Monday, 14 October 2013

Champions Day at Ascot

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Ascot Champions Day will be without the star of its last two meetings and despite the lack of Frankel, the superstar that chased him home last year can take back his Champions Stakes crown.

French raider Cirrus Des Aigles beat a stellar field two years ago in what looks the strongest form in the race. Perhaps even better was getting to within two lengths of the greatest thoroughbred we’ve ever seen? Take you pick, either way Cirrus Des Aigles wins The Champions Stakes.

Champion Stakes Betting from BetVictor


The QE2 has been a race that has cemented horses as legends; previous winners such as Frankel, Excelebration, Rip Van Winkle, George Washington et al the list goes on. Dawn Approach can seal his path to stud in what looks to be the perfect send off for Jim Bolger’s colt; Bolger describes him as ‘still awesome’ – that’s good enough for me.

The Fillies and Mares race looks a cracker and with soft ground forecast it looks to come down to two who thrive under the conditions; The Lark and Dalkala. The latter was an impressive winner of The Prix de L’Opera on Arc Day, showing a game attitude to get up on the line and she is preferred of the two.

Gold Cup heroine Estimate should ensure its hats off for The Queen on Champions Day, The Gold Cup winner’s record around Ascot s truly exceptional and the ground should be no problem for her whatsoever.

The sprint looks a minefield and those punting should nick a good price on the winner!

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1.45 - Estimate
2.20 - Open, Mass Rally, Maarek and Jack Dexter should love the ground
2.55 - Dalkala
3.30 - Dawn Approach
4.05 - Cirrus Des Aigles

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Wednesday, 4 September 2013

Wednesday Racing at Bath, Kempton, Lingfield and Southwell

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Brassick
(2.40) has been impressive in novice chases for Charlie Longsdon and it’s interesting that he has switched stables and moved to Evan Williams, under the new ownership of Mr and Mrs William Rucke, purchasing from Paul Murphy last week. He continues in novice company once more and should eventually build up to be a very smart three mile handicap chaser and stepped up in trip once more should continue to improve and should be able to win a race of this fashion in good style.


Our flat racing this afternoon comes from Bath and Lingfield and Ryan Moore looks to be a very significant jockey booking for Bereka (2.20) in the two year old maiden. Given the record he has when riding for the stable the filly deserves a second look; he has three wins and a second from five rides for James Tate, and in a race where he could have presumably ridden for Charlie Hills and Jeremy Noseda the filly warrants respect. The dam has produced smart 2yo’s including Kenny Powers and Hearts of Fire so she is certainly bred to do a job and any market support should be noted.


Moore also rides Radiator (3.20) for boss Sir Michael Stoute and despite the trainer’s poor record with two year olds first time out, this filly was smashed up when running at Goodwood last month. She ran well despite being green in the early stages, staying on towards the finish and will have learnt a lot from the run. The winner has since gone on to win The Prestige Stakes and the ninth and tenth have won on their next starts. The form looks strong and this race looks well within her taking, and she should come into her own further when upped in trip.


Moore then travels to Kempton to ride Fine Art Fair for his old man Gary in the rive furlong nursery at 6.00. He shed his maiden tag at the third attempt at Lingfield before defying an opening mark of 67 in cosy style after being smashed off the boards, lumped into 5/4 seconds before the off. A 5lb rise shouldn’t stop his improvement and as seen with the stable’s sprinters Dutch Masterpiece and Picture Editor both continued to improve through handicapping, this lad could prove to be of a similar ilk. He looks the best bet of the day.


Roger Charlton’s filly Vallila (2.50) chased home Richard Hannon’s smart Musical Comedy last time out at Windsor and can build on that when pitched into handicap company for the first time from a mark of 58. She has progressed on all three starts and Charlton seldom sends his horses to Lingfield; nine runners in the last twelve months producing three winners. Joey Haynes has been snapped up by Karl Burke and he takes the ride, his claim taking off 5lb.


