The Friday, the last day, and Gold Cup Day, and a day that has been historically a day of near misses for me, given the last couple of seasons. Boston Bob, Burton Port, Grumeti and Chapoturgeon were bad results last year, hopefully we can convert places into winners in the same manner that Jesus did with the loaves and the fishes.
The Triumph Hurdle
Nicky Henderson has an extremely strong record in the race, and is often the leading trainer to follow, usually excelling with his juvenile hurdling recruits from France. He has Rolling Star at the head of the market, which was impressive on UK debut, beating Irish Saint at Cheltenham. He has said however that he has better options at home, and the likes of Courtesy Call, Megalypos and Alexandre Six could be worth a look prior to their next potential runs. Willie Mullins has strong contenders in Diakali, Blood Cotil and Fatcatinthehat, but options are still open and don’t appeal as ante post propositions. John Quinn won the race last year with Countrywide Flame, and he has two live contenders Hidden Justice and Kashmir Peak, but the best option could be with a trainer that is yet to win the race; with Dessie Hughes. Our Conor looks a very smart recruit, and is 2/2 since hurdling, showing a very smart action and a powerful turn of foot. Connections are very hopeful of this well bred son of Jeremy, and the plan is to run in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown Sunday, weather permitting, then Cheltenham bound. He is still 16/1 in places.
The County Hurdle
A race historically that is a minefield. Three categories can usually separate contenders, those who continue winning, and raised in the handicap accordingly, those that are trickling down, and unexposed juveniles. It is hard to assess ante post, with the likes of Cause of Causes and Cash and Go being the leading performers in the two mile handicap hurdles this season, and are respected. There are usually leading pointers coming from Ireland in the weeks before, and that will be a better guide to the market. They have a cracking record in the race, winning five out of the last six renewals, Willie Mullins winning two of them. Trifolium could be one to keep on side of, despite flopping in The Fighting Fifth Hurdle, his Supreme form looks good. Abbey Lane won The Boylesports Hurdle, so will be fancied ahead of this, but Ted Veale, who finished fourth, should be suited to a stronger pace, that you will get in this.
The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
A race that has served me well, The Albert Bartlett, where there is generally a bit of each way value around. The market surrounds Irish horses that aren’t guaranteed to run, the likes of Ballycasey, Pont Alexandre, Our Vinnie, Rule the World and Champagne Fever. Similarly, Road to Riches, Shutthefrontdoor, Utopie Des Bordes, Gevrey Chambertin and Taquin De Seuil are likely to take up other options. The most obvious bet from an ante post perspective is Coneygree is a half-brother to the wonderful stayer Carruthers, so he should relish this trip, and was an emphatic course and distance winner at Prestbury Park in December. He ran a cracking race in defeat behind The New One and At Fishers Cross, when just done for a turn of foot. He is an all-out stayer and an absolute grinder. I expect he will lead from start to finish and not see another rival. At his current double figure price, he is ludicrous value. I’ve backed him at 12/1, 10/1 and 8/1 throughout the season.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup
For me, The Gold Cup has been a two horse race for the past nine months, and I can’t see it changing anytime soon. I piled into Bobs Worth at 8/1 and Sir Des Champs at 6/1 back last year, and look to be in a very healthy position, five weeks before it all kicks off. I’ll start with their rivals. Long Run makes too many jumping errors for my liking, and looks prone to fresher legs. Can not have Silviniaco Conti, a horse who finished behind Menorah and Cue Card in his only run at the track. He doesn’t strike me as a ‘Gold Cup horse’. First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay finished ahead of Flemenstar in The Lexus Chase, and both were behind Bobs Worth in The Hennessy, I see no reason why the form should be reversed. Unless it is with Sir Des Champs, who stayed really well up the hill, and providing the jumping mistakes are eradicated, can better them, it’s just a matter of whether he can better Bobs Worth.
