The Friday, the last day, and Gold Cup Day, and a day that has been historically a day of near misses for me, given the last couple of seasons. Boston Bob, Burton Port, Grumeti and Chapoturgeon were bad results last year, hopefully we can convert places into winners in the same manner that Jesus did with the loaves and the fishes.
The Triumph Hurdle
Nicky Henderson has an extremely strong record in the race, and is often the leading trainer to follow, usually excelling with his juvenile hurdling recruits from France. He has Rolling Star at the head of the market, which was impressive on UK debut, beating Irish Saint at Cheltenham. He has said however that he has better options at home, and the likes of Courtesy Call, Megalypos and Alexandre Six could be worth a look prior to their next potential runs. Willie Mullins has strong contenders in Diakali, Blood Cotil and Fatcatinthehat, but options are still open and don’t appeal as ante post propositions. John Quinn won the race last year with Countrywide Flame, and he has two live contenders Hidden Justice and Kashmir Peak, but the best option could be with a trainer that is yet to win the race; with Dessie Hughes. Our Conor looks a very smart recruit, and is 2/2 since hurdling, showing a very smart action and a powerful turn of foot. Connections are very hopeful of this well bred son of Jeremy, and the plan is to run in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown Sunday, weather permitting, then Cheltenham bound. He is still 16/1 in places.
The County Hurdle
A race historically that is a minefield. Three categories can usually separate contenders, those who continue winning, and raised in the handicap accordingly, those that are trickling down, and unexposed juveniles. It is hard to assess ante post, with the likes of Cause of Causes and Cash and Go being the leading performers in the two mile handicap hurdles this season, and are respected. There are usually leading pointers coming from Ireland in the weeks before, and that will be a better guide to the market. They have a cracking record in the race, winning five out of the last six renewals, Willie Mullins winning two of them. Trifolium could be one to keep on side of, despite flopping in The Fighting Fifth Hurdle, his Supreme form looks good. Abbey Lane won The Boylesports Hurdle, so will be fancied ahead of this, but Ted Veale, who finished fourth, should be suited to a stronger pace, that you will get in this.
The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
A race that has served me well, The Albert Bartlett, where there is generally a bit of each way value around. The market surrounds Irish horses that aren’t guaranteed to run, the likes of Ballycasey, Pont Alexandre, Our Vinnie, Rule the World and Champagne Fever. Similarly, Road to Riches, Shutthefrontdoor, Utopie Des Bordes, Gevrey Chambertin and Taquin De Seuil are likely to take up other options. The most obvious bet from an ante post perspective is Coneygree is a half-brother to the wonderful stayer Carruthers, so he should relish this trip, and was an emphatic course and distance winner at Prestbury Park in December. He ran a cracking race in defeat behind The New One and At Fishers Cross, when just done for a turn of foot. He is an all-out stayer and an absolute grinder. I expect he will lead from start to finish and not see another rival. At his current double figure price, he is ludicrous value. I’ve backed him at 12/1, 10/1 and 8/1 throughout the season.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup
For me, The Gold Cup has been a two horse race for the past nine months, and I can’t see it changing anytime soon. I piled into Bobs Worth at 8/1 and Sir Des Champs at 6/1 back last year, and look to be in a very healthy position, five weeks before it all kicks off. I’ll start with their rivals. Long Run makes too many jumping errors for my liking, and looks prone to fresher legs. Can not have Silviniaco Conti, a horse who finished behind Menorah and Cue Card in his only run at the track. He doesn’t strike me as a ‘Gold Cup horse’. First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay finished ahead of Flemenstar in The Lexus Chase, and both were behind Bobs Worth in The Hennessy, I see no reason why the form should be reversed. Unless it is with Sir Des Champs, who stayed really well up the hill, and providing the jumping mistakes are eradicated, can better them, it’s just a matter of whether he can better Bobs Worth.
The Foxhunters Chase
This was a disaster personally last year, as I backed Chapoturgeon, who absolutely cruised through the race, before being out-battled in the finish by The Irish horse Salsify. He was mightily impressive on his seasonal appearance however, and I would be tempted to get involved again, barring the way he ended the race last year. Cloudy Lane is a contender, but his target is likely to be Aintree equivalent. Salsify won the race last year, and has been brought along nicely, with two seconds in hunter chases in Ireland. He will get better as the season progresses, and has to be respected. Nothing in the portfolio at the moment, but if I had to have a bet, Chapoturgeon would be given another chance.
The Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle
Again, still scarred from Toner D’oudaries not seeing out the race last year, done prohibitively short in running, after sauntering up the hill, was nabbed by Attaglance of Malcolm Jefferson. Like most handicaps alluded to in here, David Pipe is the man to watch, he’ll want to win this, as it’s his Dad’s race – go figure. Katkeau was all the rage on British debut, but met trouble in running, not getting any breaks. He or a prototype such as him could be fancied over the trip. It’s over the extended two and a half miles, and Pipe could have recent winners such as Swing Bowler, Top Gamble, Heath Hunter, or Welsh Champion Hurdle third Tanerko Emery, who would be at the top of the shortlist.
