The eagerly awaited first classic of the season are this weekend at the home of flat racing, Newmarket, where the star two year olds have the chance to fulfil their potential and contest the 1000 and 2000 Guineas. The time for discussion is over, as the anticipation swells into action with the QIPCO 2000 Guineas on Saturday, and the QIPCO 1000 Guineas on Sunday.
The 2000 Guineas market has been dominated all year by the Henry Cecil trained FRANKEL, who ended his year, still unbeaten, and being crowned European two year old thoroughbred of the year. He will face a maximum of 14 rivals come Saturday, that is expected to be fewer, given how hard the ground will be, with very minimal rainfall over the last few weeks, meaning ground is expected to be good, good to firm in places. This however would post no problem whatsoever to the superstar Frankel, who demonstrated that he had developed on over the winter, winning his prep run well on similar ground in the Greenham Stakes. It is very hard to oppose such a superstar, and would be vindication for trainer Henry Cecil, who this weekend last year, had a Guineas win stolen from him in the steward’s room. I think he will win, and win easily, going on to have a fantastic three year old career. The value could also lie in the Godolphin horse CASAMENTO, formerly trained by Mick Halford. He was mightily impressive last year when winning the Racing Post Trophy under Frankie Dettori, and is expected to go on to run in the Derby. Frankie could ride him or his stablemate Saamid, who was disappointing behind Frankel in the Dewhurst. Should he choose Casamento, which I expect him to do, see the price shorten, from its current price of 16/1.
The QIPCO 1000 Guineas is a lot more open affair, with the current favourite, the Freddie Head trained MOONLIGHT CLOUD being the favourite at 9/2. A very open race, with lots of unanswered questions, and very few answers. The favourite Moonlight Cloud is at the top of the market, due to a very promising prep run when defeating her good rival Hellborine. The George Strawbridge owned filly is definitely worth a punt at her current price, and has the best form in the book behind Misty For Me. The recent run of Moonlight Cloud has proven she has wintered well, and is the horse with the best passage through to the race. Misty For Me was most impressive winning her two Group 1 races, one of which, when Memory blotted her copybook when was a well beaten favourite in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. However the vibes of the Aidan O’ Brien horse have been poor, and she has gradually slided on the machines, with her price now currently being 12/1 from 7/1 just a month ago, which could hint that she has not wintered well, may not like the fast ground, or is not ready for the day. Either way, it would be wise to avoid her in this instance. The other highly touted juvenile is MEMORY, winning of the Albany and Cherry Hinton stakes, en route to being crowned Champion two year old filly. Her only defeat came when finishing fourth at the Curragh in the Moyglare (G1) race, when she was never going well, and clearly wrong on the day. Word is that she has thrived over the winter, and did an impressive piece of work on the gallops at Newbury. She was champion 2 year old filly for a reason, and with the Hannon team starting the season so strong, she has to be persisted with.
2000 Guineas – Frankel 5pt Win 8/15 & Casamento 1pt EW 16/1
1000 Guineas – Moonlight Cloud 2pt Win 9/2 & Memory 1pt EW 6/1
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
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