Thursday 12 March 2015

Cheltenham 2015 - Friday Day Four

Top Notch (1.30) has been Pricewise'd in the opening Triumph Hurdle however still boasts plenty of value to lower the colours of stable-mates Peace and Co and Hargam under Daryl Jacob. The selection is unbeaten after five starts in Britain and France and has impressed with the fluency of his hurdling in successes at Musselburgh, Ascot and Haydock respectively. He can continue his unblemished record under rules to give trainer Nicky Henderson a second success of the week.

Cheltenian was an ante-post selection for the County Hurdle at 20/1, having been backed into favouritism last year before disappointing and being pulled-up. He remains with the potential to out-run his mark however with rain forecast a chance is taken on Max Dynamite (2.05) for the all-conquering team of Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. The 5-y-o was group class on the flat and made a winning debut over hurdles beating Sandra Hughes' subsequent Listed Hurdle winner Phil's Magic in impressive fashion. He chased home the smart Kitten Rock at Limerick over Christmas before finishing down the field in a trappy race last time out at Naas but looks the type to bounce back, taken to relish the 'festival pace' normally associated with such a competitive handicap.

Twenty go to post for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle including the 'big three' that have long been at the head of the ante-post market all winter and Black Hercules, No More Heroes and Value at Risk all likely to feature at the head of the market. There looks to be little value in the trio however and it could be worth backing a few at bigger prices, with the Nicky Henderson pair of Carraci Apache (2.40) and Out Sam (2.40) both appealing at the prices. Both have impressed in recent outings, with the latter in particular a fascinating runner under regular partner Barry Geraghty. The selection won one of the hottest novices' hurdles of the season at Newbury's Hennessy meeting and followed-up under a penalty at Ascot. They should be competitive and can hopefully reward each-way support.

Silviniaco Conti boasts a terrible record at Cheltenham and with rain coming Oliver Sherwood's Many Clouds (3.20) can celebrate a return to the big time landing the Cheltenham Gold Cup for owner Trevor Hemmings. The selection has been nothing but progressive in his second season over the larger obstacles, winning a Graduation Chase at Carlisle en-route to winning the season's most prestigious handicap chase, The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. He proved able to handle the undulations of Prestbury Park when winning the Denman Chase at the track in January and he can cap off an excellent 12-months for jockey Leighton Aspell and win jump racing's blue riband.

No opinion on the Foxhunters, however you would assume On the Fringe to be in the frame..

Willie and Danny Mullins have landed a touch in the Martin Pipe twice in the last four years (with subsequent G1 chasers Sir Des Champs and Don Poli) and the money for Roi Des Francs has been significant, with the 6-y-o being backed from double-figure prices into favouritism. Paul Nicholls' Le Mercurey has been a talking horse and is respected for a trainer that has an excellent record in the race however a chance is taken on Jennie Candish's Party Rock (4.40) to justify each-way support and reverse the form with Jonjo O'Neill's Forthefunofit in the process. The selection boasts course and distance form and ran a blinder on his seasonal reappearance chasing home JP, AP and Jonjo's 'handicap good thing' last time out at Huntingdon. He comes out on 4lb better terms and can out-run his price of 40/1, ahead of Nicky Henderson's Full Shift, not seen since disappointing in the race last year, and the David Pipe pair of Vieux Lion Rouge and Balgarry.

All the focus will be on AP McCoy and Ned Buntline in the finale, the AP McCoy Grand Annual, however Paul Carberry and Eastlake (5.15) can provide something of an upset in those famous green and gold hoops. Jonjo O'Neill's gelding was a huge eye-catcher travelling powerfully last time out at Ascot before tiring in the closing stages, but should remain competitive from an unrevised mark down to the minimum trip.

