Showing posts with label Racing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Racing. Show all posts

Wednesday, 18 July 2012

Wednesday Night Racing at Sandown Park

Sandown host an evening card, and although it struggles to meet the standard it sets with The Brigadier Gerard Stakes evening, with stars the calibre of Carlton House, Sir Prancelot, Opinion Poll under the bright lights, there is still a strong card in comparison to the equine class on offer this afternoon. Richard Hannon and Richard have two strong runners in the form of Dominate and Law Enforcement, and the stable are in good nick, having doubles at Newbury on Friday and Saturday, but they are both likely to be painfully short in the market and I’d rather be a layer than a backer.

I will gladly take on the favourite in the first race. Dominate is a well bred and well related colt, who ran well first time out at Windsor, but I would be sceptical backing him at odds on. Instead RED EXPLORER makes plenty appeal, especially on pedigree. A son of Henrythenavigator and from a dam who has produced a multiple winner, ran a solid second on debut, staying on well over five furlongs, and it is interesting that he is kept at the minimum distance. He was well supported in the market that day, going off the clear 11/4 favourite, he must be doing something right at home. The third that day has since come out at won at Beverley, and at the prices, it has to be Red Explorer.

Picture Dealer is another short priced favourite, primarily based on the absolute shocker Tom Queally gave him at Doncaster last time out on his handicap beau. Blood is thicker than water, and it helps when your son is the best jockey in the game, and Ryan is in the saddle this time round. Given the manner of how he stayed on at Town Moor, (how apt), I would be dropping him down in trip. He ran on strongly over six furlongs on good ground, and given he won his maiden over six furlongs on soft, the son of Royal Applause, will be fine on the ground, but will seemingly want further, anything up to a mile. I find it very perplexing, and a horse I tipped up last time out seeking the hatrick makes much more appeal in KHUBALA. The stable are very shrewd and are having a fruitful time of things at Ed Dunlop’s yard; enjoying a 14% strike rate, and a rare profitable season to £1 stake on the turf. He has only sent two horses to Sandown all season, so that again is another plus, and the manner of his last two victories have been rather impressive. Up 7lb for his last win, and 12lb for the two, may perhaps slow him down, but I have a lot of faith that the Acclamation colt is still going great guns and on the road to securing some black type.

Haatefina and Law Enforcement are the market principles in the 19:00 maiden stakes, and both have strong claims. Haatefina ran on strongly behind leading 1000 Guineas fancy Maureen who subsequently went close in the Cherry Hinton Stakes at Newmarket. Law Enforcement is a well bred and well respected colt for the Hannon and Hughes team who have a good record in this race, winning it last year with Mister Music. The Henry Candy stable aren’t exactly firing at the minute otherwise Beroni would be somewhat of interest. That leaves a rather lacklustre field and it could be worth taking a chance on DANCE WITH DRAGONS for the Paul Cole team. They are yet to have a two year old winner this season, but started off in dire form and are generally coming round. A couple of winners in the last week or so and they are generally operating on a 40% place strike rate, when you consider their runners are overpriced, they could be a nice stable to stay on the side of. The colt’s fourth first time out at Windsor was a respectable effort and he is entitled to come on for that run.


DEBATING SOCIETY runs for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, and after a particularly below par start to the season, they seem to have found some form, just in the nick of time before with the King George on Saturday. He has had only nine runners in the last week, but an amazing five winners, a staggering 55% strike rate. Debating Society has been running with credit, and just not seemingly getting the breaks. The Invincible Spirit colt ran a solid fourth at Windsor, only losing by three lengths. That was his first foray into handicapping, and out of five rivals, three have come out and won since. He followed that with a good second at Kempton, and now tried over a mile and a quarter on soft turf, would look to eek out even further improvement still.

CELLIST ran the most peculiar of races last time out on the all weather when shedding her maiden tag. It really has to be seen to be believed, check out the free video replays AtTheRaces have on their website. The gelded son of Halling was off the bit with about half a mile to go, and he was really struggling. But then when the penny dropped, the penny dropped and he absolutely flew. He is stepped up from a mile and a half to a mile and three quarters and although there are strong contenders from the Cumani, Cecil and Osbourne stables, I think he has a lot more to come from this stayer in the making.

5.55 Sandown – Red Explorer
6.30 Sandown – Khubala
7.00 Sandown – Dance with Dragons
8.05 Sandown – Debating Society (Nap)
8.35 Sandown – Cellist

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports


Friday, 13 April 2012

Grand National 2012 at Aintree Preview

The Grand National is a strong a puzzle as ever before, and with fourty runners, and a wide open field on good ground, and with money coming for a number of horses in the last two weeks, and conditions changing by the hour, it looks a tricky one. It looks to be good, good to soft in places, which immediately throw out the mudlarks, and soft ground horses, such as Cappa Bleu, West End Rocker, Killyglen, and Giles Cross. Then draw a line through the older horses, specifically anything over aged eleven, which again rules out Hello Bud, In Compliance, Vic Venturi, State of Play, Mon Mome and Black Apalachi. Now we are down to 30. I don’t like horses who are due to go down in the weights, and are official losing weight, which takes out a sizeable few, with Deep Purple, Tatenen, According To Pete, On His Own, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, Postmaster, Viking Blond and Neptune Equester. Down to 20.

