Wednesday 14 November 2012

Paddy Power Gold Cup

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The Paddy Power Gold Cup is iconic in stature as the real start to the jumps season, with Cheltenham’s Open Meeting being three days of pure unadulterated joy. It may sound a little extreme, but having to sit through claimers at Catterick, sellers at Salisbury and minefield lady riders handicaps at Pontefract makes sitting through the best racing in the world oh so that much more satisfying. I had better move on before this preview turns into an erotic thriller. Fifty Shades of Hay? Moving on.


The Paddy Power is a race that has been synonymous with the name Pipe. It has nothing to do with the handheld smoking variety, but the lineage of a genius trainer Martin and his son David, who finally won this race since taking the reins from his old man with Great Endeavour. He did so for the owner and jockey that powered Martin Pipe to his oh so many championships, the famous blue and green silks of David Johnson under Timmy Murphy. They also won with Celestial Gold and Our Vic, two of Martin’s eight wins, and that makes the ante post favourite Grands Crus that much more of a standout. Trained by David Pipe and ridden by Tom Scudamore he won The Feltham Chase in a time quicker than The King George beating subsequent RSA Chase and Charlie Hall Chase winners Bobs Worth and Siliviano Conti. Off a mark of 157 he will prove very difficult to beat.


The main rivals are from a host of top profile trainers, none more so than Al Ferof of Paul Nicholls who comes with a massive reputation. He is one of the many progeny of Dom Alco, as is Neptune Collognes and Grands Crus, and is entitled to thrive stepped up in trip, yet to run beyond two miles. He will be seen as eventually a Gold Cup horse, and if he is to eventually step up to such lofty heights, he would want to give a good account here off a mark of 159. Aerial isn’t held in anywhere near the same regard, and at just 4lb lower, doesn’t strike much appeal for the same stable. Tanks for That has a good record around the track, and won first time out last year, but looks down the pecking order of Nicky Henderson, with decent money coming for Nadiya De La Vega and Triolo D’Alene in the last couple of weeks, although neither offer too much appeal but are obviously respected, trainers don’t come any shrewder. Who said Barney Curley…


Hunt Ball
was the fairytale story of last year, going up 89lbs to win a listed chase at the festival, and finish third in an Aintree Grade 1, but this isn’t a Disney film, and all fairytales have to end somewhere. Despite the bellowing of owner Anthony Knott, the mark of 157 seems very tough, and I expect the bubble to severely burst.

Those at the top of the weights look to have it all to do and are plenty exposed, with Poquelin being a course and distance specialist, but carrying 11-12 is a very tough ask. Wishfull Thinking was well fancied for this last year, but folded tamely late on, and the trip may be as far as he wants to go, not to mention his questionable jumping. Similar trip worries would take out the likes of Forpaddydeplasterer who is a two miler and proven stayers such as Quantitativeeasing, Fingeronthepulse, Questions Answered, Casey Top and The Disengager all look to want further and a race such as this may catch them out for pace. The only one that could appreciate the drop back down in trip is Calgary Bay having his first run for Mick Channon since taking over from Henrietta Knight, and has had two first time out winners already for the yard.

Gilbarry and Jamsie Hall look to have a job on down the bottom of the weights, exposed against classier types and have it all to do, as does Kingsmere, who is yet to run outside of novice company for Henry Daly. Divers and Walk On are two who will be perfectly tuned up with Walk On in particular being a lot of interest. He goes well fresh, and is likely to love the ground, trip and racing style; trainer Alan King is particularly sweet on him. The same can be said about Divers for Ferdy Murphy, who finished a solid third here in the race last year off a 6lb lower mark. Timmy Murphy is a significant jockey booking, and had a tune up here at the meeting last month and is following his preparation for the race last year. Michael Flips completes the line-up, and is one who will appreciate conditions, but the stable form of Andy Turnell would be something of a worry.


So there we have it, all twenty two runners, and now stick my trusty pin in. Grands Crus obviously sets a significantly strong standard, but given the supposed ‘good things’ of Long Run and Mon Parrain in consecutive years, I seem him placing but not having everything go in his favour. The stable form of Alan King, and his praise of WALKON makes him looks a very good price at around the 8/1 mark and running off a mark of 143, when top rated on Racing Post Ratings means he strikes as having a very attractive price. He won first time out last season beating good horse Zaynar and Notus De La Tour in a hot novice chase over the same trip, and also has winning course form to his name. I expect him to edge out Grands Crus in the finish, with Divers guided into third under Timmy Murphy and Calgary Bay staying on for fourth en route to The Hennessy.


1. Walkon
2. Grands Crus
3. Divers
4. Calgary Bay


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

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