Haydock hold a fantastic National Hunt card on Saturday, with the twilight phase of this sphere still producing quality cards, with BetVictor Day proving to be a treat.
Handy Andy will be a warm favourite in the first, a three and a half mile handicap chase, not for the faint hearted, but he is vulnerable up 10lb for his win over Chartreaux last time out. Monsieur Cadou and Captain Americo are lightly raced sorts that can improve but the form selection looks to be Rhum for the in form team of Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies. The eight year old was back to his best last time out, winning cosily at Wincanton over an extended three miles, and looked better the further he went. He is up only 3lb, despite good form in behind through Big Occasion and Alderluck, and with the stable flying, he looks a confident pick.
The two and a half mile handicap hurdle is a very strong renewal, with a bumper field of twenty runners competing. Veloce could be a player for leading connections if he has his act together, but looks fairly temperamental, as does Landscape of Paul Nicholls. Brian Ellison has five, David O’ Meara has two, but the one stand out entry is Leader of the Gang for AP McCoy and David Pipe, who was a narrowly beaten favourite last time out at Sandown. He is still extremely unexposed, only ever having run in five hurdle races, and his mark of 121 still looks fairly lenient. It’s not flashy given he is likely to be a short price, but he is the clearly well handicapped pick. Any money for a Brian Ellison runner has to be taken very seriously indeed.
The feature race is a class 2 two and a half mile handicap chase, where Pepite Rose of Venetia Williams has been well backed in the week, and the mare should be a leading player if turning up on her best form. Cloudy Too and Shoegazer look harshly treated at the weights, and it could be those at the bottom of the handicap who can take advantage. One such horse could be Triptico for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney, and the unexposed seven year old could prove something of a shock. He was a good second last time out, given not the best ride by claimer Adam Wedge, staying on late, when the bird has seemingly flown. His previous best effort was over the same trip, when routing a field at Chepstow in December, and there have been plenty of winners in behind. He has only had four runs over fences, and is entitled to improve. Brunswick Gold would be another fancy at a price, being too big at around the 14/1 mark.
Another potentially trappy handicap chase in the 3.50, with sixteen runners going over two and three quarter miles, and Ballinroab is expected to make the market for Jonjo O’ Niell and AP McCoy. The form of his last win has worked out well, but a stiff 10lb rise could hinder him, although further improvement would be no surprise. The two top weights make most appeal, both winning last time out over similar trips. Frontier Spirit defied top weight over the same trip at Newbury last week, and only up 5lb, the stable form is something to make note of, and he is fancied. As is Rouge Et Blanc for Oliver Sherwood and talented claimer Thomas Garner, who takes off a valuable 7lb. Wins at Huntingdon have seen him up 23lb in the handicap, and that may scupper his bid of the hatrick.
Another difficult handicap, and although Moscow Presents could be a very unexposed animal for the McCain team, the way Tornado In Milan won last time out after being absolutely smashed up suggests he is extremely well handicapped for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney. His win at Plumpton sees him raised 8lb for a 5 lengths win, he has form tied in with Home Run, Mr Mole and other 130 rated handicappers, and looks absolutely chucked in. The step up in trip should suit on pedigree, and the ground will pose no problems. I’ve followed Big Society off a cliff in recent runs, so him hacking up would really hurt.
14.05 Haydock – Rhum
14.40 Haydock – Leader of the Gang
15.15 Haydock – Triptico
15.50 Haydock – Frontier Spirit
16.25 Haydock – Tornado in Milan (Nap)
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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Friday 29 March 2013
Thursday 14 March 2013
Cheltenam - Thursday: Day 3
The Jewson Novices Chase has generally been a warm race for me, backing Sir Des Champs ante post for a long time last season, and being duly rewarded, in one of the performances of the festival. Dynaste is the warm favourite, but he doesn’t appeal at the prices, he is class but he could be found out here. I like two against the field, Captain Conan and Aupcharlie, both of whom have got strong Grade 1 form this year in novice chases over different trips. Captain Conan is unbeaten in three starts, winning two Grade 1’s, and is much better than seen last time out at Sandown. I backed him for a long time ante post for The Arkle, but the stable are adamant he will stay, and he is respected. Nicky Henderson’s head lad thinks the world of him. The change in trip will also suit Aupcharlie, who has not been finishing his race over three miles, chinned on his last two starts by Back in Focus and Tofino Bay, both of whom franking the form in The National Hunt Chase. Given how the Mullins horses are performing, both look like each way plays against the favourite.