It is hard to look at the long shots, with modern day Grand National going to classier horses, with the average mark of a runner in the National up 10lb since 2000. That would take out Arbor Supreme, Midnight Haze, Alfa Beat, Quiscover Fontaine, and Weird Al. Shortlist down to 15.

The favourite is Synchronised, but off top weight, and on the back off a tough season and a Gold Cup and a Lexus, his iffy jumping may get found out. The Irish staying chase division looks poor this season, which would rule out The Midnight Club, Seabass, Becauseicouldntsee, Organisedconfusion and Rare Bob. Down to 10.

Planet of Sound looks to be poorly handicapped on his two runs in the Hennessy and the Racing Plus Chase, and is yet to run over three miles two furlongs. Off 11”5, he is carrying more than enough weight, as is Neptune Collognes off 11”6. Always Right has travelled well twice in staying chases before finding little late on, and has doubts. As does Sunnyhillboy, who was laid out for the Kim Muir, with this as an after thought. Junior looked to be a strong runner for this, but with the recent drift in the market and sketchy jumping last time out at Doncaster, he is a worry. Arbor Supreme is the third string of the JP contingent and has show little this season. Down to 4.

The four to focus on are Ballabriggs, Shakalakaboomboom, Chicago Grey, and Calgary Bay. BALLABRIGGS has been steadily planned and pencilled in for his defence of his Grand National crown since his win last year, and warmed up with eye-catching vigour in his return at Kelso last month. He looks to have added more definition, and jumped with remarkable fluency. Given the yards current form, the record of previous winners in the race, and the lack of potential stayers in the race, he looks the each way bet to nothing in the race. He is the best bet of the race. Similarly SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM has the same profile Ballabriggs had going into the race last year, promising stayer chaser, laid out for the race. He had a nice prep last month over hurdles, and has a protected mark since his Cheltenham win and Doncaster second. He ran second behind CALGARY BAY who has always been held in high regard, and was a faller here last year. With a stable and horse back for form, he could run a big race if managing to stay the trip. A horse I ear marked for this race after his Cheltenham win last year is CHICAGO GREY for the Gordon Elliot team. He won the four mile race, on good ground, with the second horse Beshabar going on to win the Scottish National. He has a handy weight, ideal ground and a good jockey on board. He has run over inadequate trips and races to protect his mark, and runs well with a small break. He has to be respected.

Ballabriggs (Ew) - NAP
Calgary Bay (Ew)
Chicago Grey (Ew)
Shakalakaboomboom (Ew)

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

Racing Saturday at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle: February 25th 2012

Racing on Saturday will provide a real test, with cards at Newcastle and Chepstow, where the severity of their trademark stiff finishes will be severely increased because of the anticipated heavy going. There is also racing from Kempton Park, with The Adonis Hurdle and the Racing Plus Chase being the highlights.

Kempton have had to tweak Saturday’s card due to some rearranged races. They have the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle as well as the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle. My focus will be the Racing Plus Chase, won last year by Quinz for the Phillip Hobbs yard, and they have a strong chance once more with ante post favourite Planet of Sound.

Three miles on a flat track usually means Nacarat is there or thereabouts, and although he should run into a place, it is hard to see him winning. The Tizzard stable had five wins inside an hour last Saturday and their runners Cannington Brook and Mount Oscar have to be respected. Deep Purple looks a classy sort off top weight, but I feel he stays all day and would want further ultimately. By process of elimination the answer could lie with FRUITY O’ ROONEY for the in-form Gary Moore yard.

He won a Class 3 handicap chase over course and distance on 27th December, meeting trouble in jumping throughout but still beating subsequent winner Midnight Appeal by four lengths. He followed up that win with a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind potential Grand National horses Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom. That was a fair effort and he could be a terrific each way price come the day.

The Betfred Eider Chase is a gruelling four miles and promises to test the stamina of the most hardened stayer. Horses generally need to have won over 3 ½ miles previous, and recent four miles Kelso winner EYRE SQUARE ticks all the boxes. His win in the Borders National was mightily impressive and, on softish ground, highlighted his versatility. He was given too much to do when dropping down to 3 miles in another handicap chase, when up 5lb, and jockey James Reveley can make amends here. The Ferdy Murphy trained Negus De Beaumont and Peter Niven trained Posh Bird are dangers.

AP McCoy opts to ride at Chepstow rather than Newcastle and Kempton and he has two strong chances. The first is TEAFORTHREE who has shown glimpses of class, resulting in an official rating of 146. His novice chase win on heavy ground over course and distance has led to him being aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and the drop down in grade from the Feltham Chase at Kempton should provide him with a nice prep run in the build up to that.

McCoy’s other possibility is CHESTNUT BEN, who looks to put aside a disappointing run when unseating last time out. Prior to that he had won a good two mile handicap chase at Hereford by six lengths, on soft ground, in eye-catching fashion. Providing he has a clean round, he should go very close on a workable mark.

3.05 Kempton – Fruity O’ Rooney (Ew)
3.25 Newcastle – Eyre Square (Ew)
2.40 Chepstow – Teaforthree (Nap)
4.55 Chepstow – Chestnut Ben

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports

Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Weekend Tipping - Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury and Hennessy Gold Cup Day at Leopardstown

Newbury on Saturday is being billed as ‘Super Saturday’ and it looks like it might live up to its name with the Denman Chase and the Game Spirit Chase featuring. On top of this last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkander goes for the Betfair Hurdle, where he is a hot favourite. Ireland goes toe-to-toe on the class front with a whopping four Grade Ones at Leopardstown on Sunday.

SPRINTER SACRE is a horse I have harped on about for months now and I got on early in the Arkle ante-post market. I fully expect him to rout his opponents in the Game Spirit Chase on this, his last stop before Cheltenham. The race has been good to trainer Nicky Henderson and his winner from last year, French Opera, is also entered although the ground will dictate whether he’ll run or not. Sprinter Sacre is the top rated horse in the line up following his demolition of Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Cue Card will make the running and will put up a good fight but Sprinter Sacre is an top class and it’d be no surprise were he a multiple winner of championship races in years to come.

They say always forgive a horse one bad run and I’m happy to apply this tenet to EDUCATED EVANS (2.20 Warwick). He tipped up last time out when seeking the hatrick but had run in the most bizarre fashion. He would barely start and had to be really got after by Sam Twiston-Davies to get going. He then badly blundered at both the first two fences before being pulled up. If that was a hiccup and he runs to the form of the previous two runs I think he will give a good account of himself here.

The Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.

The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.

Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.

Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later, and got out battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb, but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.

2.20 Warwick – Educated Evans
3.10 Newbury – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
3.45 Newbury – Empire Levant (Ew) & Third Intention (Ew)

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner - @JJMSports

Monday, 6 February 2012

Midweek Talking Turf - Wednesday February 8th at Kempton and Lingfield

A weekend of disappointment, with all National Hunt cards being abandoned. I turned my attentions to the range of other sporting options including Six Nations Rugby, Super League, Premier League football, World Cup of darts, German Masters snooker and the Superbowl, so it wasn’t all bad.

With the weather unrelenting, we’ll focus most of our attention on Kempton where they have an eight race card on Wednesday. There are meetings at Carlisle, Lingfield and Ludlow, although it doesn’t look too good for the jumps cards, with Market Rasen and Sedgefield both already being abandoned on Tuesday.

LADY CAPRICE is a horse who has been on the upgrade since joining Jane Chapple-Hyam, winning back to back handicaps at Wolverhampton and Lingfield, and she can complete the hatrick in the 3.25 at Kempton. Although up 13lb for her two wins, she is 3 out of 9 running over 5 furlongs and looks to be on the upgrade.

SATWA LAIRD is a horse who has been unfortunate in terms of living up to his potential in the last year or so, but showed sparks of life in his last two starts for David Simcock. He himself is in a rich vein of form, with ten runners since the turn of the year, four have been winners, whilst a further three places. Satwa Laird is the best well off at the weights, and with retained jockey Jamie Spencer on board, he should win with a shade of comfort.

Discoverer is an interesting horse for the John Gosden in the 4.30, the best race on the card, a class four handicap for three year olds. He has ran twice, showing promise on his maiden run, finishing behind the promising Bronze Angel, who franked the form next time out. The second and fifth both won next time out, so there was excitement when it came to his next run, winning a six runner maiden at the prohibitive odds of 1/7. He did the bare minimum, this protecting his handicap mark, and gets a very nice mark of 78 to play with. It is also a booster that each of the trainers last five runners have been placed at the very worst, with two winners, and has a 24% strike rate at Kempton Park.

An eye-catching booking in the 7.35 is Jamie Spencer riding CATCHY TUNE for the David Brown yard, who looks thrown into a Class 6 handicap after three runs in decent maidens over the summer. The chestnut colt could be anything, so a market check would be advisable. If the money comes that could further enhance his claims.

3.25 Kempton – Lady Caprice (Nab)
3.55 Kempton – Satwa Laird (Nb)
4.35 Kempton – Discoverer
5.00 Kempton – Catchy Tune

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @JJMSports