Thursday 4 April 2013

The Aintree, Grand National Festival 2013, Friday: Day Two

Last year, the second day of The Grand National was one of the most financially productive days of my punting life, and I went on the basis of backing the best horse, and backing them well. There are two superstars on display on the Friday, My Tent or Yours and Sprinter Sacre, and although heavily odds on, both should get the business done in style. Sprinter Sacre is quite frankly the most electric horse I have ever witnessed. He cruises through his races and pings fences with aplomb, although he has his stiffest test to date, Flemenstar and Cue Card going off in front should set the race up for him, and put it on a plate. Darlan finished second in The Supreme before winning at Aintree, and the combination of Nicky Henderson, AP McCoy and JP McManus can combine to take the Two Mile Novices Hurdle here again with My Tent or Yours. He was beaten at Cheltenham by a proven stayer in Champagne Fever, despite coming up cruising at the last, and on a flat track like Aintree, can gain deserved compensation.


Dynaste will be fancied for the Three Mile Novices Chase, but his record on good ground in the spring is woeful, and the form of the David Pipe stable is quite frankly, appalling. Super Duty looks like he wants a real test, not offered by Aintree, and Third Intention and Sea of Thunder aren’t good enough. Rocky Creek is the second favourite, but I just can’t warm to him, despite solid wins at Ascot and Warwick. He will probably be shorter due to the Ruby Walsh factor, on Ladies Day after all. The one with the best form in the book has been plying his trade over three mile handicaps, and that is Vino Griego for Gary and Jamie Moore. He has been incredibly progressive since being dropped out in his races, and will have a good pace to run at with Third Intention likely to set them off at a good clip. His form stacks up with the likes of Cappa Bleu, Rajdhani Express, Theatrical Star, and at 151, he only has 6lb to find with top rated Dynaste.


Although Ruby Walsh has deserted Lambro, he looks a potentially well handicapped based on his runs in better company, and could potentially chucked in, providing he thrives on The National fences of Liverpool. Paul Townend is a more than able deputy, and his record on the horse reads 121, he looks a lively player. As does Hector’s Choice, who has trickled down the handicap since his Grade 2 win at Cheltenham, around this time last year. The key to him is good ground, and being a course and distance winner at the track before, he holds a massive advantage over his rivals. Denis O’ Regan will drop him in and look to pick off his rivals, one by one. Tartak looks well handicapped on his old form, as does Little Josh, providing either of the old boy’s show their best form.


The Sefton looks ideally to be something of a steering job for At Fishers Cross, who cemented his position as the leading three mile novice hurdler when winning in the mud at Cheltenham, but he may be susceptible on better ground. It will be no worse than good-to-soft on the day, and he likes it dripping. And besides, I can’t have him at a short price. Master of The Sea would want it soft, as would Road to Riches, although he has more potential to improve. Just a Par lacks experience, and those rated below 130 have no chance. I backed Gevrey Chambertin at Cheltenham, and the way he lost the plot would be a big worry, not to mention the stable form. Our Vinnie could be a good each way bet if the money were to come for Charles Byrnes’s fellow. I’d be tempted to back both him and Uxizandre each way as value alternatives to those at the front of the market. Although only rated 135, the stable won the race last year and in good form, Wayne Hutchinson riding particularly well. He won a three mile novice hurdle last month, and put away for this, and the next two to come out have both won. He could be overpriced.


The two and a half mile handicap hurdle revolves around the principles of the market, and there are some horses with very lofty reputations that will be put on the line in the 4.50. Get Me Out of Here always runs well over the trip, especially on good ground, Cotton Mill is considered Champion Hurdle class, and Broadway Buffalo is unbeaten. The one to take out if Mesiter Eckhart for Alan King, who looks to possibly be the second string, Wayne Hutchinson sides with Manyriverstocross, but the former ran well on only his second start of the year, when a very game second in The Coral Cup. The stable are flying, and he ran with enough credit last time out to suggest he is improving with racing, only raised 4lb for that, the quicker ground could squeeze out further improvement. Another interesting runner relatively unexposed in handicap company is Minella Forfitness, again a supposed second string, with David Bass deputising for Barry Geraghty, who takes the ride on Khyber Kim. He was very impressive wearing down Zuider Zee and then Cheltenian, looking still quite green in the process. His latest win was over the extended two miles, and he needed all of it, to battle back on headed, and the extra half a mile is sure to suit.


The mares bumper looks a bit of a minefield on paper, but there are two stand out’s in the line-up. Molly’s A Diva has been very tough to win three bumpers in succession, mainly in bottomless ground; such was her win last time out at Sandown. She had some of these in behind, and Nick Schofield clearly gets on with her, she is respected. A more left field choice could be The Pirate’s Queen at a bigger price for the in form Alan King and Wayne Hutchinson. She is preferred by the jockey over Our Pollyana, and she had a taking debut, behind a smart Nicky Henderson trained West Wizard at Kempton. She gets 10lb from the bulk of the field and the King’s Theatre filly will have conditions to suit, she could be a big dark horse. Although, this is type of race to throw up a large upset. Be warned.


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