The pinnacle of a jockeys professional career is winning the Grand National, and that can be exemplified with Tony McCoy’s spew of emotion when winning on Don’t Push It in 2010, ending a fifteen year wait, and Mick Fitzgerald’s infamous comment that ‘sex would be an anti-climax after that’. I can’t say further than that.
As well as the National, the festival itself is an absolute cracker, with tremendous wins so far for horses I personally followed at Cheltenham, such as Darlan, Finians Rainbow and Grumeti all winning, and winning in style to boot. A horse who won in a similar fashion at Cheltenham was SIMONSIG, who runs in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices Hurdle. The race was won in similar fashion by Spirit Son last year, and he looks an absolute certainty for renewing another win for connections. The form has worked out well from his runs at Sandown and Cheltenham, with both Cotton Mill and Fingal Bay running well yesterday, and it seems like a formality, with him having over a stone in hand on official ratings. That being said, there looks to be an even easier winner for the team in the hands of SPRINTER SACRE. The Arkle Chase winner is in a league of his own, and is the best novice chaser I have personally ever seen. He is now four from four over fences, beating nearly every novice chaser in the country, on the bridle, and will a joy to see him jump his opponents into next week.
The third race looks set to complete a quick fire treble for the Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty team in the form of OSCAR WHISKY who returns to his preferred two and a half mile trip after seemingly not seeing out the trip in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle behind Big Bucks at Cheltenham. This race has just six runners but no shortages of class, with four Grade 1 winners all taking part. Paul Nicholls is doubly represented through Zarkander and Rock on Ruby, with Ruby Walsh opting to ride Zarkander, and Noel Fehily keeping the ride on Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby. Both have doubts, with Rock on Ruby seemingly stealing the race from the front at Cheltenham, and Zarkander running very under-par, although his Betfair Hurdle form has been giving a boost this week at Aintree. Thousand Stars runs for Willie Mullins, again at a preferred trip, stepping down from three miles, after a good fourth in the World Hurdle. That being said, Oscar Whisky has improved this year, and had the better of him last year, and I expect Rock on Ruby to front run, and Oscar Whisky to pick him off with relative ease a furlong out, with Thousand Stars filling out the forecast.
The listed handicap chase looks quite the puzzle, with fourteen runners over the extended three miles, on good, spring ground making it a real test of pace and stamina. Chapoturgeon ran well in the Foxhunters Chase at Cheltenham, and has had the form work well in behind with Cloudy Lane sixth that day winning the Aintree equivalent. The yard is in good form, which would also bring in Noland, but both would seemingly want a bit more juice in the ground. Battle Group could have more improvement for the Pipe yard, finishing a good fourth at Cheltenham, behind Aintree Bowl third Hunt Ball, but the form doesn’t look that strong. At the current prices, the best value looks to be TULLAMORE DEW for the Nick Gifford and red hot Denis O’ Regan on board. He has the most consistent and strongest form in the book, with his second behind Massini’s Maguire at Ascot, with Chance Du Roy finishing second in the Topham and Cappa Bleu expected to run well in the National. Providing O’ Regan can a nice tune out of him like he has Cape Tribulation and Cotton Mill, I expect a strong run.
The Grand National is a strong a puzzle as ever before, and with fourty runners, and a wide open field on good ground, and with money coming for a number of horses in the last two weeks, and conditions changing by the hour, it looks a tricky one. It looks to be good, good to soft in places, which immediately throw out the mudlarks, and soft ground horses, such as Cappa Bleu, West End Rocker, Killyglen, and Giles Cross. Then draw a line through the older horses, specifically anything over aged eleven, which again rules out Hello Bud, In Compliance, Vic Venturi, State of Play, Mon Mome and Black Apalachi. Now we are down to 30. I don’t like horses who are due to go down in the weights, and are official losing weight, which takes out a sizeable few, with Deep Purple, Tatenen, According To Pete, On His Own, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, Postmaster, Viking Blond and Neptune Equester. Down to 20.
It is hard to look at the long shots, with modern day Grand National going to classier horses, with the average mark of a runner in the National up 10lb since 2000. That would take out Arbor Supreme, Midnight Haze, Alfa Beat, Quiscover Fontaine, and Weird Al. Shortlist down to 15.
The favourite is Synchronised, but off top weight, and on the back off a tough season and a Gold Cup and a Lexus, his iffy jumping may get found out. The Irish staying chase division looks poor this season, which would rule out The Midnight Club, Seabass, Becauseicouldntsee, Organisedconfusion and Rare Bob. Down to 10.
Planet of Sound looks to be poorly handicapped on his two runs in the Hennessy and the Racing Plus Chase, and is yet to run over three miles two furlongs. Off 11”5, he is carrying more than enough weight, as is Neptune Collognes off 11”6. Always Right has travelled well twice in staying chases before finding little late on, and has doubts. As does Sunnyhillboy, who was laid out for the Kim Muir, with this as an after thought. Junior looked to be a strong runner for this, but with the recent drift in the market and sketchy jumping last time out at Doncaster, he is a worry. Arbor Supreme is the third string of the JP contingent and has show little this season. Down to 4.
The four to focus on are Ballabriggs, Shakalakaboomboom, Chicago Grey, and Calgary Bay. BALLABRIGGS has been steadily planned and pencilled in for his defence of his Grand National crown since his win last year, and warmed up with eye-catching vigour in his return at Kelso last month. He looks to have added more definition, and jumped with remarkable fluency. Given the yards current form, the record of previous winners in the race, and the lack of potential stayers in the race, he looks the each way bet to nothing in the race. He is the best bet of the race. Similarly SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM has the same profile Ballabriggs had going into the race last year, promising stayer chaser, laid out for the race. He had a nice prep last month over hurdles, and has a protected mark since his Cheltenham win and Doncaster second. He ran second behind CALGARY BAY who has always been held in high regard, and was a faller here last year. With a stable and horse back for form, he could run a big race if managing to stay the trip. A horse I ear marked for this race after his Cheltenham win last year is CHICAGO GREY for the Gordon Elliot team. He won the four mile race, on good ground, with the second horse Beshabar going on to win the Scottish National. He has a handy weight, ideal ground and a good jockey on board. He has run over inadequate trips and races to protect his mark, and runs well with a small break. He has to be respected.
SIRE DE GRUGY looks to be a cracking bet off top weight in the 5.05, a two mile handicap hurdle over the extended two miles. The race is limited to conditional jockeys, and Gary Moore has a more than decent jockey in son Joshua, who claims an invaluable 5lb. He has concrete form, fourth in the Betfair Hurdle, winning a class 2 handicap hurdle at Taunton with Edgardo Sol and Nampour in behind, before another good show in the Paddy Power Imperial Cup. Although off top weight, I believe he has an outstanding chance, and will run his usual, tough race.
The bumper is generally a rather open contest, and I don’t have an overly strong opinion, but the favourite does look very strong in POPULATION for the in form John Ferguson yard. He runs here instead of Cheltenham and is two for two in bumpers for the yard since joining from the flat in France, coming with an impressive reputation and pedigree. AP McCoy has been booked for the ride, and he looks to set a decent standard. My Tent or Yours is the preferred mount of Barry Geraghty, and the Nicky Henderson runner will likely give a better run than at Ascot when he just tired in the final furlong, and should improve with more experience.
1.45 Simonsig (Nap)
2.15 Sprinter Sacre
2.50 Oscar Whisky (NB)
3.25 Tullamore Dew (Ew)
4.15 Ballabriggs (Ew) & Shakalakaboomboom (Ew)
5.05 Sire De Grugy (Ew)
5.35 Population
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
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