The Foxhunters Chase
This was a disaster personally last year, as I backed Chapoturgeon, who absolutely cruised through the race, before being out-battled in the finish by The Irish horse Salsify. He was mightily impressive on his seasonal appearance however, and I would be tempted to get involved again, barring the way he ended the race last year. Cloudy Lane is a contender, but his target is likely to be Aintree equivalent. Salsify won the race last year, and has been brought along nicely, with two seconds in hunter chases in Ireland. He will get better as the season progresses, and has to be respected. Nothing in the portfolio at the moment, but if I had to have a bet, Chapoturgeon would be given another chance.
The Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle
Again, still scarred from Toner D’oudaries not seeing out the race last year, done prohibitively short in running, after sauntering up the hill, was nabbed by Attaglance of Malcolm Jefferson. Like most handicaps alluded to in here, David Pipe is the man to watch, he’ll want to win this, as it’s his Dad’s race – go figure. Katkeau was all the rage on British debut, but met trouble in running, not getting any breaks. He or a prototype such as him could be fancied over the trip. It’s over the extended two and a half miles, and Pipe could have recent winners such as Swing Bowler, Top Gamble, Heath Hunter, or Welsh Champion Hurdle third Tanerko Emery, who would be at the top of the shortlist.
The Jonny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Much to the same tone of the previous comments, Nicky Henderson will assemble as much arsenal as he can to fire at this, named after his late father. He had five in the race last year, and completed a 1-2. This year, he’ll have a further hatful, with the likes of Kid Cassidy, Tanks for That, French Opera and Anquetta. Some handicap chasers to have on the radar, who have run well this season, and may come into contention, are Sire De Grugy, Kumbeshwar, Drumshambo, De Boitron, Dan Breen and Renard.
Best Bet – Coneygree
Next Best – Our Conor
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
Thursday 7 February 2013
Monday 4 February 2013
Cheltenham Day Three - Ante Post Thoughts
The third day is a good day for the broad minded punter, with some very open races already from an ante post perspective. With no Big Bucks in The World Hurdle, and a host of protagonists in The Ryanair, it looks to be a salivating prospect already, six weeks in advance.
The Jewson Novices Chase
Generally a punter friendly race, with Wishfull Thinking getting beat by Noble Prince in 2011, and well backed second favourite Sir Des Champs winning for Willie Mullins last year, He has a few contenders should they run in Arvika Ligeonniere, Boston Bob and Rupert Lamb, but his best chance looks Aupcharlie. He didn't seemingly stay out his last two runs over three miles, and will be better suited to the drop back in trip. Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan is the obvious fancy for this if running to avoid Simonsig, and also has Hadrians Approach and Broadback Bob as insurance. Captain Conan was laboured over the trip primarily due to the desperate ground at Sandown, and although unimpressive, he is better than that. I will look to recoup many squandered ante post vouchers on the strong jumping six year old; he is still the likeliest winner, with Nicky Henderson sending him to avoid Simonsig in The Arkle.
The Pertemps Final
A race that generally goes to stereotypically shrewd connections, with the likes of Jonjo O’ Neill, David Pipe, Malcolm Jefferson and Nigel Twiston-Davies training multiple winners of the race in recent years. Plenty of money for Paul Nicholls’s Sam Winner, Rangitoto and American Trilogy since the entries were announced, but I personally couldn’t have any. It would be folly to bet on a Cheltenham handicap so far in advance, but David Pipe’s entries must be taken note of. He has Close House, Goulanes, Gevrey Chambertin and The Package all entered. Serious support close to the day should be respected. Veterans with course form should be the ones to be considered for the shortlist.
The Ryanair Chase
Since the origin of this race, it has been a warm attraction for those ‘in-between’ horses, not enough stamina for The Gold Cup, not enough speed for The Champion Chase. As such, horses such as Cue Card, Captain Chris and Flemenstar are really not my cup of tea for a race like this. Riverside Theatre won this last year thanks to a masterful ride from Barry Geraghty, and it looks like he will have the option of him or Finians Rainbow. Based on his wins in The Champion Chase last year, and The Melling Chase at Aintree, he is a big player if he were to turn up on the day. The Ante Post play surely has to be Champion Court for Martin Keighley, who was second at The Festival over course and distance last year to Gold Cup fancy Sir Des Champs. He ran a game race without staying in The King George, and his form with Williams Wishes at Ascot already looks strong. He is a course and distance specialist, and is almost certain to run. The 10/1 about him looks good value. First Lieutenant is a spring horse, and should he run, would be a big player, with form with Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth to his name. I’ve had a nibble with him at 12/1.
The World Hurdle
Since Big Bucks ruled out, I got delving into the form book to pick out a bit of value, and thankfully, both my fancies have shortened up after winning 3 miles Graded races since. MONKSLAND looks the most likely winner to me, brought steadily along by Dessie Hughes, and won emphatically last time out at Fairyhouse, beating Zaidpour in fine style, seeing the trip out well. He would have got closer to Simonsig in The Neptune had he not been hampered by Cotton Mill, and has the unexposed profile to make a splash. Reve De Sivola is a tough as old boots, with fantastic Cheltenham form to his name, and goes on any ground. Second to Peddlers Cross in a Neptune Hurdle, and a good winner of The Cleeve Hurdle ahead of Oscar Whisky last time out. I’ve backed Reve De Sivola at 8/1 and Monksland at 16/1 ante post. Oscar Whisky is not a three mile horse, and his class can only get him so far. The rest at the head of the market are unlikely to run, the likes of Peddlers Cross, Right of Passage, Smad Place, Tidal Bay, Grands Crus, Get Me Out of Here, Quevega, Cape Tribulation, Dynaste, Thousand Stars, Zaidpour, Riverside Theatre, Back in Focus, Kentford Grey Lady. Although the market looks wide open, it really isn’t. The main dangers look to be smart recent winners in Ireland, Bog Warrior and Solwhit, but Bog Warrior looks ground dependant, and Solwhit is yet to run over further than two and a half miles.
The Byrne Group Plate
A trappy handicap, where again the shrewd trainers thrive, think the Pipe, Henderson and Williams yards, they usually have an animal laid out for it, last year David Pipe made no secret that Salut Flo was his best handicapped horse of the festival, and so it turned out. Little can be said until the weights are announced, but horses such as Notus De La Tour, Havingotascoobydo, Salut Flo, Consigliere, Divers would be of interest given the current ante post market. JP McManus horses will likely to be punted in the run up; Cantlow will be entered in anything and everything.
The Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Another one for gambles, it’s Cheltenham, what else? Sunnyhillboy and Junior; the last two winners were heavily backed favourites, and like Ballabriggs before him, you’re looking for unexposed staying chasers, with a grander view to the Grand National. Although those the age of ten generally fare poorly, as usual, it’s best to keep a check on the entries, and more importantly the market early. Goulanes would be of interest wherever he goes after staying on like a train to win a novice chase at Wetherby at the weekend, and wherever he goes, will be of great interest.
Best Bet – Monksland
Next Best – Champion Court
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
The Jewson Novices Chase
Generally a punter friendly race, with Wishfull Thinking getting beat by Noble Prince in 2011, and well backed second favourite Sir Des Champs winning for Willie Mullins last year, He has a few contenders should they run in Arvika Ligeonniere, Boston Bob and Rupert Lamb, but his best chance looks Aupcharlie. He didn't seemingly stay out his last two runs over three miles, and will be better suited to the drop back in trip. Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan is the obvious fancy for this if running to avoid Simonsig, and also has Hadrians Approach and Broadback Bob as insurance. Captain Conan was laboured over the trip primarily due to the desperate ground at Sandown, and although unimpressive, he is better than that. I will look to recoup many squandered ante post vouchers on the strong jumping six year old; he is still the likeliest winner, with Nicky Henderson sending him to avoid Simonsig in The Arkle.
