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The Deutsche Bank at TPC Boston is the second of four Fedex Cup playoffs, and just like The Barclays; the big boys are out in force. The crème de la crème are out in rural Massachusetts, with Woods, McIlroy, Mickleson, Donald and Westwood being the big five out to take the overall $10 million FedEx cup, and a win would cement any of them towards the top of the standings. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy share joint favouritism, but neither have any sort of value at around the 10/1 mark, although out of the two, Woods would be the preferred option, the course having a history of favouring the big hitters. That would bring in to play the hardest ball strikers with Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson. Both are reasonably priced at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively, and given the course is a Par 72; four Par 5’s, and a drivable Par 4 , they are going to be a constant threat, with plenty of scoring chances.
When compiling an original shortlist, I used statistics involving previous course form, tournament form, records this season including green in regulation, strokes gained per round and putting. That gave me a shortlist of twenty five runners. Some of those who crept on the list are the following.
Starting with a man who ticked every box; Luke Donald. The man is a model of consistency, and it would be no surprise to see him lift the trophy. He finished tied third here last year, and quietly crept into tied tenth place last week. He is solid as you like on both the before mentioned stats, and is ‘Mr Reliable’. People who are in similar moulds to him with regards to style, consistency and overall game are Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson, who are all reasonably priced at 45/1, 50/1 and 60/1 respectively. All have solid short games, and are strong tee to green. Whether they have the ability to win a tournament of this depth is questionable, but they are all proven thoroughbreds on The PGA Tour and warrant respect, possibly overpriced due toe the strength at the head of the market.
Phil Mickleson is always a threat, given he can seemingly turn it on like a tap; much is his maverick make up. He and Steve Stricker are the two dark horses, who are yet to hit form this season, and if showed glimpses, could be fancied for next week at The BMW Championship, but neither is in the greatest nick thus far. The flip side of that, and the form guys are the moment, are Nick Watney who won last week, Brandt Snedeker, who was second, and consistent all week, and to a lesser extent Keegan Bradley, twice a winner on tour this season and Bo Van Pelt, who was seventh last week, and had a stronger final three rounds than anyone else last week.
At the prohibitively bigger odds, the two stand outs would be Ryan Palmer and Robert Garrigus, both of whom can be backed at 100/1. Palmer ticks a lot of the criteria mentioned at the start. Palmer’s form was extremely consistent coming into the summer, and his form reads 4-MC-9-5-3-15-MC-19-MC-24. If he starts well, he is usually there or thereabouts, and will likely outperform his odds due to his unflashy nature.
A strong field and unfortunately no bookmakers have decided to dangle the carrot of six places in our way, but there is plenty of each way value around for the shrewdies amongst us.
Luke Donald is the obvious to start with, and his record this year is exemplary, it really does stagger, how he can play at such a high level so often and so consistently. He has played 14 events on the PGA Tour this season, missing only one cut, and has 7 top 10 finishes. He is in the top 10 one in every two tournaments played, that stat alone is incredible. He showed glimpses of his best last week, and is sure to go close. Hopefully he creeps under the radar amongst the big hitters, and we get an even bigger price for him.
Speaking of big hitters, this course should make Bubba Watson purr like someone being tickled in all the right places, and much like Donald, crept into contention late on to finish T10 last week. He could be hitting form at the right time, and is yet to finish worse than T23 in his last five tournaments, and on a course like this, which will suit him no end, he has to be respected.
Brandt Snedeker has been in red hot form lately, a solid top 25 followed by finishing a solid second last week, despite a slow start, He is in rattling form, and his putting could compensate for not having the distance on the tee. The top putter on tour, who has been solid all year, and ranked second in FedEx Cup points. He has only missed one cut all year, in The USPGA, and that aside, he is another one of the field’s consistent yard-sticks.
Zach Johnson caught my eye when compiling the stats and shortlist, as he hit more of the criteria than most, yet is priced way down the list at 60/1. He is not a 60/1 shot. Six times in the top ten so far this season and two wins to his name, going low to win both The Crowne Plaza and The John Deere Classic. Given his season thus far, his scoring average and driving accuracy are both in the Top 25 on tour, and currently the sixth best player ranked on tour, statistically speaking. His second round scuppered his chances last week, but still grafted out a T38 finish.
Luke Donald 1.5pt Ew @ 16/1 (Across)
Bubba Watson 1.5pt Ew @ 25/1 (Across)
Brandt Snedeker 1pt Ew @ 25/1 (Across)
Zach Johnson 0.5pt Ew @ 60/1 (Across)
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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