The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual is the final swansong for the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, and is usually the ‘Death or Glory’ moment for punters chasing the week long losses, invariably ending in a bloody and gory finale. This get out of jail opportunity consists of a twenty-one runner handicap chase over the extended two miles, and is one aimed at by the late trainers son, Nicky Henderson. The Master of Seven Barrows has had a record breaking Cheltenham with wins for Simonsig, Finians Rainbow, Bobs Worth, Sprinter Sacre and Riverside Theatre, all in Grade 1 races. He has been plotting this race for months, and has SIX of the current entries, all with strong chances.
Anquetta has Andrew Tinkler on board, and was impressive in a Listed Handicap Chase at Ascot. He has since lost his way though, falling in his subsequent run, and finishing last of ten in a valuable chase at Doncaster and can be overlooked. Novice chaser Eradicate finished his hurdling campaign with a Grade 3 win at Haydock, and in novice chases, has two wins and a nose defeat. He finished 23 lengths behind Al Ferof behind Al Ferof in the Henry VIII Novice Chase, and seemed to struggle under a strong pace. Leading jockey Barry Geraghty has opted for Tanks for That, and he looked to have a bright season on the cards with a win at the Cheltenham Open Meeting in a valuable seventeen runner handicap chase. He has struggled since the 9lb hike in the weights, and prefers running fresh. Kid Cassidy has AP on board and was potentially Arkle class prior to his electrocution at Newbury. He has won two novice chases since falling first time out, and although good efforts, he seems to be too poorly priced for his handicap mark. Similarly Bellvano, who won at Kelso, beating decent yardstick Kings Grey. He won on the bridle, and goes without a penalty, but the form of his runs isn’t working out, and he looks to be someone who doesn’t find a lot under pressure. French Opera looks to be on his way back, since returning behind Sprinter Sacre in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Sprinter Sacre beat him by six lengths, on the bridle, but that was shown to be no fluke, sparkling in the Arkle. French Opera is a Grade 2 winning chaser and has a good record at Cheltenham, including two victories. He looks very interesting.
Away from the Henderson stable, there are four horses out of the handicap, which immediately gives them a large negative. It is rare for Ferdy Murphy to not have a winner at Cheltenham, so De Boitron would be of interest, with the excellent and in form Lucy Alexander on board. The other three horses look to be there to make up the numbers with Free World, Idarah & Norther Bay carrying 1lb, 2lb and 4lb out of the handicap respectively.
The Twiston-Davies stable seem very badly out of form, with one solitary place in The Cockney Mackem running on for second in the Byrne Group Plate, but without never really threatening, which would make it difficult to tip up Astracad. He has run well this season, in particular at Cheltenham, running 7 lengths behind Al Ferof in a novices chase, before winning a Grade 2 handicap chase in November. He has been kept fresh and could go close. Similarly, the Tizzard's have had a quiet week, which would mean Oisea Du Nuit is opposable, despite his win in this last year, and being on a 7lb higher mark.
The Irish have a wretched reputation in the race, with only two wins in the last fourteen years and only four wins overall in its sixty-two year history, an unbelievable stat for a nation who consumer Cheltenham during the festival. That would make it even more difficult for Lucky William for Tom Cooper and Silveardagh for Edward O’ Grady even that more unlikely.
That leaves Kumbeshwar, Toubab, King Edmund, and the rest of the field to delve through, and none scream ‘winner’. The King, Gordon and Nicholls stable despite all of the hype seem to have lost form at the wrong time, which would rule them out. Renard is up 9lb for his win last time out, and is in the mercy of the handicapper. Cornas ran a good fifth in this in 2010, but apart from that has a poor record at Cheltenham, beaten by a collective 60 lengths in three other running. He has a high weight, but wouldn’t be out of the ordinary for him to post a good performance.
The only other horse not mentioned is Tara Royal for the in form Donald McCain yard, and as cliché as it may sound, if this horse was well backed, I would be even more appealed to it. The stable landed a touch when winning the Scottish Champion Chase with him at Musselburgh and he seemed to appreciate the strong pace and good ground, both he will find to his liking at Cheltenham. Ultimate finished down the field that day, and now has a 6lb swing, but the Brian Ellison charge could be out of his depth here.
Tara Royal and French Opera look the two most appealing at the prices, and have come good at the right time. Both stables are enjoying exceptional weeks, and have come into the race on the back of terrific runs, in good company, and further more will like the strong pace mainly only seen at Cheltenham. Cornas and the JP McManus could fill out the places, if ridden to their style of running.
1. French Opera
2. Tara Royal
3. Kid Cassidy
4. Bellvano
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
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