Try and get on The Pertemps with firms paying five places, Boylesports, BetVictor, Stan James and SportingBet. The two immediate stand outs are Top of The Range and Close House. Top of the Range stayed on well last time out to win at Sandown on Friday and runs under a 5lb penalty, potentially unexposed. He shaped like a stayer that day, and will have a lot more to offer, potentially much better than a 136 rated hurdler. Similar claims can be made about Close House, who went into a lot of notebooks when a running on fourth in The Neptune behind Simonsig last year. He has run two solid efforts in handicaps this season, winning well at Wincanton last time out, and the fact he hasn’t run shows that Pond House is happy with his mark. Big player and unexposed. Captain Sunshine and Bakbenscher are potential outsiders, whilst I couldn’t have Sam Winner and Shutthefrontdoor at the top of the market.
The Ryanair looks a muddling race, and First Lieutenant is a worthy favourite, and should appreciate the ground and the trip for Gigginstown and Mouse Morris, dodging the Gold Cup, paving the way for Sir Des Champs. He looks too short for me, as does Cue Card, who will not get his favoured uncontested lead, which should pave the way open for Champion Court, who looks an unbelievable each way bet with eight runners. He ran a blinder in The King George, and in The Jewson last year, he has his best form at the track, and his runs behind Williams Wishes and Silviniaco Conti at Ascot and Aintree have worked out well. Jason Maguire will get a tune out of him, deputising for the unfortunate Alain Cawley.
The World Hurdle looks wide open, and with ante post vouchers spent on Monksland, and no Big Bucks, I am looking at it from a fresh perspective. Without sounding too obvious, you need a horse that stays, and the only out and out stayer in the field is Reve De Sivola. He beat Oscar Whisky last time out in The Cleeve and won The Long Walk Hurdle in equally impressive fashion. He like Champion Court, is sure to be in the frame.
The Byrne Group Plate has hotpot favourite Ballynagour for the same owner, trainer and jockey who landed a punt here last year, but he looks far too short for such a competitive handicap. Cantlow and Hunt Ball are sure to be popular, but at the prices the two stand outs are Divers and Vino Griego. Vino Griego has been transformed since adopting patient tactics, hacking up at Cheltenham and Ascot, and although up 20lb, is in good heart and should run well. Divers has got excellent course form, and will love the good ground. Ferdy Murphy has an excellent record in Cheltenham handicaps.
The Kim Muir generally goes to harden stayers and it is understandable that Super Duty is a well fancied favourite. David Pipe has a good record in the race, and he has two that I like in Problema Tic and No Secrets. Problema Tic was never put into the race that Ballynagour won last time out, and the 2lb reduction in the handicap will help, he will like the ground and the trip. No Secrets has been rejuvenated since going to David Pipe, only 4lb higher than switching, despite two facile wins at Wetherby and Taunton. He hasn’t beaten much but has a smart attitude and the booking of Katie Walsh looks a good sign, and he looks very unexposed for new connections.
1.30 Captain Conan & Aupcharlie
2.05 Top of The Range and Close House
2.40 Champion Court
3.20 Reve De Sivola
4.00 Vino Griego & Divers
4.40 No Secrets & Vino Griego
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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Try and get on The Pertemps with firms paying five places, Boylesports, BetVictor, Stan James and SportingBet. The two immediate stand outs are Top of The Range and Close House. Top of the Range stayed on well last time out to win at Sandown on Friday and runs under a 5lb penalty, potentially unexposed. He shaped like a stayer that day, and will have a lot more to offer, potentially much better than a 136 rated hurdler. Similar claims can be made about Close House, who went into a lot of notebooks when a running on fourth in The Neptune behind Simonsig last year. He has run two solid efforts in handicaps this season, winning well at Wincanton last time out, and the fact he hasn’t run shows that Pond House is happy with his mark. Big player and unexposed. Captain Sunshine and Bakbenscher are potential outsiders, whilst I couldn’t have Sam Winner and Shutthefrontdoor at the top of the market.
