Sunday 27 January 2013

Cheltenham Day Two - Ante Post Thoughts

The second day is probably the most varied card of the week. Plenty of opportunities to make a few quid ante post here.


The National Hunt Chase

The first race is The National Hunt Chase, and I am very smug and pleased to have backed Teaforthree last year at 14/1, hopefully history repeats itself? A horse who looks an absolute out and out stayer is Vesper Bell for Willie Mullins. It is an incredible looking at the market, just how ludicrous some quotes are for horses that are unlikely to run, but 10/1 seems very fair. He is very unexposed, and beat potential Jewson horse Aupcharlie on debut, and has only had seven subsequent starts, the last winning a three mile chase at Punchestown, and looked to have plenty left in the tank, he’s the one for me. Looking at the market, very few look likely to run at the moment, the two obvious possibilities would be Keppols Hill and Rival D’Estruval. Godsmejudge is an interesting one, similar profile, steadily brought along, unexposed and an out and out stayer. At 20/1, he could be a lively outsider.


The Neptune Novices Hurdle

I’ve been a bit of a busy boy here, and already backed a few at decent prices. I flagged up The New One after winning at Cheltenham in October, and William Hill stuck their necks on the line, and went stand out 16/1 – it had to be taken. Even though he was chinned by At Fishers Cross last time out, he still sets a good standard around Prestbury Park, although his current price is a bit short for me. I backed Clondaw Kaempfer prior to his run in The Challow Hurdle, and think he got beaten by the ground more than anything. I’m on him at 16/1, and could be worth another nibble at 20/1, if the reports from Donald McCain are favourable. Pont Alexander and Taquin Du Seuil are two I am opposed, and the last one I have in the arsenal is Puffin Billy. He would be my initial prospect for next year’s RSA Chase, looks a lovely prospect and could be anything. He is the saver at 10/1. I still think The New One is the one to beat on all known form, although Puffin Billy carries maximum respect.


The RSA Chase

I pick two horses to follow based on their hurdling form, and how I think they will revert to fences, and generally come close when it comes to The RSA Chase, last year my two were Grands Crus (6/1) and Bobs Worth (10/1) ante post. The two I sided with this year are Boston Bob and Fingal Bay, both at 10/1. Fingal Bay proved to me to not back Phillip Hobbs horses, but I still like Boston Bob, and his chasing debut showed he has a natural flair for jumping. He wants three miles on good ground, and the 7/1 with Ladbrokes is tempting to back again. Dynaste won’t want a slog or a battle, and is skinny from an ante post perspective, I wouldn’t rule out David Pipe sending him to The Jewson. The rest all have muddling form, Our Father and Hadrians Approach look vulnerable. Willie Mullins will likely send Back in Focus and Aupcharlie elsewhere, and I don’t like Nicholls’s Rocky Creek, Unioniste and Sire Collognes. There isn’t an awful lot out there to beat.


The Queen Mother Champion Chase

Backed Sprinter Sacre in October at 5/4, and he will win by twelve lengths, Sizing Europe second if runs.


The Coral Cup


Again, not one from an ante post perspective, but those who appear well handicapped and likely to run at this moment in time look to be the David Pipe pair of Swing Bowler and Gevrey Chambertin. Both unbeaten hurdling this season, and look to have some lenient marks, with plenty of improvement to come from the stoutly bred duo.


The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

Minefield. To sum up. If you’ve had a bet in this, you are clearly in the know. Call Me Bubbles and Fatcatinthehat would be an interesting for Willie Mullins, who look likely to miss other races, and are down the pecking order of his juvenile hurdlers. Definitely not one to get involved in for me at such an early stage.

Champion Bumper

Another race I try to not get too involved in, as there is more guess work here than at a Derren Brown episode of cloak and dagger, I did have a nibble on Golantilla after his win at Cork at 10/1, but it’s a cautious one, even though he has a massive reputation, and a cracking turn of foot. Moyle Park has form tied in with Blackmail, and both could be lively ones come closer to the day.



Best Bet - Boston Bob
Next Best - The New One


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

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