The third day is a good day for the broad minded punter, with some very open races already from an ante post perspective. With no Big Bucks in The World Hurdle, and a host of protagonists in The Ryanair, it looks to be a salivating prospect already, six weeks in advance.
The Jewson Novices Chase
Generally a punter friendly race, with Wishfull Thinking getting beat by Noble Prince in 2011, and well backed second favourite Sir Des Champs winning for Willie Mullins last year, He has a few contenders should they run in Arvika Ligeonniere, Boston Bob and Rupert Lamb, but his best chance looks Aupcharlie. He didn't seemingly stay out his last two runs over three miles, and will be better suited to the drop back in trip. Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan is the obvious fancy for this if running to avoid Simonsig, and also has Hadrians Approach and Broadback Bob as insurance. Captain Conan was laboured over the trip primarily due to the desperate ground at Sandown, and although unimpressive, he is better than that. I will look to recoup many squandered ante post vouchers on the strong jumping six year old; he is still the likeliest winner, with Nicky Henderson sending him to avoid Simonsig in The Arkle.
The Pertemps Final
A race that generally goes to stereotypically shrewd connections, with the likes of Jonjo O’ Neill, David Pipe, Malcolm Jefferson and Nigel Twiston-Davies training multiple winners of the race in recent years. Plenty of money for Paul Nicholls’s Sam Winner, Rangitoto and American Trilogy since the entries were announced, but I personally couldn’t have any. It would be folly to bet on a Cheltenham handicap so far in advance, but David Pipe’s entries must be taken note of. He has Close House, Goulanes, Gevrey Chambertin and The Package all entered. Serious support close to the day should be respected. Veterans with course form should be the ones to be considered for the shortlist.
The Ryanair Chase
Since the origin of this race, it has been a warm attraction for those ‘in-between’ horses, not enough stamina for The Gold Cup, not enough speed for The Champion Chase. As such, horses such as Cue Card, Captain Chris and Flemenstar are really not my cup of tea for a race like this. Riverside Theatre won this last year thanks to a masterful ride from Barry Geraghty, and it looks like he will have the option of him or Finians Rainbow. Based on his wins in The Champion Chase last year, and The Melling Chase at Aintree, he is a big player if he were to turn up on the day. The Ante Post play surely has to be Champion Court for Martin Keighley, who was second at The Festival over course and distance last year to Gold Cup fancy Sir Des Champs. He ran a game race without staying in The King George, and his form with Williams Wishes at Ascot already looks strong. He is a course and distance specialist, and is almost certain to run. The 10/1 about him looks good value. First Lieutenant is a spring horse, and should he run, would be a big player, with form with Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth to his name. I’ve had a nibble with him at 12/1.
The World Hurdle
Since Big Bucks ruled out, I got delving into the form book to pick out a bit of value, and thankfully, both my fancies have shortened up after winning 3 miles Graded races since. MONKSLAND looks the most likely winner to me, brought steadily along by Dessie Hughes, and won emphatically last time out at Fairyhouse, beating Zaidpour in fine style, seeing the trip out well. He would have got closer to Simonsig in The Neptune had he not been hampered by Cotton Mill, and has the unexposed profile to make a splash. Reve De Sivola is a tough as old boots, with fantastic Cheltenham form to his name, and goes on any ground. Second to Peddlers Cross in a Neptune Hurdle, and a good winner of The Cleeve Hurdle ahead of Oscar Whisky last time out. I’ve backed Reve De Sivola at 8/1 and Monksland at 16/1 ante post. Oscar Whisky is not a three mile horse, and his class can only get him so far. The rest at the head of the market are unlikely to run, the likes of Peddlers Cross, Right of Passage, Smad Place, Tidal Bay, Grands Crus, Get Me Out of Here, Quevega, Cape Tribulation, Dynaste, Thousand Stars, Zaidpour, Riverside Theatre, Back in Focus, Kentford Grey Lady. Although the market looks wide open, it really isn’t. The main dangers look to be smart recent winners in Ireland, Bog Warrior and Solwhit, but Bog Warrior looks ground dependant, and Solwhit is yet to run over further than two and a half miles.
The Byrne Group Plate
A trappy handicap, where again the shrewd trainers thrive, think the Pipe, Henderson and Williams yards, they usually have an animal laid out for it, last year David Pipe made no secret that Salut Flo was his best handicapped horse of the festival, and so it turned out. Little can be said until the weights are announced, but horses such as Notus De La Tour, Havingotascoobydo, Salut Flo, Consigliere, Divers would be of interest given the current ante post market. JP McManus horses will likely to be punted in the run up; Cantlow will be entered in anything and everything.
The Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Another one for gambles, it’s Cheltenham, what else? Sunnyhillboy and Junior; the last two winners were heavily backed favourites, and like Ballabriggs before him, you’re looking for unexposed staying chasers, with a grander view to the Grand National. Although those the age of ten generally fare poorly, as usual, it’s best to keep a check on the entries, and more importantly the market early. Goulanes would be of interest wherever he goes after staying on like a train to win a novice chase at Wetherby at the weekend, and wherever he goes, will be of great interest.
Best Bet – Monksland
Next Best – Champion Court
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
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