Friday 28 December 2012

Saturday at Doncaster and Newbury

Cheltenham 2013 - No Runner-Free Bet:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.

Newbury hosts a very interesting card on Saturday, with some talented novices on display, none more so curious than COLOUR SQUADRON for Phillip Hobbs and his new owner, JP McManus, who is enjoying a particularly fruitful week. He has form at novice level with the likes of Montbazon, Captain Conan and Dedigout, and was always going to make a chaser. He won first time out last year, and should take his novice chase, en route to greater things. He could be an outsider for The Arkle at The Cheltenham Festival. Another festival prospect for the same owner is MY TENT OR YOURS, who was scintillating in his maiden hurdle win at Ascot, beating next time out winner Taquin Du Seuil whilst pulling hard throughout. He runs with a penalty, but looks a good thing, and I’m personally on him for The Supreme Novices Hurdle at 25/1, so obviously very hopeful. Another horse that looks the metaphorical ‘penalty kick’ and another with festival aspirations is CLONDAW KAEMPFER, who is currently a leading player in the market for the Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has transferred his bumper form smartly, winning a listed hurdle over two miles last time out at Haydock, with plenty left in the tank. He clipped a few hurdles, and the trip was never going to suit; and over the Neptune trip, he should have further improvement, and will eventually be a smart staying chaser. Elsewhere on the card, STATE BENEFIT can follow up his win last time at Sandown, despite a 3lb rise from the handicapper. He was having his first run for 209 days, and showed his fatigue late on, so the run under his belt should help his fitness, and Barry Geraghty is legged up for the all-conquering Nicky Henderson team.


1.35 Newbury – Colour Squadron
2.10 Newbury – State Benefit
2.45 Newbury – Clondaw Kaempfer
3.50 Newbury – My Tent or Yours


Over at Doncaster, there is the usual spread of competitive and mine-field handicaps, the kind where the formbook really does need a good fettling. There are three I like the look of, the first being CORKAGE, a previous Doncaster winner, who ran with great credit when fourth over course and distance, losing by a narrow length, despite making mistakes. He should be getting his fitness sharper, and won around the track on his third start of last season after a lengthy absence. Despite a 4lb rise, he should be a player at a price. TRIPTICO won last time out, but was even more impressive when second on his seasonal debut, chasing home the promising Donald McCain chaser Kruzhlnin over an inadequate trip. Stepped up to two and a half miles saw him win coming away at Chepstow on heavy going, and there should be further to come stepped up to three miles. He should relish the ground, having handled Chepstow. Speaking of Mr McCain, he has BLACKWATER KING in the two mile handicap hurdle, which looks to have been given a very lenient mark from the handicapper; someone must have got a nice Christmas card in the post. A ten length winner of a novice hurdle at Kelso on soft ground, this point winner should be able to step up further, providing he handles the ground with aplomb.


2.25 Doncaster – Corakge
2.55 Doncaster – Triptico
3.25 Doncaster – Blackwater King


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Wednesday 19 December 2012

Christmas Punting - Ascot, Chepstow, Kempton and Leopsrdstown

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.

A big week of punting ahead with some terrific action at Ascot, Chepstow, Kempton and Leopardstown with a plethora of Group One races on offer, mixed with extremely tough and competitive handicaps.


The first of which comes at Ascot on Saturday, with The Ladbroke Hurdle on a card that is set to have Nicky Henderson’s heavy artillery unleashed, including the promising Simonsig. The Ladbroke Hurdle was won last year by Raya Star for Alan King, and he has the current ante post favourite in Balder Success, beating the tough juvenile Hollow Tree easily last time out at Haydock. He looks unexposed, has course form and loves soft ground, and is sure to be a leading player. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have been mopping up Saturday cards so far this season, and have two leading fancies in Ranjaan and Cash and Go, but a stable that burst into form last Saturday was Emma Lavelle’s. Wins for Highland Lodge, Court In Motion, Easter Meteor and Caught By Surprise all winning valuable prizes. Her next dart to throw is CLARET CLOAK who ran a stormer to finish third when punted off the boards last time out over course and distance, tiring late on. Dominic Elsworth will likely be back on board, and is another enjoying a purple patch, riding for Emma Lavelle, Mick Channon, and Paul Webber. His record for the last six rides reads 161122 – and is in good fettle.


We all know what the real highlight of Christmas is, and it isn’t listening to your nan bring back her sprouts via the rumblings of the methane soaked sofa. No, one of the highlights of the horse racing calendar is, The King George VI Chase at Kempton Park, a race that Kauto Star has dominated since the turn of the millennium, winning a record breaking five times. Paul Nicholls has his half-brother Kauto Stone, but he isn’t in the same league. Versatile performers such as Captain Chris, Hunt Ball, The Giant Bolster and Champion Court don’t look to have the class to win a Grade 1 Chase over three miles.

Riverside Theatre and Long Run of Nicky Henderson head the market, but stablemate FINIANS RAINBOW is well worth a punt at bigger prices. The Champion Chaser won over two and a half miles at Aintree, and the step up in trip will suit, as long as it doesn’t come up too soft. GRANDS CRUS is another over-priced horse due to a poor performance last time out on soft, but won The Feltham Chase over course and distance in a quicker time than The King George. Both horses he beat that day are unbeaten with Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth winning five graded races since. Both could end up dropping down in trip for The Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in March, and with BetVictor’s Non Runner-Free Bet offer, look well worth a punt in that market too.


