BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
Just doing a brief bit of research on the BMW Italia Open with no PGA Tour, means The European Tour is solely flying the flag for our weekly punting disappointments in the world of JJMSports.
I peeled off a few stats based on what I believe to be crucial around the course, and then added in previous course form, current tour form as well as how good a price the player was. I won’t bore you with the grim details, but it’s all in a ridiculously messy Excel spreadsheet, all would make no sense if someone read this without any previous knowledge, alien to Joe Publc.
Anyhoo, the two that were standouts were Nicolas Colsaerts and Thorbjorn Olesen, but both are far too short for my liking, around the 10/1 and 18/1 mark. Will Colsaerts win this tournament one in every eleven? Unlikely, the European Tour is a minefield, where anyone can come out the pack and nick it. Similarly with Olesen, I’m not convinced he wins three/four if he plays this every week for a year.
The one’s at the shorter end of the spectrum are JOOST LUITEN and THOMAS AIKEN, both of whom come out well in terms of overall consistency, but both are liable to throw in the odd low round, and that could set them up. Joost Luiten has been knocking on the door for a while now, and I just have a feeling that if he starts strong, he could go deep. He is still only 26, and still learning. He missed the cut last week, but before that finished T21 in the USPGA Championship, and a solid T27 in the Omega Masters, throwing his chance away with a final round 73. The extra few days rest could have made him that bit fresher.
Thomas Aiken has shown glimpses, most notably a seventh in The Open, where he should have finished better, but for flagging in the final round with a 72. Still, a respectable effort, in a strong field. He missed the cut at The USPGA and The Omega Masters. He came back to form last week, recovering from an opening round average 71, with a solid 66 in Round 4, finishing T26 on -4. If he carries on in a similar manner he could be coming good, and will have his confidence restored by the way he finished off his round. He looks a decent price.
The remaining three are more hopefuls, and are outsiders are very speculative prices, but in the words of my hero Derrick Trotter, he who dares; win. Actually, no need to be greedy, they don’t have to win; a place will do me beautifully.
Firstly, ALASTAIR FORSYTH is a HUGE price at top price of 200/1 given his stats and performance on tour. He doesn’t hit the ball far, but his iron play is really something else, and although getting on a bit, he ranks 29th on tour in terms of driving accuracy and 65th on tour in greens in regulation. He has previous course form, and is something of a dark horse, who finished T15 at The Scottish Open in Aberdeen. If it clicks, he could be good value for a place.
IGNACIO GARRIDO fits a similar mould, and was T11 in the same Scottish Open. He missed the cut at The KLM Open, but he has had two Top 10’s this season, and is a ma-husive price. The final trio of the longshot kids is GREGORY HAVRET, and is someone I have backed a fair few times without any such luck thus far. Another with strong stats for his driving accuracy and greens in regulation, providing he can make peace with his putter he has a chance of shooting low. In the money 13 out of 21 events so far this term, but only one Top 10. If you look through his records, he usually comes good towards the back end of the season, hopefully so this week.
J Luiten 45/1 (Coral) – 1pt Ew
T Aiken 55/1 (Sportingbet) –0.75pts EW
G Havret 150/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Coral) – 0.5pts EW
I Garrido 200/1 (SkyBet) – 0.25pts EW
A Forsyth 200/1 (SkyBet, Betfred, Blue Square) – 0.5pts EW
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
No comments:
Post a Comment