The Jonny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Much to the same tone of the previous comments, Nicky Henderson will assemble as much arsenal as he can to fire at this, named after his late father. He had five in the race last year, and completed a 1-2. This year, he’ll have a further hatful, with the likes of Kid Cassidy, Tanks for That, French Opera and Anquetta. Some handicap chasers to have on the radar, who have run well this season, and may come into contention, are Sire De Grugy, Kumbeshwar, Drumshambo, De Boitron, Dan Breen and Renard.
Best Bet – Coneygree
Next Best – Our Conor
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Thursday, 7 February 2013
Monday, 4 February 2013
Cheltenham Day Three - Ante Post Thoughts
The third day is a good day for the broad minded punter, with some very open races already from an ante post perspective. With no Big Bucks in The World Hurdle, and a host of protagonists in The Ryanair, it looks to be a salivating prospect already, six weeks in advance.
The Jewson Novices Chase
Generally a punter friendly race, with Wishfull Thinking getting beat by Noble Prince in 2011, and well backed second favourite Sir Des Champs winning for Willie Mullins last year, He has a few contenders should they run in Arvika Ligeonniere, Boston Bob and Rupert Lamb, but his best chance looks Aupcharlie. He didn't seemingly stay out his last two runs over three miles, and will be better suited to the drop back in trip. Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan is the obvious fancy for this if running to avoid Simonsig, and also has Hadrians Approach and Broadback Bob as insurance. Captain Conan was laboured over the trip primarily due to the desperate ground at Sandown, and although unimpressive, he is better than that. I will look to recoup many squandered ante post vouchers on the strong jumping six year old; he is still the likeliest winner, with Nicky Henderson sending him to avoid Simonsig in The Arkle.
The Pertemps Final
A race that generally goes to stereotypically shrewd connections, with the likes of Jonjo O’ Neill, David Pipe, Malcolm Jefferson and Nigel Twiston-Davies training multiple winners of the race in recent years. Plenty of money for Paul Nicholls’s Sam Winner, Rangitoto and American Trilogy since the entries were announced, but I personally couldn’t have any. It would be folly to bet on a Cheltenham handicap so far in advance, but David Pipe’s entries must be taken note of. He has Close House, Goulanes, Gevrey Chambertin and The Package all entered. Serious support close to the day should be respected. Veterans with course form should be the ones to be considered for the shortlist.
The Ryanair Chase
Since the origin of this race, it has been a warm attraction for those ‘in-between’ horses, not enough stamina for The Gold Cup, not enough speed for The Champion Chase. As such, horses such as Cue Card, Captain Chris and Flemenstar are really not my cup of tea for a race like this. Riverside Theatre won this last year thanks to a masterful ride from Barry Geraghty, and it looks like he will have the option of him or Finians Rainbow. Based on his wins in The Champion Chase last year, and The Melling Chase at Aintree, he is a big player if he were to turn up on the day. The Ante Post play surely has to be Champion Court for Martin Keighley, who was second at The Festival over course and distance last year to Gold Cup fancy Sir Des Champs. He ran a game race without staying in The King George, and his form with Williams Wishes at Ascot already looks strong. He is a course and distance specialist, and is almost certain to run. The 10/1 about him looks good value. First Lieutenant is a spring horse, and should he run, would be a big player, with form with Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth to his name. I’ve had a nibble with him at 12/1.
The World Hurdle
Since Big Bucks ruled out, I got delving into the form book to pick out a bit of value, and thankfully, both my fancies have shortened up after winning 3 miles Graded races since. MONKSLAND looks the most likely winner to me, brought steadily along by Dessie Hughes, and won emphatically last time out at Fairyhouse, beating Zaidpour in fine style, seeing the trip out well. He would have got closer to Simonsig in The Neptune had he not been hampered by Cotton Mill, and has the unexposed profile to make a splash. Reve De Sivola is a tough as old boots, with fantastic Cheltenham form to his name, and goes on any ground. Second to Peddlers Cross in a Neptune Hurdle, and a good winner of The Cleeve Hurdle ahead of Oscar Whisky last time out. I’ve backed Reve De Sivola at 8/1 and Monksland at 16/1 ante post. Oscar Whisky is not a three mile horse, and his class can only get him so far. The rest at the head of the market are unlikely to run, the likes of Peddlers Cross, Right of Passage, Smad Place, Tidal Bay, Grands Crus, Get Me Out of Here, Quevega, Cape Tribulation, Dynaste, Thousand Stars, Zaidpour, Riverside Theatre, Back in Focus, Kentford Grey Lady. Although the market looks wide open, it really isn’t. The main dangers look to be smart recent winners in Ireland, Bog Warrior and Solwhit, but Bog Warrior looks ground dependant, and Solwhit is yet to run over further than two and a half miles.