The Ryanair looks a muddling race, and First Lieutenant is a worthy favourite, and should appreciate the ground and the trip for Gigginstown and Mouse Morris, dodging the Gold Cup, paving the way for Sir Des Champs. He looks too short for me, as does Cue Card, who will not get his favoured uncontested lead, which should pave the way open for Champion Court, who looks an unbelievable each way bet with eight runners. He ran a blinder in The King George, and in The Jewson last year, he has his best form at the track, and his runs behind Williams Wishes and Silviniaco Conti at Ascot and Aintree have worked out well. Jason Maguire will get a tune out of him, deputising for the unfortunate Alain Cawley.
The World Hurdle looks wide open, and with ante post vouchers spent on Monksland, and no Big Bucks, I am looking at it from a fresh perspective. Without sounding too obvious, you need a horse that stays, and the only out and out stayer in the field is Reve De Sivola. He beat Oscar Whisky last time out in The Cleeve and won The Long Walk Hurdle in equally impressive fashion. He like Champion Court, is sure to be in the frame.
The Byrne Group Plate has hotpot favourite Ballynagour for the same owner, trainer and jockey who landed a punt here last year, but he looks far too short for such a competitive handicap. Cantlow and Hunt Ball are sure to be popular, but at the prices the two stand outs are Divers and Vino Griego. Vino Griego has been transformed since adopting patient tactics, hacking up at Cheltenham and Ascot, and although up 20lb, is in good heart and should run well. Divers has got excellent course form, and will love the good ground. Ferdy Murphy has an excellent record in Cheltenham handicaps.
The Kim Muir generally goes to harden stayers and it is understandable that Super Duty is a well fancied favourite. David Pipe has a good record in the race, and he has two that I like in Problema Tic and No Secrets. Problema Tic was never put into the race that Ballynagour won last time out, and the 2lb reduction in the handicap will help, he will like the ground and the trip. No Secrets has been rejuvenated since going to David Pipe, only 4lb higher than switching, despite two facile wins at Wetherby and Taunton. He hasn’t beaten much but has a smart attitude and the booking of Katie Walsh looks a good sign, and he looks very unexposed for new connections.
1.30 Captain Conan & Aupcharlie
2.05 Top of The Range and Close House
2.40 Champion Court
3.20 Reve De Sivola
4.00 Vino Griego & Divers
4.40 No Secrets & Vino Griego
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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Tuesday 12 March 2013
Cheltenham - Wednesday: Day Two
The National Hunt Chase is a race that has a great record for novice chasers, and the two classiest in the field look to be Back in Focus and Godsmejudge, with preference for the latter at the price. He outstayed the dogged Keppols Hill last time out in a decent novice chase over three and a half miles, prior to a game second in The Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick. Nico De Boinville is on board, and he rides out Sprinter Sacre at home, and has looked polished since starting to ride under rules. He looks to have everything in his favour.
Ponte Alexandre has every man and his dog on him it would seem, with Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins backers green with envy after their spectacular treble on day one, and instead the value could lay with the ever consistent The New One for Sam and Nigel Twiston-Davies. A previous course and distance winner, who was just out-stayed last time out, he has good course form on his back, and will appreciate the drying out ground, which should suit his trademark turn of foot.
Boston Bob was always going to be a chaser, and the way he battled to win the JP Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown, over an inadequate trip, shows how much this horse loves a battle, a profile that should suit him down to the ground in The RSA. He was second to Birindisi Breeze in The Albert Bartlett, which is usually a race that has pointers, with the likes of Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty building on their novice hurdling careers.
Sprinter Sacre will win The Champion Chase, just watch and admire.
