Calgary Bay warmed the cockles of this perennial old man’s heart on Saturday, and bagged The Yorkshireman another 12/1 winner for his loyal followers. There are three National Hunt fixtures on Wednesday (1st Feb) and I have spotted something worth backing at all three venues.
Firstly going to Newcastle and a horse I was clued up about from a very good source: the recent recruit for the Donald McCain yard BOURNE. This fellow formerly raced on the flat for Luca Cumani and has shown great promise over obstacles. He won his maiden hurdle in fine style, keeping on well over 2 miles 3 furlongs in the soft ground at Catterick. He disappointed next time out over two miles on better ground in a Class 3 novices hurdle, when never really travelling. The form of his first win has worked out well, with the second horse Into Wain winning two subsequent hurdle races.
We’ve had plenty success following James and Keith Reveley this season and they have a runner at the meeting too, with DANCING ART looking to go better than last time when perhaps an unlucky runner up after just failing by a short head. James takes the leg up this time instead of Richie McGrath. Running here over two and a half miles, this could bring the best out of him and, off bottom weight in the handicap, should go well.
MOSCOW CHANCER runs for the in form Tom George stable at Leicester. The stable are currently operating at a 27% strike rate since the New Year and are clearly going all guns, with both Baby Mix and Ut De Sivola in the reckoning for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Moscow Chancer has gradually improved this season, with his best effort being a creditable third over course and distance 22 days ago. He should come on for the run (he was having his first run for 76 days last time out). The well bred gelding could throw in a good run in a race where he is chucked in on a very workable handicap mark.
Staying at Leicester, BIG EASY hacked up last Saturday, confirming market confidence when beating a good field at Doncaster, including hat-trick seeking Corkage. He runs here with a 7lb penalty but is due to go up 14lb next time. Providing he has eaten up and Saturday’s race has not taken too much out of him, he should be somewhat of a penalty kick under stable deputy Tom O’ Brien.
The final selection runs at Ludlow where our recently tipped up winner for the J P Ferguson yard, MONARCHS WAY, looks to build on a promising hurdling career which has seen him perform with credit in all starts since joining the stable. He won his debut foray into handicaps, getting up late on to win by a neck. Raised 8lb for that, he still ran well next time out, finishing fourth of fifteen runners at Warwick, losing by 3 ½ lengths in what looks on paper like a good race. He is still well handicapped, and jockey Mr J Owen has a good record in these amateur only events.
1.20 Newcastle – Bourne (Nap)
2.50 Newcastle – Dancing Art (Nb)
3.00 Leicester – Moscow Chancer
3.30 Leicester – Big Easy
3.40 Ludlow – Monarchs Way
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner / @JJMSports
Showing posts with label J P Ferguson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J P Ferguson. Show all posts
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Sunday, 15 January 2012
A Family affair for the Reveley's at Southwell on Wednesday
A Family affair for the Reveley's at Southwell Wednesday
The weekend has thrown up a host of more questions, as opposed to answers. Swincombe Flame successfully taking the money in the William Hill Lanzariore Hurdle, under a terrific ride from young Will Kennedy, only to be tarnished with a 7 day ban for excessive use of the whip from the stewards under the shambolich new penalty system. Horses of note that come out well this weekend are Cotton Mill, Menorah, Saddlers Risk and others also laid down further credentials for their possible future dates at the Cheltenham Festival.
It has been another terrific week for the column's most promising young jockey JAMES REVELEY, who made a fine comeback from a potentially serioous concussion on Boxing Day with two winners on his first two runners back, completing a 70/1 double at Doncaster on Wednesday. He is back up north again Wednesday, with a terrific book of rides for his old man, and I think every single one of them has to be considered as having a good chance. In the last 12 months James has a 36% strike rate at Southwell, and in his last 11 rides there, has had 4 winners and a further 4 places.
Going through his rides, there are some with stronger claims than others, with an interesting one being SAMBELUCKY in the first. He has been in good form throughout the winter since winning a decent Catterick handicap, with the form coming out of the race working really well. He followed that up by a third, then a second at Huntingdon Friday, behind a seemingly well handicapped horse.
The best bet of the day looks certainly to be CORKAGE, who made amends for falling when seemingly having the race at his mercy at Catterick two starts ago, but duly obliged on James' first ride since injury at Doncaster in grand fashion. He travelled exceptionally well, and given the manner of his eight length victory, turned out under a 6lb penalty, he should be well ahead of the handicapper, to duly oblige for connections.
SAM D'OC was pulled up last time out after struggling with his jumping, when running in the same race as Sambelucky, when he finished third, and as such, is tried over hurdles here in the 1.45. The horse looked scared of the larger obstacles, and the move to hurdling could sparkle some old magic in the maiden, and could be a large price and a sleeper in the market.