Over at Bath course winner Devon Diva (3.00) can get her season back on track with conditions to suit for John Gallagher and Michael J Murphy. The mare won over a mile here three starts ago and ran well in her follow up before bombing out at Chepstow on soft ground. With a line put through that run she has the most consistent form in the race and back down to a mark of 48 has to be respected. She was second here over course and distance from a 2lb higher mark back in June and given the way she handles the track has an immediate advantage over her rivals.


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Tuesday Racing at Goodwood, Leicester and Lingfield

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Moyglare Stud Stakes winner Rizeena jumps to the head of the 1000 Guineas market and is now the 8/1 joint-favourite with unlucky in running Tapestry for next year’s classic. Dazzling certainly lived up to her name and indeed pedigree when making an exciting debut to score over a mile at The Curragh. The filly is a full sister to Irish Guineas winner Roderic O’Connor and his sister is 20/1 to follow in his footsteps to classic glory.


Goodwood on a Tuesday afternoon is a nice treat and good prize money is duly rewarded with a strong turn-out of runners. The highlight of the card (and the day’s racing) looks to be the conditions race at 3.30 with six going to post. Richard Hughes rides Intermath for David Evans as Paul Hanagan rides for Sheikh Hamdan on Wahaab, who was far from disgraced when down the field in The Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The one who looks to be improving the most looks to be Mark Johnston’s Lyn Valley, an impressive when staying on to win a Newmarket maiden last month. The colt had shown promise at a similar level and his form looks rock solid; both subsequent runners in behind winning next time out. He should be even better over the seven furlongs trip.


Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning can make it a quick-fire double with Crowdamania in the very next race at 4.05. The colt has run to a similar standard in all five starts, running behind the likes of Green Door, Reroute and Mappa Mundi without getting any rub of the green. He tries six furlongs on good ground for only the second time, his first run saw him well backed to finish fourth at Ascot, beaten two lengths to a now 90 rated horse. If things were to click for this Shamardal colt he could look very well handicapped from a mark of 77.


The stayer’s race looks a cracker and it could be a treble for connections with the ever so tough Broxbourne (4.40) who was the gamest of game winners when winning last time out at York. She nutted stable-mate Party Line showing a tremendous attitude and from a 5lb higher mark should remain competitive. Mawaqeet was second to her at York and should give the filly a race of it from being a 1lb off at the weights, whilst Mutual Regard is respected for the Sir Mark Prescott stable.


Although disappointing at York the form of J Wonder’s Newmarket win continues to impress, Dancealot, Midnite Angel and Excel’s Beauty all placing in pattern company and as such it could be worth taking another chance on William Haggas’ Princess Rose (2.30) over at Leicester. She didn’t handle the undulations of Chester last time out but before that had progressed nicely in stronger company. The handicapper has given her a chance from a 2lb lower mark and back down to six furlongs has to be a player.


Twilight racing a Lingfield where Royal Bajan (5.15) should be able to complete the hat-trick for James Given and defy a 9lb rise for wins at Ayr and then Brighton. The five year old has Freddie Tylicki in the saddle and given the fact he has defied a poor draw on both previous efforts, being drawn last of eight hopefully shouldn’t hinder the gelding.


Ralph Beckett’s filly Prospera (7.20) lost nothing in defeat when fourth last time out at Salisbury and back on the all-weather should be difficult to beat in Lingfield’s lucky last. Since returning in April she has progressed steadily and improved with every run, winning at both Doncaster and Kempton. The form of her win on Town Moor looks the pick of the race, with the second that day winning both of her next two starts.



The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Monday, 19 August 2013

Tuesday Racing at Brighton, Yarmouth and Leicester

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Tuesday sees former champion jockey (and for my money the best jockey in the world) Ryan Moore taking in the views and scenery of Great Yarmouth, with four rides for four different trainers. Moore spent his weekend between Arlington and Deauville in Group One races and whilst there is nothing on the card of that calibre, he just loves riding winners. He is by all accounts stable jockey for Sir Michael Stoute and his main reason for going to Yarmouth is to ride Meddling (2.30) in the six furlongs maiden handicap. The filly drops down to six for the first time and given how tamely she has folded over seven furlongs the switch looks likely to suit. Although she disappointed last time out when only fourth the form of both her Salisbury runs looks strong and immediately strikes as having the potential to be much better than a 66 rated filly.