The Pertemps Final
A race that generally goes to stereotypically shrewd connections, with the likes of Jonjo O’ Neill, David Pipe, Malcolm Jefferson and Nigel Twiston-Davies training multiple winners of the race in recent years. Plenty of money for Paul Nicholls’s Sam Winner, Rangitoto and American Trilogy since the entries were announced, but I personally couldn’t have any. It would be folly to bet on a Cheltenham handicap so far in advance, but David Pipe’s entries must be taken note of. He has Close House, Goulanes, Gevrey Chambertin and The Package all entered. Serious support close to the day should be respected. Veterans with course form should be the ones to be considered for the shortlist.
The Ryanair Chase
Since the origin of this race, it has been a warm attraction for those ‘in-between’ horses, not enough stamina for The Gold Cup, not enough speed for The Champion Chase. As such, horses such as Cue Card, Captain Chris and Flemenstar are really not my cup of tea for a race like this. Riverside Theatre won this last year thanks to a masterful ride from Barry Geraghty, and it looks like he will have the option of him or Finians Rainbow. Based on his wins in The Champion Chase last year, and The Melling Chase at Aintree, he is a big player if he were to turn up on the day. The Ante Post play surely has to be Champion Court for Martin Keighley, who was second at The Festival over course and distance last year to Gold Cup fancy Sir Des Champs. He ran a game race without staying in The King George, and his form with Williams Wishes at Ascot already looks strong. He is a course and distance specialist, and is almost certain to run. The 10/1 about him looks good value. First Lieutenant is a spring horse, and should he run, would be a big player, with form with Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth to his name. I’ve had a nibble with him at 12/1.
The World Hurdle
Since Big Bucks ruled out, I got delving into the form book to pick out a bit of value, and thankfully, both my fancies have shortened up after winning 3 miles Graded races since. MONKSLAND looks the most likely winner to me, brought steadily along by Dessie Hughes, and won emphatically last time out at Fairyhouse, beating Zaidpour in fine style, seeing the trip out well. He would have got closer to Simonsig in The Neptune had he not been hampered by Cotton Mill, and has the unexposed profile to make a splash. Reve De Sivola is a tough as old boots, with fantastic Cheltenham form to his name, and goes on any ground. Second to Peddlers Cross in a Neptune Hurdle, and a good winner of The Cleeve Hurdle ahead of Oscar Whisky last time out. I’ve backed Reve De Sivola at 8/1 and Monksland at 16/1 ante post. Oscar Whisky is not a three mile horse, and his class can only get him so far. The rest at the head of the market are unlikely to run, the likes of Peddlers Cross, Right of Passage, Smad Place, Tidal Bay, Grands Crus, Get Me Out of Here, Quevega, Cape Tribulation, Dynaste, Thousand Stars, Zaidpour, Riverside Theatre, Back in Focus, Kentford Grey Lady. Although the market looks wide open, it really isn’t. The main dangers look to be smart recent winners in Ireland, Bog Warrior and Solwhit, but Bog Warrior looks ground dependant, and Solwhit is yet to run over further than two and a half miles.
The Byrne Group Plate
A trappy handicap, where again the shrewd trainers thrive, think the Pipe, Henderson and Williams yards, they usually have an animal laid out for it, last year David Pipe made no secret that Salut Flo was his best handicapped horse of the festival, and so it turned out. Little can be said until the weights are announced, but horses such as Notus De La Tour, Havingotascoobydo, Salut Flo, Consigliere, Divers would be of interest given the current ante post market. JP McManus horses will likely to be punted in the run up; Cantlow will be entered in anything and everything.
The Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Another one for gambles, it’s Cheltenham, what else? Sunnyhillboy and Junior; the last two winners were heavily backed favourites, and like Ballabriggs before him, you’re looking for unexposed staying chasers, with a grander view to the Grand National. Although those the age of ten generally fare poorly, as usual, it’s best to keep a check on the entries, and more importantly the market early. Goulanes would be of interest wherever he goes after staying on like a train to win a novice chase at Wetherby at the weekend, and wherever he goes, will be of great interest.
Best Bet – Monksland
Next Best – Champion Court
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports
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