Thursday 18 August 2011

York Ebor Meeting - Ebor Day Analysis and Selections

York culminates on Saturday with an terrific card, which has a terrific variety, including races for stayers and sprinters alike, with the card roundly finished off with the Betfred Ebor, one of the handicap betting opportunities of the season. The market is currently headed by Goodwood Cup second Lost in the Moment for Frankie Dettori and the Godolphin Team, who has been given a favourable draw, along with the Brian Ellison trained Saptapadi.

Starting from the first race and working our way through, the first race is the City of York Stakes, a seven furlong listed race, which was won last year by Yaa Wayl. He was a 5/1 shot last year for Michael Jarvis, and looks to go back to back, this time for team Godolphin. He is in good form after winning a conditions race after a 133 day break, and should go close once more. The Dandy Nicholls trained Regal Parade should have conditions to suit, and has been tough and resilient this year, but doesn’t seem to have the fight to win these days, and his heart seems to be questionable. The most interesting horse is the unexposed KING TORUS for the Richard Hannon yard. He looked to be a potential Guineas horse when winning the Superlative and Vintage Stakes (both Group 2) at Newmarket and Goodwood festivals last July and was earmarked as having a bright future. He has been unlucky with injury, and seeks to make amends here and get his three year old season to a belated and successful start.

The Lonsdale Cup is another race in the British Champion Series, towards the stayers division, and recent Goodwood Cup winner OPINION POLL looks to easily have the best chance here, following up from his victory here last year. His form is absolutely rock solid. He finished second to Fame and Glory, an Irish Derby winner in the Ascot Gold Cup, the pair pulling clear of the field. He followed that up with an excellent win at Goodwood, with perhaps an even stronger field than Ascot, beating tough handicappers such as Overturn and Fox Hunt with relative ease. He goes better with cut in the ground, and the forecast rain should give him an even greater edge over this field, making it back to back victories for Opinion Poll and Frankie Dettori.

The Betfred Ebor is the showpiece race of the meeting, with 20 runners competing for a first prize over £130,000. Expect a gamble from shrewd northern trainers, with trainers Easterby, Johnston, Barron all famous for landing a plunge, and this could be the same again with SAPTAPADI having an outstanding chance for northern trainer Brian Ellison. The former Sir Michael Stoute horse has been progressive this year, with his run last time out, beaten narrowly by subsequent group one winner Twice, looking very strong. The step up in trip should definitely suit, and he has been laid out for this race. Kieren Fallon being booked on board is another massive plus for the five year old gelding, who comes into his element at York. Lost in the Moment looks a strong chance for the Godolphin camp, who finished a game second behind Opinion Poll at Goodwood, which on bare form looks very good. He is another who has been aimed at this race and seems the stable have really aimed at this meeting this year. MODUN is a hose of great interest for Sir Michael Stoute, finishing a narrow second at Goodwood when being a supposed handicap good thing. He was staying on that day, and the trip of 14 furlongs look ideal. On pedigree he should be a group horse, and so he could be a major dark horse in a race like this.

2.00 York – King Torus

3.05 York – Opinion Poll (Nap)

3.40 York – Saptapadi (Ew) & Modun (Ew)

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