The Coral Cup is a trappy little affair, and instead of looking at the head of the market, I will likely back a few outsiders each way, with some firms offering five places. Barbatos would be one, who looked badly in need of the run last time out, travelling well before fading. He is potentially well handicapped however, and is a course and distance winner. Ericht won a jumpers bumpers and then a novice hurdle in very smart fashion when hacking up at Kempton, which has worked out rather well. Young claimer Gary Derwin takes off 10lb, and he could be a lively outsider, as could Orsippus, who was second in the race a couple of years ago, and looks well handicapped to build on a run last time out that seemed to get rid of a fair bit of rust.
The Fred Winter looks just as messy, but the few stand outs look to come down to Megalypos, Counsel and Fatcatinthehat. Megalypos was hampered in The Future Champions Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, but was running well before, and a 7lb rise looks reasonable to build on. Counsel ran in a hot contest at Doncaster with Kashmir Peak, Vasco Du Roncercay and Sametegal, and built on that when hacking up on his next run, he could be well handicapped. Similarly Fatcatinthehat a very well bred son of Authorized has always been held in high regard, and finally got off the mark at the third attempt. He should have more to come.
Golantilla was something of a hype horse on debut, but duly bolted up at Cork, and after being an expensive purchase, has gone to Tony Martin, looks to have a bright future.
1.30 Godsmejudge
2.05 The New One
2.40 Boston Bob (Nap)
3.20 Sprinter Sacre
4.00 Barbatos, Ericht, Orsippus
4.40 Megalypos, Fatcatinthehat, Counsel
5.15 Golantilla
Ponte Alexandre has every man and his dog on him it would seem, with Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins backers green with envy after their spectacular treble on day one, and instead the value could lay with the ever consistent The New One for Sam and Nigel Twiston-Davies. A previous course and distance winner, who was just out-stayed last time out, he has good course form on his back, and will appreciate the drying out ground, which should suit his trademark turn of foot.
Boston Bob was always going to be a chaser, and the way he battled to win the JP Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown, over an inadequate trip, shows how much this horse loves a battle, a profile that should suit him down to the ground in The RSA. He was second to Birindisi Breeze in The Albert Bartlett, which is usually a race that has pointers, with the likes of Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty building on their novice hurdling careers.
Sprinter Sacre will win The Champion Chase, just watch and admire.
The Coral Cup is a trappy little affair, and instead of looking at the head of the market, I will likely back a few outsiders each way, with some firms offering five places. Barbatos would be one, who looked badly in need of the run last time out, travelling well before fading. He is potentially well handicapped however, and is a course and distance winner. Ericht won a jumpers bumpers and then a novice hurdle in very smart fashion when hacking up at Kempton, which has worked out rather well. Young claimer Gary Derwin takes off 10lb, and he could be a lively outsider, as could Orsippus, who was second in the race a couple of years ago, and looks well handicapped to build on a run last time out that seemed to get rid of a fair bit of rust.
The Fred Winter looks just as messy, but the few stand outs look to come down to Megalypos, Counsel and Fatcatinthehat. Megalypos was hampered in The Future Champions Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, but was running well before, and a 7lb rise looks reasonable to build on. Counsel ran in a hot contest at Doncaster with Kashmir Peak, Vasco Du Roncercay and Sametegal, and built on that when hacking up on his next run, he could be well handicapped. Similarly Fatcatinthehat a very well bred son of Authorized has always been held in high regard, and finally got off the mark at the third attempt. He should have more to come.
Golantilla was something of a hype horse on debut, but duly bolted up at Cork, and after being an expensive purchase, has gone to Tony Martin, looks to have a bright future.
1.30 Godsmejudge
2.05 The New One
2.40 Boston Bob (Nap)
3.20 Sprinter Sacre
4.00 Barbatos, Ericht, Orsippus
4.40 Megalypos, Fatcatinthehat, Counsel
5.15 Golantilla
Cheltenham - Tuesday; Day One
The first off kicks off with a bang, and with The Supreme Novices Hurdle, and for punters, they have never had it so good. Every bookmaker is engaged in a price war, and as such ante post favourite My Tent or Yours has been pushed out to almost double the price from a week ago, being 6/4 after winning The Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. BetVictor are offering ‘Losses up to £50 refunded’, so the play here looks to be to back the jolly with them, knowing it is a no lose situation. He looks all class, and should be set up by the fast pace. Puffin Billy and Un Atout look the main dangers, but will have grander targets, looking like very good prospective staying chaser.
Speaking of ante post, my money has been done on Colour Squadron who runs later, and Captain Conan who runs Thursday, and so this race is now fascinating from a tactical point of view, with Simonsig and Overturn taking on each other in The Arkle. The soft ground should suit the former, and Overturn will attempt to make all, with Barry Geraghty sat in Jason Maguire’s slipstream. Simonsig should win, but it is more of a watching proposition at the prices.
The JLT Handicap Chase looks to be a top notch renewal, with many of the line up being horses that I’ve had on my radar for a while now. Quantitativeeasing, The Package, Fruity ‘O Rooney and Loch Ba make the shortlist and that is where the preening comes in. Quantitaveeasing was my fancy last year, but looks to have had the ground go against it. The value has been squeezed out of Fruity ‘O Rooney, but his front running style would make him an ideal back to lay off an unaltered mark. The Package is tongue tied for the first time, and was fourth last year, but his best form comes when fresh, and with a 7lb higher mark, he could be vulnerable. LOCH BA looks to have most in his favour, and has been transformed since joining Mick Channon, leaving Venetia Williams. He trounced a smart field at Newbury last time out, with some smart form since, and although 29lb higher since the switch, he looks to have plenty more to offer.
The Champion Hurdle is a race I have been waiting for GRANDOUET to run in for 18 months, since I started backing him for Cheltenham glory. He missed out last year through injury, and my ante post vouchers were nearly in tatters once again, when he missed his prep through a knock. He has turned up thankfully, and although there are doubts about his fitness, and his taking to the ground, he is still the apple of my eye, and I can’t desert him now. Rock on Ruby should be good for a place, setting good fractions from the front, and Hurricane Fly will have conditions to suit, but he has still to bring his Irish form over to Prestbury Park.
The Cross Country isn’t a race I am likely to get too involved with, but the two stand outs are Arabella Boy and Uncle Junior, who looks head and shoulders apart from the field, and are the only ones with a touch of class.
Quevega should win The Mares Hurdle, but she will have her stiffest test yet with Une Artiste and Swing Bowler to fend off.
The Druids Nephew has had his price blitzed by Hugh Taylor (Thanks Hugh!), but he still has the best form around in novice chases this season, and has a relatively low mark of 135. He was unlucky to lose to Hadrians Approach at Ascot, chinned late on, and beat Paul Nicholls’s subsequent 142 rated winner Grandioso comfortably by ten lengths, and all his form looks solid. Colour Squadron and Vulcanite have been plotted by JP, but would be wary of tucking in. Shangani would be the main danger, and course specialist Carlito Brigante, if the ground were to dry out.
1.30 My Tent or Yours
2.40 Loch Ba
3.20 Grandouet
5.15 The Druids Nephew
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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Speaking of ante post, my money has been done on Colour Squadron who runs later, and Captain Conan who runs Thursday, and so this race is now fascinating from a tactical point of view, with Simonsig and Overturn taking on each other in The Arkle. The soft ground should suit the former, and Overturn will attempt to make all, with Barry Geraghty sat in Jason Maguire’s slipstream. Simonsig should win, but it is more of a watching proposition at the prices.
The JLT Handicap Chase looks to be a top notch renewal, with many of the line up being horses that I’ve had on my radar for a while now. Quantitativeeasing, The Package, Fruity ‘O Rooney and Loch Ba make the shortlist and that is where the preening comes in. Quantitaveeasing was my fancy last year, but looks to have had the ground go against it. The value has been squeezed out of Fruity ‘O Rooney, but his front running style would make him an ideal back to lay off an unaltered mark. The Package is tongue tied for the first time, and was fourth last year, but his best form comes when fresh, and with a 7lb higher mark, he could be vulnerable. LOCH BA looks to have most in his favour, and has been transformed since joining Mick Channon, leaving Venetia Williams. He trounced a smart field at Newbury last time out, with some smart form since, and although 29lb higher since the switch, he looks to have plenty more to offer.
The Champion Hurdle is a race I have been waiting for GRANDOUET to run in for 18 months, since I started backing him for Cheltenham glory. He missed out last year through injury, and my ante post vouchers were nearly in tatters once again, when he missed his prep through a knock. He has turned up thankfully, and although there are doubts about his fitness, and his taking to the ground, he is still the apple of my eye, and I can’t desert him now. Rock on Ruby should be good for a place, setting good fractions from the front, and Hurricane Fly will have conditions to suit, but he has still to bring his Irish form over to Prestbury Park.
The Cross Country isn’t a race I am likely to get too involved with, but the two stand outs are Arabella Boy and Uncle Junior, who looks head and shoulders apart from the field, and are the only ones with a touch of class.
Quevega should win The Mares Hurdle, but she will have her stiffest test yet with Une Artiste and Swing Bowler to fend off.
The Druids Nephew has had his price blitzed by Hugh Taylor (Thanks Hugh!), but he still has the best form around in novice chases this season, and has a relatively low mark of 135. He was unlucky to lose to Hadrians Approach at Ascot, chinned late on, and beat Paul Nicholls’s subsequent 142 rated winner Grandioso comfortably by ten lengths, and all his form looks solid. Colour Squadron and Vulcanite have been plotted by JP, but would be wary of tucking in. Shangani would be the main danger, and course specialist Carlito Brigante, if the ground were to dry out.
1.30 My Tent or Yours
2.40 Loch Ba
3.20 Grandouet
5.15 The Druids Nephew
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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Monday 4 March 2013
Monday Racing at Ffos Las and Southwell
Trevor Hemmings has two useful bumper prospects on show today at Ffos Las and Southwell, the first being Western Jo at Ffos Las for Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. He was unfortunate to run behind a very smart David Pipe animal, who has since gone on to frank the form, and displayed enough promise to show there is more to come. Fling Me has the same profile, and goes for Oliver Sherwood and decent apprentice Thomas Garner taking off a useful seven pounds. A well-bred six year old, he is related to multiple winners, and third on debut behind two smart horses from David Pipe and Rebecca Curtis, both of whom have come out and won their next two starts.
Lava Lamp took advantage of a ever free-falling mark last time at Ffos Las and aims to take advantage just eight days later of his rating, under a seven pound penalty. Useful Conor Ring will once again use his ten pound claim, and he looks to be able to make full use of conditions in his favour.
As does Pass Muster who looks to have been given a very lenient opening mark for a shrewd and in form stable at Phil Kirby’s yard. Rated 79 on the flat, he has been tried at longer trips on heavy going, but is down to the minimum trip on good ground at Southwell, and is sure to have further improvement than his mark suggests. Unfortunately Hugh Taylor has tipped him up and a lot of juice has gone from the price, but he still could be worth a punt at around the 4/1 mark.
4.00 Lava Lamp
4.50 Pass Muster
5.20 Fling Me (Nap)
5.40 Western Jo
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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Lava Lamp took advantage of a ever free-falling mark last time at Ffos Las and aims to take advantage just eight days later of his rating, under a seven pound penalty. Useful Conor Ring will once again use his ten pound claim, and he looks to be able to make full use of conditions in his favour.
As does Pass Muster who looks to have been given a very lenient opening mark for a shrewd and in form stable at Phil Kirby’s yard. Rated 79 on the flat, he has been tried at longer trips on heavy going, but is down to the minimum trip on good ground at Southwell, and is sure to have further improvement than his mark suggests. Unfortunately Hugh Taylor has tipped him up and a lot of juice has gone from the price, but he still could be worth a punt at around the 4/1 mark.
4.00 Lava Lamp
4.50 Pass Muster
5.20 Fling Me (Nap)
5.40 Western Jo
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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