State The Grand National Ante Post Play
The Grand National is the world’s most famous race and is also the richest National Hunt race in the racing calendar. The Aintree spectacle is a gruelling 4 miles 4 furlongs and provides a stiff stamina test. Jumping ability is also challenged with some famous fences such as Bechers Brook and The Chair enjoying widespread, and much deserved, notoriety.
The weights were announced for the 2011 renewal last week so it seems a good time to take a look at the runners to try and pinpoint some possible value in the ante-post market.
Last year’s race was won by Don’t Push It, who ended the National jinx for champion jockey AP McCoy. McCoy had never won the race before in 16 attempts, and it was the one race missing on his illustrious CV. Trainer Jonjo O’ Neill had also been unsuccessful during his career as a jockey, failing to win despite numerous attempts. Don’t Push It won well last year, and for that win has been given a rise of 5lb in the weights. The only horse to win back to back Grand Nationals in living memory was the legendary Red Rum, and with talk of AP McCoy not committing to ride him again in this year’s renewal, I’m prepared to overlook Don’t Push It this time around.
An interesting contender from last year’s Grand National field is the Evan Williams trained STATE OF PLAY. He finished 4th in 2009 and followed that up with a 3rd in 2010, staying on tremendously well towards the end of the race, so stamina is a huge plus. The course and the fences are unique and, like Cheltenham, horses either take to Aintree and thrive, or don’t adapt and find it difficult to get round.
State of Play has been given a weight of 10st-6lbs which seems to be generous enough. His 4th in 2009 was off 10-9 and for last year’s 3rd place finish he carried 11-0, so this bodes well for his chances. He goes well fresh and Evan Williams has said this has been his main aim all season.
Another fantastic prospect is the Ferdy Murphy trained BIG FELLA THANKS. The horse was named after Harry Findlay’s prize-winning greyhound and the 9 year old was going very well before tiring in the latter stages last year. He finished 6th in 2009, so again is the sort who relishes the jumping test Aintree provides. For his placed effort last year he has been increased 5lb in the weights, but still appears to be set to race off a very reasonable looking mark of 11-1.
He will be in the optimum age grouping and will be better, fitter and stronger than he’s been for his last two runs. He’s had mixed preparation this season, uncharacteristically falling in the Hennessy, finishing second behind promising chaser Hey Big Spender and, most recently, finishing 4th in the Ascot Chase. He should go well again, and looks a solid each-way shout.
Other contenders worthy of consideration include the Willie Mullins’ trained THE MIDNIGHT CLUB. The trainer earmarked this horse for the 2011 Grand National way back in late 2009 and knows what it takes to win this, having famously won the race in 2005 with Hedgehunter. The Midnight Club finished a good second in the competitive Theystes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January, and is expected to have one more run before going to Aintree.
Another trainer with a Grand National winning pedigree is Gordon Elliot, and won in 2007 with the 33/1 shot Silver Birch. He trains the somewhat quirky BACKSTAGE, another horse allocated a nice racing weight (10-12). Backstage was going very well during the 2010 running before being brought down by a loose horse, so can be deemed rather unlucky and is surely worth another chance.
Ante Post Grand National Tips:
State of Play 3pts EW 25/1
Big Fella Thanks 2pts EW 20/1
Backstage 1pt EW 20/1
The Midnight Club 1pt EW 16/1
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