Selections
1.30 Top Notch 8/1 (Nb) with BOG
2.05 Max Dynamite 16/1 with BOG
2.40 Carraci Apache & Out Sam both 16/1 with BOG
3.20 Many Clouds (Nap) 8/1 with BOG
4.40 Party Rock 40/1 with BOG
5.15 Eastlake 14/1 with BOG

Wednesday 11 March 2015

Cheltenham 2015 - Thursday Day Three

Thursday looks set to be an excellent day for Irish trainer Noel Meade, who can plunder two Grade 1's this afternoon with Apache Stronghold (1.30) and Monksland (3.20) both fancied under regular pilot Paul Carberry. The former has been nothing but progressive over fences, building on the promise shown last term as a novice hurdler. The selection won a G2 contest at Navan before returning from a break to run well at both the Fairyhouse and Punchestown festivals and chasing home Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner Vautour at the latter. Fences were always going to be the making of him however and he has sparkled since reverting to the larger obstacles, yet to finish out of the frame on all four starts. He was out-stayed by subsequent RSA Chase winner Don Poli at Leopardstown over Christmas but bounced back to reverse the form with Willie Mullins' Valseur Lido at the same track last month. Two and a half miles seems to be his trip and he looks set to better the Gigginstown rival once more, along with his stablemate Vautour and best of the English Ptit Zig.

Monksland is a horse with a similar profile, having been impressive in his novice hurdle days, chasing home Simonsig in the Neptune Novices' Hurdle at the Festival in 2012. The precocious 8-y-o ended his second season hurdling prematurely after suffering an injury later that year however returned from an absence of nearly two years to finish an excellent third in Ireland over Christmas. He bettered that performance when narrowly beaten on ground softer than ideal last time out at Gowran Park however the winner has scored subsequently and Monksland remains one of a handful of unexposed individuals and fancied to better his odds of around the 14/1 mark. The form of last year's race has worked out terribly and the likes of At Fishers Cross, Zarkandar and Reve de Sivola would have to be opposed however David Pipe's Un Temps Pour Tout and Nicky Henderson's Whisper remain unexposed and are fascinating runners entering relatively unchartered territory.

In the handicaps, Edeymi is an understandable favourite for the Pertemps after an eye-catching run last time out at Musselburgh however Unique de Cotte (2.05) looks a David Pipe quintessential handicap plot and can score under Tom Scudamore. The selection landed a gamble at the track earlier in the season - getting his head in front despite running as green as grass throughout. He ran poorly on his next start on ground softer than ideal at Newbury, but bounced back to land a similar touch from Evan Wililams' promising Padge last month at Ascot. A 20lb rise at the weights for both successes may look harsh from the handicapper however he may not have got to grips with him yet and is still potentially well-treated.

Attaglance (4.00) and Clondaw Knight (4.40) can take the two handicap chases on the card for the northern based yards of Malcolm Jefferson and the Lucinda Russell yards respectively. The former have bounced back to form this spring in style, with five winners from thirteen runners since the turn of March. The selection has been first and second on his two prior runs at the festival and was unlucky loser last year when chasing home Present View. He can gain scant consolation from a 4lb higher mark.

Clondaw Knight has been progressive in Handicap Chases in the north and was just unlucky to bump into once last time out at Ascot. The selection chased home Caroles Destrier, landing a gamble for Neil Mulolland and Barry Geraghty with winner going up a further 10lb in the handicap thereafter. The selection traded odds-on in-running before being done by a turn of foot late on however can make amends and is excellent each-way value with plenty of bookmakers betting the race to five places.

The Don looks a cut above the field in the Ryanair if, and it's a big if, he can translate his form going right-handed in small fields however the race looks a potential minefield and I'll be watching, rather than betting, on this rare occasion.

1.30 Apache Stronghold (Nap)
2.05 Unique De Cotte (Ew)
3.20 Monksland (Ew)
4.00 Attaglance (Ew)
4.40 Clondaw Knight (Ew)

Tuesday 10 March 2015

Cheltenham 2015 - Wednesday, Day Two

Windsor Park (1.30) can land the opener on Day Two of the Cheltenham Festival, taken to reverse the form with Willie Mullins' Nichols Canyon, who bettered him last time out in the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown last month. Dermot Weld's 6-y-o was impressive in bumpers last term and has been likewise over timber, winning a Maiden Hurdle at Leopardstown and beaten four and three lengths respectively upped in class thereafter. He has yet to try the extended two and a half miles however should thrive over the longer trip and taken to get the better of Mullins' charge and Gigginstown's Outlander, for yet another Irish 1-2-3.