The Byrne Group Plate
A trappy handicap, where again the shrewd trainers thrive, think the Pipe, Henderson and Williams yards, they usually have an animal laid out for it, last year David Pipe made no secret that Salut Flo was his best handicapped horse of the festival, and so it turned out. Little can be said until the weights are announced, but horses such as Notus De La Tour, Havingotascoobydo, Salut Flo, Consigliere, Divers would be of interest given the current ante post market. JP McManus horses will likely to be punted in the run up; Cantlow will be entered in anything and everything.
The Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Another one for gambles, it’s Cheltenham, what else? Sunnyhillboy and Junior; the last two winners were heavily backed favourites, and like Ballabriggs before him, you’re looking for unexposed staying chasers, with a grander view to the Grand National. Although those the age of ten generally fare poorly, as usual, it’s best to keep a check on the entries, and more importantly the market early. Goulanes would be of interest wherever he goes after staying on like a train to win a novice chase at Wetherby at the weekend, and wherever he goes, will be of great interest.
Best Bet – Monksland
Next Best – Champion Court
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
The Jewson Novices Chase
Generally a punter friendly race, with Wishfull Thinking getting beat by Noble Prince in 2011, and well backed second favourite Sir Des Champs winning for Willie Mullins last year, He has a few contenders should they run in Arvika Ligeonniere, Boston Bob and Rupert Lamb, but his best chance looks Aupcharlie. He didn't seemingly stay out his last two runs over three miles, and will be better suited to the drop back in trip. Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan is the obvious fancy for this if running to avoid Simonsig, and also has Hadrians Approach and Broadback Bob as insurance. Captain Conan was laboured over the trip primarily due to the desperate ground at Sandown, and although unimpressive, he is better than that. I will look to recoup many squandered ante post vouchers on the strong jumping six year old; he is still the likeliest winner, with Nicky Henderson sending him to avoid Simonsig in The Arkle.
The Pertemps Final
A race that generally goes to stereotypically shrewd connections, with the likes of Jonjo O’ Neill, David Pipe, Malcolm Jefferson and Nigel Twiston-Davies training multiple winners of the race in recent years. Plenty of money for Paul Nicholls’s Sam Winner, Rangitoto and American Trilogy since the entries were announced, but I personally couldn’t have any. It would be folly to bet on a Cheltenham handicap so far in advance, but David Pipe’s entries must be taken note of. He has Close House, Goulanes, Gevrey Chambertin and The Package all entered. Serious support close to the day should be respected. Veterans with course form should be the ones to be considered for the shortlist.
The Ryanair Chase
Since the origin of this race, it has been a warm attraction for those ‘in-between’ horses, not enough stamina for The Gold Cup, not enough speed for The Champion Chase. As such, horses such as Cue Card, Captain Chris and Flemenstar are really not my cup of tea for a race like this. Riverside Theatre won this last year thanks to a masterful ride from Barry Geraghty, and it looks like he will have the option of him or Finians Rainbow. Based on his wins in The Champion Chase last year, and The Melling Chase at Aintree, he is a big player if he were to turn up on the day. The Ante Post play surely has to be Champion Court for Martin Keighley, who was second at The Festival over course and distance last year to Gold Cup fancy Sir Des Champs. He ran a game race without staying in The King George, and his form with Williams Wishes at Ascot already looks strong. He is a course and distance specialist, and is almost certain to run. The 10/1 about him looks good value. First Lieutenant is a spring horse, and should he run, would be a big player, with form with Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth to his name. I’ve had a nibble with him at 12/1.
The World Hurdle
Since Big Bucks ruled out, I got delving into the form book to pick out a bit of value, and thankfully, both my fancies have shortened up after winning 3 miles Graded races since. MONKSLAND looks the most likely winner to me, brought steadily along by Dessie Hughes, and won emphatically last time out at Fairyhouse, beating Zaidpour in fine style, seeing the trip out well. He would have got closer to Simonsig in The Neptune had he not been hampered by Cotton Mill, and has the unexposed profile to make a splash. Reve De Sivola is a tough as old boots, with fantastic Cheltenham form to his name, and goes on any ground. Second to Peddlers Cross in a Neptune Hurdle, and a good winner of The Cleeve Hurdle ahead of Oscar Whisky last time out. I’ve backed Reve De Sivola at 8/1 and Monksland at 16/1 ante post. Oscar Whisky is not a three mile horse, and his class can only get him so far. The rest at the head of the market are unlikely to run, the likes of Peddlers Cross, Right of Passage, Smad Place, Tidal Bay, Grands Crus, Get Me Out of Here, Quevega, Cape Tribulation, Dynaste, Thousand Stars, Zaidpour, Riverside Theatre, Back in Focus, Kentford Grey Lady. Although the market looks wide open, it really isn’t. The main dangers look to be smart recent winners in Ireland, Bog Warrior and Solwhit, but Bog Warrior looks ground dependant, and Solwhit is yet to run over further than two and a half miles.