Moore hangs around to ride the infamous George Baker, trained by his namesake and whilst he is sure to be popular I like the look of Azrael (4.30) with Davey Probert in the saddle. His form around the idiosyncratic course is exceptional and the five year old has won twice over the course and distance this year. With the ground likely to be rattling quick as per the norm here, he should have conditions perfect to suit. Muftarres and Jonnie Skull finished first and second in a similar contest last week and re-oppose once more, with the former under a penalty.


Brighton rivals Yarmouth with being such a quirky course that traditionally has ground quicker than Usain Bolt, conditions which should help Sir Mark Prescott’s American bred filly Alzavola (3.45) in the ten furlong handicap. She succeeded on her handicap debut over the same trip at Bath after being set up in maidens in the tried and tested Sir Mark way. She was well backed when running under a penalty at Bath on her last run before failing to stay the trip when tried at a mile and a half for the first time. A return to a mile and a quarter should suit and the stable continue to churn out winners.


Evening racing comes from Leicester and the opening fillies’ maiden looks a good chance for Shilla (5.00) to get off the mark at the second attempt. First season sire Kodiac is enjoying plenty of success and Henry Candy’s filly showed plenty of promise when chasing home Richard Hannon’s 80 rated juvenile Autumn Sunrise at Windsor. The form in behind her looks strong and her main danger looks to be Mick Channon’s colt Kanz, who has to concede 4lb.


Handicap debutante Saffire Song (5.30) has plenty of scope for improvement after showing glimpses of promise whilst never being competitive in much stronger company. The Firebreak filly has achieved her opening mark of 60 through running in strong Newmarket maidens and despite never threatening she could have some wiggle room with her rating. The Alan Bailey string are in good nick, with two winners and two seconds from his last five runners and talented claimer Robert Tart takes off a useful 5lb.


Luca Cumani thrives with his handicappers and his string are in superb order going into York’s Ebor Festival, an omen that will hopefully assist the chances of Don Padeja (6.30) in the mile and a half handicap. The Dansili colt was an eye-catching staying on third when behind a Sir Mark Prescott at Lingfield in a race where Davey Probert’s made a complete hash of it. The winner has gone on to complete a hat-trick and with Andrea Atzeni now in the saddle the three year old promises to have a strong career ahead.


2.30 Yar – Meddling (Nap)
3.45 Bri – Alzavola
4.30 Yar – Azrael
5.00 Lei – Shilla
5.30 Lei - Saffire Song
6.30 Lei – Don Padeja (Nb)


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Sunday, 11 August 2013

Monday Racing at Windsor, Ayr and Thirsk

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Ryan Moore is always a significant jockey booking for Jeremy Noseda and the fact he has been jocked up on his Ravens Pass filly in Windsor’s first is a good sign for Merletta (5.40). Owned and bred by Cheveley Park Stud, she was well backed on debut to finish a good sixth at Doncaste and the form looks strong. She will have learnt a lot for the run, given a tentative hands and heels ride by William Buick to stay on in the latter stages.


The exact same connections should be able to make it a double with Regal Silk (7.40) in the ten furlong fillies’ handicap. She was a ready winner of a maiden over course and distance by five lengths, yet sees her mark increase by a solitary pound. She looks a filly going place and this looks the best bet of the day for me.


The combination could make it a treble with Hi Filwah (6.10) five furlong maiden and he is colt who ran well in spite of a poor draw last time out at Wolverhampton. He has form tied in with the likes of Cape of Hope and Floating Along sees the 70 rated colt set a clear standard despite William Haggas’ Sky Garden being respected.


