Tuesday 17 July 2012

The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Betfair)

To give the race its full name; The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored by Betfair) is one of these biggest races of the summer. Irrespective of The July Cup, The Goodwood Cup, and so on and so forth, the three Group One, mile and a half races are set in a league of their own. They are The Derby, The King George and The Arc, and the prize money of the three reflects that. The King George has a who’s who of past champions, the crème de la crème, and the vast majority have turned out to be strong at stud level too. Montjeu, Galileo, Hurricane Run, Dylan Thomas and Duke of Marmalade have all flown the flag for Coolmore, and they have a leading fancy once again in St Nicholas Abbey. The Montjeu bred champion two year old was the most talked and hyped about horse in racing when winning The Racing Post Trophy with relative ease in 2009, much like his brother Camelot. He however flopped in The Guineas, and had his three year old season written off, returning with some style in 2011, winning The Dee Stakes at Chester, and The Coronation Cup at Epsom. He ran with credit in The King George and Arc, before winning a memorable Breeders Cup Turf with Aidan’s son Joseph on board, He successfully defended his Coronation Cup at Epsom, and with relative ease, in something of a canter. The form has looked poor however with Red Cadeaux third on his next two starts, and Quest For Peace second last in The Hardwicke Stakes. He has to be respected however given his connections, and he has Robin Hood and Windsor Palace as likely pacemakers for the only trainer to have group horses as lambs to the slaughter, setting the fractions.

Last year’s one-two in The St Leger reoppose with Brown Panther and Masked Marvel both having points to prove. Masked Marvel has disappointed since his classic win and finished seventh of eight in The Jockey Club Stakes and then third behind St Nicholas Abbey; and on that form alone, he looks likely to struggle. Brown Panther struggled at Chester before returning to form in a Pontefract Listed Race, beating Lost In The Moment and Jet Away by seven and a further four lengths, respectively. The Shirocco colt is a course and distance winner after winning King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but looks severely out of his depth here.

The French have three runners in the field, and it is hard to know which one of the three rivals has the most obvious claims between them, let alone winning the race itself. Reliable Man was heavily fancied for the Jockey Club Stakes when flopping in the race that featured Masked Marvel, and Dunaden has similarly ran well below his Melbourne Cup winning form from last year, his best effort coming second to Sea Moon in The Hardwicke Stakes. He ran on strongly that day and will have the jockey who rode him to victory at Flemington Park that day aboard, which is an obvious positive. Shareta is a horse for The Aga Khan, and although again, has claims, based on recent trends, involving winning at least one of his last two starts, and running in better grade, has to be opposed. Last year’s Arc heroine Danedream, I may prove to be stung on this, but I am pretty sure her Arc win was a fluke, and expect her to be well and truly trounced in this company. You know where to point the finger of blame when she hacks up! Deep Brillante is the final foreign challenger for a very international renewal and the Japanese contender is a son of the brilliant Deep Impact. He won the Japanese Derby by a nose and although carries a progressive profile, the quality on offer here is likely to be far more substantial than those faced in the orient.

The remaining two horses are of the highest class, and are progressive four year olds for connections who thrive in these races. Nathaniel came back with a bang two weeks ago, winning the 2012 running of the Coral Eclipse, finding more in his deep reserves to defy the late run of Farhh. That was the colts run since The Champion Stakes last year, a race which has worked out tremendously well from a form perspective. So You Think and Cirrus Des Aigle, the first two home have both gone on to further group one success, and that was over Nathaniel’s inferior trip. He won the King George last year, beating Workforce and St Nicholas Abbey, in comfortable style, and there is little to suggest St Nicholas Abbey will reverse last years form. That does not account for SEA MOON however who looks like a typical Sir Michael Stoute horses who he has trained to win this race in recent years. Like Harbinger (2010), he is aimed at the King George after winning The Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and like Conduit (2009); he is aimed after running in The St Leger the previous season. Connections have a tremendous record in the race, and Sea Moon ticks every box in terms of trends, won last time out, course winner, four year old, Group winner etc. He looks to be going the right way, and will have the best jockey in the game on in Ryan Moore. I fully expect Nathaniel to follow him home, and Dunaden to run on into a place.

1. Sea Moon
2. Nathaniel
3. Dunaden

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

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