Cheltenham Festival 2018
The festival curtain-raiser can often throw-up something of
a surprise winner and, with the exception of the Mullins hat-trick of Champagne
Fever, Vautour and Douvan, it is a race that has historically been favourable
to the layers.
Getabrd runs for those oh so familiar connections in
Tuesday’s opener and I expect him to drift markedly from his current position
as the 7/4 market leader with BetVictor. The gelding has impressed in both
hurdles successes this term however, there is little form to back up his
current price and he definitely strikes me as a style over substance’.
His price collapsed after his success last time out in the
G2 Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle, with trainer Willie Mullins keen to keep him
over the minimum trip. Nevertheless, connections were originally aiming over further at the start of the campaign and that, combined with his lack of
form on heavy ground, makes him difficult to fancy at the prices.
BetVictor are paying four places on the race and I’m keen to
back a couple at bigger prices. Kalashnikov produced a dour performance to win
the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but was previously put in his place by Summerville Boy (1.30) in the G1
Tolworth Hurdle and is somehow double the price at 8/1 and four places with
BetVictor.
He tanked through the heavy ground at Sandown and has gone
under the radar for trainer Tom George but looks the ideal type to thrive in a
likely end-to-end gallop. The same can be said about Nicky Henderson’s Claimantakinforgan (1.30) who impressed
in soft ground at Newbury and Ascot during the first-half of the campaign.
Whilst disappointing last time out in Musselburgh, he is trainer Nicky
Henderson’s sole runner in a race he historically has a good record in and
reportedly thrived on the Lambourn gallops at the weekend. He looks too big at
14/1 and 4 places with BetVictor.
The Arkle gives us another warm favourite trained by Willie
Mullins, ridden by Ruby Walsh, and unbeaten this season over obstacles. Footpad
has done nothing wrong in his three wins over the larger obstacles but left the
impression that Petit Mouchoir could reverse the form when the pair next meet
at Cheltenham. I expect him to get closer than his four-length defeat last
month at Leopardstown, but Saint
Calvados (2.10) looks a potential superstar for fledgling trainer Harry
Whittington and gets the nod to complete the four-timer under Aidan Coleman.
The French import made a winning British debut at Newbury in
the autumn and has improved to win his next two starts, including making all to
land the Kingmaker last month at Warwick. He should relish conditions and can
hopefully give Coleman a first G1 success.
Both Buveur D’Air (3.30)
and Apple’s Jade (4.10) are
odds-on for their respective G1 contests and I can’t find any chinks in their
armours for the Champion Hurdle and Mares’ Hurdle. Both won the corresponding
races at the track 12 months ago and should win with the minimum of fuss for
Messrs Henderson and Elliott.
The latter has a strong hand in the National Hunt Chase and,
despite Fagan missing the race at the 11th hour, Jury Duty and
Mossback ensure the handler has the two market principles under the excellent
Jamie Codd and Lisa O’Neill. BetVictor are paying four places on the race and I
cannot see Ms Parfois (4.50) being
out of the first quartet.
Anthony Honeyball’s star mare has won three times already
this season over fences and, although finding Black Corton too good at Ascot,
should improve for the step up in trip under the excellent Will Biddick.
I was on Movewiththetimes in the Novices’ Handicap Chase
that completes the card and it’s fascinating to see him go for Thursday’s
Festival Plate with owner JP McManus instead relying on Any Second Now (5.30) for Ted and Mark Walsh.
The selection chased home both Invitation Only and Monalee,
both favourites for G1 Novice Chases later on in the week, in his first two starts over fences earlier in
the campaign and looks the class act amongst the strong 20-runner field.
The Ultima is a notoriously tricky handicap but Coo Star Sivola (2.50) looks to have
been laid out for the race to give jockey Lizzie Kelly a first festival
success. The selection has formed tied in with excellent novices Movewiththetimes
and Kalondra and relished the step up in trip when winning over three miles
last month at Exeter. He looks well-treated despite a 7lb rise at the weights.
Singlefarmpayment
was a narrow second 12 months ago and should be there or thereabouts from just
a 3lb higher mark.
Selections
1.30 Summerville Boy/Claimantakinforgan
2.10 Saint Calvados (Nap)
2.50 Coo Star Sivola/Singlefarmpayment
3.30 Buveur D’Air
4.10 Apple’s Jade
4.50 Ms Parfois
5.30 Any Second Now
For all the latest odds head to www.BetVictor.com
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