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There looks to be some value around today, and given the unpredictable nature of the racing, especially on the polytrack at Southwell, there are some longshots I fancy that appear to be quite overpriced.
The first and biggest priced runner today is KIERONS ROCK, a three year old gelding out of superstar miler Rock of Gibraltar. Yet to show significant progression, he is down to a career low mark of 48, and tried on the artificial surface for the first time. He led and weakened last time out over a mile, and finished sixth of thirteen. The step down to seven furlongs should suit, and the Jedd O’ Keefe yard are shrewd operators, they have had three runners in the last week, running well, with form of 2-3-1.
SCARBROUGH LILY was badly hampered last time out and lost an iron, so put a line through that run, and give her another chance. The Dansili filly was having her only second run for 200 days, and is come on for race fitness. Willy Twiston-Davies takes off an invaluable 7lb for the Ed Vaughan stable, who have had two winners from their last three runners. I like the stable, and will give Willy another chance, although he should have won for us on Friday on Martial Law, time to make amends lad!
NABURN ran an eye-catching debut last year in a bumper on horrible ground, and the well bred son of Cape Cross has slowly been to the burn this season for Graham Swinback, and after running over insufficient trips, is stepped up from a mile to a mile and a half. Although a stiff mark of 65, Gary Whilans is a good claimer and takes off a useful 5lb, and although he has finished second in his last three rides, has a good record for the trainer.
DARK FALCON returns to the same course and distance of his only ever success, his maiden success here last December, and it is hoped the Dark Angel gelding can rediscover his winning touch. He has never really looked comfortable on turf, highlighted when second last in a thirteen runner handicap last month at Leicester. The form of that has worked out quite decent, the second, third, fourth and seventh all winning since, and back on the artificial surface, I reckon will see him run well.
Advised: Each Way Lucky 15
2.10 Southwell – Dark Falcon
2.40 Southwell – Naburn
4.20 Southwell – Scarborough Lily
4.55 Southwell – Kieron’s Rock
MONSIEUR PONTAVEN is down to a mark of 47, a figure where he last won at the same track two years ago and now has blinkers re-fitted; the Robin Bastiman yard will be hoping it is a case of déjà vue. Dropped down to a more appropriate trip, the five year old’s two wins have come over six and seven furlongs, so it is curious that his last two runs have come over ten. He faded both runs, and the step down to a mile is a positive step. Phillip Makin takes the ride.
MR CHOCOLATE DROP is mainly seen as an all weather specialist, but after a win and a fifth under a penalty at Wolverhampton, he runs with an 8lb lower mark than his last appearance under Phillip Makin at Ayr. Dropped back to a mile and drying ground are sure to aid this old boy, but he looks very overpriced on his revised mark, and both his turf wins have come over a mile on good ground, here’s hoping this is his third.
HEADSTIGHT wasn’t overly tried when running last time out at Beverley in a sixteen runner sprint handicap, and duly finished second last. On that bare form he doesn’t warrant much appeal, but given that was his first run for 267, he won’t have been fully wound up. Similar happened last year when running much better on his second run of the season, finishing third but only losing by a neck. The filly’s best form has come on firm ground, and with the drying ground in her favour, she may be slightly overpriced.
I tipped up SAXONETTE last time out over course and distance and the Piccolo filly ran a very game front running performance to finish second at the big price of 25/1. The ground was quite soft that day and her best form is on stronger ground. The winner that day won easy, and was unfortunate to lose by a short head when running again the week after under a penalty. I think there is still improvement to come for the Amanda Perratt horse, which has a useful 5lb claimer on board now too.
Advised: Each Way Lucky 15
3.05 Ayr – Monsieur Pontaven
3.35 Ayr – Mr Chocolate Drop
4.45 Ayr – Headstight
5.15 Ayr – Saxonette
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
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