The Byrne Group Plate
A trappy handicap, where again the shrewd trainers thrive, think the Pipe, Henderson and Williams yards, they usually have an animal laid out for it, last year David Pipe made no secret that Salut Flo was his best handicapped horse of the festival, and so it turned out. Little can be said until the weights are announced, but horses such as Notus De La Tour, Havingotascoobydo, Salut Flo, Consigliere, Divers would be of interest given the current ante post market. JP McManus horses will likely to be punted in the run up; Cantlow will be entered in anything and everything.
The Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Another one for gambles, it’s Cheltenham, what else? Sunnyhillboy and Junior; the last two winners were heavily backed favourites, and like Ballabriggs before him, you’re looking for unexposed staying chasers, with a grander view to the Grand National. Although those the age of ten generally fare poorly, as usual, it’s best to keep a check on the entries, and more importantly the market early. Goulanes would be of interest wherever he goes after staying on like a train to win a novice chase at Wetherby at the weekend, and wherever he goes, will be of great interest.
Best Bet – Monksland
Next Best – Champion Court
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Sunday, 27 January 2013
Cheltenham Day Two - Ante Post Thoughts
The second day is probably the most varied card of the week. Plenty of opportunities to make a few quid ante post here.
The National Hunt Chase
The first race is The National Hunt Chase, and I am very smug and pleased to have backed Teaforthree last year at 14/1, hopefully history repeats itself? A horse who looks an absolute out and out stayer is Vesper Bell for Willie Mullins. It is an incredible looking at the market, just how ludicrous some quotes are for horses that are unlikely to run, but 10/1 seems very fair. He is very unexposed, and beat potential Jewson horse Aupcharlie on debut, and has only had seven subsequent starts, the last winning a three mile chase at Punchestown, and looked to have plenty left in the tank, he’s the one for me. Looking at the market, very few look likely to run at the moment, the two obvious possibilities would be Keppols Hill and Rival D’Estruval. Godsmejudge is an interesting one, similar profile, steadily brought along, unexposed and an out and out stayer. At 20/1, he could be a lively outsider.
The Neptune Novices Hurdle
I’ve been a bit of a busy boy here, and already backed a few at decent prices. I flagged up The New One after winning at Cheltenham in October, and William Hill stuck their necks on the line, and went stand out 16/1 – it had to be taken. Even though he was chinned by At Fishers Cross last time out, he still sets a good standard around Prestbury Park, although his current price is a bit short for me. I backed Clondaw Kaempfer prior to his run in The Challow Hurdle, and think he got beaten by the ground more than anything. I’m on him at 16/1, and could be worth another nibble at 20/1, if the reports from Donald McCain are favourable. Pont Alexander and Taquin Du Seuil are two I am opposed, and the last one I have in the arsenal is Puffin Billy. He would be my initial prospect for next year’s RSA Chase, looks a lovely prospect and could be anything. He is the saver at 10/1. I still think The New One is the one to beat on all known form, although Puffin Billy carries maximum respect.
The RSA Chase
I pick two horses to follow based on their hurdling form, and how I think they will revert to fences, and generally come close when it comes to The RSA Chase, last year my two were Grands Crus (6/1) and Bobs Worth (10/1) ante post. The two I sided with this year are Boston Bob and Fingal Bay, both at 10/1. Fingal Bay proved to me to not back Phillip Hobbs horses, but I still like Boston Bob, and his chasing debut showed he has a natural flair for jumping. He wants three miles on good ground, and the 7/1 with Ladbrokes is tempting to back again. Dynaste won’t want a slog or a battle, and is skinny from an ante post perspective, I wouldn’t rule out David Pipe sending him to The Jewson. The rest all have muddling form, Our Father and Hadrians Approach look vulnerable. Willie Mullins will likely send Back in Focus and Aupcharlie elsewhere, and I don’t like Nicholls’s Rocky Creek, Unioniste and Sire Collognes. There isn’t an awful lot out there to beat.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase
Backed Sprinter Sacre in October at 5/4, and he will win by twelve lengths, Sizing Europe second if runs.
The Coral Cup
Again, not one from an ante post perspective, but those who appear well handicapped and likely to run at this moment in time look to be the David Pipe pair of Swing Bowler and Gevrey Chambertin. Both unbeaten hurdling this season, and look to have some lenient marks, with plenty of improvement to come from the stoutly bred duo.
The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
Minefield. To sum up. If you’ve had a bet in this, you are clearly in the know. Call Me Bubbles and Fatcatinthehat would be an interesting for Willie Mullins, who look likely to miss other races, and are down the pecking order of his juvenile hurdlers. Definitely not one to get involved in for me at such an early stage.
Champion Bumper
Another race I try to not get too involved in, as there is more guess work here than at a Derren Brown episode of cloak and dagger, I did have a nibble on Golantilla after his win at Cork at 10/1, but it’s a cautious one, even though he has a massive reputation, and a cracking turn of foot. Moyle Park has form tied in with Blackmail, and both could be lively ones come closer to the day.
