Irving and Vautour head the betting for the Supreme Novices Hurdle but will punters be roaring a well backed jolly in the festival opener?
History suggests that they will not, and the value is with those at the bigger prices and with those at the head of the market the 'sexier types' that have yet to done the business when seriously asked to battle.
Irving is flat-bred and German-bred and would be a trends buster should Paul Nicholls’ 5-y-o were to get his head in front, but he’s not for me, yet to go left-handed over hurdles and far too short for a horse with all his form on what I would refer to as ‘speed tracks’.
Willie Mullins’ Vautour drifted markedly last week ahead of a reported setback at home, which led to stable-mate Wicklow Brave being well-punted in the aftermath. The fact that Mullins runs three suggests that there is no serious stand-out and all three, including Gigginstown runner Vaiseur Lido, are priced on reputation as opposed to actual form.
Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race, but his runners seem to place, rather than win, and it can be worth overlooking the pair of Jossies Hill and Vaniteux for the over-priced pair of Garde La Victoire (1.30) and The Liquidator (1.30).
The latter was 4th in the Champion Bumper before winning the big one in Ireland and similarly translating that form well over hurdles when winning over the Supreme course and distance in November. He, like Garde La Victoire, were both unsuited by the sharp, tight nature of Kempton and both were similarly tailed off.
The better ground and stiffer track should play to the strengths of both and it is always worth allowing a horse one bad run. We hope anyway!
Champagne Fever (2.05) has won at the last two festivals and can complete the hat-trick and ‘do a Bobs Worth’ by making all to win the Arkle. Ruby Walsh will control things from the front and make fools of them all in behind, to start the plunge on Hurricane Fly.
The Fly is 6/4 with BetVictor to go off favourite and I expect a plunge to go astray with The New One (3.20) taken to lower the colours of the Champ. His record around the track is exemplary, impressing with his turn of foot up the hill to win the Neptune last season and bounce back and beat Zarkander in the International.
With Captain Cee Bee employed as a pacemaker and Jezki likely in his slipstream, providing Sam Twiston-Davies gets the fractions right, I fancy him to out-battle My Tent or Yours in the finish and reverse placings from the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins can swiftly make amends in the Mares Hurdle with Quevega (4.00) bidding for her 6th consecutive race at the festival and it is difficult to see her beat.
The two handicaps and the National Hunt Chase look minefields but that further heightens the value in the races, with late support for Midnight Prayer (4.40) further enhancing his claims for the slowly bubbling Alan King stable.
He won the novices’ chase at Warwick that Godsmejudge won en-route to running well in the race before winning the Scottish National up at Ayr and he is taken at around the 10/1 mark to follow up the trainer’s last win in the race, back in 2008.
In the two handicap chases, Buywise (5.15) looks a cracking each way bet in the novices’ handicap that rounds off the card, for the team of Paul Moloney and Evan Williams. He has been a revelation since switched to handicap chasing and after getting the nod from the trainer on Saturday; that will do for me.
The Festival Handicap is a pin-job and claims can be made for around a dozen of the protagonists however it could be worth chancing on Green Flag (2.40) for Lucinda Russell. He is another who has been much better suited to a stiff three miles and is another potential Scottish National horse. He ran well in defeat behind Annacotty in the Feltham, despite being unsuited by the track and can improve for this stronger emphasis on stamina.
Claims can be made for the trio of Vintage Star, King Massini and Holywell; the latter very well handicapped on his form with Victor Hewgo. His mark over hurdles is 12lb less than his new mark over the larger obstacles and he has undoubtedly been plotted up for a handicap at the festival.
1.30 - The Liquidator & Garde La Victoire
2.05 - Champagne Fever (Nap)
2.40 - Green Flag
3.20 - The New One (Nb)
4.00 - Quevega
4.40 - Midnight Prayer
5.15 - Buywise
For all the latest odds go to BetVictor.com
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