NIGHT IN MILAN is another consistent sort who has been knocking on the door, with an unlucky second at Sedgfield, followed up by a rather laboured fourth at Market Rasen, when struggling with a 5lb hike from the handicapper. The well bred son of Milan carries the famous colours of Mr Richard Collins, and those have been seen to great effect this year, the white silks, with a blue V and a pink hat. The trainer/owner combo has placed in 45% of all stats, a comforting stat, and will be hoping to build on only one win in the last six weeks.
OAKSLANDS ELISE runs in the last, a National Hunt Flat race, and on paper, looks a very interesting prospect. Bred out of a multiple winning mare, and comes from a successful family, including two half brothers who have both won bumpers in the last 18 months. The stable are usually quite good at getting them ready first time out, with a 27% strike rate showing a +£7 profit to a £1 stake backing them in NHF races,
12.40 Southwell - Sambelucky (Nb)
13.10 Southwell - Corkage (Nap)
13.45 Southwell - Sam D'oc
14.50 Southwell - Night in Milan
15.55 Southwell - Oaklands Elise
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner @JJMSports
The weekend has thrown up a host of more questions, as opposed to answers. Swincombe Flame successfully taking the money in the William Hill Lanzariore Hurdle, under a terrific ride from young Will Kennedy, only to be tarnished with a 7 day ban for excessive use of the whip from the stewards under the shambolich new penalty system. Horses of note that come out well this weekend are Cotton Mill, Menorah, Saddlers Risk and others also laid down further credentials for their possible future dates at the Cheltenham Festival.
It has been another terrific week for the column's most promising young jockey JAMES REVELEY, who made a fine comeback from a potentially serioous concussion on Boxing Day with two winners on his first two runners back, completing a 70/1 double at Doncaster on Wednesday. He is back up north again Wednesday, with a terrific book of rides for his old man, and I think every single one of them has to be considered as having a good chance. In the last 12 months James has a 36% strike rate at Southwell, and in his last 11 rides there, has had 4 winners and a further 4 places.
Going through his rides, there are some with stronger claims than others, with an interesting one being SAMBELUCKY in the first. He has been in good form throughout the winter since winning a decent Catterick handicap, with the form coming out of the race working really well. He followed that up by a third, then a second at Huntingdon Friday, behind a seemingly well handicapped horse.
The best bet of the day looks certainly to be CORKAGE, who made amends for falling when seemingly having the race at his mercy at Catterick two starts ago, but duly obliged on James' first ride since injury at Doncaster in grand fashion. He travelled exceptionally well, and given the manner of his eight length victory, turned out under a 6lb penalty, he should be well ahead of the handicapper, to duly oblige for connections.
SAM D'OC was pulled up last time out after struggling with his jumping, when running in the same race as Sambelucky, when he finished third, and as such, is tried over hurdles here in the 1.45. The horse looked scared of the larger obstacles, and the move to hurdling could sparkle some old magic in the maiden, and could be a large price and a sleeper in the market.
NIGHT IN MILAN is another consistent sort who has been knocking on the door, with an unlucky second at Sedgfield, followed up by a rather laboured fourth at Market Rasen, when struggling with a 5lb hike from the handicapper. The well bred son of Milan carries the famous colours of Mr Richard Collins, and those have been seen to great effect this year, the white silks, with a blue V and a pink hat. The trainer/owner combo has placed in 45% of all stats, a comforting stat, and will be hoping to build on only one win in the last six weeks.
OAKSLANDS ELISE runs in the last, a National Hunt Flat race, and on paper, looks a very interesting prospect. Bred out of a multiple winning mare, and comes from a successful family, including two half brothers who have both won bumpers in the last 18 months. The stable are usually quite good at getting them ready first time out, with a 27% strike rate showing a +£7 profit to a £1 stake backing them in NHF races,
12.40 Southwell - Sambelucky (Nb)
13.10 Southwell - Corkage (Nap)
13.45 Southwell - Sam D'oc
14.50 Southwell - Night in Milan
15.55 Southwell - Oaklands Elise
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner @JJMSports
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Weekend Tipping at Kempton Park and Warwick - Saturday 14th January 2012
A terrific weekend of National Hunt sport once more, with Kempton putting on a fantastic card filled with variety and their highlight being the William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle. Warwick also have one of their strongest cards of the year, with the Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) being their showpiece, with the race being seen as a stepping stone to one of the novice races at the Cheltenham Festival.
A horse whom I have followed her progress for the last couple of months now is SWINCOMBE FLAME for the Nick Williams yard, who has had some very good success since switching hurdling. After winning two bumpers, one of which was a listed race at Sandown. Two wins and a second in three starts over hurdles, the mare has a lot of class about her, and got a good ride last time out under Will Kennedy, who retains the ride here once more. She is stepped up in trip to 2 miles 5 furlongs, over a was tipped up distance where she has the potential to thrive. The mare looks to be well treated, and the same connections won this race last year as well, so know what it takes to win a race of this calibre.