Best Bet - Boston Bob
Next Best - The New One
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
The National Hunt Chase
The first race is The National Hunt Chase, and I am very smug and pleased to have backed Teaforthree last year at 14/1, hopefully history repeats itself? A horse who looks an absolute out and out stayer is Vesper Bell for Willie Mullins. It is an incredible looking at the market, just how ludicrous some quotes are for horses that are unlikely to run, but 10/1 seems very fair. He is very unexposed, and beat potential Jewson horse Aupcharlie on debut, and has only had seven subsequent starts, the last winning a three mile chase at Punchestown, and looked to have plenty left in the tank, he’s the one for me. Looking at the market, very few look likely to run at the moment, the two obvious possibilities would be Keppols Hill and Rival D’Estruval. Godsmejudge is an interesting one, similar profile, steadily brought along, unexposed and an out and out stayer. At 20/1, he could be a lively outsider.
The Neptune Novices Hurdle
I’ve been a bit of a busy boy here, and already backed a few at decent prices. I flagged up The New One after winning at Cheltenham in October, and William Hill stuck their necks on the line, and went stand out 16/1 – it had to be taken. Even though he was chinned by At Fishers Cross last time out, he still sets a good standard around Prestbury Park, although his current price is a bit short for me. I backed Clondaw Kaempfer prior to his run in The Challow Hurdle, and think he got beaten by the ground more than anything. I’m on him at 16/1, and could be worth another nibble at 20/1, if the reports from Donald McCain are favourable. Pont Alexander and Taquin Du Seuil are two I am opposed, and the last one I have in the arsenal is Puffin Billy. He would be my initial prospect for next year’s RSA Chase, looks a lovely prospect and could be anything. He is the saver at 10/1. I still think The New One is the one to beat on all known form, although Puffin Billy carries maximum respect.
The RSA Chase
I pick two horses to follow based on their hurdling form, and how I think they will revert to fences, and generally come close when it comes to The RSA Chase, last year my two were Grands Crus (6/1) and Bobs Worth (10/1) ante post. The two I sided with this year are Boston Bob and Fingal Bay, both at 10/1. Fingal Bay proved to me to not back Phillip Hobbs horses, but I still like Boston Bob, and his chasing debut showed he has a natural flair for jumping. He wants three miles on good ground, and the 7/1 with Ladbrokes is tempting to back again. Dynaste won’t want a slog or a battle, and is skinny from an ante post perspective, I wouldn’t rule out David Pipe sending him to The Jewson. The rest all have muddling form, Our Father and Hadrians Approach look vulnerable. Willie Mullins will likely send Back in Focus and Aupcharlie elsewhere, and I don’t like Nicholls’s Rocky Creek, Unioniste and Sire Collognes. There isn’t an awful lot out there to beat.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase
Backed Sprinter Sacre in October at 5/4, and he will win by twelve lengths, Sizing Europe second if runs.
The Coral Cup
Again, not one from an ante post perspective, but those who appear well handicapped and likely to run at this moment in time look to be the David Pipe pair of Swing Bowler and Gevrey Chambertin. Both unbeaten hurdling this season, and look to have some lenient marks, with plenty of improvement to come from the stoutly bred duo.
The Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle
Minefield. To sum up. If you’ve had a bet in this, you are clearly in the know. Call Me Bubbles and Fatcatinthehat would be an interesting for Willie Mullins, who look likely to miss other races, and are down the pecking order of his juvenile hurdlers. Definitely not one to get involved in for me at such an early stage.
Champion Bumper
Another race I try to not get too involved in, as there is more guess work here than at a Derren Brown episode of cloak and dagger, I did have a nibble on Golantilla after his win at Cork at 10/1, but it’s a cautious one, even though he has a massive reputation, and a cracking turn of foot. Moyle Park has form tied in with Blackmail, and both could be lively ones come closer to the day.
Best Bet - Boston Bob
Next Best - The New One
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Cheltenham Day One - Ante Post Thoughts
I’ll try and collate my ante post thoughts, as well as already outlaying the portfolio. Some ante post players are obviously looking better than others!
The Supreme Novices Hurdle
I wrote pieces on both My Tent or Yours and Waaheb, both prior to their hurdling debuts, and I am still big fans of both. My Tent or Yours has been backed at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1, with Waheeb being taken at 12/1, 10/1, and once again at 16/1 with the drift after his second to Jezki last time out. I still like both, with preference for Nicky Henderson’s charge. He tanks through his races, and will be well suited to the fast pace, and like Waaheb, should improve with better ground. Jezki has run well in muddling graded races in Ireland, and despite being snapped up by JP, still doesn’t appeal at the prices. Nor does Un Atout or River Maigue, very short for winning nothing races last time out. I don’t like Paul Nicholls horses, so would be opposed to Dodging Bullets, and Puffin Billy and Melodic Rendezvous are likely to go for The Neptune instead.
