The Grand National is a strong a puzzle as ever before, and with fourty runners, and a wide open field on good ground, and with money coming for a number of horses in the last two weeks, and conditions changing by the hour, it looks a tricky one. It looks to be good, good to soft in places, which immediately throw out the mudlarks, and soft ground horses, such as Cappa Bleu, West End Rocker, Killyglen, and Giles Cross. Then draw a line through the older horses, specifically anything over aged eleven, which again rules out Hello Bud, In Compliance, Vic Venturi, State of Play, Mon Mome and Black Apalachi. Now we are down to 30. I don’t like horses who are due to go down in the weights, and are official losing weight, which takes out a sizeable few, with Deep Purple, Tatenen, According To Pete, On His Own, Treacle, Tharawaat, Swing Bill, Postmaster, Viking Blond and Neptune Equester. Down to 20.
It is hard to look at the long shots, with modern day Grand National going to classier horses, with the average mark of a runner in the National up 10lb since 2000. That would take out Arbor Supreme, Midnight Haze, Alfa Beat, Quiscover Fontaine, and Weird Al. Shortlist down to 15.
The favourite is Synchronised, but off top weight, and on the back off a tough season and a Gold Cup and a Lexus, his iffy jumping may get found out. The Irish staying chase division looks poor this season, which would rule out The Midnight Club, Seabass, Becauseicouldntsee, Organisedconfusion and Rare Bob. Down to 10.
Planet of Sound looks to be poorly handicapped on his two runs in the Hennessy and the Racing Plus Chase, and is yet to run over three miles two furlongs. Off 11”5, he is carrying more than enough weight, as is Neptune Collognes off 11”6. Always Right has travelled well twice in staying chases before finding little late on, and has doubts. As does Sunnyhillboy, who was laid out for the Kim Muir, with this as an after thought. Junior looked to be a strong runner for this, but with the recent drift in the market and sketchy jumping last time out at Doncaster, he is a worry. Arbor Supreme is the third string of the JP contingent and has show little this season. Down to 4.
The four to focus on are Ballabriggs, Shakalakaboomboom, Chicago Grey, and Calgary Bay. BALLABRIGGS has been steadily planned and pencilled in for his defence of his Grand National crown since his win last year, and warmed up with eye-catching vigour in his return at Kelso last month. He looks to have added more definition, and jumped with remarkable fluency. Given the yards current form, the record of previous winners in the race, and the lack of potential stayers in the race, he looks the each way bet to nothing in the race. He is the best bet of the race. Similarly SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM has the same profile Ballabriggs had going into the race last year, promising stayer chaser, laid out for the race. He had a nice prep last month over hurdles, and has a protected mark since his Cheltenham win and Doncaster second. He ran second behind CALGARY BAY who has always been held in high regard, and was a faller here last year. With a stable and horse back for form, he could run a big race if managing to stay the trip. A horse I ear marked for this race after his Cheltenham win last year is CHICAGO GREY for the Gordon Elliot team. He won the four mile race, on good ground, with the second horse Beshabar going on to win the Scottish National. He has a handy weight, ideal ground and a good jockey on board. He has run over inadequate trips and races to protect his mark, and runs well with a small break. He has to be respected.
Ballabriggs (Ew) - NAP
Calgary Bay (Ew)
Chicago Grey (Ew)
Shakalakaboomboom (Ew)
Showing posts with label McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label McCain. Show all posts
Friday, 13 April 2012
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Midweek Tipping - February 1st - Newcastle, Ludlow and Leicester
Calgary Bay warmed the cockles of this perennial old man’s heart on Saturday, and bagged The Yorkshireman another 12/1 winner for his loyal followers. There are three National Hunt fixtures on Wednesday (1st Feb) and I have spotted something worth backing at all three venues.
Firstly going to Newcastle and a horse I was clued up about from a very good source: the recent recruit for the Donald McCain yard BOURNE. This fellow formerly raced on the flat for Luca Cumani and has shown great promise over obstacles. He won his maiden hurdle in fine style, keeping on well over 2 miles 3 furlongs in the soft ground at Catterick. He disappointed next time out over two miles on better ground in a Class 3 novices hurdle, when never really travelling. The form of his first win has worked out well, with the second horse Into Wain winning two subsequent hurdle races.
We’ve had plenty success following James and Keith Reveley this season and they have a runner at the meeting too, with DANCING ART looking to go better than last time when perhaps an unlucky runner up after just failing by a short head. James takes the leg up this time instead of Richie McGrath. Running here over two and a half miles, this could bring the best out of him and, off bottom weight in the handicap, should go well.
MOSCOW CHANCER runs for the in form Tom George stable at Leicester. The stable are currently operating at a 27% strike rate since the New Year and are clearly going all guns, with both Baby Mix and Ut De Sivola in the reckoning for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Moscow Chancer has gradually improved this season, with his best effort being a creditable third over course and distance 22 days ago. He should come on for the run (he was having his first run for 76 days last time out). The well bred gelding could throw in a good run in a race where he is chucked in on a very workable handicap mark.
Staying at Leicester, BIG EASY hacked up last Saturday, confirming market confidence when beating a good field at Doncaster, including hat-trick seeking Corkage. He runs here with a 7lb penalty but is due to go up 14lb next time. Providing he has eaten up and Saturday’s race has not taken too much out of him, he should be somewhat of a penalty kick under stable deputy Tom O’ Brien.
The final selection runs at Ludlow where our recently tipped up winner for the J P Ferguson yard, MONARCHS WAY, looks to build on a promising hurdling career which has seen him perform with credit in all starts since joining the stable. He won his debut foray into handicaps, getting up late on to win by a neck. Raised 8lb for that, he still ran well next time out, finishing fourth of fifteen runners at Warwick, losing by 3 ½ lengths in what looks on paper like a good race. He is still well handicapped, and jockey Mr J Owen has a good record in these amateur only events.
1.20 Newcastle – Bourne (Nap)
2.50 Newcastle – Dancing Art (Nb)
3.00 Leicester – Moscow Chancer
3.30 Leicester – Big Easy
3.40 Ludlow – Monarchs Way
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports
Firstly going to Newcastle and a horse I was clued up about from a very good source: the recent recruit for the Donald McCain yard BOURNE. This fellow formerly raced on the flat for Luca Cumani and has shown great promise over obstacles. He won his maiden hurdle in fine style, keeping on well over 2 miles 3 furlongs in the soft ground at Catterick. He disappointed next time out over two miles on better ground in a Class 3 novices hurdle, when never really travelling. The form of his first win has worked out well, with the second horse Into Wain winning two subsequent hurdle races.
We’ve had plenty success following James and Keith Reveley this season and they have a runner at the meeting too, with DANCING ART looking to go better than last time when perhaps an unlucky runner up after just failing by a short head. James takes the leg up this time instead of Richie McGrath. Running here over two and a half miles, this could bring the best out of him and, off bottom weight in the handicap, should go well.
MOSCOW CHANCER runs for the in form Tom George stable at Leicester. The stable are currently operating at a 27% strike rate since the New Year and are clearly going all guns, with both Baby Mix and Ut De Sivola in the reckoning for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Moscow Chancer has gradually improved this season, with his best effort being a creditable third over course and distance 22 days ago. He should come on for the run (he was having his first run for 76 days last time out). The well bred gelding could throw in a good run in a race where he is chucked in on a very workable handicap mark.
Staying at Leicester, BIG EASY hacked up last Saturday, confirming market confidence when beating a good field at Doncaster, including hat-trick seeking Corkage. He runs here with a 7lb penalty but is due to go up 14lb next time. Providing he has eaten up and Saturday’s race has not taken too much out of him, he should be somewhat of a penalty kick under stable deputy Tom O’ Brien.
The final selection runs at Ludlow where our recently tipped up winner for the J P Ferguson yard, MONARCHS WAY, looks to build on a promising hurdling career which has seen him perform with credit in all starts since joining the stable. He won his debut foray into handicaps, getting up late on to win by a neck. Raised 8lb for that, he still ran well next time out, finishing fourth of fifteen runners at Warwick, losing by 3 ½ lengths in what looks on paper like a good race. He is still well handicapped, and jockey Mr J Owen has a good record in these amateur only events.
1.20 Newcastle – Bourne (Nap)
2.50 Newcastle – Dancing Art (Nb)
3.00 Leicester – Moscow Chancer
3.30 Leicester – Big Easy
3.40 Ludlow – Monarchs Way
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports
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