Weekend Racing Preview April 2nd and 3rd

The traditional start of the flat season is marked by the prestigious £100,000 Lincoln handicap and this year’s renewal is once again at Doncaster racecourse on Saturday. The race has an illustrious history of horses, trainers and owners and was won last year by the heavily supported favourite Penitent, for William Haggas for Chevely Park Stud.

The race has 22 runners declared and the warm favourite is the John Gosden trained Taqleed, who is a potential group horse, masquerading as a handicapper. He looks promising, but his current price looks a bit skinny and the value is elsewhere, and most notably those trained by Richard Fahey. The Malten trainer has 5 runners, and there are two notable standouts, the first being last years runner up PRIME EXHIBIT who warmed up nicely for this, finishing 2 lengths third behind Lowther in the Lincoln Trial. He will be receiving 7lb in the weights and Lee Topliss takes a very valuable 5lb off too. Penitent who he finished behind in this last year went on to win and place in Listed Races, and horses down in this race have also come out and ran well, further franking the form. Fahey also trains Brae Hill, Harrison George, Irish Heartbeat and our other selection OUR JOE MAC, who showed a great deal of promise when finishing 13^th of 14^th in the Irish Lincoln. That was his first race for 183 days and was travelling strongly before fading and tiring at the 2 furlong mark. That run should have him cherry ripe for the day, and both selections look to have very strong each way chances.

There is a good all weather card at Kempton Park as well Saturday, including two listed races, and could prove to be yet another successful day for the John Gosden and William Buick partnership. However the best bet there is Christmas Aria, for the progressing partnership of Hayley Turner riding for Simon Dow and runs in the 5.40, or as Derrick Thompson would say, the lucky last! Christmas Aria made a good start to handicapping with a solid third last time out, and he is progressing with every run, and runs into a weak race, and runs off the same handicap mark for that third last week.

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY makes his anticipated and long awaited return at the Curragh Sunday and he is most definitely one to keep an eye of as Ballydoyle aim to focus on their older horses this season. With the likes of Fame and Glory, Cape Blanco and Australian import So You Think, there seems to be a distinct shift and the Racing Post Trophy winner can be the spearhead. The long time ante post favourite for the 1000 guineas was written off after finishing sixth, but people forget how strong the form turned out to be. He finished sixth behind Makfi, Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin, all of whom went on to win subsequent Group 1 races. Xtension ran creditably in group races, and the Craven winner Elusive Pimpernel has yet to be seen again. St Nicholas Abbey will take all the beating in the Alleged Listed Stakes Sunday, officially rated 14lb better than his closest rival, the Dermot Weld trained Cashelgar, imported from the Alan De Royer Dupre yard in France.

Prime Exhibit and Our Joe Mac – 3.10 Doncaster (EW)

Christmas Aria – 5.40 Kempton

St Nicholas Abbey - 4.00 Curragh (Sunday)

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Wednesday 30th March 2011 Selections

The flat season is officially back on Wednesday, with an arguably anticlimactic seasonal opener at Catterick races. Although the season usually starts with the prestigious Lincoln handicap at Doncaster, this season sees a fresh approach, and the top northern jockeys and trainers alike are out in force. It may not have the same buzz as the Lincoln, but there will still be a great atmosphere and a chance to pick a couple of nice priced winners.

One of the leading northern partnerships is trainer David ‘Dandy’ Nicholls and son Adrian Nicholls. They have two leading fancies Wednesday, the first being the promising maiden SINADINOU. He seeks to lose his maiden tag at the third attempt in the 4.20 race and clearly has a lot going for him. He has been running on all weather tracks in a bid to get off the mark, and the change to turf, based on breeding, should suit. He has the highest official rating, and connections took the exact same race last year, so clearly know how to get a horse ready for the start of the season.