The Welsh National has been the plan for TEAFORTHREE ever since winning The National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March. He showed tremendous guts and tenacity to battle back, and after being headed after trying to make all. The ground was probably on the quick side for him then, and the mud at Chepstow will play in his favour. He has had two runs to get him fit, and jumped extremely impressively both starts at Cheltenham and Newbury. Everything is in his favour, and he looks an extremely good bet.


Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival looks an absolute cracker, with a host of Grade 1’s, and that will probably throw up a host of contenders for Cheltenham glory, with the two mile novice hurdle being a particularly strong looking renewal. The Lexus Chase is set up to be a great renewal, with Tidal Bay, Flemenstar and Hidden Cyclone being stand out entries, but the horse with everything in his favour is SIR DES CHAMPS. Willie Mullins superstar lost his unbeaten tag last time out to Flemenstar, but fitter, stronger and over a better trip, he should be cherry ripe for three miles around Leopardstown under Davy Russell.



Ladbroke Hurdle – Claret Cloak 1pt EW
King George VI Chase – Grands Crus 1pt Win & Finians Rainbow 1pt Win
Welsh National – Teaforthree 3pts EW
Lexus Chase – Sir Des Champs 2pt Win


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Thursday 13 December 2012

Friday at Cheltenham's December Meeting

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.


We’re back at Cheltenham tomorrow, and a solid card on Friday, featuring a nice batch of novices and handicaps, hopefully there should be some value around. Let’s have a delve in – so to speak.


The first race is a novices chase that Nicky Henderson in particularly has a good record in, winning it last year with Solix amongst others. Barry Geraghty this time rides Broadback Bob, and although impressive last time out, he didn’t beat a lot, and I expect him to be very short on reputation alone. Forgotten Gold grinded out a win at Aintree over three miles over a next time out winner, but looks a grinder, and dropping back in trip isn’t guaranteed to be suited. I don’t like the look of Rebel Rebellion and Super Duty and although under the burden of top weight, HILDISVINI looks to be a chance. He was very impressive when winning over two and a half miles at Huntingdon, twice beating the Emma Lavelle trained Well Regarded, the second win under a penalty. His jumping was very, very good, the stable are in good nick, and the son of Milan looks to have a very eye-catching profile for a race such as this.


The conditional jockey’s handicap looks an open affair but there are two who I will personally be backing and those are PLEIN POUVOIR and LEXICON LAD. The first, runs for the in form Venetia Williams stable, a week after slogging out a three mile handicap chase at Wincanton. He looked very tired towards the latter stages, and back down to two miles five should suit. Talented apprentice Harry Challoner takes the ride instead of Aiden Coleman, and takes off 3lb. Lexicon Lad is down to a mark of 118 for his reappearance at Aintree, and is at the same mark when he gave his best performance to date, over course and distance here in January. He finished a very game second to Alan King’s Bless the Wings that day, and the form of that race has worked out very well. His form over this trip is U3132 – but he has found defeat to the likes of Havingotascoobydo, Bless The Wings, Trafalgar Road and Pasco, and he looks well handicapped.


Another handicap hurdle, this time over the extended two miles, and another tough contest, however it is very hard to see past the DAN BREEN for the red hot Pipe stable, whose stable seem to come good just before a big Cheltenham meeting, and this week has been no different. He looks to capitalise on his relatively low hurdles mark, for a horse placed in a Celebration Chase and Greatwood Gold Cup. He had a smart spin around Ascot last month, running behind next time out winner Petit Robin Talented claimer Frank Haynes, who had a winner for the yard on Thursday.


Midnight Chase is a Cheltenham specialist, winning here for the last three seasons, but under the burden of top weight against classier rivals that appear well handicapped could bring him to be unstuck. The two I like are ground and market dependant, those being PLANET OF SOUND and QUARTZ DE THAIX. I tipped up Quartz de Thaix last time out and he looks a very smart staying chaser. Although up 17lb, he is very progressive and looks to have further scope to improve. He has won at the track before and again for the red hot Venetia. Planet of Sound who looked in needing the run when behind Silviniaco Conti at Wetherby but he could run a big race trickling down the handicap if the ground doesn’t get too desperate, and may be a price in the process. Market vibes will likely suggest just how good a run he will put in.


I don’t really have an overly opinion of the cross country race, but the two stand outs are obvious ones with the Mullins and Bolger yards thriving in these races. If you can get around even money coupled on them, take it, but don’t get your beak too wet, but it would be a bit of an understatement to say UNCLE JUNIOR and ARABELLA BOY look the two. Go figure.


I tipped up CROSS KENNON last time out, taking 28/1 the night before, and seeing it get gubbed when backed into 16/1 was rather painful, but he gives us an opportunity to make amends. Up 5lb but still a very game and genuine horse, and I can see him running well. Slightly shorter trip should suit, and he is guaranteed to be there or thereabouts at a track where he has a good record. MONETARY FUND was third that day and would be another to grab some place money, if all goes to plan that is.

Another I backed last time out was VILLAGE VIC, and that effort was just too bad to be true. He has a lot of potential, and although a very trappy contest, he would be a hesitant selection. Again, nothing overboard, save yourself for Saturday folks, it’s a marathon, not a sprint!


12.15 Cheltenham – Hildisvini
12.45 Cheltenham – Plein Pouvoir & Lexicon Lad
1.20 Cheltenham – Dan Breen (Nap)
1.55 Cheltenham – Quartz De Thaix & Planet Of Sound
2.30 Cheltenham – Uncle Junior & Arabella Boy
3.05 Cheltenham – Cross Kennon & Monetary Fund
3.40 Cheltenham – Village Vic


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports