The Players Championhip 2012

The Players Championship is seen as ‘The Fifth Major’ and is one of the most fiercely contested tournaments on the tour. Played at Sawgrass, it is synonymous with the infamous 17th, the elusive par 3, set on its own, and known as ‘The Island Green’ is one of the most difficult holes in worldwide golf.

In recent times, the Americans have struggled, as have the golfers at the very top of the tree. A month after The Masters, and a month before The US Open, it can be seen as an after thought for some of the very best. Hence, the worlds very best have had a relatively poor record recently, as have Americans, and as such, golfers at the top of the market such as Woods, Mickleson, Mahan et al, can be overlooked at he prices.

Driving length is something that is usually is the premium factor on the PGA Tour, with Watson, Johnson, Garrigus, Bradley and the man himself Tiger Woods changing the way the game is played in recent seasons, but as I can very well tell you, length isn’t everything. At The Players, it is more about accuracy, remember, it’s not what you have, it’s what you do with it. It is all very well driving the ball 350 yards, but if you have to chip out from under a bush, what is the point.

That is why some of the most recent winners have got the best iron game on the tour. The best example being Sergio Garcia. A winner in 2008, and a runner up the year before, his game is ideally suited to the course, getting round with a high Greens in Regulation percentage, giving him the chance to make birdie. He has been in good nick this year, and considering he was Tied 12th last year, can be deemed something of a course specialist. Much like runners around Prestbury Park, if he is there jumping the last, he has a good chance providing he gets up the hill. Another horses for courses player is David Toms, runner up last year, and winner in 2007. Another player who isn’t particularly long, but very accurate. He is third in stats for driving accuracy, and with his previous form here, has to be respected, at very large prices.

Australians have generally got an exceptional record in terms of proportionality, and they have some strong challengers once more, most notably in the form of Jason Day. He finished Tied 6th here on only his second start here, after missing the cut the year before. He is a big occasion player, with his record in majors in the last 18 months reading 10-2-2-30-MC; he is a boy going places. He has returned from injury steadily and made his best return of the season last week at Wells Fargo (Tied 6th) and he looks to have outstanding claims and is a leading ‘tee-to-green’ player.
The two other leading Aussies come in the hardened veteran Robert Allenby and Aaron Badderley, players who both again have form around Sawgrass. Allenby is a massive price due to his patchy form, but generally comes alive around the course, second here in 2004, and bounced back from poor form last season before posting a Tied 6th last season. He was tied second going into the last round before fading, but has the right type of profile of a top 100 ‘Un-American’, tee-to-green player, who looks much overpriced. Badderley is more of a quirky player, who has struggled in the last few seasons, but his game is gradually returning to the promise he showed at the turn of the millennium. In the last three years, he has form of 6-MC-9 around Sawgrass in the last three years. He had a recent Tied 4th a few weeks ago, and could be creeping back into form. Geoff Ogilvy is another pesky Aussie who often slips under the radar, but looks to be coming here primed, after a recent failed late charge at Wells Fargo. He had a run of eight birdies in fifteen holes in the third round to vie for the lead before fading, and he has consistent figures for driving and GIR.

Europeans have recently a good record here, with wins for Stenson and Garcia in recent times, as well as strong showings for Donald, Westwood, Poulter and Molinari. A lively outsider who has decent form here is Frederic Jacobsen who looks to follow in compatriot Stenson’s footsteps by going better than his 9th place finish in 2009. Just a hunch, but if he gets his game together, he could throw a shock, at seriously large prices, around the 100/1 mark. Martin Kaymer winning however would be no shock, and the striking German has been rather subdued since his win in the PGA Championship in 2010, feeling his way back to form. He has however got better with three starts here (55-34-19) and has eased himself back into the new season. Only playing seven tournaments so far, compared to the average of twelve, he can strike a ball far, goes tee-to-green, putts well and has shown several times, “The Iceman” is cool, calm and composed when it comes to finishing the job.

Two American’s who have made giant strides in the last few years in particular, and have a winning pedigree are Webb Simpson and Steve Stricker. Stricker in particular is someone who when is ‘on it’ is imperious. He has a somewhat dogged determination about him, which has seen him rise up against adversity, peaking later in his career than most. His iron play is outstanding, leading him to be 7th on the PGA Tour hitting greens in regulation, not to mention 27th on driving accuracy. He had his best performance last week, finishing sixth, and his record in the last few years at Sawgrass is 12-DNP-22. He should be able to handle the pressure, and is an unbelievable price from an each way perspective. Similarly Webb Simpson, who seems to get better and better as the season progresses. He won the Wyndham and the Deutsche Bank last season, as well as stellar performances in the majors. He looked for all the winner at Quail Hollow last week, before his putting let him down towards the back end, but he looked in good touch, and is the second on tour with his birdies per round (4.43), and with his scoring, he gives himself chances constantly.

Shortlist & Advised

Steve Stricker 40/1 3pts EW
Webb Simpson 45/1 3pts EW
Jason Day 45/1 3pts EW
Sergio Garcia 45/1 3pts EW
Martin Kaymer 66/1 2pts EW
David Toms 80/1 2pts EW
Freddy Jacobsen 100/1 1pt EW
Geoff Ogilvy 100/1 1pt EW
Aaron Badderley 125/1 1pt EW
Robert Allenby 175/1 1pt EW

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
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