The Nicholls family could be celebrating at double at the track with their other runner, FREMEN, who runs in a claimer race, with son Adrian once again booked to be on board. He has ran fantastically well in these type of races last year, going on a run of 8 victories in 9 races during 2009/2010, especially thriving in the early parts of last season completing a hatrick when winning at Musslburgh in June. He had his first run in 139 days when finishing a tiring 5^th at Southwell, and the help of a run, and should run a very good race. He has the added benefit of being officially 2lb worse off of nearest rival thrust control, but will be 6lb better in at the weights.

Wednesday may be the start of the flat season, but there is still very good national hunt racing on, and with upcoming festivals at Aintree and Punchestowns, not to mention Sandown and Galway, eyes are still peeled to notice jockey and trainers who are at the top of their game. A partnership having a very good year is Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson, Racing Post Trophy and Arkle winners, who have a runner in the 2.50 novice chase at Hereford races on Wednesday. Since switching to novice chasing, the horse has been extremely unlucky to encounter some very tough opposition. His last three runs, he has come unstuck against Chicago Grey (National Hunt Chase Winner), Wayward Prince (One length third in the RSA Chase) and Time For Rupert (RSA Chase favourite). There looks to be nothing of that level of standard this time, and providing his jumping is up to scratch, he should prevail here.

Wednesday 30^th March 2011

Balthazar King 3.10 Hereford

Fremen 3.50 Catterick

Sinadinou 4.20 Catterick

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Weekend Article - Winter Derby Day

The national hunt season is winding down, with Aintree and Punchestowns festivals ensuring that it goes out with a bang, but this Saturday, eyes will be fixated on the flat, and in particular, Lingfield Park, which hosts The Winter Derby An impressive card also has the Spring Cup, and the Sprint Stakes, both of which are listed races, and both are sponsored by sportingbet.

Starting with the Winter Derby, where the standout entry is the Clive Cox trained DANSILI DANCER, who was mightily impressive when winning the listed floodlit stakes at Kempton Park in November in a dead heat with the 1/2 favourite Mastery, the former St Leger winner. The form from the race has worked out very well, with a number of contenders plying their trade at Meydan racecourse in Dubai over the winter. Outsiders for the Kempton race Age of Reason (20/1) and Once More Dubai (25/1) have both been up in class, and both have registered place efforts racing in high profile handicaps there. The deserved favourite is nideeb, trained by Clive Britain in the notorious Saeed Manana colours. He has solid form from last autumn, including winning the Churchill stakes over course and distance, followed by a game second in the Flower Stakes, and could pose a large danger.

The Spring Cup, whilst not having the largest field of runners seen for the renewal, is competitive none the less. Richard Hannon approaches this double handed, and whilst both have solid claims, Dubawi Gold and Vanguard Dream, are both unproven on the surface. Our selection here is the ultra consistent BATHWHICK BEAR for the successful Paul Evans and Richard Evans partnership. He has the advantage of having a run already this season, finishing third at Deauville last week, and should come on for the run.

The last selection will be in the sportingbet.co.uk Supports Hever Sprint Stakes, to give it its full title. The king of sprint races last year was Dandy Nicholls, who cleaned up winning the Stewards Cup with Evens and Odds, as well as Redford under the guidance of Frankie Dettori won the Ayr Gold Cup, and then the Heritage Cup. He runs SILAAH here, who is back from a recent stint in Dubai. He ran three times, running well on all three occasions, the best run being a second behind Green Beret, making all before being caught on the line. He finished 4 lengths sixth of a Goldolphin 1-2 before a 10 lengths defeat of the impressive Bankable in again, a strong field. In his last 5 starts on British all weather tracks, his record is 22211, so clearly thrives on conditions and should go close once more.

All at Lingfield Park

2.00 – Silaah

2.35 Bathwick Bear

3.10 Dansili Dancer

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Grand National Ante Post

Originally posted on www.theracingforum.co.uk on 24/2/03

State The Grand National Ante Post Play

The Grand National is the world’s most famous race and is also the richest National Hunt race in the racing calendar. The Aintree spectacle is a gruelling 4 miles 4 furlongs and provides a stiff stamina test. Jumping ability is also challenged with some famous fences such as Bechers Brook and The Chair enjoying widespread, and much deserved, notoriety.

The weights were announced for the 2011 renewal last week so it seems a good time to take a look at the runners to try and pinpoint some possible value in the ante-post market.

Last year’s race was won by Don’t Push It, who ended the National jinx for champion jockey AP McCoy. McCoy had never won the race before in 16 attempts, and it was the one race missing on his illustrious CV. Trainer Jonjo O’ Neill had also been unsuccessful during his career as a jockey, failing to win despite numerous attempts. Don’t Push It won well last year, and for that win has been given a rise of 5lb in the weights. The only horse to win back to back Grand Nationals in living memory was the legendary Red Rum, and with talk of AP McCoy not committing to ride him again in this year’s renewal, I’m prepared to overlook Don’t Push It this time around.

An interesting contender from last year’s Grand National field is the Evan Williams trained STATE OF PLAY. He finished 4^th in 2009 and followed that up with a 3^rd in 2010, staying on tremendously well towards the end of the race, so stamina is a huge plus. The course and the fences are unique and, like Cheltenham, horses either take to Aintree and thrive, or don’t adapt and find it difficult to get round.

State of Play has been given a weight of 10st-6lbs which seems to be generous enough. His 4^th in 2009 was off 10-9 and for last year’s 3^rd place finish he carried 11-0, so this bodes well for his chances. He goes well fresh and Evan Williams has said this has been his main aim all season.

Another fantastic prospect is the Ferdy Murphy trained BIG FELLA THANKS. The horse was named after Harry Findlay’s prize-winning greyhound and the 9 year old was going very well before tiring in the latter stages last year. He finished 6^th in 2009, so again is the sort who relishes the jumping test Aintree provides. For his placed effort last year he has been increased 5lb in the weights, but still appears to be set to race off a very reasonable looking mark of 11-1.

He will be in the optimum age grouping and will be better, fitter and stronger than he’s been for his last two runs. He’s had mixed preparation this season, uncharacteristically falling in the Hennessy, finishing second behind promising chaser Hey Big Spender and, most recently, finishing 4^th in the Ascot Chase. He should go well again, and looks a solid each-way shout.

Other contenders worthy of consideration include the Willie Mullins’ trained THE MIDNIGHT CLUB. The trainer earmarked this horse for the 2011 Grand National way back in late 2009 and knows what it takes to win this, having famously won the race in 2005 with Hedgehunter. The Midnight Club finished a good second in the competitive Theystes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January, and is expected to have one more run before going to Aintree.

Another trainer with a Grand National winning pedigree is Gordon Elliot, and won in 2007 with the 33/1 shot Silver Birch. He trains the somewhat quirky BACKSTAGE, another horse allocated a nice racing weight (10-12). Backstage was going very well during the 2010 running before being brought down by a loose horse, so can be deemed rather unlucky and is surely worth another chance.

Ante Post Grand National Tips:

State of Play 3pts EW 25/1

Big Fella Thanks 2pts EW 20/1

Backstage 1pt EW 20/1

The Midnight Club 1pt EW 16/1

Cheltenham Tips - Day Three

1.30 - Wishful Thinking 2pt Win

2.05 - Charteraux - 2pt Win

2.40 - Poquelin - 3pt Win (NB)

3.20 - Big Bucks 5pt Win (NAP)

4.00 - Aigle D'or 1pt Win & Quartz de Thaix 1pt Win

4.40 - Junior 2pt Win

Cheltenham Tips - Day Two

1.30 Chicago Grey 1pt Win

2.05 Oscars Well 3pt Win NB

2.40 Time For Rupert 2pt Win & Mikael D'haugenet 1pt EW

3.20 Big Zeb 5pt Win NAP

4.00 Agean Dawn 2pt EW & Bothy 1pt EW & Ballyhaunis 1pt EW

4.40 Plan A 2pt EW & Titan De Sarti 1pt EW & Dhaafer 1pt EW

5.15 Knights Pass 2pt Win & Ericht 1pt Win & Raise the Beat 1pt Win

Jack Milner

Time to get out the Big Bucks

Are you ready? Sat comfortable? Be prepared, because finally the greatest show on turf has arrived. For me, and many others like, this is the most exciting time of year, I heard Paddy Power describe it as ‘Christmas for grown ups’, and that is probably the best way of understanding it. We have 27 races spread over four days, and I shall be concentrating on days two and three for highlighting my best chances for the festival.

A horse who I have been following since his Cheltenham win at the 2009 festival is the Willie Mullins trained MIKAEL D’HAUGENET. The seven year old was fantastic two years ago when winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle when going off 5/2 favourite, and beating a very good group of challengers in doing so. Grade 1 winners such as Diamond Harry, China Rock, The Nightingale, Karabak and Realt Dubh. He followed that up with a win at the Punchestown Festival, beating another good field that day including the perennial Irish superstar Cousin Vinny. He has been unlucky since switching to fences after a near two year absence. He fell at the last when seemingly cruising in his reappearance, before running flat when being turned out just two weeks later. He was then badly hampered by the falling Quel Esprit in The JP Moriarty Chase, when going seemingly well, and if he can keep lady luck on his side, he has a great each way chance. Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride him over the Paul Nicholls trained Aiteen Thirtythree.

The absolute banker of day three is the Irish Champion, and current Champion Chaser, the Colm Murphy trained BIG ZEB. He was awesome when winning this race last year, cruising round the course before taking it up before the last fence. He absolutely loves good ground, and thrives on it. His form on good ground is 22111 and his only losses came in twenty plus runner fields, losing to Captain Cee Bee in a bumper and Sizing Europe in a Novice Hurdle. He has had a superb 18 months, being crowned Irish horse of the year, on the back of his Champion Chase win last year, beating the Arkle first and second from the year before Forpaddytheplasterer and Kalahari King, with Master Minded only in fourth. He won four Grade 1 races in a row before being turned over by Golden Silver last year, and even then, his defeat isn’t that much of a negative. The horse was jumping that well, that Barry had difficulty restraining the notorious hold up horse. He has had a perfect preparation, has a great jockey and perfect ground, the horse should be cherry ripe for the day, and his current price of 3/1 is huge.

The final selection is the current best horse in training; the Paul Nicholls trained BIG BUCKS. He has won the last two renewals of the World Hurdle, and was devastating last year, when winning pretty much on the bridle. The horse he beat, Time for Rupert, has come out, winning 2 from 2 impressively over hurdles, and is now favourite for the RSA Chase. Big Bucks is the best horse in the race, he has won his last ten races, 9 of which in graded company, and although Grand Crus has improved beyond recall so far this season, Big Bucks is the benchmark, and will win his third World Hurdle.

Selections:

Big Zeb – Champion Chase 3/1 – 5pt Win

Big Bucks – World Hurdle 5/4 – 5pt Win

Mikael D’haugenet – 12/1 – 2pt EW

Cheltenham Tips - Day One

1.30 - Sprinter Sacre 1pt Win

2.05 - Medermit 3pt Win (NB)

2.40 - Reve de Sivola 1pt ew & Great Endeavour 1pt ew

3.20 - Hurricane Fly 2pt Win & Khyber Kim 1pt ew

4.00 - Garde Champetre 2pt Win & Poker de Sivola 1pt ew

4.40 - Quevega 5pt Win (Nap)

5.15 - Tullamore Dew 1pt ew & Quantitativeeasing 0.5pt ew & Swincombe Rock 0.5pt ew

Champion Hurdle Revamped - Hurricane to Fly High

The Champion Hurdle is the showcase champion race on the opening day of the Festival, and there is one word that seems synonymous with the runners of the race - winners. Lining up are the 2010 Supreme Novices’ winner Menorah and the 2010 Neptune Novices’ winner and the unbeaten Peddlers Cross. Add to the mix Irish Champion Hurdlerr, Hurricane Fly, the Welsh Champion Oscar Whiskey and the Kingwell Hurdle winner Mille Chief and we have some race in prospect..

The reigning champion is the Nicky Henderson trained BINOCULAR, who has been withdrawn in controversial circumstances. The race is poorer for his absence but the up-and-coming brigade are very strong so an exciting, top class race still looks guaranteed.

The Irish have a decent record in the race in recent years, mainly due to the wonder horse Istabraq, who sensationally won three consecutive Champion Hurdles from 1998-2000. Those wins were very popular with the Irish contingent and they could have another potential superstar again in the Willie Mullins trained HURRICANE FLY.

Hurricane Fly won the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown in impressive fashion, cruising up on the bridle before taking the lead in the straight. The race has usually been a good indicator to Cheltenham with horses such as Sizing Europe, Hardy Eustace and the previously mentioned Istabraq all winning en route to Prestbury Park. The Mullins trained horse has won 8 of his last 9 starts, including beating Solwhit by a neck in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle in April last year.

Since that victory he has beaten Solwhit three more times but not much else and the big question mark abut him surrounds the strength of the form. He has also never run around Cheltenham, let alone won, which may be another negative.

Another key player is the winner of last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, Phillip Hobbs’ stable star MENORAH. He has built on his impressive Supreme Novice victory, winning the Greatwood Hurdle carrying top weight then following up by blitzing this year’s Supreme Novice favourite Cue Card and highly touted Paul Nicholls juvenile Silviano Conti by 4 lengths in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham

He has a perfect 3 wins from 3 runs record at Prestbury Park. As impressive as his victories have been on the eye, the form hasn’t really worked out that well in truth. From the International Hurdle, the 17 horses have had 23 runs, with no wins, and only four places. Recent Supreme Novices’ winners have a history of disappointing when returning to the festival the following year, for example Go Native in last years Champion Hurdle, and Captain Cee Bee in the same years Arkle, and, for me, he would be one to avoid.

PEDDLERS CROSS is an interesting runner from the north. The Donald McCain trained 6 year old, has gone from strength to strength, building on his Neptune Novice win at last year’s Festival by going on to win at the Aintree Festival and looking very impressive when beating Binocular in the rescheduled Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newbury. He remains unbeaten.

The Neptune form looks strong, the beaten Finians Rainbow being touted for this years Arkle, and the third Right of Passage going on to win the Ascot Gold Cup. Connections have been very bullish about the gelding’s chances but there is a chance he may be outclassed and may be found wanting for toe.

It usually pays to follow previous winners from the Cheltenham festival year to year, which narrows the field down to the two main contenders.

Hurricane Fly is unproven on the course, there are doubts surrounding the depth of Menorah’s form, and Peddlers Cross is still relatively inexperienced. Menorah should be able to plug on for a place. Khyber Kim can build on his reappearance behind Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle to take yet another place following last year’s great effort in second.

I have a strong feeling that if the current champion Binocular was running, he would win. Conditions were suitable and he is clearly a spring horse who just loves Cheltenham. That said, the show must go on without him and the answer may lie with the Irish raider HURRICANE FLY. He has won 9 Grade 1 races in Ireland, and this will be his first visit to England, to take on the challengers this side of the pond.

Although there are negatives surrounding him never having run at Cheltenham, he has the cruising speed and class that winners of this race usually possess and, with Ruby Walsh on board, he also has the perfect jockey for Cheltenham.

Predictions

1. Hurricane Fly

2. Khyber Kim

3. Menorah