, albeit at the expense of a whip ban for jockey Will Kennedy. This trip is over an extra furlong, and should bring further improvement against exposed sorts. She is still only having her fifth run of the season and looks very progressive. The only serious danger looks to be the well handicapped Thehillofuisneach.

The last race to be shown on Channel 4 is an interesting renewal and Nicky Henderson has two entered, and both have solid chances. I’d quite happily row in with his MASTER OF THE HALL or BURTON PORT, whichever Henderson selects of the two. Burton Port has always been one of my favourite horses, after I backed him ante post at big prices in the RSA chase at Cheltenham 2010 where he finished a solid second to Weapons Amnesty. His second in last years Hennessy, sandwiched between Diamond Harry and Denman, is a strong form line and, if recovered from injury, he could be a massive threat to them all. Master of the Hall looked good when defeating Nacarat and subsequent winner Tamarinbleu at Aintree. He refused to race last time but there should be more to come from an eight year old with some very strong novice form.

2.00 Sandown – Fix the Rib
3.05 Sandown – Swincombe Flame (Nap)
3.40 Sandown – Master of the Hall/Burton Port
2.15 Wetherby – Bold Sir Brian
3.20 Ffos Las – Rey Nacarado

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @JJMSports