The Grand National is a strong a puzzle as ever before, and with fourty runners, and a wide open field on good ground, and with money coming for a number of horses in the last two weeks, and conditions changing by the hour, it looks a tricky one. It looks to be good, good to soft in places, which immediately throw out the mudlarks, and soft ground horses, such as Cappa Bleu, West End Rocker, Killyglen, and Giles Cross. Then draw a line through the older horses, specifically anything over aged eleven, which again rules out Hello Bud, In Compliance, Vic Venturi, State of Play, Mon Mome and Black Apalachi. Now we are down to 30. I don’t like horses who are due to go down in the weights, and are official losing weight, which takes out a sizeable few, with Deep Purple, Tatenen, According To Pete, On His Own, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, Postmaster, Viking Blond and Neptune Equester. Down to 20.
It is hard to look at the long shots, with modern day Grand National going to classier horses, with the average mark of a runner in the National up 10lb since 2000. That would take out Arbor Supreme, Midnight Haze, Alfa Beat, Quiscover Fontaine, and Weird Al. Shortlist down to 15.
The favourite is Synchronised, but off top weight, and on the back off a tough season and a Gold Cup and a Lexus, his iffy jumping may get found out. The Irish staying chase division looks poor this season, which would rule out The Midnight Club, Seabass, Becauseicouldntsee, Organisedconfusion and Rare Bob. Down to 10.
Planet of Sound looks to be poorly handicapped on his two runs in the Hennessy and the Racing Plus Chase, and is yet to run over three miles two furlongs. Off 11”5, he is carrying more than enough weight, as is Neptune Collognes off 11”6. Always Right has travelled well twice in staying chases before finding little late on, and has doubts. As does Sunnyhillboy, who was laid out for the Kim Muir, with this as an after thought. Junior looked to be a strong runner for this, but with the recent drift in the market and sketchy jumping last time out at Doncaster, he is a worry. Arbor Supreme is the third string of the JP contingent and has show little this season. Down to 4.
The four to focus on are Ballabriggs, Shakalakaboomboom, Chicago Grey, and Calgary Bay. BALLABRIGGS has been steadily planned and pencilled in for his defence of his Grand National crown since his win last year, and warmed up with eye-catching vigour in his return at Kelso last month. He looks to have added more definition, and jumped with remarkable fluency. Given the yards current form, the record of previous winners in the race, and the lack of potential stayers in the race, he looks the each way bet to nothing in the race. He is the best bet of the race. Similarly SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM has the same profile Ballabriggs had going into the race last year, promising stayer chaser, laid out for the race. He had a nice prep last month over hurdles, and has a protected mark since his Cheltenham win and Doncaster second. He ran second behind CALGARY BAY who has always been held in high regard, and was a faller here last year. With a stable and horse back for form, he could run a big race if managing to stay the trip. A horse I ear marked for this race after his Cheltenham win last year is CHICAGO GREY for the Gordon Elliot team. He won the four mile race, on good ground, with the second horse Beshabar going on to win the Scottish National. He has a handy weight, ideal ground and a good jockey on board. He has run over inadequate trips and races to protect his mark, and runs well with a small break. He has to be respected.
Ballabriggs (Ew) - NAP
Calgary Bay (Ew)
Chicago Grey (Ew)
Shakalakaboomboom (Ew)
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