The final Cheltenham curtain is drawing ever nearer and with every winner, every fairytale, story and emotion, whilst every winner is celebrated, comes the knowledge that with every rush of adrenaline it’ll be a whole twelve months before we are back again.
Friday is often the most difficult day of the festival, with the blue ribbon event, the Gold Cup, not being my best betting race. The County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe have large fields with plenty of handicap plots, and could be something of the unknown.
The Triumph Hurdle was a terrific race last year when it featured Grandouet, Zarkander, Unaccompanied, Third Intention and Molotof. This year’s race looks wide open, and with no obvious winner on paper, we must delve deeper into the formbook.
Saddlers Risk leapt to favouritism after a Kempton novice hurdle win in January but was easily dispatched by Cheltenham novice hurdle winner and subsequent Adonis Hurdle winner Baby Mix. Baby Mix was himself soundly beaten when running against Pearl Swan and Grumeti in the Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham towards the back end of January. Further down the field Hollow Tree for the Donald McCain stable was soundly beaten and can be overlooked as well. Pearl Swan won the race, but caused interference and lost the race in the stewards room to GRUMETI for the Alan King stable.
He went on to frank the form with a tough, gritty defeat of Dodging Bullets at Kempton in the Dovecote Hurdle and he looks to have the pick of the form. His only defeat came when falling when 10 lengths clear in a decent looking Newbury juvenile hurdle. He is the pick of the British runners in my view.
The last Irish winner was in 1994, and with no powerful claims, it rests with Gordon Elliot and SHADOW CATCHER to offer the each way value. He ran a terrific race when second behind fellow contender Hisaabat in the Sprint Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown, and would have won if held up, hitting the front too soon. With Paul Carberry on board (there is no better jockey when it comes to hold up tactics) he may provide an upset.
The County Hurdle is one of the most notoriously difficult handicap hurdles of the season, let alone the festival, and has had some memorable finishes, Final Approach beating Get Me Out of Here on the line, in a thriller last year. The spoils could remain with the Irish with the Jessica Harrington trained CITIZENSHIP looking to have excellent claims. He creeps in at the bottom of the weights and has a great chance.
A lively outsider could be LOCAL HERO for the modest Steve Gollings yard, and it comes back to the Triumph Hurdle form from last year. He was a 20/1 outsider but ran very gamely to finish eight, only beaten by ten lengths, behind subsequent Grade 1 horses. He ran with credit on his comeback at Kelso behind subsequent Neptune Hurdle winner Simonsig, his first run of the season, and that should have brought him on no end for a spring campaign, starting here.
The Albert Bartlett Hurdle is for novices over the three miles on the new course, and has been a great betting heat for punters. I have already dipped my toe in the ante post pool, and have invested on Mount Belbuben, Sea of Thunder and Boston Bob at significantly bigger prices, and the value seems to have dried up. Willie Mullins has indicated that BOSTON BOB could be one of the horses of a lifetime and he has done nothing but progress this season. The strapping seven year old looks to be a potential Gold Cup horse but has already shown tremendous ability over hurdles, winning consecutive Grade 2’s on good and heavy ground. He has had the beating of his only main dangers and, barring accidents, should win this. Sea of Thunder could chase him home.
The Gold Cup requires no build up and is the contest that the racing world has been waiting for. Kauto Star, “King Kauto”, has passed all fitness tests and will run, aiming to break yet another record. He is the only horse to regain the Gold Cup, and will go up against last years winner Long Run who has finished second behind Kauto twice, in the Betfair Chase and the King George.
The value looks to be in the betting without the front two, and WHAT A FRIEND makes plenty of appeal. A narrow fourth last year, he has been brought along well, finishing four lengths behind Long Run in the Denman Chase last month. He should appreciate the better ground and, although I hope Kauto wins, I can’t back him, and hope to cheer What a Friend on into a place.
The Foxhunters race is somewhat an afterthought and the phrase ‘After the Lord Mayor’s Show’ springs to mind. With two significant absentees in Backstage and Baby Run, the race looks wide open, but the classy CHAPOTURGEON could be the most likely winner. The eight year old ticks all boxes from a trends perspective, and was impressive when beating current favourite Cloudy Lane at Newbury in January after a year off. He is entitled to improve and won the Jewson Novice Chase at the festival three years ago, and is clearly a good horse. MERCHANT ROYAL was impressive for the Dermot Weld stable when winning a three mile hunter chase at Thurles on soft ground, and travelled very impressively. There could be more improvement to come and he is respected.
The Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle was won last year in impressive fashion by subsequent Jewson Chase winner Sir Des Champs. A horse already on a promising road is EMPIRE LEVANT from the Paul Nicholls stable. He got within 6 lengths of eventual Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby in a listed hurdle at Newbury, and a line can be written through the Betfair Hurdle, with the slow pace not suiting. Another with a strong chance is TONER D’OUDARIES for Gigginstown Stud and Gordon Elliot. He has been aimed at the festival for a long time, and has been in good heart this season, running behind Steps to Freedom, Unaccompanied, Jetson and Sailors Warn, in a slow steady build-up.
The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual is the final swansong for the 2012 Cheltenham Festival, and is usually the ‘death or glory’ moment for punters chasing the week long losses. This get out of jail opportunity consists of a twenty-one runner handicap chase over the extended two miles. Nicky Henderson, after whose late father the race is named, has had a record breaking Cheltenham so far and he has been plotting this race for months.
Anquetta has Andrew Tinkler on board, and was impressive in a Listed Handicap Chase at Ascot. He has since lost his way though, falling in his subsequent run, and finishing last of ten in a valuable chase at Doncaster and can be overlooked. Novice chaser Eradicate finished his hurdling campaign with a Grade 3 win at Haydock, and in novice chases, has two wins and a nose defeat.
Leading jockey Barry Geraghty has opted for Tanks for That, and he looked to have a bright season on the cards with a win at the Cheltenham Open Meeting in a valuable seventeen runner handicap chase. He has struggled since the 9lb hike in the weights, and prefers running fresh.
Kid Cassidy has AP on board, chosen ahead of Bellvano, but both look poorly handicapped. FRENCH OPERA looks to be on his way back, since returning behind Sprinter Sacre in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. French Opera is a Grade 2 winning chaser and has a good record at Cheltenham, including two victories. He looks very interesting.
The other fancy is TARA ROYAL for Donald McCain. The stable landed a touch when winning the Scottish Champion Chase with him at Musselburgh and he seemed to appreciate the strong pace and good ground, both of which he will find to his liking at Cheltenham. Ultimate finished down the field that day, and now has a 6lb swing, but the Brian Ellison charge could be out of his depth here.
Tara Royal and French Opera are the two that appeal at the prices.
1.30 Grumeti (Ew) & Shadow Catcher (Ew)
2.05 Citizenship & Local Hero (Ew)
2.40 Boston Bob (Nap)
3.20 What a Friend (Betting without Long Run/Kauto EW)
4.00 Chapoturgeon & Merchant Royal (Ew)
4.40 Toner D’oudaries (Ew) & Empire Levant (Ew)
5.15 French Opera (Ew) & Tara Royal (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Showing posts with label Paul Nicholls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Nicholls. Show all posts
Thursday, 15 March 2012
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Cheltenham Day Three - Thursday 15th March 2012
Cheltenham Day Three, and the hangovers have already set in, and are in direct proportion to the volume of losers totalled, and Guinness consumed. The bookmakers after day one have started off well, with Hurricane Fly beaten in the Champion Hurdle, as well as good results for those at the other side of the rails in the Supreme Novices and the JLT Handicap Chase.
The opening race is the Nap of Day Three and SIR DES CHAMPS for my money is an absolute banker. I have been backing this horse for the Jewson Novices Chase for the best part of four months. He looked smart over hurdles, and won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Emit Mullins. He was seemingly swept off his feet by the early pace, but stayed on well, to win comfortably, showing great resilience and tenacity. Since imported from France he is unbeaten in five starts, including last time out winning a 2 miles 5 furlongs Grade 2 novices chase on soft ground. The better ground should see further improvement, and given he has course form, he should have the beating of much supposed inferior rivals in Peddlers Cross, For Non Stop and Champion Court.
In the Pertemps Final, it could be worth taking a chance on CAPE TRIBULATION for the Malcolm Jefferson yard. The yard hasn’t been in the greatest patch of form but they have booked Denis O’ Regan to be on board, and he on the other hand is. The eight year old made plenty of mistakes in some decent handicap chases this season, and has looked far better when switching back to hurdles. He ran a game fourth last time out behind Grand Vision at Haydock over 2 miles 5 furlongs, and although he was beaten 21 lengths, he ran on well towards the finish. Fifth that day was Alfie Sherrin, who won the JLT Handicap on Day One, beating a decent field, and further franks the form. He is top rated on Racing Post Ratings and should be a decent price, and definitely an each way player.
The Ryanair Chase looks to be one of the most open renewals for years, and is seen in the betting, with Riverside Theatre the 5/1 favourite. Reigning champion Albertas Run looks set to win three in a row, but given he hasn’t run since Aintree in October, has to be opposed. Poquelin has course form, winning five times, and a good second last time out around course and distance, not to mention respect for Somersby, Kalahari King and course and distance winner this time last year Noble Prince. That being said, the best bet looks to be MEDERMIT, a horse with consistent and tough performances, as well as course form around Cheltenham. Since switching to chasing, he has yet to finish worse than fourth, and that was in a good renewal in last years Arkle. Since then he has finished 2-1-3-2-2 and has been running in Graded Company or in class one handicaps. The trip should suit and given the tenacity of this striking grey, at the prices, he is terrific value.
Big Bucks is one of the most amazing racehorses I have ever had the privilege to witness, and without reasoning or rhetoric, he will win his record breaking fourth World Hurdle.
The two remaining handicaps look to be difficult nuts to crack, and the Byrne Group Plate and the Kim Muir and usually races that are associated with the Pipe stable, and they have leading players in both races, and have to be respected, with Junior for the stable winning the Kim Muir last year, when punted off the boards to land a touch.
They have Dan Breen and the current favourite Salut Flo in the race, and Salut Flo has been backed no end in the last few weeks, to the point where he is the 9/2 ante post favourite. Much in a similar fashion to The Package who finished fourth in the JLT Handicap Chase, he returns from a lay off, and could be out of the grip of the handicapper. That being said, I like the look of DIVERS for the Ferdy Murphy yard,, and has the all important course and distance form around Cheltenham next to his name. Trainer Ferdy Murphy has a good record in festival handicaps, and with AP McCoy booked for the ride, connections clearly feel a good run is on the cards.
The Kim Muir is another one of those races for amateur riders, one of four overall, but still attracts a very good field, and some very good riders as well. Ferdy Murphy has another live chance here with THE HOLLINWELL. He seems to be peaking at the right time, and had a perfect tune up with a ‘Jumpers bumper’ at Southwell last month. He won the six runner race quite easily under a 10lb claimer, and the form has already worked out well with the fourth that day coming out and winning a 17 runner handicap hurdle on his next start. He goes to Cheltenham with the handicapper not altering his mark after this run, and he could be potentially well in. At the prohibitive odds at 20/1 he has to have a live chance.
1.30 Sir Des Champs (Nap)
2.05 Cape Tribulation (Ew)
2.40 Medermit (Ew)
3.20 Big Bucks
4.00 Divers (Ew)
4.40 The Hollinwell (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
The opening race is the Nap of Day Three and SIR DES CHAMPS for my money is an absolute banker. I have been backing this horse for the Jewson Novices Chase for the best part of four months. He looked smart over hurdles, and won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Emit Mullins. He was seemingly swept off his feet by the early pace, but stayed on well, to win comfortably, showing great resilience and tenacity. Since imported from France he is unbeaten in five starts, including last time out winning a 2 miles 5 furlongs Grade 2 novices chase on soft ground. The better ground should see further improvement, and given he has course form, he should have the beating of much supposed inferior rivals in Peddlers Cross, For Non Stop and Champion Court.
In the Pertemps Final, it could be worth taking a chance on CAPE TRIBULATION for the Malcolm Jefferson yard. The yard hasn’t been in the greatest patch of form but they have booked Denis O’ Regan to be on board, and he on the other hand is. The eight year old made plenty of mistakes in some decent handicap chases this season, and has looked far better when switching back to hurdles. He ran a game fourth last time out behind Grand Vision at Haydock over 2 miles 5 furlongs, and although he was beaten 21 lengths, he ran on well towards the finish. Fifth that day was Alfie Sherrin, who won the JLT Handicap on Day One, beating a decent field, and further franks the form. He is top rated on Racing Post Ratings and should be a decent price, and definitely an each way player.
The Ryanair Chase looks to be one of the most open renewals for years, and is seen in the betting, with Riverside Theatre the 5/1 favourite. Reigning champion Albertas Run looks set to win three in a row, but given he hasn’t run since Aintree in October, has to be opposed. Poquelin has course form, winning five times, and a good second last time out around course and distance, not to mention respect for Somersby, Kalahari King and course and distance winner this time last year Noble Prince. That being said, the best bet looks to be MEDERMIT, a horse with consistent and tough performances, as well as course form around Cheltenham. Since switching to chasing, he has yet to finish worse than fourth, and that was in a good renewal in last years Arkle. Since then he has finished 2-1-3-2-2 and has been running in Graded Company or in class one handicaps. The trip should suit and given the tenacity of this striking grey, at the prices, he is terrific value.
Big Bucks is one of the most amazing racehorses I have ever had the privilege to witness, and without reasoning or rhetoric, he will win his record breaking fourth World Hurdle.
The two remaining handicaps look to be difficult nuts to crack, and the Byrne Group Plate and the Kim Muir and usually races that are associated with the Pipe stable, and they have leading players in both races, and have to be respected, with Junior for the stable winning the Kim Muir last year, when punted off the boards to land a touch.
They have Dan Breen and the current favourite Salut Flo in the race, and Salut Flo has been backed no end in the last few weeks, to the point where he is the 9/2 ante post favourite. Much in a similar fashion to The Package who finished fourth in the JLT Handicap Chase, he returns from a lay off, and could be out of the grip of the handicapper. That being said, I like the look of DIVERS for the Ferdy Murphy yard,, and has the all important course and distance form around Cheltenham next to his name. Trainer Ferdy Murphy has a good record in festival handicaps, and with AP McCoy booked for the ride, connections clearly feel a good run is on the cards.
The Kim Muir is another one of those races for amateur riders, one of four overall, but still attracts a very good field, and some very good riders as well. Ferdy Murphy has another live chance here with THE HOLLINWELL. He seems to be peaking at the right time, and had a perfect tune up with a ‘Jumpers bumper’ at Southwell last month. He won the six runner race quite easily under a 10lb claimer, and the form has already worked out well with the fourth that day coming out and winning a 17 runner handicap hurdle on his next start. He goes to Cheltenham with the handicapper not altering his mark after this run, and he could be potentially well in. At the prohibitive odds at 20/1 he has to have a live chance.
1.30 Sir Des Champs (Nap)
2.05 Cape Tribulation (Ew)
2.40 Medermit (Ew)
3.20 Big Bucks
4.00 Divers (Ew)
4.40 The Hollinwell (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Wednesday, 8 February 2012
Weekend Tipping - Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury and Hennessy Gold Cup Day at Leopardstown
Newbury on Saturday is being billed as ‘Super Saturday’ and it looks like it might live up to its name with the Denman Chase and the Game Spirit Chase featuring. On top of this last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkander goes for the Betfair Hurdle, where he is a hot favourite. Ireland goes toe-to-toe on the class front with a whopping four Grade Ones at Leopardstown on Sunday.
SPRINTER SACRE is a horse I have harped on about for months now and I got on early in the Arkle ante-post market. I fully expect him to rout his opponents in the Game Spirit Chase on this, his last stop before Cheltenham. The race has been good to trainer Nicky Henderson and his winner from last year, French Opera, is also entered although the ground will dictate whether he’ll run or not. Sprinter Sacre is the top rated horse in the line up following his demolition of Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Cue Card will make the running and will put up a good fight but Sprinter Sacre is an top class and it’d be no surprise were he a multiple winner of championship races in years to come.
They say always forgive a horse one bad run and I’m happy to apply this tenet to EDUCATED EVANS (2.20 Warwick). He tipped up last time out when seeking the hatrick but had run in the most bizarre fashion. He would barely start and had to be really got after by Sam Twiston-Davies to get going. He then badly blundered at both the first two fences before being pulled up. If that was a hiccup and he runs to the form of the previous two runs I think he will give a good account of himself here.
The Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.
The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.
Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.
Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later, and got out battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb, but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.
2.20 Warwick – Educated Evans
3.10 Newbury – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
3.45 Newbury – Empire Levant (Ew) & Third Intention (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner - @JJMSports
SPRINTER SACRE is a horse I have harped on about for months now and I got on early in the Arkle ante-post market. I fully expect him to rout his opponents in the Game Spirit Chase on this, his last stop before Cheltenham. The race has been good to trainer Nicky Henderson and his winner from last year, French Opera, is also entered although the ground will dictate whether he’ll run or not. Sprinter Sacre is the top rated horse in the line up following his demolition of Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Cue Card will make the running and will put up a good fight but Sprinter Sacre is an top class and it’d be no surprise were he a multiple winner of championship races in years to come.
They say always forgive a horse one bad run and I’m happy to apply this tenet to EDUCATED EVANS (2.20 Warwick). He tipped up last time out when seeking the hatrick but had run in the most bizarre fashion. He would barely start and had to be really got after by Sam Twiston-Davies to get going. He then badly blundered at both the first two fences before being pulled up. If that was a hiccup and he runs to the form of the previous two runs I think he will give a good account of himself here.
The Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.
The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.
Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.
Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later, and got out battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb, but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.
2.20 Warwick – Educated Evans
3.10 Newbury – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
3.45 Newbury – Empire Levant (Ew) & Third Intention (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner - @JJMSports
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