The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has been decimated by a host of absentees for various reasons with three of the leading market contenders, Moon Racer, Neon Wolf and Movewiththetimes, all missing the festival curtain-raiser for various reasons in the previous week or so. Moon Racer heads to the feature Champion Hurdle on the back of winning both starts in novice company earlier in the season, Movewiththetimes has a niggle and misses Cheltenham in favour of both Aintree or Punchestown (or both) whilst Neon Wolf is likely to be a short-priced favourite for tomorrow’s opening Neptune Novices’ Hurdle over two and a half miles.
That leaves the trio of Melon, Ballyandy and Bunk Off Early at the head of the market and the former as the 11/4 favourite. I’m mad keen to take on the Willie Mullins’ animal, who arrives on the back of winning a Maiden Hurdle over in Ireland at skinny odds and has long been the hype horse from the Clossuton yard this term. The fact that the yard have such a strong recent record in the race, and the fact that the gelding is likely to have Ruby Walsh on board, hints that he should be respected.
However, if he were trained by anyone else other than W P Mullins he would be a double figure price and warrants opposing as the jolly. You need a really battle-hardened animal to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; previous winners Menorah (4), Champagne Fever (4) and Vautour all came with the necessary experience and I think last year’s Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy (1.30) has all the tools to emulate Champagne Fever and do the Bumper/Supreme double.
I was at the Twiston-Davies yard in the run up to the festival and he confessed to be staggered at how the gelding was beaten in each of his first three runs over hurdles. He looked a different proposition when dropping back to the minimum trip to land the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, when relishing returning to a strong gallop. He is likely to get conditions to suit once more and will take all the beating under regular partner Sam Twiston-Davies. I’d give a squeak to Bunk Off Early, the supposed Mullins’ second string, who tanked through the Deloitte at Leopardstown the last day over two and a quarter miles and should likewise appreciate the drop back to two miles.
Altior (2.10) is quite frankly the best horse in training and strolls to success in the Arkle. Nicky Henderson has played down comparisons to the great Sprinter Sacre however, he looks the heir apparent and a clash with Douvan must surely await next season.
I had the pleasure of chatting to Jonjo O’Neill at Huntingdon last Sunday and he was very keen on the chances of Holywell (2.50) in the Ultimate Handicap Chase. The selection has a terrific record in the race, winning the corresponding race in 2014 and second behind the well-handicapped Un Temps Pour Tout with the pair pulling miles clear of the field. The now 10yo is just a pound lower than last year’s mark and should reward each-way support under regular partner Richie McClernon. The Druids Nephew, winner of the race in 2015, and Singlefarmpayment are both likewise well-treated and will likely be thrown into my placepot!
The Champion Hurdle has been described as ‘the worst in recent times’ but that’s an unfair assessment of plenty of second season hurdlers who arrive having just had their first year in open company. The trio of Yanworth, Petit Mouchoir and Buveur D’Air were all smart novices last term, all running well without winning at the festival, and are likely to complete the 1-2-3 in the feature.
Buveur D’Air would need further rain to aid his chance but I can see the argument for Petit Mouchoir, and I’ve had a few quid on at fancier prices earlier in the season. The front-runner has improved for the move to trainer Hendy de Bromhead and is guaranteed to get a soft leader under Bryan Cooper.
Both he and The New One, beaten in the last three renewals, are likely to ensure they go at a good clip and that should set the race up for Alan King’s striking chestnut Yanworth (3.30). The selection has been beaten just twice in his career, both at the Cheltenham Festival, when fourth in the Champion Bumper two years ago and second to Yorkhill last year. He looks a transformed animal this season however, finding an inner steel that looked missing 12 months ago, and is a deserved favourite for the feature 2m Hurdle.
Willie Mullins has an incredible record in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle, helped by superstar Quevega winning the race six years on the spin, and Vroum Vroum Mag making it 8 wins on the bounce for the Closutton handler when scoring impressively for favourite backers last year. She looked below-part last time out at Doncaster when scrambling home when a warm odds-on favourite and has been apparently working poorly at home.
Likewise stablemate Limini, who misses a supposed crack at the Champion in favour of this having beaten Apple’s Jade (4.10) last time out at Punchestown. The latter is 5/1 in a supposed three runner race and, after Gordon Elliott insisted she would come on for the run, looks well-priced to reverse the form.
The Irish have a strong hand in the National Hunt Chase with both A Genie In A Bottle and Edwulf well-supported on the back of leading amateurs Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor being confirmed for leading owners Eddie O’Leary and JP McManus. There are no stand-out staying chasers this season and I’m tempted to chance David Pipe’s Champers On Ice (4.50) at a double-figure price. I was at Warwick to see him chase home Harry Fry’s American in a G2 Novice Chase, when he made eye-catching late headway to go second in the closing stages. The grey was unsuited by the drop back to two and a half miles on Trials’ Day at Cheltenham and is worth another try stepped back up in trip.
Foxtail Hill (5.30) was given to me as Nigel Twiston-Davies’ best chance in Cheltenham’s handicaps and should fill the frame in the finale. The selection won two starts back at Kempton in the most bizarre fashion, jumping markedly out to his left throughout, and did likewise when winning over course and distance last time out. That defeat of Saphir du Rheu looks the strongest on offer and he should go well, along with Venetia Williams’ Burtons Well and Malcolm Jefferson’s Double Ws.
Selections
1.30 Ballyandy and Bunk Off Early
2.10 Altior
2.50 Holywell
3.30 Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir
4.10 Apple’s Jade
4.50 Champers On Ice
5.30 Foxtail Hill
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