The Arkle Chase
This looks to be a graveyard from an ante post perspective, as my most backed horse, that I really got stuck into, doesn’t even look likely to run. Captain Conan is still the value call for me if runs, and I think he looks a very smart chaser, winning over course and distance already this year, and following up smartly at Sandown. He’s been backed at 14/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 7/1, and would love to see him take on Simonsig. I have also backed Colour Squadron and Sire De Grugy at 20/1 as savers, but it is looking bleak. Looking at the market at the moment now, it is a definite no bet. Simonsig is very short, I don’t think Overturn represents value, with nothing else likely to run. Arvika Ligeonniare fell in the Irish Arkle, and at around the 10/1 mark, if forced to have a bet, that would be the each way play.
The Festival Handicap Chase
I will be sticking with two regular selections of mine, who both ran in the race with credit last year, and both look to be still well handicapped. The Package and Fruity ‘O Rooney look to have been laid out for this race throughout the season, and although no bets at the moment, I could be tempted very shortly.
The Champion Hurdle
I was unimpressed by Hurricane Fly’s run in The Irish Champion Hurdle, it was all so very similar, beating the same horses, by the same margins, it is rather worthless form. The horse I have been backing for the best part of 18 months for this race remains my selection – Grandouet. His re-appearance after a year out in The International was a fantastic run, and bearing in mind he gave a race fit Zarkander 4lb, to lose by two lengths was an excellent effort. He has course form, will relish better ground and a quicker pace, Barry Geraghty will hit the last still on the snaff. Irrespective what happens at Cheltenham aside from this, Grandouet wins, and it’s a happy and profitable Cheltenham. Two small savers are on Darlan and Oscar Whisky, both at 16/1.
The Cross Country Chase
I wouldn’t particularly like to get involved in a race like this, and haven’t done thus far. The two likely to tempt me are Balthazar King and Uncle Junior, both have won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course in the last season, and both have a touch of class, but I won’t be getting involved ante post.
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Quevega wins. Lump on the day, no play ante post.
Centenary Novices Chase
I’d be lucky to back the winner on the day, let alone seven weeks before, when the usual suspects, Henderson, Pipe et al, have yet to properly have a plot for this. There are a couple of eye-catchers with entries however. JP has two of them, Colour Squadron and Cantlow. Both look to want further judging by their novices chases, and if they start being nibbled in the market, it would be a very good sign indeed.
Best Bet - Grandouet
Next Best - My Tent Or Yours
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
The Supreme Novices Hurdle
I wrote pieces on both My Tent or Yours and Waaheb, both prior to their hurdling debuts, and I am still big fans of both. My Tent or Yours has been backed at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1, with Waheeb being taken at 12/1, 10/1, and once again at 16/1 with the drift after his second to Jezki last time out. I still like both, with preference for Nicky Henderson’s charge. He tanks through his races, and will be well suited to the fast pace, and like Waaheb, should improve with better ground. Jezki has run well in muddling graded races in Ireland, and despite being snapped up by JP, still doesn’t appeal at the prices. Nor does Un Atout or River Maigue, very short for winning nothing races last time out. I don’t like Paul Nicholls horses, so would be opposed to Dodging Bullets, and Puffin Billy and Melodic Rendezvous are likely to go for The Neptune instead.
The Arkle Chase
This looks to be a graveyard from an ante post perspective, as my most backed horse, that I really got stuck into, doesn’t even look likely to run. Captain Conan is still the value call for me if runs, and I think he looks a very smart chaser, winning over course and distance already this year, and following up smartly at Sandown. He’s been backed at 14/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 7/1, and would love to see him take on Simonsig. I have also backed Colour Squadron and Sire De Grugy at 20/1 as savers, but it is looking bleak. Looking at the market at the moment now, it is a definite no bet. Simonsig is very short, I don’t think Overturn represents value, with nothing else likely to run. Arvika Ligeonniare fell in the Irish Arkle, and at around the 10/1 mark, if forced to have a bet, that would be the each way play.
The Festival Handicap Chase
I will be sticking with two regular selections of mine, who both ran in the race with credit last year, and both look to be still well handicapped. The Package and Fruity ‘O Rooney look to have been laid out for this race throughout the season, and although no bets at the moment, I could be tempted very shortly.
The Champion Hurdle
I was unimpressed by Hurricane Fly’s run in The Irish Champion Hurdle, it was all so very similar, beating the same horses, by the same margins, it is rather worthless form. The horse I have been backing for the best part of 18 months for this race remains my selection – Grandouet. His re-appearance after a year out in The International was a fantastic run, and bearing in mind he gave a race fit Zarkander 4lb, to lose by two lengths was an excellent effort. He has course form, will relish better ground and a quicker pace, Barry Geraghty will hit the last still on the snaff. Irrespective what happens at Cheltenham aside from this, Grandouet wins, and it’s a happy and profitable Cheltenham. Two small savers are on Darlan and Oscar Whisky, both at 16/1.
The Cross Country Chase
I wouldn’t particularly like to get involved in a race like this, and haven’t done thus far. The two likely to tempt me are Balthazar King and Uncle Junior, both have won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course in the last season, and both have a touch of class, but I won’t be getting involved ante post.
David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
Quevega wins. Lump on the day, no play ante post.
Centenary Novices Chase
I’d be lucky to back the winner on the day, let alone seven weeks before, when the usual suspects, Henderson, Pipe et al, have yet to properly have a plot for this. There are a couple of eye-catchers with entries however. JP has two of them, Colour Squadron and Cantlow. Both look to want further judging by their novices chases, and if they start being nibbled in the market, it would be a very good sign indeed.
Best Bet - Grandouet
Next Best - My Tent Or Yours
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Monday, 14 January 2013
Weekend Racing De-Brief
12.30 Wetherby – Many Clouds. IR Low 2.32, finishing position – 2nd
Many Clouds travelled nicely for Leighton Aspell, but was a very questionable ride, with Jason Maguire able to make all on second favourite Up and Go. Many Clouds got caught in a pocket behind two stragglers about half a mile out, before making stealthy late headway, to make around fifteen lengths, to take second late on. Giving weight to the winner, he may need further, but looks a very smart novice hurdler, and is highly thought of by trainer Oliver Sherwood.
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master. IR Low 1.37, finishing position – 2nd
Another disappointing result with Poole Master travelling like a dream throughout, and watching the replay, I was still shocked to see him lose. Tom Scudamore presses on early, and has them all at it about three out, before being seemingly outstayed by Fourjacks. The winner got a lovely ride by Brian Harding, and both pull clear from the third. Poole Master may be put away for a two and a half mile handicap chase at Cheltenham, and I wouldn’t write him off.
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge. IR Low 1.95, finishing position – 3rd
Highland Lodge was well backed before the off, but just like last year, he really didn’t appreciate the track, and his normally impressive jumping, was disappointing and sketchy. He looked awkward at his fences, and carried his head to the left, and set the race up for Rocky Creek. I would write off the race, as he clearly doesn’t handle the track. I wouldn’t consider him an RSA horse, but could be a sleeper if aiming for The JLT Speciality Handicap Chase over three miles on the first day.
2.25 Warwick – The Package. IR Low 2.1, finishing position – PU.
The biggest disappointment of the day, The Package travelled like a dream before meeting the third last all wrong and losing all momentum. Understandable why he traded so low, before three out, six of them pulled clear, and the place money looked absolutely guaranteed. I still think the world of him, and have to think the three mile handicap chase would be his aim for the season, if not The National. I will still be backing him where he goes next, and think he is a superstar.
3.00 Warwick – The New One. IR Low N/A, finishing position – 1st.
Won stylishly, and would be a definite player in The Neptune, having already got course and distance form, and is now the clear favourite for the two and a half mile contest. The trainer and jockey think the world of him, and he looks a very smart animal.
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge. IR Low 1.01, finishing position - 2nd.
Ran a stormer to get gubbed by Rigaden De Beauchene after out-battling Pete the Feat after jumping the last. Done at 1.01 on Betfair, it was a real blow, and really cemented the day’s over-riding emotion of so close and yet so far. A tremendous ride from Wayne Hutchinson, who was niggling away on the final bend, there will be a big prize awaiting Godsmejudge, who may go for something like The Eider Chase, or The Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Many Clouds travelled nicely for Leighton Aspell, but was a very questionable ride, with Jason Maguire able to make all on second favourite Up and Go. Many Clouds got caught in a pocket behind two stragglers about half a mile out, before making stealthy late headway, to make around fifteen lengths, to take second late on. Giving weight to the winner, he may need further, but looks a very smart novice hurdler, and is highly thought of by trainer Oliver Sherwood.
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master. IR Low 1.37, finishing position – 2nd
Another disappointing result with Poole Master travelling like a dream throughout, and watching the replay, I was still shocked to see him lose. Tom Scudamore presses on early, and has them all at it about three out, before being seemingly outstayed by Fourjacks. The winner got a lovely ride by Brian Harding, and both pull clear from the third. Poole Master may be put away for a two and a half mile handicap chase at Cheltenham, and I wouldn’t write him off.
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge. IR Low 1.95, finishing position – 3rd
Highland Lodge was well backed before the off, but just like last year, he really didn’t appreciate the track, and his normally impressive jumping, was disappointing and sketchy. He looked awkward at his fences, and carried his head to the left, and set the race up for Rocky Creek. I would write off the race, as he clearly doesn’t handle the track. I wouldn’t consider him an RSA horse, but could be a sleeper if aiming for The JLT Speciality Handicap Chase over three miles on the first day.
2.25 Warwick – The Package. IR Low 2.1, finishing position – PU.
The biggest disappointment of the day, The Package travelled like a dream before meeting the third last all wrong and losing all momentum. Understandable why he traded so low, before three out, six of them pulled clear, and the place money looked absolutely guaranteed. I still think the world of him, and have to think the three mile handicap chase would be his aim for the season, if not The National. I will still be backing him where he goes next, and think he is a superstar.
3.00 Warwick – The New One. IR Low N/A, finishing position – 1st.
Won stylishly, and would be a definite player in The Neptune, having already got course and distance form, and is now the clear favourite for the two and a half mile contest. The trainer and jockey think the world of him, and he looks a very smart animal.
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge. IR Low 1.01, finishing position - 2nd.
Ran a stormer to get gubbed by Rigaden De Beauchene after out-battling Pete the Feat after jumping the last. Done at 1.01 on Betfair, it was a real blow, and really cemented the day’s over-riding emotion of so close and yet so far. A tremendous ride from Wayne Hutchinson, who was niggling away on the final bend, there will be a big prize awaiting Godsmejudge, who may go for something like The Eider Chase, or The Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Friday, 11 January 2013
Saturday Racing at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
Many Clouds has excellent form tied in with Gevrey Chambertin, Coneygree and the like, and is clearly a progressive novice hurdler. Even with a penalty, he will be tough to beat tomorrow, and is a course and distance winner already around Wetherby.
As will Poole Master, and it is interesting that Tom Scudamore travels to Wetherby instead of Kempton and Warwick for Pond House, and this will be one of the reasons why. Always going to be a chaser, he has progressed nicely in his two starts, and runs at a level that should be right up his street.
Another exciting novice chaser is Highland Lodge, who was very impressive last time out when out galloping Our Father at Cheltenham. He looks an absolute staying chaser in the making and possible perhaps a Welsh National horse in time. He will love the ground, and will likely gallop his rivals into submission. The presence of Rocky Creek will solely further enhance his price and reputation.
Another useful novice is The New One, who is a leading fancy for The Neptune Hurdle at The Cheltenham Festival, after building on his useful bumper form to win a nice novice hurdle at the track in October. He has a mark of 143, and over the extended two and a half miles, he will be tough to beat, at an albeit skinny price.
Regular readers of this blog will know my opinion of The Package. Timmy Murphy is back to ride him in a three mile handicap hurdle, and he can take advantage of a 13lb better off mark than his chase rating. The form of The Hennessy has worked out tremendously well, finishing behind The Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth, and Lexus Chase 1-2 in Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He is the best bet of the day.
The final fancy is somewhat speculative, but Alan King’s record in The Classic Chase speaks for itself and in my eyes it is an even stronger positive with Wayne Hutchinson on board. He rides Godsmejudge, who has built like a smart staying novice handicap chaser, brought about slowly. He ran with credit in three mile novice hurdles last year, and has taken to chasing well, winning a nice looking beginner’s chase last time out at Folkestone. Bradley and Pete the Feat will be tough to beat, but I’m hopeful of a big run.
12.30 Wetherby – Many Clouds
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge
2,25 Warwick – The Package (Nap)
3.00 Warwick – The New One
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Friday, 4 January 2013
Saturday Racing at Chepstow, Sandown and Wincanton
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
I don’t really like betting at Wincanton, but Gevrey Chambertin looks banker material, running in the two and a half mile handicap hurdle as opposed to stepping up in class. The half-brother to Grands Crus has excellent form tied in with the likes of Corrin Wood, Coneygree and Fourjacks, and an opening handicap mark of 130 looks extremely lenient. He should take this, en route to much greater things.
Big Fella Thanks was somewhat of an unlucky loser last time in The Becher Chase at Aintree, travelling extremely well, before finding trouble in running, and tiring towards the end of the extended three mile slog. He is dropped down in trip in to two mile five furlongs for the first time in forever, and he runs off an unrevised mark. On his old form he is still very well handicapped, despite being the ripe old age of eleven.
I tipped up and backed Teaforthree ante post in The Welsh National and even now, it can be stated that he still looks something of a good thing. Rebecca Curtis’s Cheltenham Festival winner has had two runs to get him spot on, and has travelled in style during both run; in The Hennessy and in a handicap chase at Cheltenham. He ticks every box for The Welsh National, course form, will love the ground, and has been laid out for the race. He will take all of the beating.
Court Minstrel chased home Dodging Bullets and River Maigue in a Cheltenham juvenile hurdle, and looks a good price for The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney. Nicky Henderson has two runners, and given his record in the race, they are obviously respected. The form of Court Minstrel’s last run looks the best piece of form in the book, despite Pendra being something of a sleeper in the field.
The form of The Hennessy has been franked in recent weeks with First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay finishing first and second in The Lexus Chase in Ireland, and Teaforthree well backed for The Welsh National. Seventh in The Hennessy was Fruity O’ Rooney, who tired in the latter stages and it is a massive plus that he is dropping down to three miles. Although the ground would be a slight worry, he looks the most talented in a tricky and trappy looking handicap.
14.05 Wincanton – Gevrey Chambertin (Nap)
14.25 Sandown - Court Minstrel
14.40 Wincanton – Big Fella Thanks
15.20 Chepstow – Teaforthree
15.40 Sandown – Fruity O’Rooney
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)