Current Ante Post Shortlist/Portfolio 17/9/12

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Current Ante Post Shortlist

Hawkeyethenoo 16/1 & Pintura 16/1 (Ayr Gold Cup)
Kirthill 25/1 & Mull of Killough 25/1 (Cambridgeshire)
Orfevre 8/1 & Snow Fairy 8/1 (Arc)
Countrywide Flame 10/1 & Olympiad 10/1 (Cesarewitch)
Finians Rainbow 8/1 & Grand Crus 6/1 (King George)
Fingal Bay 10/1 & Boston Bob 10/1 (RSA)
Grandouet - 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Sir Des Champs 6/1 & Bobs Worth 8/1 (Gold Cup)
Big Bucks Evens (World Hurdle)
Sprinter Sacre Evens (Champion Chase)
Colour Squadron 20/1 & Captain Conan 14/1 (Arkle)
Dawn Approach 4/1 (2000 Guineas)
Big Break 25/1 (1000 Guineas)

Looking at the market for the Ayr Gold Cup, Doc Hay immediately jumps off the page, tipped up by Timeform to keep an eye on a couple of weeks ago, before getting up late to win The Portland Handicap at Doncaster. With that win, he could be well in providing he runs. Pintura could be worth another look if he gets in, and looks to have trickled down the weights for a respected yard and shrewd owner, who will no doubt want a runner or eight. My main fancy is the ante post favourite in HAWKEYETHENOO for local trainer Jim Goldie, fresh from his Stewards Cup heroics. He will no doubt have had this in mind for a while, and as long as the ground comes up good, he will be a big threat, with Graham Lee on his back, who has been exceptional since switching to the flat.

The two big Newmarket handicaps are very open affairs on the bare face of things, aren’t they? Maybe not. COUNTRYWIDE FLAME won impressively from start to finish at Chester in a decent looking handicap, and the winner came from the same race last year. He should come on a lot for that run, and looks to be very well handicapped on his Triumph Hurdle form, he is respected. As is the classy looking Olympiad, who won a two mile handicap on good ground at York. The exceptionally well bred colt for Sir Robert Ogden should be a group horse on pedigree and looks to have been very well treated at the weights, he looks a cup horse and possible Melbourne Cup horse for The Master of Rosewell, and if he turns up, would warrant maximum respect. These two set the standard in this year’s Cesarewitch, and in the Cambridgeshire, there are three on my current shortlist. I am really sweet on KIRTHILL and the manner of his win last time out at York. He put his bad run at Goodwood behind him, and although burdened with a hefty weight with Danadana now ruled out, this will have full attention of the Cumani stable, and that man Fallon. The other two I like at bigger prices around the 33/1 mark are Navajo Chief and Mull of Killough. Both have flirted with the idea of pattern level but are tough hardened handicappers, and with strong form in these big fields. Both have course form to their name, and look to have had the race as their short term targets.

Simonsig has been trimmed as looks like he may not go down the Arkle route, possible being affected by the unfortunate and heart-breaking news surrounding Spirit Son. As such I have backed Colour Squadron and Captain Conan, one a Hobbs horse bought by JP and another a Henderson horse, both were said to have been chasers, not really expected much over hurdles, and when sent chasing could and should improve.. The two both fought out the Tolworth Hurdle, before disappointing later on in the season. Colour Squadron fell when looking like beating Montbazon in a hot novice hurdle, and finished second in the Grade 1 Champion Juvenile Hurdle at Punchestown. Nicky Henderson was in two minds about putting Captain Conan away for the season, but he ran a good second behind Supreme second Darlan at Aintree, and the French bred is a winner over the sticks at Auteuil, and should thrive jumping the larger obstacles. Much like Fingal Bay and Boston Bob, big, scopey sorts, who could be anything. Fingal Bay should have won the The Sefton at Aintree, and given the size and presence of the animal, he should be an absolute beast over fences. His form with Simonsig, and similarly other juveniles should put him right up there amongst the seasons top novice chasers. As should Boston Bob for Willie Mullins, looks another terrific prospect for owner Howard Johnson. Second in the Albert Bartlett, when the stable weren’t really firing, he looks to be a readymade chaser and all class, I expect at this stage, one of the two to progress and win The RSA Chase at Cheltenham.

The Gold Cup market is headed by two horses at backed ante post at the previous festival, and as we know, course form around Prestbury Park, is a golden ticket to the chocolate factory. Bobs Worth was a worthy winner of a pretty good RSA Chase, beating solid 160+ horses in First Lieutenant and Grands Crus, in a very smart manner. He is a course specialist, and Nicky Henderson will no doubt be aiming him for the big day, on the race he won with Long Run in 2010. The other winner who steps up to the top grade is SIR DES CHAMPS, an outrageously impressive winner of the Jewson Novice Chase over two and a half miles. He won doing handstands, and proved the trip wasn’t a problem, when winning a Grade 1 novice chase at Punchestown, on desperate ground. He is unbeaten, and is another Cheltenham specialist, 2 from 2, winning the Martin Pipe handicap hurdle in 2011.

I won’t talk about Grandouet too much, because he is my best bet of the festival for next year. At 12/1 – he was nothing short of impressive last year. He should have beaten Zarkander at Aintree in 2011 before being brought down, and the manner of his International Hurdle win confirmed his promise and potential for me. He is classy, unexposed, and will be fresh from an extended break missing the festival last year.

The two bankers who are even money and it are a bit of a difficult one to throw in are Big Bucks and Sprinter Sacre. They aren’t puntable prices as of yet, as is backing any even money shot so far away from the day itself. Rather than backing Frankel ante post at evens, I was much more comfortable backing him after final declarations were announced two days before the race itself at around 4/7, and although they both look bombproof in weak markets,

The two most immediate ones are Finians Rainbow and Grand Crus for The King George, can’t really put in multiples for some reason as cross-contingency or something similar. Long Run won The King George after The Feltham, and Grand Crus’s time was quicker last year than Kauto’s. He looks to be a flat track animal, and Finians Rainbow looked like the step in trip suited when winning over two and a half miles around Aintree.

BIG BREAK, a full sister to Famous Name, hacked up in a good Leopardstown maiden last week; Weld said he thinks she could be a Guineas filly. I asked Paddy Power for a price before she won her maiden, and they offered 50s, and then put her in the market at 33s, and the reply I got was basically ‘didn’t see shit’. Schmucks. Then wins and 25s. Disgusting, but they know the game, and once DK Weld says she’s a nice filly, the people spoke, poured in, poured a glass, and put her away Dermot my boy, we’ll have some of that. The males version is dominated and headed by the unbeaten, the unmatched and unparalleled Dawn Approach for Jim Bolger and Sheikh Mohamed, who should learn from the mistakes of Dubai Prince and Casamento and leave the colt in France. This gorgeous colt resembles his old man so much, chestnut with a white face, he really is a cracker. Expected to do a Camelot, and win Racing Post Trophy, 2000 Guineas and Derby. Get on early… providing he stays with Mr Bolger and chooses to enjoy the scenery of County Kilkenny.


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


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