Mark Johnston’s handicap debutante Mu’ajiza (3.30) looks to have been given a reasonable opening mark of 74 and should be able to capitalise running against her older rivals. The Pivotal filly progressed on all three starts in maidens and the run at Ascot in particularly impressive when chasing home a Godolphin filly with lofty entries.


Stablemate Desert Revolution (5.00) was out-paced to finish sixth in a competitive Goodwood handicap over a mile but up in trip on better ground should see him to much better effect. Although bred to be speedy he has shown plenty to suggest that he wants to be running over further when staying on to finish second over nine furlongs on debut and similarly when winning his maiden over a mile.


Little Jimmy Odsox
(4.00) has ran with plenty of credit all summer and finally got his head in front for the first time since last September when making all over six furlong at Redcar. He has been in good heart and the form of his second at Wolverhampton two starts continues to strengthen with winner The Great Gabrial winning at Lingfield on Friday. Providing Duran Fentiman can get across from stall ten the five year old should be able to defy a 4lb rise.


Silvestre De Sousa has ridden Wolverhampton better than most this year and although he has admittedly been given smart types for his bosses at Godolphin but there are very few better at judging the fractions. He’s notched 13 winners from 41 rides in 2013, which have come at a 32% SR. That should aid the chances of Keith Dalgleish’s Black Treacle (2.15) in the five furlong claimer. Drawn in stall six I expect De Sousa to be handy and he should be able to attempt to make all on the gelding who has progressed in all three starts.


You won’t find Mikael Barzalona going to Thirsk too often so that in itself should indicate the chances of Wickhambrook (6.30) in the five furlong maiden. The colt was well backed when second to stable-mate Chord Chart at Wolverhampton over six furlongs and was headed late on so the drop back in trip shouldn’t be a problem and he looks the obvious one to beat.


Brian Ellison has a terrific record getting a horse ready for a coup after a lengthy absence and Ty Gwr (5.20) will be hard to beat in the mile and a half handicap. The four year old hasn’t been seen since being claimed from David Simcock 270 days ago and is very well handicapped from a mark of 70.


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Saturday, 10 August 2013

Saturday Racing at Ayr, Haydock, Ascot and Redcar

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Saturday is Shergar Cup Day at Ascot and whilst it is ultimately a team competition there will still be some value around, winners to be had and profit to be made. There’s also the return of Telescope at Haydock and solid cards at Redcar and Newmarket.


All eyes will be on the returning Telescope at Haydock for the Rose of Lancaster Stakes and given the colt was once favourite for The Derby, he will likely to be very warm in the market. He should be able to get the job done here en route to higher honours and it will be up to Noble Mission and David Livingston to battle for minor honours.


The Mark Johnston stable continue to churn out winners and a stereotypical tough and versatile improver is Sennockian Star (2.20) who is seeking his sixth win of the season. His incredible run has seen him rise to a mark of 97 but is clearly thriving and his win at Ascot last time out was his best run to date. The second is a good yard-stick and the third won a competitive Goodwood handicap; with his weight for age allowance he looks difficult to beat.


Over at Ascot Judge ‘n Jury continues to trickle down the handicap and it is surely just a matter of time before the old boy gets his head in front. He was well backed last time out at Ascot when finishing fifth of eighteen in competitive handicap. He has been dropped another 1lb to his lowest mark in over a year and has this dual course and distance winner can build on his already terrific record around the track.


The mile and a half handicap for older horses looks the strongest race on the card and Mark Johnston runs two of his eleven strong string. David Simcock’s Haylaman and Andrew Balding’s Communicator heads the weights however both are well exposed and instead Ed Walker’s Willie Wag Tail looks the pick. The four year old was well backed at Goodwood and York last year in mile and a half handicaps, with the form of his York run working out particularly well. He looked in dire fitness on both starts and that has seen his mark down another 3lb.