Kings Palace is unbeaten over the larger obstacles, including a dual scorer over course and distance, however Don Poli (2.05) is impossible to oppose and likewise puts his unblemished record over fences on the line in this year's excellent renewal of the RSA Chase. The selection was ear-marked as a potential National Hunt Chase candidate however takes his chance here, alongside connections' Wounded Warrior, and can make it 3/3 under regular pilot Bryan Cooper. The selection made a winning chase debut at Gowran Park in November and built on that further when winning the G1 Topaz Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The form has worked out excellently with the runner-up (Apache Stronghold) winning at the highest grade thereafter and 'The Don' looks yet another banker for The Irish.

A bumper field go to post for the Coral Cup and with plenty of bookmakers paying five places there's plenty of value to be had. Nicky Henderson won last year's renewal with Whisper and is represented with no less than five runners and whilst all are respected, it is hard to get away from the claims of Activial (2.40) for Harry Fry and Noel Fehily. The 5-y-o was one of the ante-post favourites for last year's Triumph Hurdle before side-tracking Prestbury Park for Aintree. Whilst disappointing that day, he has come back to place in two of the most competitive handicap hurldes of the season and remains relatively unexposed. He looks sure to appreciate the step up in trip and can continue the excellent form of the Fry stable at the expense of the well-backed pair of Goodwood Mirage and Aux Ptit Soins.

The feature Queen Mother Champion Chase sees 11 go to post and the majority boasting more questions than answers. Reigning 2m Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy impressed last time out at Chepstow but disappointed on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury and his having his third run inside five weeks, is it all coming too soon for Gary Moore's stable star? Sprinter Sacre likewise, after emptying badly last time out in the Clarence House Chase and the form with Dodging Bullets, Somersby et al looking well below what is required of a Festival hero. Champagne Fever is fascinating given his record at the Festival (1,1,2 in the last three years) however, at the bigger prices, a chance is taken on Nicky Richards' stable star Simply Ned (3.20) under regular partner Brian Harding. The selection returned winning a competitive handicap chase at Kelso and has been impressive thereafter, placed at Cheltenham and Leopardstown when upped in grade. He returns a fresh horse for an in-form stable and can justify each-way support on his preferred good, spring ground.

1.30 Windsor Park (Ew)
2.05 Don Poli (Nap)
2.40 Activial (Ew)
3.20 Simply Ned (Ew)

Monday 9 March 2015

Cheltenham 2015 - Day One

Douvan heads a field of twelve for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle however all value looks to have already been well and truly hoovered up with second favourite L’Ami Serge backed into 10/3 for Messrs Henderson and Geraghty. In a wide open race there’s plenty of value lurking around and the pair of Jollyallan for AP McCoy and Shaneshill under reliable deputy Paul Townend are the two that appeal most at the prices, however the race is more of a watching brief with connections of the two market leaders bullish about their respective chances.

The same thoughts apply to The Arkle, with 25s already taken about second favourite and general 11/2 chance Vibrato Valtat and 33s already taken about Mick Channon’s exciting novice chaser Sgt Reckless. I’ve also dipped my toe in and taken some 10/1 about Josses Hill as there’s little juice in the favourite, Un De Sceaux, and his price at odds-on. Josses Hill was beaten last time out at Kempton, as was Sgt Reckless when last seen down the field in the Christmas Hurdle, however Vibrato Valtat (2.05) boasts a pleasing and progressive profile and looks a solid each-way chance against the jolly.

A 3m handicap chase is much more my cup of tea with Alan King’s Ned Stark (2.40) a confident selection under regular partner Denis O’Regan. The selection has been a revelation this term since sent over the larger obstacles, defying marks of 126 and 130 with ease at Huntingdon and Newbury before being done by speedier rivals in the Dipper Chase at Prestbury Park on New Year’s Day. The 7-y-o bounced back beating the progressive Kaki De La Pree, the pair pulling clear, and he can continue his ascent in a race that his trainer excels in; Bensalem successful in 2011 from the exact same mark. Evan Williams’ Barrakilla and Harry Fry’s Mendip Express are respected and would be each-way alternatives if, for whatever reason, the Barbury Castle inmate wasn’t to take up his engagement and plenty of bookmakers, BetVictor included, paying five places.

Faugheen could go off prohibitively short for the feature Champion Hurdle if his stablemates Douvan and Un De Sceaux win their respective G1 contests earlier on the card however the race ultimately revolves around the unbeaten 7-y-o for Champion Trainer Willie Mullins. Ruby Walsh has opted for ‘the machine’ over stablemate and, 22x G1 winner, Hurricane Fly (and indeed Arctic Fire) and it is hard not to have been impressive by the manner of his success at the Festival last term. He has progressed into open-age company winning at Ascot and Kempton subsequently however, at the prices, The New One (3.20) must be backed for Sam and Nigel Twiston –Davies. The selection was an unlucky loser in the race last season when severely hampered by the fall of Our Conor and he can bounce back at a track where he clearly thrives.

Annie Power is different gravy to her peers in the OLBG Mares’ race and should cap-off, or perhaps salvage, the day for the Mullins and Walsh duo at the likely expense of stablemate Glens Melody.

I was very sweet on the chances of Wounded Warrior for the National Hunt Chase however connections’ Very Wood runs instead and is respected having won last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle under Paul Carberry. Sister Nina rides this year’s worthy favourite, who was impressive when scoring in a G2 Novices’ Chase last month at Navan however is overlooked for Sego Success (4.40) for Alan King and Sam Waley-Cohen. The selection follows a similar path to last season’s winner after winning a good novices’ chase at Warwick en-route to a step up in trip and is taken to land King a third success in the last eight renewals.

Stellar Notion (5.15)
should justify each-way support in the finale for Tom George and Paddy Brennan. Half of Huddersfield was on the 7-y-o when he made all to win at Kempton on Boxing Day and despite disappointing last time out at the track, has his excuses. His jockey indicated he hated the sticky ground at the track and was left in front sooner than ideal when attempting to make all. A bolder showing would have severely affected his handicap mark however he remains on an unrevised mark of 137 and should prove to be much, much better.

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Be Lucky

Cheltenham 2015 - Ante Post Portfolio

That time again aye? Here's the best that have survived actually turning hope, hopefully, in one piece this week.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Sizing John 33s - 1pt EW

Arkle

Vibrato Valtat 25s - 1pt EW
Sgt Reckless 33s - 1pt EW

QM Champion Chase
Simply Ned 25s 4pts EW
Simply Ned 25s 1pt EW
Champagne Fever 12s - 1.5pts Win

RSA Chase
Coneygree 16s - 2pts EW

World Hurdle
Monksland 20s - 1.5pts EW
Monksland 14s - 1.5pts EW

Triumph Hurdle
Top Notch 20s - 1.5pts EW

County Hurdle
Cheltenian 20s - 2.5pts EW

Gold Cup
Many Clouds 40s - 1pt EW
Many Clouds 20s - 1pt EW

Multiples


Don Cossack (7/1 Ryanair) and The New One (11/4 Champion Hurdle) Win Double

Josses Hill (10/1 Arkle) & No More Heroes (10/1 Albert Bartlett) Win Double

Blaklion (10s Albert Bartlett), The New One (5/2 Champion Hurdle), Josses Hill (10s Arkle), Dynaste (5s Ryanair) EW Lucky 15

Coneygree (12s RSA)/The New One (11/4 Champion Hurdle) Win double

Jezki (11/2 Champion Hurdle) and Jetson (16/1 World Hurdle) EW Double

Josses Hill (10s Arkle) and Boston Bob (16s Gold Cup) EW Double

Boston Bob (16s Gold Cup), Sprinter Sacre (3/1 Champion Chase and The New One (3/1 Champion Hurdle) Win Trixie

Don Poli (7/2 RSA) & Wounded Warrior (8/1 NH Chase) EW Double

Monksland (12/1 World Hurdle) & Apache Stronghold (7/1 JLT) EW Double

The New One (3/1 CH) & Monksland (14/1 World Hurdle) & Many Clouds (8/1 GC) EW Trixie

Jollyallan (10/1 Supreme) & The New One (3/1 Champion Hurdle) & Vibrato Valtat (6/1 Arkle) & Wounded Warrior (8/1 NH Chase) EW Yankee

Ned Stark (8s Festival Handicap) & Annie Power (8/15 Mares) Win Double

Apache Stronghold (11/2 JLT)) & Ned Stark (8s Festival Handicap) & Glens Melody (4s Mares) & Stellar Notion (16s Novices Handicap) EW Yankee

Apache Stronghold (11/2 JLT)) & Ned Stark (8s Festival Handicap) & Jezki (9/2 Champion Hurdle)) & Shaneshill (12s Supreme) EW Yankee