Emma Lavelle has treated followers of the column well in the last couple of months, and she has two more fancies, both running at Warwick. The first of note is HIGHLAND LODGE, who was tipped up last time out in a Haydock Novice Hurdle, and won in convincing manner, beating two subsequent winners, with some nice form in the book. The gelding now has two wins from two starts after winning a point to point in Ireland last spring. The well bred son of Flemensfirth has a tough race at this hands here, but given the manner of his previous victories, he could be very special. Cotton Mill and Barbatos look to be the most dangerous challenger of the field, in what looks like a relatively strong renewal.
Her other leading fancy comes in the last race on the card, the bumper, where LE BEC looks a very intruiging prospect. The yard has a 13% strike rate in NHF races, however a +£12.00 profit to a £1 stake, looks a fair better statistic for a yard who often slip under the radar, which bodes well in terms of value. At Warwick in bumpers, the yard is 1-2-5 from Warwick bumpers, and with no serious entries from suitors Nicholls, Henderson and Hobbs, he should give a good account of himself.
MONARCHS WAY was successfully tipped up last time out, and battled well when seemingly struggling with the Taunton undulations, as well as getting hampered three furlongs out. His neck winning margin means he is very well treated on his second run in handicap company. The form hasn't worked too well, but this beautifully bred gelding will surely have more to come for a training outfit going places, and with stable jockey Jack Quinlan having a tremendous record with 14 wins from 33 starts for the stable, and an impressive £30.98 profit to a £1 level stake.
EDUCATED EVANS looks to have the ability of a staying chaser in the making, with two terrific wins in good company at Newbury and an even more impressive win at Chepstow, being punted off the boards, before routing a field of eight runners by twenty two lengths on good ground in the stick South Wales track. The handicapper has raised him accordingly, but that might not be enough, and given how well the form has worked out, he should have a good chance with the third, fourth and fifth all coming out and winning, and the second and sixth finishing second, absolutely franked.
12.50 Warwick - Monarchs Way
14.00 Warwick - Educated Evans
15.05 Warwick - Highland Lodge
16.10 Warwick - Le Bec
15.20 Kemtpon - Swincombe Flame
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
A horse whom I have followed her progress for the last couple of months now is SWINCOMBE FLAME for the Nick Williams yard, who has had some very good success since switching hurdling. After winning two bumpers, one of which was a listed race at Sandown. Two wins and a second in three starts over hurdles, the mare has a lot of class about her, and got a good ride last time out under Will Kennedy, who retains the ride here once more. She is stepped up in trip to 2 miles 5 furlongs, over a was tipped up distance where she has the potential to thrive. The mare looks to be well treated, and the same connections won this race last year as well, so know what it takes to win a race of this calibre.
Emma Lavelle has treated followers of the column well in the last couple of months, and she has two more fancies, both running at Warwick. The first of note is HIGHLAND LODGE, who was tipped up last time out in a Haydock Novice Hurdle, and won in convincing manner, beating two subsequent winners, with some nice form in the book. The gelding now has two wins from two starts after winning a point to point in Ireland last spring. The well bred son of Flemensfirth has a tough race at this hands here, but given the manner of his previous victories, he could be very special. Cotton Mill and Barbatos look to be the most dangerous challenger of the field, in what looks like a relatively strong renewal.
Her other leading fancy comes in the last race on the card, the bumper, where LE BEC looks a very intruiging prospect. The yard has a 13% strike rate in NHF races, however a +£12.00 profit to a £1 stake, looks a fair better statistic for a yard who often slip under the radar, which bodes well in terms of value. At Warwick in bumpers, the yard is 1-2-5 from Warwick bumpers, and with no serious entries from suitors Nicholls, Henderson and Hobbs, he should give a good account of himself.
MONARCHS WAY was successfully tipped up last time out, and battled well when seemingly struggling with the Taunton undulations, as well as getting hampered three furlongs out. His neck winning margin means he is very well treated on his second run in handicap company. The form hasn't worked too well, but this beautifully bred gelding will surely have more to come for a training outfit going places, and with stable jockey Jack Quinlan having a tremendous record with 14 wins from 33 starts for the stable, and an impressive £30.98 profit to a £1 level stake.
EDUCATED EVANS looks to have the ability of a staying chaser in the making, with two terrific wins in good company at Newbury and an even more impressive win at Chepstow, being punted off the boards, before routing a field of eight runners by twenty two lengths on good ground in the stick South Wales track. The handicapper has raised him accordingly, but that might not be enough, and given how well the form has worked out, he should have a good chance with the third, fourth and fifth all coming out and winning, and the second and sixth finishing second, absolutely franked.
12.50 Warwick - Monarchs Way
14.00 Warwick - Educated Evans
15.05 Warwick - Highland Lodge
16.10 Warwick - Le Bec
15.20 Kemtpon - Swincombe Flame
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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