Thursday 17 May 2012

2012 Champions League Final Preview

It is Chelsea (7/2 in 90 mins), who exercised their Champions League demons in finally going through against Barcelona after going out to them at the semi final stage infamously in 2008, to a last minute Andres Iniesta winner, as well as in 2009, which ended in Didier Drogba memorably shouting expletives at the camera and branding the officials “cheats” and a “disgrace”, both of which leading to a five game ban, after being refused four seemingly stone wall penalties. It was all change this year however, coming from an improbable position in almost miraculous fashion. Chelsea won the first leg 1-0 at home, through a sole Didier Drogba goal, in a master class in defending at lead at The Bridge. That being said, at The Nou Camp, Barcelona were 1-0 up when captain John Terry was sent off for violent conduct, and it looked game over. However, the most resilient of fight backs came in the form of a Ramires equaliser, before an Iniesta effort from close range to get the tie 2-2 on aggregate. The inevitable seemed fate. But fate seemed to have other plans in mind, a stout and resilient performance from Chelsea, even saw Lionel Messi miss a penalty, as well as spurning other chances, and despite Barcelona having 77% possession across both games, it was the £50 million disappointment Fernando Torres with a 93rd minute goal that sent Gary Neville into raptures.

Bayern Munich (8/11 in 90 mins) had an easier route, routing Basle and Marseille, but like Chelsea left it late in the semis in similar dramatic fashion. Winning the first leg 2-1, coming from a 1-0 deficit, and going to the Santiago Bernabeau being the underdogs, even more so when 2-0 down in double quick time thanks to the boot of Cristiano Ronaldo. However an Arjen Robben (9/2 First Goalscorer) penalty. That followed a gritty defensive display before dramatically going through on penalties, to give an unlikely of finals without Real Madrid or Barcelona, and will play host at their home ground, The Allianz Arena.

So what of the final, with fate seemingly on both sides?

Chelsea have a decimated squad thanks to accumulated suspensions, and as such as the outsiders (7/2 standout top price), which seems quite a big price, given the trials and tribulations just to get here, coming back against Napoli and Barca, lady luck seems to be smiling on them. Ivanovic, Terry, Ramires and Mereiles are all out suspended, and defenders David Luiz and Gary Cahill are fighting battles to be fit for the big game. They have enough depth and quality in their midfield where they can pose a real danger however, with boss Roberto Di Matteo expected to start with a 4-3-3 formation, playing with all three strikers, Torres (Stand out top price 8/1 First Goalscorer), Drogba (Stand out top price 15/2 First Goalscorer) and Sturridge (10/1 First Goalscorer).

Likely Team: Cech, Boswinga, Cahill, Luiz, Cole, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Sturridge, Torres, Drogba 4-3-3.

Bayern can’t be underestimated, and have a wealth of talent at their abundance, and a team that has been nurtured over the last few years, including some of Germany’s finest young talent. Mario Gomez (10/11 to score anytime) is the team’s talisman up front, and generally leads the line well, being the focal point of most attacks. It is their midfield where the real danger comes from however, with two of the most feared wingers in world football, with Frank Ribery (6/4 to score anytime) and former Chelsea player Arjen Robben (6/5 to score anytime) that hold the true dangers. Especially when you consider that Lahm and Boateng will be bombing down both flanks, offering overlaps on each side. Chelsea’s wide men will need to have had their weetabix that morning. All four wide men are excellent on the ball, dribbling and crossing, and have shown how adept they are in beating a man and cutting in from either side, getting a shot or cross in at goal.

Likely Team: Neuer, Lahm, Boateng, Alaba, Pranjic, Muller, Schweinsteiger, Robben, Kroos, Ribery, Gomez

Chelsea look too big at 7/2 for the win, given how their top men usually perform in the big games. Didier Drogba at 15/2 looks massive, especially given his performances in the Champions League semi finals, and FA Cup final; He is a man for the big occasion. Chelsea have shown tenacity to get through when behind against Barcelona and Napoli, and will be more than a handful for the Bayern defenders to deal with, although it would be no surprise to see their defence concede early, such is their inexperience at the back.

Advised:

Chelsea to win in 90 minutes - 7/2
Didier Drogba First Goalscorer – 15/2
Bayern Munich Half Time/Chelsea Full Time Double Result – 28/1

Jack Milner - @JJMSports

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