Goodwood and Newmarket Tipping - August 27th 2011

The best bet of a competitive weekend of solid group racing, spread across three countries, at the Curragh in Ireland with unbeaten Maybe running in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, at Longchamp and Deauville in France, and at Newmarket and Goodwood in England, with the highlight being the Betfair Celebration Mile, a race that is seen as prelude to the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day in October.

Starting with the Celebration Mile, the clear and outstanding horse on form, merit and record is the Godolphin horse POET'S VOICE, who bids to give Frankie Dettori back to back victories on the four year old colt, and continue the stables sensational form. The stable led Opinion Poll to successful back to back victories of Opinion Poll last week, and it seems the stable are hitting peak form, with Blue Bunting winning the Yorkshire Oaks and Blue Harbour in the Melrose Handicap, both at York, reinforced the form, and given Poet's Voice is clearly a group one horse, he is in a different league to these rivals, and providing the team have him cherry ripe, he should win on the snaff.

Another perceived banker of Saturday is DRUNKEN SAILOR for in form Kieren Fallon and trainer Luca Cumani. The gelded son of Tendulkar was fortunate to win over a mile and a half at Goodwood in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes, when fortunate to receive a Fallon special, getting up the inside rail and squeezing his way through to get up on the line. That was in conditions against the proven stayer, who has creditable efforts in the Melbourne Cup and the Northumberland Plate to his name, races over two miles. The Windflower March Stakes is a Listed race over 1 mile 6 furlongs, which is another step in Drunken Sailor having another crack at 'The race that stops a nation', and although he has to give 10lb in weight for age allowance to the Sir Mark Prescott trained Motrice, with Fallon in form, and conditions to suit, he is another in the banker category for Saturday.

Trainer James Fanshawe has experienced something of a reneisance of praise and adulation ever since his double at Royal Ascot including Prohibit in the Kings Stand Stakes, and 'The Skeleton' can celebrate another double, with two very promising runners in back to back races at Newmarket. The first is tough and consistent sprtiner MAC'S POWER, who aims to finally get his nose in front, in what can only be described as a frustating season. Since his seasonal reappearance, he finished a disappointing 7th at Royal Ascot, before good runs in Class Two handicaps at Ascot and Goodwood, finishing third in both races. There should be more to come from the gelding, and if he were to get just a smidgen of luck in running, he has the potential to be very dangerous.

Fanshawe's other chance will also have stable jockey Pat Cosgrave on board and is recent maiden winner HIGH JINX, who is thrown into a handicap for the first time, and has been given a very leniant mark from the assessor. The well bred son of High Chapparal looked to banish worries of greeness when winning a good maiden at Doncaster by 5 lengths. Four horses down the race have since come out and won, the most notable of which being Wayward Glance, running a creditable fifth in the Melrose Handicap at York last week. High Jinx ran well behind future superstar Mijhaar, finishing third that day, and the form has once again been backed up. Although a tough handicap, with horses such as Ittrad of Roger Varian and Haylaman of Ed Dunlop being dangerous, High Jinx has infinite potential and the handicapper has to be punished for giving us a rare chance!

2.15 Goodwood - Drunken Sailor (Nap)

3.20 Goodwood - Poet's Voice

3.30 Newmarket - Mac's Power

4.00 Newmarket - High Jinx (Ew)

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Midweek Talking Turf - August 24th Catterick and Chepstow

After a great week at York, where our nap on Saturday Opinion Poll (3/1) completed back to back victories in the Lonsdale Cup and Twice Over (11/2) won the Juddmonte International, made it a great week for followers, and long may it continue.

Racing this Wednesday is another is interesting mix, with all weather action from Kempton and Wolverhampton in the evening and a summer jumps card at Worcester plus flat meetings at Chepstow and Catterick in the afternoon.

The jockey of the moment is the golden girl of racing, The Head Turner, Hayley Turner, who has won successive group one sprint races. Last week she followed up her July Cup win on Dream Ahead for David Simcock with a Nunthorpe Stakes win on Margot Did for her boss, Michael Bell.

She goes to Chepstow on Wednesday to ride for Marcus Tregoning, for whom she won the Totesport Mile aboard Boom and Bust. Her rides include CAVALIERO, who has finished placed in each of his three maiden efforts so far this season. The son of Derby winner Sir Percy can finally go one better in this one mile maiden contest.

Turner looks to have another cracking ride on hat-trick seeking SWENDAB. The gelding has been very good to his followers this season, showing his resilience in game victories over the minimum trip at Windsor and Doncaster on his last two starts. He carries a 6lb penalty for his most recent win, but his win last time was cosy enough to suggest he is still ‘well in’ with the handicapper.

I always like to see horses returning to the ‘scene of their crime’ when winning a race and going on to attempt defending their crown the following year and MR WOLF aims to do this in the 6f handicap at 4.20. Mr Wolf won the race last year off a mark of 73 with Barry McHugh on board.

Coming back this year, he is off a mark of 70, with the same jockey, and some decent form with him. His last two runs over five furlongs, he finished second beaten by a neck at Pontefract, and although disappointing when a beaten favourite at the same track a week later, there looks to be more to come and could be the value selection in a trappy handicap.

Lady Bayside is another runner in a tough handicap but she loosk to be an improver and I give her a cracking shout in the 3:00 at Chepstow. The well bred filly has improved with every run this season, progressing in maidens, before being stepped up in trip in handicap company. She then reverted to a maiden and ran out a comfortable winner, keeping on well over seven furlongs. This has led to her being upped in trip to a mile, and the stronger test of stamina should definitely suit for the Chepstow specialist who, in four runs, has never been unplaced here.

2.30 Chepstow – Cavaliero (Nap)

3.00 Chepstow – Lady Bayside (Ew)

4.00 Chepstow – Swendab

4.20 Catterick – Mr Wolf (Ew)

York Ebor Meeting - Ebor Day Analysis and Selections

York culminates on Saturday with an terrific card, which has a terrific variety, including races for stayers and sprinters alike, with the card roundly finished off with the Betfred Ebor, one of the handicap betting opportunities of the season. The market is currently headed by Goodwood Cup second Lost in the Moment for Frankie Dettori and the Godolphin Team, who has been given a favourable draw, along with the Brian Ellison trained Saptapadi.

Starting from the first race and working our way through, the first race is the City of York Stakes, a seven furlong listed race, which was won last year by Yaa Wayl. He was a 5/1 shot last year for Michael Jarvis, and looks to go back to back, this time for team Godolphin. He is in good form after winning a conditions race after a 133 day break, and should go close once more. The Dandy Nicholls trained Regal Parade should have conditions to suit, and has been tough and resilient this year, but doesn’t seem to have the fight to win these days, and his heart seems to be questionable. The most interesting horse is the unexposed KING TORUS for the Richard Hannon yard. He looked to be a potential Guineas horse when winning the Superlative and Vintage Stakes (both Group 2) at Newmarket and Goodwood festivals last July and was earmarked as having a bright future. He has been unlucky with injury, and seeks to make amends here and get his three year old season to a belated and successful start.

The Lonsdale Cup is another race in the British Champion Series, towards the stayers division, and recent Goodwood Cup winner OPINION POLL looks to easily have the best chance here, following up from his victory here last year. His form is absolutely rock solid. He finished second to Fame and Glory, an Irish Derby winner in the Ascot Gold Cup, the pair pulling clear of the field. He followed that up with an excellent win at Goodwood, with perhaps an even stronger field than Ascot, beating tough handicappers such as Overturn and Fox Hunt with relative ease. He goes better with cut in the ground, and the forecast rain should give him an even greater edge over this field, making it back to back victories for Opinion Poll and Frankie Dettori.

The Betfred Ebor is the showpiece race of the meeting, with 20 runners competing for a first prize over £130,000. Expect a gamble from shrewd northern trainers, with trainers Easterby, Johnston, Barron all famous for landing a plunge, and this could be the same again with SAPTAPADI having an outstanding chance for northern trainer Brian Ellison. The former Sir Michael Stoute horse has been progressive this year, with his run last time out, beaten narrowly by subsequent group one winner Twice, looking very strong. The step up in trip should definitely suit, and he has been laid out for this race. Kieren Fallon being booked on board is another massive plus for the five year old gelding, who comes into his element at York. Lost in the Moment looks a strong chance for the Godolphin camp, who finished a game second behind Opinion Poll at Goodwood, which on bare form looks very good. He is another who has been aimed at this race and seems the stable have really aimed at this meeting this year. MODUN is a hose of great interest for Sir Michael Stoute, finishing a narrow second at Goodwood when being a supposed handicap good thing. He was staying on that day, and the trip of 14 furlongs look ideal. On pedigree he should be a group horse, and so he could be a major dark horse in a race like this.

2.00 York – King Torus

3.05 York – Opinion Poll (Nap)

3.40 York – Saptapadi (Ew) & Modun (Ew)

York Ebor Meeting - Midweek Tipping

This week York plays host to one of the highlights of the flat season with the Ebor meeting. Racing kicks off on Wednesday, the rescheduled calendar meaning that the Ebor itself will be run on a Saturday.

Irish Derby runner up Seville trained by Aidan O’ Brien, is the hot favourite for teh Great Voltigeur, a traditional St Leger trial run on the opening day. He is unsure to see out the trip fully while second favourite Sea Moon is another horse with potential but is taking a massive step up in class. The Mark Johnston trained NAMIBIAN looks to tick all the boxes here.

He stays the trip, winning the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, and followed that up with a narrow victory over fellow St Leger hopeful Fiorente. He is versatile, winning over 2 miles on good to soft ground, then a mile and a half on good ground, so trip and ground are not an issue, and at around the 4/1 mark, he looks terrific value.

Another impressive winner at a recent festival, Gamilati, runs in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes on Thursday for trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni and perennial punter’s favourite Frankie Dettori. She looks to have a lot on her plate however, with horses such as My Propeller, Intreobil and Best Terms who all look promising.

The two I prefer are FIRE LILY and SHUMOOS. David Wachman’s Fire Lily looks to have strong claims, especially with her having shown she can handle cut in the ground. The well bred daughter of Dansili was found out on good ground, but returned to form when winning the Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh on soft and should thrive on this ground once more. Shumoos has solid form in the book with both her maiden win and subsequent run in the Queen Mary Stakes looking sound. Although behind Best Terms that day, she looks to have plenty of room for progress and could go close at a price.

TWICE OVER bounced back to form when winning the Group 2 York Stakes last month, and he attempts to continue his fine form at the track when seeking consecutive course and distance wins when lining up in the Juddmonte International Stakes on Wednesday. He’ll be trying to give his owner, race sponsor Khalid Abdulla, a first ever win in his own race and came close last year when finishing second behind Rip Van Winkle, having been caught close home.

His form this season started off shakily but Sir Henry Cecil has been patient with him and rejuvenated the six year old. Stablemate Midday has been in excellent form this year and receives 3lb from her male counterparts while current favourite Await The Dawn looked a bit special when winning the Hardwicke at Ascot. Await The Dawn is being prepared for a tilt at the Breeders Cup Classic so Wednesday may not be his day and, with Twice Over a proven yardstick and available at 5./1, the Cecil colt looks good each way value.

Jack Milner

3.05 York (Wednesday) – Namibian (Nap)

3.40 York (Wednesday) – Twice Over (Ew)

2.30 York (Thursday) – Fire Lily & Shumoos

Ripon and Newbury - Saturday 13th August

Saturday sees Ripon take a rare centre stage when the North Yorkshire track hosts its annual showpiece fixture, including the William Hill Great St Wilfred, a Class 2 sprint handicap with a £43,575 prize for the winner.

Such a healthy prize fund usually attracts the cream from the northern sprint division and the attention of the top trainers. This year is no exception with Tim Easterby, David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan, Richard Fahey, and the sprint king himself, Dandy Nicholls, all represented. Last year’s winner Damika is again in the line up, but so is the runner-up on that occasion, the Dandy Nicholls trained TAJNEED, who looked a ‘handicap good thing’ before narrowly going down by a neck

Tajneed has been in great form once more this season. The course and distance winner has been running well in good handicaps all year, never being beaten more than 6 lengths in races such as the Stewards Cup, Scottish Stewards Cup, Paddy Power Sprint and the Skybet Dash. He loves this course, and his recent second to Hoof It highlights that he is in good heart.

Pabusar and the hat-trick seeking Pepper Lane look to be the only serious threats to Tajneed gaining revenge for both his trainer and punters following last year’s burnt fingers.

Newbury hosts yet another fantastic day on the flat, including the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes and the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes which features the much anticipated return of Brown Panther to UK soil.

The Geoffrey Freer Stakes rounds off the afternoon with an interesting renewal. Last year Sans Frontieres won before going on to become a group one winner. A lot of strong contenders may line up including Dandino, Harris Tweed, Fox Hunt but we will stay loyal to BROWN PANTHER, who was formidable at Royal Ascot. He looks a St Leger horse in the making, and the step up in trip should be no problem at all after hacking up over 12f in the soft ground at the royal meeting six weeks ago. He didn’t get the run of the race in Hamburg in the German Derby, and he should be able to bounce back to form here getting a lot of weight from his older rivals.

3.05 Newbury – Brown Panther

3.30 Ripon – Tajneed (Ew)

August 10th - Yarmouth and Salisbury Tipping

Solid racing on Wednesday at both Salisbury and Yarmouth, and both seem to have gone to a lot of effort, which is extremely commendable in times of prize money cuts and Salisbury in particular should be applauded with putting on a 10 furlongs Listed race for fillies worth £30,000.

It is that race that we first take an in depth look at, which to give it it’s full name the ‘Exceed and Excel Upavon Fillies Stakes’, run over 10 furlongs at 4.05 at Salisbury. A lot of good fillies in this race, including some group horses including 1000 Guineas favourite from last year Seta and Anna Salai who was fancied for last years Coronation Stakes. Anna Salai has solid form after finishing second to Timepiece in a listed race behind Seta, before flopping in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot. Although she is expected to appreciate the step up in trip, she has ground to find on Seta, and should be overlooked. The Sir Mark Prescott trained Clinical is an interesting horse, with her third place finish ahead of Timepiece in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) being a very smart performance, with the form being franked through Timepiece winning a listed race and the Falmouth Stakes in her next two outings. That being said, top rated horse SETA looks to set the standard and should take all the beating. She seems to thrive on good ground, and her only two losses this year have come on unsuitable ground in last years Falmouth and this years Windsor Castle Stakes, Group One and Two races respectively. Her other four victories have all been in listed company, and she seems to thrive in this company, clearly being better than the grade. Kieren Fallon clearly gets on with the horse, and he is the man of the moment after his victory in the French Oaks Sunday on Dancing Rain.

A solid class four handicap is the appetiser to the main course at Salisbury and the Clive Cox trained PERFECT CRACKER looks to hold the answers to this trappy handicap. Dropped in after the mandatory three runs, he was unlucky last time out in a maiden finishing a ¾ lengths third behind the Sir Henry Cecil trained Celestyna. His first run he was just two lengths behind mass prize winning Measuring Time of Richard Hannon, and the form from that race looks good. He is stoutly bred, and would look to hold a solid each way chance, with the Godolphin horse Terdaad most likely to shorten the market, especially with Frankie going to ride.

Deacon Blues hacked up for trainer James Fanshawe Sunday, and ‘The Skeleton’ can have another winner Wednesday through Llewellyn Steadily improving with three maiden runs, the gelded son of Shamardal looks to be on an upward curve and is another who debuts in handicap company. The form of her last maiden looks solid and he should be a decent price too..

4.05 Salisbury – Seta (Nap)

3.35 Salisbury – Perfect Cracker (Ew)

2.50 Yarmouth – Llewellyn

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

August/September Prospects Blog

I wrote in our last rendezvous about the ‘dream job’ that had seemingly arisen, which miraculously as it sounds seems to have incorporated all of the attributes that I have been able to acquire over my several frowned upon interests over the last couple of years. Social media, writing and an interest in sports were the three key skills highlighted on the job description, and it can be answered in no uncertain terms whatsoever; I tick all three. You can ask many a punter who comes into the shop wanting a quiet bet, I never shut up. I can talk about sports until blue in the face, since a very early age, I just love it. Darts, football, rugby, cricket, horse racing, snooker, to name but a few. Even playing football last Sunday for my team (That’s What She Said), one of our opponents merely five minutes into the game shouted “does that lad ever shut up”, so I did the only logical thing to do, talk and shout more and louder.

The aspect of social media would be a doddle, as I am constantly procrastinating on facebook and twitter, again, usually discussing cricket, darts, racing on twitter with my loyal and many followers (cheap plug for @JJMsports). I have also been able to hone my writing skills through my monthly rantings here on Prospects, bemoaning my luck in life and wishing to return to my placement year here in 2008/2009, which was probably the best year in my rollercoaster of a life. I have also been writing for a company called The Racing Forum, as a lead writer and generally intern, helping with things like social media, competitions, and general maintenance etc, basically a solid foundation and experience to plaster onto the Curriculum Vitae.

So I should go close it would seem. My interview is Canary Wharf in London on Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately as is the way in my life, I am less than prepared. I am yet to sort out my portfolio, train tickets, general plan of action, and the fated meeting is in 72 hours.

Knowing what to do and say is something that I should be offering tips and advice on, however it seems a matter of ‘Do as I say, not as I do’. Every time I try to plan something, I draw the proverbial blank, and as I am not one who likes to fret or worry, I will just ignore it and do something else.

I will have to ultimately face up to having to sort a plan together if I do want to achieve what is called in business as ‘Self-actualisation’, doing a job that you actually love, rather than seeing as just work. Writing and talking about sports for a living would be that dream. Dreams rarely come true. I shall let you know next month.

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Weekend Article August 6th 2011 - Newmarket and Haydock Park

The Shergar Cup is a great spectacle with teams from UK, Ireland, Europe and Rest of the World competing in tough handicaps at Ascot Saturday, and although there looks to be some promising chances, especially for trainer Mark Johnston, however we will focus our attention on racing at Newmarket and Haydock Saturday and Sunday at the Curragh in the group one Phoenix Stakes.

We start off with LAST BID who runs in 5 furlong Nursery in the 1.45 at Haydock Park, and looks in good order after completing the hatrick with a good win two weeks ago in a class three handicap over the same trip. He looks to be progressing nicely for the in form Tim Easterby yard, and although carrying top weight, he won comfortably, with a lot in hand last time, and looks way ahead of the handicapper.

PEKAN STAR was punted off t he boards in the John Smiths Cup at York last month as if losing was out of the question, but flopped when weakening badly after coming there looking for all money the winner 2 furlongs out. Even though he finished fifteen of nineteen runners, he only lost by eleven lengths and jockey Neil Callan did not ask too much of the colt, and the son of Montjeu is still progressing. Six of the eleven horses who have since run have been at least placed, so the form is solid, and he has a great opportunity to bounce back to form in a dramatic way at HQ.

REEM is a very interesting runner to say the least for South African trainer Mike De Kock, who has set up a shuttle stable in Newmarket for the second half of the flat season with a big charge on some of Europe’s top prizes. He runs recent Meydan Listed winner Reem who also finished second at Meydan behind UAE Oaks runner up Mahbooba and Dubai Duty Free runner up River Jetez. The Galileo filly looks well treated running in a UK handicap for the first time, and if has adapted to UK conditions and settled well, would have a very good chance.

1.45 Haydock – Last Bid (Nap)

2.05 Newmarket – Pekan Star

2.40 Newmarket - Reem

Four meetings, two days, four tips, four winners? 3/8/11 and 4/8/11

This week I have looked at racing from the length and breadth of jolly old England, and we have four selections from four separate meetings over Wednesday and Thursday, afternoon and evening meetings. On Wednesday we have a selection from Pontefract and Newcastle and Thursday Haydock and Sandown.

The best bet of the four appears to be CARABOSS, who is owned by Her Majesty The Queen, and looked very smart when breaking her maiden tag last time out at Newcastle, and the tough run in there will have made the filly learn a lot, and has progressed with every run, finishing fourth of eighteen, then third of eleven before eventually breaking her duck. Debuting in handicap company, she appears to have gained a very lenient mark, and should go close.

ROMAN EAGLE looks to be a colt with boundless promise for the in form trainer Roger Varian, and he runs in the 4:10 at Haydock Park, which is a class three handicap over a mile. The colt shaped well last season, winning on debut and also a conditions race, with a respectable run in the Two Year Old Trophy sandwiched in between. He looked liked he needed the run when a six length sixth racing after a 280 day absence, and given the way the yards horses come on, he looks like he will laugh in the face of the handicapper.

This column a few weeks ago pointed out the form of the EASTERBY yard, and he well and truly followed up in the last couple of weeks with recent tips Last Bid last week, and Hoof it most recently in the Stewards Cup both winning for the yard, and we have a further two horses here on Wednesday. In the 5:10 at Pontefract the filly LIZZIE can build on her recent win at Thirsk over the same distance. The filly hacked up and has clearly trained on from two to three years. The second that day won next time out after being heavily supported, and she looks to be tough as nails. The trainer also has another decent prospect in LITTLE JIMMY ODSOX looks like a sprinter with an incredibly bright future, and the unbeaten son of Namid takes another step up when running at Newcastle. The gelding has won a maiden and then his debut in handicap company, and winning fairly comfortably. Melodise who ran him close that day has since won next time out, and given the yards form, he should win, and expect a plunge on him in the market too.

7.20 Sandown Thursday – Caraboss (Nap)

4.10 Haydock (Thursday) – Roman Eagle

5:10 Pontefract (Wednesday) – Lizzie

3.20 Newcastle (Wednesday) – Little Jimmy Odsox

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner