Cheltenham Day Three, and the hangovers have already set in, and are in direct proportion to the volume of losers totalled, and Guinness consumed. The bookmakers after day one have started off well, with Hurricane Fly beaten in the Champion Hurdle, as well as good results for those at the other side of the rails in the Supreme Novices and the JLT Handicap Chase.
The opening race is the Nap of Day Three and SIR DES CHAMPS for my money is an absolute banker. I have been backing this horse for the Jewson Novices Chase for the best part of four months. He looked smart over hurdles, and won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival under Emit Mullins. He was seemingly swept off his feet by the early pace, but stayed on well, to win comfortably, showing great resilience and tenacity. Since imported from France he is unbeaten in five starts, including last time out winning a 2 miles 5 furlongs Grade 2 novices chase on soft ground. The better ground should see further improvement, and given he has course form, he should have the beating of much supposed inferior rivals in Peddlers Cross, For Non Stop and Champion Court.
In the Pertemps Final, it could be worth taking a chance on CAPE TRIBULATION for the Malcolm Jefferson yard. The yard hasn’t been in the greatest patch of form but they have booked Denis O’ Regan to be on board, and he on the other hand is. The eight year old made plenty of mistakes in some decent handicap chases this season, and has looked far better when switching back to hurdles. He ran a game fourth last time out behind Grand Vision at Haydock over 2 miles 5 furlongs, and although he was beaten 21 lengths, he ran on well towards the finish. Fifth that day was Alfie Sherrin, who won the JLT Handicap on Day One, beating a decent field, and further franks the form. He is top rated on Racing Post Ratings and should be a decent price, and definitely an each way player.
The Ryanair Chase looks to be one of the most open renewals for years, and is seen in the betting, with Riverside Theatre the 5/1 favourite. Reigning champion Albertas Run looks set to win three in a row, but given he hasn’t run since Aintree in October, has to be opposed. Poquelin has course form, winning five times, and a good second last time out around course and distance, not to mention respect for Somersby, Kalahari King and course and distance winner this time last year Noble Prince. That being said, the best bet looks to be MEDERMIT, a horse with consistent and tough performances, as well as course form around Cheltenham. Since switching to chasing, he has yet to finish worse than fourth, and that was in a good renewal in last years Arkle. Since then he has finished 2-1-3-2-2 and has been running in Graded Company or in class one handicaps. The trip should suit and given the tenacity of this striking grey, at the prices, he is terrific value.
Big Bucks is one of the most amazing racehorses I have ever had the privilege to witness, and without reasoning or rhetoric, he will win his record breaking fourth World Hurdle.
The two remaining handicaps look to be difficult nuts to crack, and the Byrne Group Plate and the Kim Muir and usually races that are associated with the Pipe stable, and they have leading players in both races, and have to be respected, with Junior for the stable winning the Kim Muir last year, when punted off the boards to land a touch.
They have Dan Breen and the current favourite Salut Flo in the race, and Salut Flo has been backed no end in the last few weeks, to the point where he is the 9/2 ante post favourite. Much in a similar fashion to The Package who finished fourth in the JLT Handicap Chase, he returns from a lay off, and could be out of the grip of the handicapper. That being said, I like the look of DIVERS for the Ferdy Murphy yard,, and has the all important course and distance form around Cheltenham next to his name. Trainer Ferdy Murphy has a good record in festival handicaps, and with AP McCoy booked for the ride, connections clearly feel a good run is on the cards.
The Kim Muir is another one of those races for amateur riders, one of four overall, but still attracts a very good field, and some very good riders as well. Ferdy Murphy has another live chance here with THE HOLLINWELL. He seems to be peaking at the right time, and had a perfect tune up with a ‘Jumpers bumper’ at Southwell last month. He won the six runner race quite easily under a 10lb claimer, and the form has already worked out well with the fourth that day coming out and winning a 17 runner handicap hurdle on his next start. He goes to Cheltenham with the handicapper not altering his mark after this run, and he could be potentially well in. At the prohibitive odds at 20/1 he has to have a live chance.
1.30 Sir Des Champs (Nap)
2.05 Cape Tribulation (Ew)
2.40 Medermit (Ew)
3.20 Big Bucks
4.00 Divers (Ew)
4.40 The Hollinwell (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Showing posts with label Cheltenham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cheltenham. Show all posts
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Byrne Group Plate - Cheltenham, Day Three
The two handicaps on Thursday look to be difficult nuts to crack, and the Byrne Group Plate and the Kim Muir and usually races that are associated with the Pipe stable, and they have leading players in both races. Junior for won the Kim Muir for the stable last year, when punted off the boards to land a touch, and as such the stable has to be respected in these type of races.. His father Martin won this race four in five years, including three on the spin between 1999-2002, the last of which with the spectacular gelding Blowing Wind.
They have Dan Breen and the current favourite Salut Flo in the race, and Salut Flo has been backed no end in the last few weeks, to the point where he is the 9/2 ante post favourite. Much in a similar fashion to The Package who finished fourth in the JLT Handicap Chase, he returns from a lay off, and could be out of the grip of the handicapper. He returned from a near two year lay off in the December Gold Cup, and was well backed in doing so, going off 13/2, and was going well before blundering and being bumped three out. He has gone up 3lb for that run, and that could have him spot on for Thursday. The stable also have some lively outsiders, with once Arkle hope Notus De La Tour possibly taking up an entry here, rather than the novice chase route. He has been consistent for the yard, progressing from novice chases, into Grade 1 company, finishing second and third at Leopardstown in Grade 1’s, the latter behind Flemenstar, who franked the form winning next time out, beating Bog Warrior in the Grade 3 Directors Novice Chase at Naas last Sunday. The stable also have Matuhi and Great Endeavour entered, but are unlikely to take up the option.
Nigel Twiston-Davies could have a say in the outcome, and could turn the corner on what has been the stables lofty standards, a lean year. The trainer has Mad Moose, Pigeon Island, The Cockney Mackem and Ackertac all entered, but confirmations yet to be made over the participation of all four runners. Ackertac is likely to run however in the Grand Annual, and Pigeon Island could miss out, being at the bottom of the weights as does The Cockney Mackem, depending on how many horses come out before the final declarations. Mad Moose could be a lively outsider, and has come down 8lb since a good run behind Benny Be Good at Market Rasen last year.
Michael Flips put up a career best chase mark last time out finishing second behind For Non Stop last in the Scilly Isles Grade 1 Novices Chase for Andrew Turnell’s stable star, posting a figure of 145. Ironically, his best effort came in defeat, behind Zaynar at Ascot in December, with every runner down the field, winning and posting better figures in subsequent runs. He is relatively unexposed and could have further improvements. Similarly with Holmwood Legend for the Kieran Burke yard, who celebrated the win of Hunt Ball on Tuesday. Thrown in at the deep end, he was beaten by 62 lengths in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but has gradually improved to finish well in Wincanton and Taunton Class 2 Handicaps over 19 and 21 furlongs. The form from both runs has worked out well, and is up 1lb for those efforts.
Crackaway Jack has the unique profile of being a previous festival winner, a victor in the Fred Winter in 2008, and followed that with a good fourth in the Champion Hurdle in 2009. He has been unlucky with injuries, having three spells of being out for roughly a year within the last four years. He returned from a 273 day absence with a good fifth behind Tanks for That at the Cheltenham Open Meeting. Switched to hurdles, he didn’t show the same enthusiasm or vigour when thirteenth of eighteen runners at Ascot, finishing 33 lengths behind winner Bourne. He has the advantage of course form over his rivals, and if he has retained his class, he is potentially well in.
That being said, I like the look of Divers for the Ferdy Murphy yard, and has the all important course and distance form around Cheltenham next to his name. Trainer Ferdy Murphy has a good record in festival handicaps, and with AP McCoy booked for the ride, connections clearly feel a good run is on the cards. He won the Centenary Novices Chase last year in grand fashion, under a very smart ride from Graham Lee, being held up, before taking it up in the run in, picking off Quantitativeeasing and Tullamore Dew in the process. Both have blazed themselves in further glory this season, the former winning the Spinal Research Gold Cup, with Tullamore Dew running well to place in several handicap chases. Further down the field, Shakalakaboomboom has won and placed in decent chases, as has Vino Griego. Divers has been steadily brought back by Ferdy Murphy this year, pulled up on his return at Carlisle, when the betting indicated he didn’t have a strong chance. He then ran a strong third behind Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, before unseating in the Spinal Research Gold Cup. He had a tune up in a two mile handicap chase at Musselburgh, and should be spot on for the day.
Selections:
1. Divers
2. Crackaway Jack
3. Notus De La Tour
4. Salut Flo
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
They have Dan Breen and the current favourite Salut Flo in the race, and Salut Flo has been backed no end in the last few weeks, to the point where he is the 9/2 ante post favourite. Much in a similar fashion to The Package who finished fourth in the JLT Handicap Chase, he returns from a lay off, and could be out of the grip of the handicapper. He returned from a near two year lay off in the December Gold Cup, and was well backed in doing so, going off 13/2, and was going well before blundering and being bumped three out. He has gone up 3lb for that run, and that could have him spot on for Thursday. The stable also have some lively outsiders, with once Arkle hope Notus De La Tour possibly taking up an entry here, rather than the novice chase route. He has been consistent for the yard, progressing from novice chases, into Grade 1 company, finishing second and third at Leopardstown in Grade 1’s, the latter behind Flemenstar, who franked the form winning next time out, beating Bog Warrior in the Grade 3 Directors Novice Chase at Naas last Sunday. The stable also have Matuhi and Great Endeavour entered, but are unlikely to take up the option.
Nigel Twiston-Davies could have a say in the outcome, and could turn the corner on what has been the stables lofty standards, a lean year. The trainer has Mad Moose, Pigeon Island, The Cockney Mackem and Ackertac all entered, but confirmations yet to be made over the participation of all four runners. Ackertac is likely to run however in the Grand Annual, and Pigeon Island could miss out, being at the bottom of the weights as does The Cockney Mackem, depending on how many horses come out before the final declarations. Mad Moose could be a lively outsider, and has come down 8lb since a good run behind Benny Be Good at Market Rasen last year.
Michael Flips put up a career best chase mark last time out finishing second behind For Non Stop last in the Scilly Isles Grade 1 Novices Chase for Andrew Turnell’s stable star, posting a figure of 145. Ironically, his best effort came in defeat, behind Zaynar at Ascot in December, with every runner down the field, winning and posting better figures in subsequent runs. He is relatively unexposed and could have further improvements. Similarly with Holmwood Legend for the Kieran Burke yard, who celebrated the win of Hunt Ball on Tuesday. Thrown in at the deep end, he was beaten by 62 lengths in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but has gradually improved to finish well in Wincanton and Taunton Class 2 Handicaps over 19 and 21 furlongs. The form from both runs has worked out well, and is up 1lb for those efforts.
Crackaway Jack has the unique profile of being a previous festival winner, a victor in the Fred Winter in 2008, and followed that with a good fourth in the Champion Hurdle in 2009. He has been unlucky with injuries, having three spells of being out for roughly a year within the last four years. He returned from a 273 day absence with a good fifth behind Tanks for That at the Cheltenham Open Meeting. Switched to hurdles, he didn’t show the same enthusiasm or vigour when thirteenth of eighteen runners at Ascot, finishing 33 lengths behind winner Bourne. He has the advantage of course form over his rivals, and if he has retained his class, he is potentially well in.
That being said, I like the look of Divers for the Ferdy Murphy yard, and has the all important course and distance form around Cheltenham next to his name. Trainer Ferdy Murphy has a good record in festival handicaps, and with AP McCoy booked for the ride, connections clearly feel a good run is on the cards. He won the Centenary Novices Chase last year in grand fashion, under a very smart ride from Graham Lee, being held up, before taking it up in the run in, picking off Quantitativeeasing and Tullamore Dew in the process. Both have blazed themselves in further glory this season, the former winning the Spinal Research Gold Cup, with Tullamore Dew running well to place in several handicap chases. Further down the field, Shakalakaboomboom has won and placed in decent chases, as has Vino Griego. Divers has been steadily brought back by Ferdy Murphy this year, pulled up on his return at Carlisle, when the betting indicated he didn’t have a strong chance. He then ran a strong third behind Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, before unseating in the Spinal Research Gold Cup. He had a tune up in a two mile handicap chase at Musselburgh, and should be spot on for the day.
Selections:
1. Divers
2. Crackaway Jack
3. Notus De La Tour
4. Salut Flo
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Sunday, 11 March 2012
National Hunt Chase - Cheltenham Day Two
The National Hunt Challenge Cup is the opening race on day two of the Festival, and the four mile trip is usually a precursor for horses going onto the Nationals, with the first and second from last years race, Chicago Grey and Beshabar both running in the Scottish National, with the latter being triumphant. Chicago Grey will now go for the Aintree Grand National this year, and is quietly fancied at around 25/1 for trainer Gordon Elliot.
The National Hunt Chase is the most historic and arguably challenging race of the Festival, run on the old course, is run over four miles with twenty-four fences, making it a true test, even more so with the relative inexperience for some riders., with race being contested by amateur riders.
Former jockey and current trainer Jonjo O’ Neill has the strongest record in the race, with a record five wins, most recently through Butlers Cabin in 2007. He has no entries unfortunately in this race, but trainers similarly to him who have won the race as a jockey do, going onto train, the likes of Willie Mullins and Andy Martin. Willie Mullins, Champion Irish Trainer has the front two in the betting in Soll and Allee garde. Soll has had this race as his target since winning a Down Royal chase on February 1st over two and a half miles on heavy going. The seven year old son of Presenting looks to be an out and out stayer and has all the makings of a National horse. Similarly Allee Garde has shown good form this season since reappearing at Clonmel, winning comfortably, much like Soll, on two and a half miles on heavy ground. He ran well behind the two leading Gigginstown novices First Lieutenant and Last Instalment in the Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase at Leopardstown, before another game effort when third at Naas in January. Mullins will have two of the best amateur riders in racing at his disposal in his son Patrick Mullins, and Katie Walsh, a winner of t his in 2009 with Poker De Sivola, and both have been in good form this season.
Alfie Spinner has shown good form this season in novice chases, running behind some much superior rivals, yet still demonstrating a good attitude. A fourth behind Grands Crus on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury, had him thirteen lengths behind a hopeful for the Twiston-Davies stable Viking Blond, owned by the same connections of Sprinter Sacre. Alfie Spinner followed that up by a win on heavy ground at Chepstow, before game efforts behind Frascati Park and a top rated performance of 138 on official ratings when three lengths behind RSA hopefuls Bobs Worth and Invictus in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot. He has the added bonus of having a previous winning jockey on him in Sam Waley-Cohen, who has a tremendous record in the race, winning in 2009 on Tricky Trickster, and was third last year on Be There in Five.
Harry the Viking has shaped like a stayer all winter, and has been the long time ante post favourite for this race and has leading connections, being trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The seven year old gelding was bought from the Irish point-to-point circuit, and showed good heart with his debut last season. He won two maiden hurdles, before winning two subsequent maiden chases. The latter being the more impressive, winning over three miles two furlongs on good to soft ground at Doncaster. He was caught on the run in before showing great determination to rally back and get up on the line. Second that day was Ikorodu Road, who got up to subsequently beat the Grand National favourite and Kim Muir winner Junior in the Doncaster Chase, further enhancing the strong line of form.
Teaforthree looks to be shaping up to be a very smart chaser since switching to the larger obstacles at the start of this season. He had a good hurdling career, a narrow third in a Cheltenham Grade 2 novice hurdle, before a solid eighth in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival, when seemingly done for speed. Chasing was always going to be the making of this animal though, and he has warmed to them, running five times during this campaign, with three victories. The beautifully bred eight year old finished second to RSA hopeful Join Together on his debut, who has won another Cheltenham novice chase, with both winning further races. He was a comfortable winner of a three mile heavy ground run at Chepstow, beating subsequent winners Restless Harry and Cannington Brook in fine style, running on well towards the end. Beaten for pace in the Feltham Chase, he got back on track winning another novice chase at Chepstow, getting a smart ride from AP McCoy, with the form already working out well. JT McNamara has been booked, and that should further enhance his claims.
Given the nature of TEAFORTHREE’s victories, I think the trip will be the making of him. Winning on all types of ground has highlighted his versatility, and he has been running against much classier rivals. Winning, running on heavy ground over three miles further indicates the trip should suit and he will be there or thereabouts. The main threats look to come from the unexposed Harry the Viking and the latter of the Mullins pair Allee Garde, who like Teaforthree, has been racing in much higher class races, and still running with great credit.
1. Teaforthree
2. Allee Garde
3. Harry The Viking
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
The National Hunt Chase is the most historic and arguably challenging race of the Festival, run on the old course, is run over four miles with twenty-four fences, making it a true test, even more so with the relative inexperience for some riders., with race being contested by amateur riders.
Former jockey and current trainer Jonjo O’ Neill has the strongest record in the race, with a record five wins, most recently through Butlers Cabin in 2007. He has no entries unfortunately in this race, but trainers similarly to him who have won the race as a jockey do, going onto train, the likes of Willie Mullins and Andy Martin. Willie Mullins, Champion Irish Trainer has the front two in the betting in Soll and Allee garde. Soll has had this race as his target since winning a Down Royal chase on February 1st over two and a half miles on heavy going. The seven year old son of Presenting looks to be an out and out stayer and has all the makings of a National horse. Similarly Allee Garde has shown good form this season since reappearing at Clonmel, winning comfortably, much like Soll, on two and a half miles on heavy ground. He ran well behind the two leading Gigginstown novices First Lieutenant and Last Instalment in the Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase at Leopardstown, before another game effort when third at Naas in January. Mullins will have two of the best amateur riders in racing at his disposal in his son Patrick Mullins, and Katie Walsh, a winner of t his in 2009 with Poker De Sivola, and both have been in good form this season.
Alfie Spinner has shown good form this season in novice chases, running behind some much superior rivals, yet still demonstrating a good attitude. A fourth behind Grands Crus on his seasonal reappearance at Newbury, had him thirteen lengths behind a hopeful for the Twiston-Davies stable Viking Blond, owned by the same connections of Sprinter Sacre. Alfie Spinner followed that up by a win on heavy ground at Chepstow, before game efforts behind Frascati Park and a top rated performance of 138 on official ratings when three lengths behind RSA hopefuls Bobs Worth and Invictus in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot. He has the added bonus of having a previous winning jockey on him in Sam Waley-Cohen, who has a tremendous record in the race, winning in 2009 on Tricky Trickster, and was third last year on Be There in Five.
Harry the Viking has shaped like a stayer all winter, and has been the long time ante post favourite for this race and has leading connections, being trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The seven year old gelding was bought from the Irish point-to-point circuit, and showed good heart with his debut last season. He won two maiden hurdles, before winning two subsequent maiden chases. The latter being the more impressive, winning over three miles two furlongs on good to soft ground at Doncaster. He was caught on the run in before showing great determination to rally back and get up on the line. Second that day was Ikorodu Road, who got up to subsequently beat the Grand National favourite and Kim Muir winner Junior in the Doncaster Chase, further enhancing the strong line of form.
Teaforthree looks to be shaping up to be a very smart chaser since switching to the larger obstacles at the start of this season. He had a good hurdling career, a narrow third in a Cheltenham Grade 2 novice hurdle, before a solid eighth in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival, when seemingly done for speed. Chasing was always going to be the making of this animal though, and he has warmed to them, running five times during this campaign, with three victories. The beautifully bred eight year old finished second to RSA hopeful Join Together on his debut, who has won another Cheltenham novice chase, with both winning further races. He was a comfortable winner of a three mile heavy ground run at Chepstow, beating subsequent winners Restless Harry and Cannington Brook in fine style, running on well towards the end. Beaten for pace in the Feltham Chase, he got back on track winning another novice chase at Chepstow, getting a smart ride from AP McCoy, with the form already working out well. JT McNamara has been booked, and that should further enhance his claims.
Given the nature of TEAFORTHREE’s victories, I think the trip will be the making of him. Winning on all types of ground has highlighted his versatility, and he has been running against much classier rivals. Winning, running on heavy ground over three miles further indicates the trip should suit and he will be there or thereabouts. The main threats look to come from the unexposed Harry the Viking and the latter of the Mullins pair Allee Garde, who like Teaforthree, has been racing in much higher class races, and still running with great credit.
1. Teaforthree
2. Allee Garde
3. Harry The Viking
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
JLT Handicap Chase - Cheltenham Day One
The JLT Handicap Chase on Day One is the opening handicap of the festival and is a race that has often been one for the punters in their annual week long battle with those evil bookmakers. Run over three miles, the race has been won by some classy sorts in the past few years with previous winners including Bensalem, An Accordion, Youllneverwalkalone and Wichita Lineman, under an inspired AP McCoy ride.
A trainer having something of a rejuvenation this season is Alan King, who has an impressive Cheltenham arsenal at his disposal this year with horses such as Medermit, Grumeti, Montbazon, Vendor and Bless The Wings to name but a few. King has two winners and a second from the last five renewals of this race and has the impressive Hold On Julio at his disposal.
The nine year old returned from a 2 ½ year absence winning a maiden chase by a staggering 28 lengths at Kelso last April. Since then, he has racked up two very impressive three mile handicap chase victories at Sandown, impressing in decent company. The gelding is clearly on the upgrade but the facts that he has never run around Cheltenham and has been put up 28lb by the handicapper mean he has a lot on his plate.
A horse who looks potentially well handicapped is Noland for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. A Grade 1 winner in 2010 and Grade 2 winner last year, both over three miles, he ran a good race in defeat in Ireland, before finishing sixth at Ascot, when his jumping let him down. Dropped another 2lb by the handicapper, he looks to be on a very workable mark.
Tullamore Dew ran an absolute cracker when finishing a neck behind Massini’s Maguire in a thrilling finish in a three mile handicap chase last month at Ascot. He stayed on well to close down the strong front running Massini’s Maguire and could be considered unlucky to not get up on the line. The two negatives that could put punters off are the 6lb hike in the weights and the fact the Nick Gifford stable are yet to have a chase winner in 2012.
The horse that finished third that day Cappa Bleu will also take his chance but looks to be using this as a stepping stone to Aintree, and on the basis of his previous run, could find himself seriously outpaced in the middle stages of the race.
The Pipe yard are always to be feared in the Cheltenham handicaps and it has been no surprise to see the ante post money plough into several of his fancies already. The Package is one who has been well backed in ante-post markets for this race. Nine out of the last eleven winners have started at a price of 8/1 or shorter, so the shorties are worthy of very close consideration. Back from a serious lay off, the nine year old has not run since an unsuccessful outing in the Badger Ales Trophy in 2010. He was a narrow loser in this race two years ago, losing by a head to 33/1 shot Chief Dan George. He is 2lb lower than his run then and clearly has to be respected.
Fruity O’ Rooney could be a lively outsider for the in-form Gary Moore yard and, given the run of Sire De Grugy in the Imperial Cup, the yard appear to be in good nick. He won a Class 3 handicap chase over three miles on 27th December, meeting trouble in jumping throughout but still beating subsequent winner Midnight Appeal by four lengths. He followed up that win with a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind potential Grand National horses Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom. That was a fair effort and he could be a terrific each way price come the day. Calgary Bay has further franked the form.
A horse that I have backed and followed for some time since losing many ante post vouchers on him for the Neptune Hurdle in 2010 is Quantitativeeasing. He loves Cheltenham and the manner of his Gold Cup Handicap Chase win at Cheltenham in December was authoritative. The step up to three miles should further benefit the seven year old, who has all the makings of a Grand National horse in prospect. He goes well fresh and has a great record around Cheltenham, his last three runs there being 2-2-1.
All in all this looks a relatively wide open contest with several leading contenders. The strongest claims in the race, in my view, are held by Quantiativeeasing. His Gold Cup Handicap Chase win at the December meeting left an indelible mark on my memory and it looks the strongest piece of form on display here.
Tullamore Dew finished behind him last year in the Centenary Novices Handicap at last years festival and he should be running on into the places. Given the length of The Package’s absence, stamina doubts have to linger, and I can see him fading in the closing stages, with Fruity O’ Rooney running on from the back.
1. Quantitativeeasing
2. Tullamore Dew
3. Fruity O’ Rooney
4. The Package
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
A trainer having something of a rejuvenation this season is Alan King, who has an impressive Cheltenham arsenal at his disposal this year with horses such as Medermit, Grumeti, Montbazon, Vendor and Bless The Wings to name but a few. King has two winners and a second from the last five renewals of this race and has the impressive Hold On Julio at his disposal.
The nine year old returned from a 2 ½ year absence winning a maiden chase by a staggering 28 lengths at Kelso last April. Since then, he has racked up two very impressive three mile handicap chase victories at Sandown, impressing in decent company. The gelding is clearly on the upgrade but the facts that he has never run around Cheltenham and has been put up 28lb by the handicapper mean he has a lot on his plate.
A horse who looks potentially well handicapped is Noland for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. A Grade 1 winner in 2010 and Grade 2 winner last year, both over three miles, he ran a good race in defeat in Ireland, before finishing sixth at Ascot, when his jumping let him down. Dropped another 2lb by the handicapper, he looks to be on a very workable mark.
Tullamore Dew ran an absolute cracker when finishing a neck behind Massini’s Maguire in a thrilling finish in a three mile handicap chase last month at Ascot. He stayed on well to close down the strong front running Massini’s Maguire and could be considered unlucky to not get up on the line. The two negatives that could put punters off are the 6lb hike in the weights and the fact the Nick Gifford stable are yet to have a chase winner in 2012.
The horse that finished third that day Cappa Bleu will also take his chance but looks to be using this as a stepping stone to Aintree, and on the basis of his previous run, could find himself seriously outpaced in the middle stages of the race.
The Pipe yard are always to be feared in the Cheltenham handicaps and it has been no surprise to see the ante post money plough into several of his fancies already. The Package is one who has been well backed in ante-post markets for this race. Nine out of the last eleven winners have started at a price of 8/1 or shorter, so the shorties are worthy of very close consideration. Back from a serious lay off, the nine year old has not run since an unsuccessful outing in the Badger Ales Trophy in 2010. He was a narrow loser in this race two years ago, losing by a head to 33/1 shot Chief Dan George. He is 2lb lower than his run then and clearly has to be respected.
Fruity O’ Rooney could be a lively outsider for the in-form Gary Moore yard and, given the run of Sire De Grugy in the Imperial Cup, the yard appear to be in good nick. He won a Class 3 handicap chase over three miles on 27th December, meeting trouble in jumping throughout but still beating subsequent winner Midnight Appeal by four lengths. He followed up that win with a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind potential Grand National horses Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom. That was a fair effort and he could be a terrific each way price come the day. Calgary Bay has further franked the form.
A horse that I have backed and followed for some time since losing many ante post vouchers on him for the Neptune Hurdle in 2010 is Quantitativeeasing. He loves Cheltenham and the manner of his Gold Cup Handicap Chase win at Cheltenham in December was authoritative. The step up to three miles should further benefit the seven year old, who has all the makings of a Grand National horse in prospect. He goes well fresh and has a great record around Cheltenham, his last three runs there being 2-2-1.
All in all this looks a relatively wide open contest with several leading contenders. The strongest claims in the race, in my view, are held by Quantiativeeasing. His Gold Cup Handicap Chase win at the December meeting left an indelible mark on my memory and it looks the strongest piece of form on display here.
Tullamore Dew finished behind him last year in the Centenary Novices Handicap at last years festival and he should be running on into the places. Given the length of The Package’s absence, stamina doubts have to linger, and I can see him fading in the closing stages, with Fruity O’ Rooney running on from the back.
1. Quantitativeeasing
2. Tullamore Dew
3. Fruity O’ Rooney
4. The Package
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Cheltenham - Day One
Do you smell that? The extra feel of electricity going round is not a power surge from the National Grid, it’s in the air because Cheltenham is finally here! No more talking, no more excuses, the preening and posturing can stop. The greatest show on turf is here.
Where to start?
The opening day is arguably the strongest. The Supreme Novices, Arkle and Champion Hurdle all have a rich history. Tuesday also enjoys a diverse feel with the Mares Hurdle, the Cross Country, a 3 miles handicap chase and a 2 ½ miles handicap novices chase. I’m already drooling at the thought.
It all starts with the Supreme Novices and the accompanying roar that sets the place alight. The pace in the Supreme Novices is usually electric and they go off hell for leather, with the best juveniles over two miles around Prestbury Park. The JP McManus money has piled into the ante post markets for DARLAN and he has been pin-pointed as the ‘chosen one’ for the infamous punter and owner.
A winner over course and distance in a novice hurdle, he was travelling like a dream in the Betfair Hurdle when falling two out, giving AP a terrible bump in the process. The way he travelled, suggests that the strong pace would suit him further, and he has a similar profile to previous winners. Although short enough in the market he has to be respected.
The other fancy is the top Irish juvenile STEPS TO FREEDOM for Jessica Harrington, whose yard is coming into form just at the right time. A Group 3 winner on the flat, he has had a smooth transition to hurdles, by way of winning the champion bumper at Aintree last year. Since then he has won three out of three novice hurdles, and goes into the race unbeaten. He won a Grade 3 novices hurdle at Punchestown on heavy ground, and followed that up with a win at Cheltenham over course and distance, getting up late to beat Prospect Wells. The trainer felt he should have won both races by further. He has been put away since and should be fresh and racing to go come March 13th.
Next comes the first of three odds on ‘bankers’ that the bookies could be absolutely crucified with. SPRINTER SACRE looks to go one better in the Arkle for the Seven Barrows yard than Finians Rainbow did when second last year when seemingly not getting up the hill. Sprinter Sacre has looked an absolute beast since switching to chasing winning his maiden chase by thirty lengths at Doncaster, before dismissing Arkle ante-post rival Peddlers Cross by 15 lengths in another novice chase. That set him up nicely for the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, where he beat last year’s winner French Opera, in the process of breaking the track record, all whilst not breaking sweat. He looks the part, travels, and jumps and looks a superstar for years to come barring accidents. Al Ferof is respected having won the King Henry VIII chase over course and distance and having beaten Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme Novices last year, but I fully expect that form to be turned round in emphatic style.
The other two hotpot favourites come from the Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins, in the form of reigning champions, HURRICANE FLY and QUEVEGA in the Champion Hurdle and the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle respectively.
Hurricane Fly has been better than ever since his victory in last years renewal, beating horses like Oscar Whisky, Overturn and Thousand Stars. His two runs at Punchestown and Leopardstown saw him win on good and heavy ground, by extended margins, both on the bridle, and he is simply different gravy to his rivals. Binocular has looked rejuvenated and Zarkander’s Triumph Hurdle form has been much boosted, but they both need to improve at least 7lb to get anywhere near the favourite if he turns up and is on song.
Similarly, QUEVEGA is completely different mustard when it comes to the mares division. She should surely win doing handstands to give her and Ruby Walsh a fourth consecutive mares hurdle.
The Cross Country is more of a spectacle than a betting opportunity and is a prize that is usually taken home by the Irish, who have dominated this race in recent years. The race is usually rather straightforward, with only one winner priced above 7/1 or greater in the last eight years. Last year’s winner SIZING AUSTRALIA went off a decent price around 13/2 and I can see him repeating that success for trainer Henry De Bromhead.
He led from the front and made all last year in impressive fashion, and has been patiently brought along this year, with this being his seasonal target. He teturned to the track in December, before a good tune up at Naas in a two mile handicap hurdle which will have him spot on. He will be getting weight from Scotsirish and Uncle Junior, the Willie Mullins pair, and has to be the value bet at the current prices at around the 5/1 mark.
That leaves us with the handicaps, and anyone who has any definite answers for handicaps over the Festival is a clever fellow. However, I just may have found the elusive ‘handicap good thing’. A horse I’ve backed and followed for years since losing many ante post vouchers on him for the Neptune in 2010 is QUANTITATIVEEASING.
The manner and style of his Gold Cup Handicap Chase win at Cheltenham in December was superb, and the step up to three miles should further enhance the seven year old’s chance. The form of that last race has worked out well with Medermit finishing second in a Grade 1 and Tatenen, Imsingingtheblues and Calgary Bay all running with great credit since. He goes well fresh, and has a great record around Cheltenham. The only serious danger to him could be NOLAND for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh, who has better form than the bare figures suggest. A Grade 1 winner in 2010 and Grade 2 winner last year, both over three miles, he ran a good race in defeat in Ireland before finishing sixth at Ascot, when his jumping let him down. Dropped another 2lb by the handicapper, he looks to be at a very workable mark.
The final race of the day is one of the handicaps that is usually taken on with great aplomb by shrewd trainer Ferdy Murphy, who had the winner last year with Divers (with our other tip Quantitativeeasing finishing second), and he has a good chance to taste victory again with GOING WRONG, who looks to be on a good mark for the Malton based trainer. He may not be the most obvious choice with Hunt Ball and Bless the Wings both having had very successful seasons, but given the trainers record at the festival, particularly in handicaps, he looks the one to be with. Up 9lb for victory in his last two novice chases at Sedgfield, the winning margins of 5 and ¾ lengths do not tell the whole story of the races. The latter race in particular caught the eye, where regular partner Graham Lee tracked the odds on favourite Realt Mor before easing him to the front after popping the last in the straight. He looks to be very classy and unexposed and looks to have the potential to improve further, especially over the extended two and a half miles trip.
1.30 Darlan & Steps to Freedom
2.05 Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
2.40 Quantitativeeasing & Noland (Ew)
3.20 Hurricane Fly
4.00 Sizing Australia
4.40 Quevega
5.15 Going Wrong (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Where to start?
The opening day is arguably the strongest. The Supreme Novices, Arkle and Champion Hurdle all have a rich history. Tuesday also enjoys a diverse feel with the Mares Hurdle, the Cross Country, a 3 miles handicap chase and a 2 ½ miles handicap novices chase. I’m already drooling at the thought.
It all starts with the Supreme Novices and the accompanying roar that sets the place alight. The pace in the Supreme Novices is usually electric and they go off hell for leather, with the best juveniles over two miles around Prestbury Park. The JP McManus money has piled into the ante post markets for DARLAN and he has been pin-pointed as the ‘chosen one’ for the infamous punter and owner.
A winner over course and distance in a novice hurdle, he was travelling like a dream in the Betfair Hurdle when falling two out, giving AP a terrible bump in the process. The way he travelled, suggests that the strong pace would suit him further, and he has a similar profile to previous winners. Although short enough in the market he has to be respected.
The other fancy is the top Irish juvenile STEPS TO FREEDOM for Jessica Harrington, whose yard is coming into form just at the right time. A Group 3 winner on the flat, he has had a smooth transition to hurdles, by way of winning the champion bumper at Aintree last year. Since then he has won three out of three novice hurdles, and goes into the race unbeaten. He won a Grade 3 novices hurdle at Punchestown on heavy ground, and followed that up with a win at Cheltenham over course and distance, getting up late to beat Prospect Wells. The trainer felt he should have won both races by further. He has been put away since and should be fresh and racing to go come March 13th.
Next comes the first of three odds on ‘bankers’ that the bookies could be absolutely crucified with. SPRINTER SACRE looks to go one better in the Arkle for the Seven Barrows yard than Finians Rainbow did when second last year when seemingly not getting up the hill. Sprinter Sacre has looked an absolute beast since switching to chasing winning his maiden chase by thirty lengths at Doncaster, before dismissing Arkle ante-post rival Peddlers Cross by 15 lengths in another novice chase. That set him up nicely for the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, where he beat last year’s winner French Opera, in the process of breaking the track record, all whilst not breaking sweat. He looks the part, travels, and jumps and looks a superstar for years to come barring accidents. Al Ferof is respected having won the King Henry VIII chase over course and distance and having beaten Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme Novices last year, but I fully expect that form to be turned round in emphatic style.
The other two hotpot favourites come from the Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins, in the form of reigning champions, HURRICANE FLY and QUEVEGA in the Champion Hurdle and the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle respectively.
Hurricane Fly has been better than ever since his victory in last years renewal, beating horses like Oscar Whisky, Overturn and Thousand Stars. His two runs at Punchestown and Leopardstown saw him win on good and heavy ground, by extended margins, both on the bridle, and he is simply different gravy to his rivals. Binocular has looked rejuvenated and Zarkander’s Triumph Hurdle form has been much boosted, but they both need to improve at least 7lb to get anywhere near the favourite if he turns up and is on song.
Similarly, QUEVEGA is completely different mustard when it comes to the mares division. She should surely win doing handstands to give her and Ruby Walsh a fourth consecutive mares hurdle.
The Cross Country is more of a spectacle than a betting opportunity and is a prize that is usually taken home by the Irish, who have dominated this race in recent years. The race is usually rather straightforward, with only one winner priced above 7/1 or greater in the last eight years. Last year’s winner SIZING AUSTRALIA went off a decent price around 13/2 and I can see him repeating that success for trainer Henry De Bromhead.
He led from the front and made all last year in impressive fashion, and has been patiently brought along this year, with this being his seasonal target. He teturned to the track in December, before a good tune up at Naas in a two mile handicap hurdle which will have him spot on. He will be getting weight from Scotsirish and Uncle Junior, the Willie Mullins pair, and has to be the value bet at the current prices at around the 5/1 mark.
That leaves us with the handicaps, and anyone who has any definite answers for handicaps over the Festival is a clever fellow. However, I just may have found the elusive ‘handicap good thing’. A horse I’ve backed and followed for years since losing many ante post vouchers on him for the Neptune in 2010 is QUANTITATIVEEASING.
The manner and style of his Gold Cup Handicap Chase win at Cheltenham in December was superb, and the step up to three miles should further enhance the seven year old’s chance. The form of that last race has worked out well with Medermit finishing second in a Grade 1 and Tatenen, Imsingingtheblues and Calgary Bay all running with great credit since. He goes well fresh, and has a great record around Cheltenham. The only serious danger to him could be NOLAND for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh, who has better form than the bare figures suggest. A Grade 1 winner in 2010 and Grade 2 winner last year, both over three miles, he ran a good race in defeat in Ireland before finishing sixth at Ascot, when his jumping let him down. Dropped another 2lb by the handicapper, he looks to be at a very workable mark.
The final race of the day is one of the handicaps that is usually taken on with great aplomb by shrewd trainer Ferdy Murphy, who had the winner last year with Divers (with our other tip Quantitativeeasing finishing second), and he has a good chance to taste victory again with GOING WRONG, who looks to be on a good mark for the Malton based trainer. He may not be the most obvious choice with Hunt Ball and Bless the Wings both having had very successful seasons, but given the trainers record at the festival, particularly in handicaps, he looks the one to be with. Up 9lb for victory in his last two novice chases at Sedgfield, the winning margins of 5 and ¾ lengths do not tell the whole story of the races. The latter race in particular caught the eye, where regular partner Graham Lee tracked the odds on favourite Realt Mor before easing him to the front after popping the last in the straight. He looks to be very classy and unexposed and looks to have the potential to improve further, especially over the extended two and a half miles trip.
1.30 Darlan & Steps to Freedom
2.05 Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
2.40 Quantitativeeasing & Noland (Ew)
3.20 Hurricane Fly
4.00 Sizing Australia
4.40 Quevega
5.15 Going Wrong (Ew)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Racing Saturday at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle: February 25th 2012
Racing on Saturday will provide a real test, with cards at Newcastle and Chepstow, where the severity of their trademark stiff finishes will be severely increased because of the anticipated heavy going. There is also racing from Kempton Park, with The Adonis Hurdle and the Racing Plus Chase being the highlights.
Kempton have had to tweak Saturday’s card due to some rearranged races. They have the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle as well as the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle. My focus will be the Racing Plus Chase, won last year by Quinz for the Phillip Hobbs yard, and they have a strong chance once more with ante post favourite Planet of Sound.
Three miles on a flat track usually means Nacarat is there or thereabouts, and although he should run into a place, it is hard to see him winning. The Tizzard stable had five wins inside an hour last Saturday and their runners Cannington Brook and Mount Oscar have to be respected. Deep Purple looks a classy sort off top weight, but I feel he stays all day and would want further ultimately. By process of elimination the answer could lie with FRUITY O’ ROONEY for the in-form Gary Moore yard.
He won a Class 3 handicap chase over course and distance on 27th December, meeting trouble in jumping throughout but still beating subsequent winner Midnight Appeal by four lengths. He followed up that win with a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind potential Grand National horses Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom. That was a fair effort and he could be a terrific each way price come the day.
The Betfred Eider Chase is a gruelling four miles and promises to test the stamina of the most hardened stayer. Horses generally need to have won over 3 ½ miles previous, and recent four miles Kelso winner EYRE SQUARE ticks all the boxes. His win in the Borders National was mightily impressive and, on softish ground, highlighted his versatility. He was given too much to do when dropping down to 3 miles in another handicap chase, when up 5lb, and jockey James Reveley can make amends here. The Ferdy Murphy trained Negus De Beaumont and Peter Niven trained Posh Bird are dangers.
AP McCoy opts to ride at Chepstow rather than Newcastle and Kempton and he has two strong chances. The first is TEAFORTHREE who has shown glimpses of class, resulting in an official rating of 146. His novice chase win on heavy ground over course and distance has led to him being aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and the drop down in grade from the Feltham Chase at Kempton should provide him with a nice prep run in the build up to that.
McCoy’s other possibility is CHESTNUT BEN, who looks to put aside a disappointing run when unseating last time out. Prior to that he had won a good two mile handicap chase at Hereford by six lengths, on soft ground, in eye-catching fashion. Providing he has a clean round, he should go very close on a workable mark.
3.05 Kempton – Fruity O’ Rooney (Ew)
3.25 Newcastle – Eyre Square (Ew)
2.40 Chepstow – Teaforthree (Nap)
4.55 Chepstow – Chestnut Ben
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports
Kempton have had to tweak Saturday’s card due to some rearranged races. They have the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle as well as the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle. My focus will be the Racing Plus Chase, won last year by Quinz for the Phillip Hobbs yard, and they have a strong chance once more with ante post favourite Planet of Sound.
Three miles on a flat track usually means Nacarat is there or thereabouts, and although he should run into a place, it is hard to see him winning. The Tizzard stable had five wins inside an hour last Saturday and their runners Cannington Brook and Mount Oscar have to be respected. Deep Purple looks a classy sort off top weight, but I feel he stays all day and would want further ultimately. By process of elimination the answer could lie with FRUITY O’ ROONEY for the in-form Gary Moore yard.
He won a Class 3 handicap chase over course and distance on 27th December, meeting trouble in jumping throughout but still beating subsequent winner Midnight Appeal by four lengths. He followed up that win with a good third in the Great Yorkshire Chase behind potential Grand National horses Calgary Bay and Shakalakaboomboom. That was a fair effort and he could be a terrific each way price come the day.
The Betfred Eider Chase is a gruelling four miles and promises to test the stamina of the most hardened stayer. Horses generally need to have won over 3 ½ miles previous, and recent four miles Kelso winner EYRE SQUARE ticks all the boxes. His win in the Borders National was mightily impressive and, on softish ground, highlighted his versatility. He was given too much to do when dropping down to 3 miles in another handicap chase, when up 5lb, and jockey James Reveley can make amends here. The Ferdy Murphy trained Negus De Beaumont and Peter Niven trained Posh Bird are dangers.
AP McCoy opts to ride at Chepstow rather than Newcastle and Kempton and he has two strong chances. The first is TEAFORTHREE who has shown glimpses of class, resulting in an official rating of 146. His novice chase win on heavy ground over course and distance has led to him being aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, and the drop down in grade from the Feltham Chase at Kempton should provide him with a nice prep run in the build up to that.
McCoy’s other possibility is CHESTNUT BEN, who looks to put aside a disappointing run when unseating last time out. Prior to that he had won a good two mile handicap chase at Hereford by six lengths, on soft ground, in eye-catching fashion. Providing he has a clean round, he should go very close on a workable mark.
3.05 Kempton – Fruity O’ Rooney (Ew)
3.25 Newcastle – Eyre Square (Ew)
2.40 Chepstow – Teaforthree (Nap)
4.55 Chepstow – Chestnut Ben
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Betfair Hurdle Day at Newbury - Friday and Ascot Chase Day - Saturday
SPRINTER SACRE is a horse I have harped on about for months now and I got on early in the Arkle ante-post market. I fully expect him to rout his opponents in the Game Spirit Chase on this, his last stop before Cheltenham. The race has been good to trainer Nicky Henderson and his winner from last year, French Opera, is also entered although the ground will dictate whether he’ll run or not. Sprinter Sacre is the top rated horse in the line up following his demolition of Peddlers Cross at Kempton. Sprinter Sacre is top class and it’d be no surprise were he a multiple winner of championship races in years to come so, although he will be a short price, follow him on Friday and lump on in the Arkle.
The rescheduled Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.
The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.
Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.
Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later and got out-battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.
Another horse using this weekend for a prep race is BOBS WORTH for the in-form Nicky Henderson stable, a yard coming back from an impressive treble at Kelso on Wednesday. Bobs Worth will go for the RSA Chase en route from Ascot and has been impressive since switching to chasing. He outstayed Cue Card at Newbury, before finding only Grands Crus too good in the Feltham Chase at Kempton. He is progressing, and sets the obvious standard in a tricky race with plenty quality about it.
SWINCOMBE FLAME is a progressive handicapper who we tipped up here in the Lanzarote Hurdle and we’ll remain loyal here in a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot. Up only 5lb, she should be good value for it.
The highlight at Ascot is the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase, over the extended two and a half miles. A specialist trip, may will look to use this as using this as a pointer towards the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, run over a similar distance. Last year’s winner Riverside Theatre turns out, as does the much hyped Kauto Stone, who carries a large reputation. However the value could lie with MEDERMIT, who comes here on the back of a terrific run in the Cheltenham Handicap Gold Cup in December. The Alan King trained horse won the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase, before finishing third in the Amlin Chase behind Master Minded and Victor Chandler Chase winner Somersby, The form of both looks good, and he should be a very tasty price. The trip looks ideal.
Newbury (Friday) 12.10 – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
Newbury (Friday) 13.15 – Third Intention (Ew) & Empire Levant (Ew)
Ascot Saturday 1.50 – Bobs Worth
Ascot Saturday 3.00 – Medermit
Ascot Saturday 3.35 – Swincombe Flame
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @ JJMSports
The rescheduled Betfair Hurdle is one of the most exciting races in the national hunt calendar and the Paul Nicholls trained Zarkander is the short priced ante post favourite. He looks the most obvious candidate in this two mile handicap hurdle but the value prices have now gone.
The two mile handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a firm pointer, and four have made the cut, Get Me out of Here and Final Approach, Soldatino and Alarazi, but all are overlooked.
Five year olds have a terrific record in the race, a pointer to the chances of EMPIRE LEVANT and THIRD INTENTION. The Colin Tizzard trained Third Intention finished nine lengths behind Zarkander in the Triumph Hurdle and has the same 9lb in receipt at official weights here. He ran well in the Greatwood at Cheltenham, before an even better second behind leading Triumph contender Ranjaan and the run should have him sport on.
Empire Levant won a handicap by 28 lengths at Taunton, hard held. He then ran two days later and got out-battled by Rock on Ruby, who went onto to finish a narrow second in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, with the third Raya Star winning the Ladbroke. He is up 12lb but the trainer fancies his chances and he could be another with something in hand of the handicapper.
Another horse using this weekend for a prep race is BOBS WORTH for the in-form Nicky Henderson stable, a yard coming back from an impressive treble at Kelso on Wednesday. Bobs Worth will go for the RSA Chase en route from Ascot and has been impressive since switching to chasing. He outstayed Cue Card at Newbury, before finding only Grands Crus too good in the Feltham Chase at Kempton. He is progressing, and sets the obvious standard in a tricky race with plenty quality about it.
SWINCOMBE FLAME is a progressive handicapper who we tipped up here in the Lanzarote Hurdle and we’ll remain loyal here in a Class 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot. Up only 5lb, she should be good value for it.
The highlight at Ascot is the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase, over the extended two and a half miles. A specialist trip, may will look to use this as using this as a pointer towards the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, run over a similar distance. Last year’s winner Riverside Theatre turns out, as does the much hyped Kauto Stone, who carries a large reputation. However the value could lie with MEDERMIT, who comes here on the back of a terrific run in the Cheltenham Handicap Gold Cup in December. The Alan King trained horse won the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase, before finishing third in the Amlin Chase behind Master Minded and Victor Chandler Chase winner Somersby, The form of both looks good, and he should be a very tasty price. The trip looks ideal.
Newbury (Friday) 12.10 – Sprinter Sacre (Nap)
Newbury (Friday) 13.15 – Third Intention (Ew) & Empire Levant (Ew)
Ascot Saturday 1.50 – Bobs Worth
Ascot Saturday 3.00 – Medermit
Ascot Saturday 3.35 – Swincombe Flame
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @ JJMSports
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Yorkshire Chase Day at Doncaster and Cheltenham Trials Day 28/1/12
A feast of racing on Saturday showcases Doncaster’s Sky Bet Chase (formerly known as The Great Yorkshire Chase), a highlight of the northern track’s jump racing calendar. Calgary Bay looks to defend his crown in what looks a decent renewal. It is also Trials Day at Cheltenham as preparations for the forthcoming festival move into top gear. Some very good horses on display at the Cotswold track, particular in the Argento Grade 2 Chase.
The Argento Chase is usually a pointer towards the Gold Cup and is run over the same course and distance. Won last year by Neptune Collognes, in a less than vintage renewal, this looks a classier field. Previous Arkle Chase winners Captain Chris and Tidal Bay, previous Hennessy winners Diamond Harry and Carruthers, as well as Cheltenham specialist Midnight Chase are among the likely runners. However another Cheltenham specialist with good claims is TIME FOR RUPERT, who can build on what promised to be such a strong novice career.
A disappointing favourite in last years RSA Chase, the eight year old finished second this term in the Charlie Hall Chase, before a solid fifth in the Betfair Chase. He dropped in grade to win a solid Graduation Chase at Newbury, and that confidence booster can do him the world of good as he returns to his favourite track.
Another Cheltenham specialist is POQUELIN, trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by the Stewart family. The multiple Prestbury Park winner carries top weight in the 2.05 but looks to hold solid claims, despite a disappointing season thus far. He has the class plus the course and distance experience to slam his rivals here, on his way to a likely run in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.
The James and Keith Reveley team usually do well at Doncaster and the father and son combo have three strong each way chances at Doncaster. The mare CUE TO CUE was the nap in midweek, but has been saved for this race (the 2.20), and she has solid claims. There are some tough rivals in Alasi and Lifestyle, but both have flaws, with Alasi unseating last time out and the Nicky Henderson trained Lifestyle running over a shorter trip.
The other Reveley eye-catchers are CORKAGE and KINGS GREY who seeks to bounce back after consecutive seconds, often in unfortunate circumstances. His last run at Catterick was a muddling affair, and he came up short, when given a poor ride, seemingly with bundles in hand, going down by a short head. The race at Doncaster looks tough, but could cut up and, with jumping doubts about leading fancies. Corkage was successfully napped last Wednesday, and won at a canter, suggesting he still has plenty left in the tank, and should be able to defy his new mark, despite hurdling instead of chasing on this occasion.
The Skybet Chase looks a terrific race in prospect and CALGARY BAY could take all the beating for the in-form Henrietta Knight stable. The versatile nine year old looked back to his best when winning a competitive three mile handicap on New Years Day at Cheltenham, showing the class that he has always promised. He is 2lb well in as a result of that and, given his performance in winning this last year, he should go close.
His main threat will come from the recent course and distance winner QIANSHAN LEADER, who won a tricky handicap here in the mud, back in December. The Emma Lavelle horse thrived in the tougher conditions, and if the heavens open, it could further improve his chances seeking the hatrick under stable jockey Jack Doyle. It’s worth backing both in this open-looking contest.
2.05 Cheltenham - Poquelin
2.35 Cheltenham - Time for Rupert (Nap)
1.15 Doncaster – Cue to Cue (Ew)
2.20 Doncaster – Corkage (Nb)
2.50 Doncaster – Calgary Bay (Ew) & Qianshan Leader (Ew)
3.55 Doncaster – Kings Grey
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @JJMSports
The Argento Chase is usually a pointer towards the Gold Cup and is run over the same course and distance. Won last year by Neptune Collognes, in a less than vintage renewal, this looks a classier field. Previous Arkle Chase winners Captain Chris and Tidal Bay, previous Hennessy winners Diamond Harry and Carruthers, as well as Cheltenham specialist Midnight Chase are among the likely runners. However another Cheltenham specialist with good claims is TIME FOR RUPERT, who can build on what promised to be such a strong novice career.
A disappointing favourite in last years RSA Chase, the eight year old finished second this term in the Charlie Hall Chase, before a solid fifth in the Betfair Chase. He dropped in grade to win a solid Graduation Chase at Newbury, and that confidence booster can do him the world of good as he returns to his favourite track.
Another Cheltenham specialist is POQUELIN, trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by the Stewart family. The multiple Prestbury Park winner carries top weight in the 2.05 but looks to hold solid claims, despite a disappointing season thus far. He has the class plus the course and distance experience to slam his rivals here, on his way to a likely run in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival.
The James and Keith Reveley team usually do well at Doncaster and the father and son combo have three strong each way chances at Doncaster. The mare CUE TO CUE was the nap in midweek, but has been saved for this race (the 2.20), and she has solid claims. There are some tough rivals in Alasi and Lifestyle, but both have flaws, with Alasi unseating last time out and the Nicky Henderson trained Lifestyle running over a shorter trip.
The other Reveley eye-catchers are CORKAGE and KINGS GREY who seeks to bounce back after consecutive seconds, often in unfortunate circumstances. His last run at Catterick was a muddling affair, and he came up short, when given a poor ride, seemingly with bundles in hand, going down by a short head. The race at Doncaster looks tough, but could cut up and, with jumping doubts about leading fancies. Corkage was successfully napped last Wednesday, and won at a canter, suggesting he still has plenty left in the tank, and should be able to defy his new mark, despite hurdling instead of chasing on this occasion.
The Skybet Chase looks a terrific race in prospect and CALGARY BAY could take all the beating for the in-form Henrietta Knight stable. The versatile nine year old looked back to his best when winning a competitive three mile handicap on New Years Day at Cheltenham, showing the class that he has always promised. He is 2lb well in as a result of that and, given his performance in winning this last year, he should go close.
His main threat will come from the recent course and distance winner QIANSHAN LEADER, who won a tricky handicap here in the mud, back in December. The Emma Lavelle horse thrived in the tougher conditions, and if the heavens open, it could further improve his chances seeking the hatrick under stable jockey Jack Doyle. It’s worth backing both in this open-looking contest.
2.05 Cheltenham - Poquelin
2.35 Cheltenham - Time for Rupert (Nap)
1.15 Doncaster – Cue to Cue (Ew)
2.20 Doncaster – Corkage (Nb)
2.50 Doncaster – Calgary Bay (Ew) & Qianshan Leader (Ew)
3.55 Doncaster – Kings Grey
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner @JJMSports
Monday, 14 March 2011
Cheltenham Tips - Day One
1.30 - Sprinter Sacre 1pt Win
2.05 - Medermit 3pt Win (NB)
2.40 - Reve de Sivola 1pt ew & Great Endeavour 1pt ew
3.20 - Hurricane Fly 2pt Win & Khyber Kim 1pt ew
4.00 - Garde Champetre 2pt Win & Poker de Sivola 1pt ew
4.40 - Quevega 5pt Win (Nap)
5.15 - Tullamore Dew 1pt ew & Quantitativeeasing 0.5pt ew & Swincombe Rock 0.5pt ew
Saturday, 12 March 2011
Champion Hurdle 2011 Preview
The Champion Hurdle is the showcase champion race on the opening day of the Festival, and there is one word that seems synonymous with the runners of the race - winners. The race this year has added spice to it, with winners from 3 of last year’s festival races all meeting in this year’s renewal of the Champion Hurdle. We have the Supreme Novices winner Menorah, the Neptune Novices winner; the unbeaten Peddlers Cross, and the reigning and defending Champion Hurdle winner Binocular. Not to mention the winner of the Irish Champion Hurdle Hurricane Fly, the Welsh Champion Oscar Whiskey, and the Kingwell Hurdle winner; Mille Chief.
The reigning champion is the Nicky Henderson trained BINOCULAR, who stormed up the hill, after being a worry to actually run. His trainer said he would not run after a disappointing trial, but sparkled on the gallops, and after being ante post favourite for around 6 months, went off 8/1 sixth favourite. He finished second in the Supreme Novices three years ago, then third in the Champion Hurdle two years ago, both of which going off a short favourite. The horse clearly has quality, but is temperamental, and needs things to go his well on the day. As reigning champion there is more pressure on Binocular, and in particularly AP McCoy, who has said he expects to win the race, and is his best chance of the meeting. He appears to be a temperamental sort, who can have an off day, as seen in his Champion Hurdle trial at Sandown last year, and again this year, with a very mundane and workman like performance. However he has shown that there is definitely something about him, and if the Binocular who won last year turns up fit and raring to go, the field are in deep trouble.
The Irish have made this race their own in recent years, mainly due to the wonder horse Istabraq, who sensationally won three consecutive champion hurdles from 1998-
Another challenger is the winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, and is unbeaten this year, Phillip Hobbs stable star MENORAH. He has built from his impressive Supreme Novice victory, by winning the Greatwood Hurdle carrying top weight. He then followed that up by blitzing this years Supreme Novice favourite Cue Card, and highly touted Paul Nicholls juvenile Silviano Conti by 4 lengths in the International Hurdle, again, at Cheltenham, giving the horses a 3/3 record at Prestbury Park. As impressive as both victories were in all 3
An interesting runner will be coming down from the north, and is the unbeaten PEDDLERS CROSS. The Donald McCain trained 6 year old, has gone from strength to strength, building on his Neptune Novice win, by going on to win at the Aintree festival, and was very impressive when beating Champion Hurdler Binocular in the rescheduled Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newbury. His credentials have been further boosted from his
It usually pays to follow previous winners from the
Predictions
- Binocular
- Menorah
- Khyber Kim
Jack Milner
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
Reveley's to carry on a family tradition
BARDOLET runs for the in form Reveley family in the 3.50 at Catterick on Wednesday, and has to be strongly fancied. The father and son partnership has been in impressive form this season, especially at northern tracks. Son and jockey, James is showing an £11.55 profit and father Keith a £34.45 profit for £1 staked on all runners this season. Bardolet finished a very good second to Duke of Ormond after a 49 day break last time out, and looks to be running off a very good handicap mark, receiving 11lb from top weight and expected favourite Topless. The Reveley’s won this race last year, and I expect Bardolet to run a big race for the duo once more.
The same partnership has another good chance at the same meeting, with FLORIDA’s PRIDE, who runs in the mares novice hurdle at 4.20. The mare ran in three novice hurdle races this time last year finishing eleventh, fourth and then second, gradually improving with each run. She has since been running on the flat, before reverting to hurdles last time out. She disappointed that day, finishing a 44 lengths sixth and well beaten, weakening badly 4 out before being eased down. However, she has had a break of 116 days and this may well have freshened her up.
The final horse is LANEGUY, our midweek Nap, who can defy a 7lb penalty, incurred after winning easily last time out. Trainer Tom George has had a renaissance in March, after a bit of a winner-drought in the first two months of the year. For the year he has a 9.5% strike rate, but in March the strike rate has been 30%, so he is a trainer bang in form. Laneguy won by 9 lengths last time out on soft ground, and seemed to really suit being dropped back in trip, running over 2m 1f, and now being dropped again to 2 miles, which should be further to his benefit.
Bardolet 3.50 Catterick Wednesday 1pt ew
Florida’s Pride 4.20 Catterick, Wednesday 1pt ew
Laneguy 2.00 Wincantion Thursday 3pt win NAP.
Tuesday, 8 February 2011
All roads lead to Cheltenham
Another week has gone by, and there seems to still be more questions than answers still, in the run up to the big meeting, the Cheltenham Festival during the middle of March.
Saturday was another stepping stone to the big week, with more contenders in question, with racing on at Ffos Las, Sandown and Wetherby. A large disappointment was the abandonment of a fantastic multiple grade one card at Leopardstown, with the Hennessy Gold Cup being the showpiece of a card that included exciting horses such as Zaidpour, Pride of Dulcote and Mikael D’haugenet to name but a few.
Focusing on the racing that did go ahead, the most visually impressive performance was in the valleys, for the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las, where the Nicky Henderson trained OSCAR WHISKY duly obliged as the 2/7 favourite won very easily, barely coming off the bridle, winning by 8 lengths. Although he didn’t have the strongest of fields to defeat, the horse should have been put into ideal shape for the Stanjames.com Champion Hurdle, where he is currently a 14/1 chance, from 18s at the beginning of the week. The reigning Champion Hurdler won the Totesport Contenders Hurdle for the second successive year, but like last years race, the 1/10 favourite did not seem to look and win like a 1/10 horse should. Binocular stalked the leader and took advantage of the 50/1 outsider’s mistake at the last to win by 2 lengths. Bookmaker reaction was to ease out the current market favourite to 7/2 from 3/1. Although not visually impressive, trainer Nicky Henderson insists the run will put him spot on for the showpiece on day 1 of the festival come March 15th.
MEDERMIT booked his place in this fields Arkle Chase with a victory in the Totesport Challengers Novice Chase, more commonly known as the Sicily Isles Novice Chase. The striking grey jumped cleanly and fluently throughout and cruised into contention three fences out before bounding clear over the final fence. The
Perhaps the most encouraging run of the weekend was that of the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained BABY RUN, The horse was cemented in Twiston-Davies folklore when capping off the greatest day of the trainers professional career, when winning the Foxhunters chase last year on Gold Cup day, marking a memorable treble, and even more memorable as it was ridden by the trainer’s son Sam. On Saturday it was the turn of young brother Willie, who rode the horse to an exemplary 37 length winning margin. The 11/8 favourite made all and won from the front, striding clear, with no other horse being able to keep up with the ferocious pace the hose set. The horse is currently 5/1 to repeat his success of last year, which seems a very tempting price, as if the horse turns up in similar form, it could look very generous indeed!
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