Jo’Burg (3.10) runs in the mile handicap at Redcar and is still running with tremendous enthusiasm even at the grand old age of nine. He showed at York that a mile is clearly his trip when chasing home two very well handicapped horses in stable-mate Frog Hollow Sir Michael Stoute’s Altharoos with the pair drawing well clear. The handicapper has dropped him another 1lb to a mark of 84 and given his record around the track (50% Strike Rate over C&D on good ground) he should be able to capitalise.


The final race on Redcar’s card sees a tricky mile and three quarter handicap and Ted Easterby’s locally trained Attansky (5.30) could be worth taking a chance on. He’s shown glimpses of promise in staying handicaps but is yet to have a crack at this trip and the way he travelled over two miles at Thirsk last time out indicated the trip could suit. The three year old has had only eleven career starts and is still relatively unexposed compared to his rivals.


We put up Gowanharry (8.05) when the filly ran two weeks ago at Ayr and she was unlucky to get collared late on and lose by a short head. She runs again over the minimum trip and from a 3lb higher mark and remains competitive. The daughter of Choisir will go on any ground and again has the services of the hottest apprentice in racing; Connor Beasley.



The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Wednesday, 7 August 2013

Wednesday Racing at Newcastle, Pontefract, Yarmouth and Kempton

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The going it Newcastle looks to be turning softer by the day and that should play into the strengths of those capable of handling of testing ground, look no further than Harvey’s Hope. Keith Reveley’s dual purpose seven year old goes in the mile and six and a half furlong handicap at 2.40 and is a dual winner on good to soft including a competitive handicap hurdle at Doncaster in January. He was well punted before finishing second last seen at Redcar in April and should be able to defy a 3lb higher mark.


A horse who looks bred to appreciate a bit of give in the ground is Michael Dods’ son of Choisir Cracking Choice. He has been toiling this year in competitive sprints and the handicapper has finally relented revising his mark to a career low of 58. Despite never getting his head in front in fourteen starts he has five seconds and three thirds to his name and this consistent and likeable gelding will be further assisted by the 5lb claim of talented apprentice Connor Beasley.


There’s also racing at Pontefract and a sprint handicapper in the north making his debut at the track is Come on Dave for (4.00) the Dandy Nicholls yard. He normally plies his trade at the likes of Catterick, Redcar and Musselburgh but irrespective of the track he is undoubtedly a much better horse with cut in the ground. His last two wins have come in soft conditions at Redcar and Catterick and running on unsuitable ground this season has seen his mark fall 5lb, he looks well handicapped should he indeed put his best foot forward.


Yarmouth looks to be missing the bulk of the rain for the time being and Bright Glow should appreciate the quick underfoot conditions after winning last week on Lingfield’s turf track, with the going officially firm. The filly is raised 4lb for that but looks to have plenty in hand given her progression since sent handicapping at Kempton on her return. The David Lanigan and Ted Durcan partnership continues to thrive with unexposed three year old handicappers, with thirteen 3-y-o winners at a 20% strike rate so far this season.


A trainer who thrives with similar types is Sir Mark Prescott especially with unexposed three year olds in handicap and in 2013 has had 17 winners from 45 runners at a 38% strike rate. A horse that has let down the team down twice thus far this season is Khotan who should be able to come good at the third attempt after being given a break. He runs in the mile and three quarter handicap at 8.20 and there is frankly no hotter stable with eleven winners from their last twenty one runners.


The third and final selection at Yarmouth is also an unexposed sort from shrewd connections that saw dramatic improvement now handicapping and that is Welsh Moonlight. The filly ran a good second over course and distance behind Green Monkey, and she franked the form by winning at Doncaster on Saturday. George Baker replaces Saleem Golam in the saddle and everything looks in her favour to get off the mark at the fifth attempt.


Kempton Park should remain unaffected by any torrential forecasts and a horse who thrives on the all-weather is Shavanksy who runs in the mile handicap at 6.00. From four starts at the track he has a win and two seconds and is down to a mark of 83, his lowest since May 2012. He carries with him the burden of top weight but the trainer’s son Pat Millman takes off 5lb for this dual course and distance winner and he looks primed to get on the score sheet for the first time this year.


The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports