The Deutsche Bank Championship

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The Deutsche Bank at TPC Boston is the second of four Fedex Cup playoffs, and just like The Barclays; the big boys are out in force. The crème de la crème are out in rural Massachusetts, with Woods, McIlroy, Mickleson, Donald and Westwood being the big five out to take the overall $10 million FedEx cup, and a win would cement any of them towards the top of the standings. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy share joint favouritism, but neither have any sort of value at around the 10/1 mark, although out of the two, Woods would be the preferred option, the course having a history of favouring the big hitters. That would bring in to play the hardest ball strikers with Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson. Both are reasonably priced at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively, and given the course is a Par 72; four Par 5’s, and a drivable Par 4 , they are going to be a constant threat, with plenty of scoring chances.

When compiling an original shortlist, I used statistics involving previous course form, tournament form, records this season including green in regulation, strokes gained per round and putting. That gave me a shortlist of twenty five runners. Some of those who crept on the list are the following.

Starting with a man who ticked every box; Luke Donald. The man is a model of consistency, and it would be no surprise to see him lift the trophy. He finished tied third here last year, and quietly crept into tied tenth place last week. He is solid as you like on both the before mentioned stats, and is ‘Mr Reliable’. People who are in similar moulds to him with regards to style, consistency and overall game are Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson, who are all reasonably priced at 45/1, 50/1 and 60/1 respectively. All have solid short games, and are strong tee to green. Whether they have the ability to win a tournament of this depth is questionable, but they are all proven thoroughbreds on The PGA Tour and warrant respect, possibly overpriced due toe the strength at the head of the market.

Phil Mickleson is always a threat, given he can seemingly turn it on like a tap; much is his maverick make up. He and Steve Stricker are the two dark horses, who are yet to hit form this season, and if showed glimpses, could be fancied for next week at The BMW Championship, but neither is in the greatest nick thus far. The flip side of that, and the form guys are the moment, are Nick Watney who won last week, Brandt Snedeker, who was second, and consistent all week, and to a lesser extent Keegan Bradley, twice a winner on tour this season and Bo Van Pelt, who was seventh last week, and had a stronger final three rounds than anyone else last week.

At the prohibitively bigger odds, the two stand outs would be Ryan Palmer and Robert Garrigus, both of whom can be backed at 100/1. Palmer ticks a lot of the criteria mentioned at the start. Palmer’s form was extremely consistent coming into the summer, and his form reads 4-MC-9-5-3-15-MC-19-MC-24. If he starts well, he is usually there or thereabouts, and will likely outperform his odds due to his unflashy nature.

A strong field and unfortunately no bookmakers have decided to dangle the carrot of six places in our way, but there is plenty of each way value around for the shrewdies amongst us.

Luke Donald is the obvious to start with, and his record this year is exemplary, it really does stagger, how he can play at such a high level so often and so consistently. He has played 14 events on the PGA Tour this season, missing only one cut, and has 7 top 10 finishes. He is in the top 10 one in every two tournaments played, that stat alone is incredible. He showed glimpses of his best last week, and is sure to go close. Hopefully he creeps under the radar amongst the big hitters, and we get an even bigger price for him.

Speaking of big hitters, this course should make Bubba Watson purr like someone being tickled in all the right places, and much like Donald, crept into contention late on to finish T10 last week. He could be hitting form at the right time, and is yet to finish worse than T23 in his last five tournaments, and on a course like this, which will suit him no end, he has to be respected.

Brandt Snedeker has been in red hot form lately, a solid top 25 followed by finishing a solid second last week, despite a slow start, He is in rattling form, and his putting could compensate for not having the distance on the tee. The top putter on tour, who has been solid all year, and ranked second in FedEx Cup points. He has only missed one cut all year, in The USPGA, and that aside, he is another one of the field’s consistent yard-sticks.

Zach Johnson caught my eye when compiling the stats and shortlist, as he hit more of the criteria than most, yet is priced way down the list at 60/1. He is not a 60/1 shot. Six times in the top ten so far this season and two wins to his name, going low to win both The Crowne Plaza and The John Deere Classic. Given his season thus far, his scoring average and driving accuracy are both in the Top 25 on tour, and currently the sixth best player ranked on tour, statistically speaking. His second round scuppered his chances last week, but still grafted out a T38 finish.

Luke Donald 1.5pt Ew @ 16/1 (Across)
Bubba Watson 1.5pt Ew @ 25/1 (Across)
Brandt Snedeker 1pt Ew @ 25/1 (Across)
Zach Johnson 0.5pt Ew @ 60/1 (Across)


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Ante Post Focus; September and October

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After the success of Ortensia, the ante portfolio has a bit of a cushion, and there is only one thing to do, obviously reinvest the profits, albeit with the aim of doing so wisely. After last Friday’s success, there is no doubt in my mind, that the Aussie mare ORTENSIA is absolutely different gravy to the current crop of sprinters assembled in a division dominated by those from down under. William Buick commented in his At The Races blog that she takes a while to get going, and compared her to a ‘Bougatti’ the way the she goes through the gears. The fact she gradually gets going and gets better and better, the step up to six furlongs should rightfully suit. She would have won by further if not for a number of factors that only proceeded to hinder her. The ground had turned out softer than ideal and she should prove to be even better on a sounder, quicker surface. What wasn’t picked up either is that when David Allan took the hood off his mount Confessional, it was thrown at and subsequently spooked Ortensia. As such, it took her even longer to get going. The fact she came through this when so many things going against her, the pace, the spooking, the ground, yet she still came through shows the heart of her. She got a blinding ride from William Buick, who is one of the most tactically astute jocks going at the minute, and booked to ride her around Haydock, she should complete an impressive treble at Goodwood, York and Haydock, and cement wins in three counties in England and three continents for the globetrotting mare. If it goes really soft, Mayson and to a lesser extend Society Rock have to be considered, but it would have to be something of a bog for me to turn away from this absolute superstar.

The week after that, we are hopefully sitting on a nice profit and can watch The Ladbrokes St Leger safe in the knowledge that profit is already wrapped up thanks to the superstar mare. We go across The Pennines to Doncaster for the last classic of the year, and although Camelot is the deserved ante post favourite after his wins in The 2000 Guineas and English and Irish Derby’s respectively, we have to take him on. He is looking to be the first horse since Nijinsky in 1970 to win that elusive triple crown for Coolmore and Ballydoyle, and become one of only fourteen other horses to achieve the feat. He is currently best priced 4/9, but he looks very fragile running over this type of trip, and the form of his wins have worked out shockingly thus far. Camelot’s defeated rivals have since run 77 times since, with only 8 wins and a further twelve places. Talwar, Akeed Mofeed (Listed), Power (G1), Thought Worthy (G2), Trumpet Major (G3) are the only horses victorious since losing to the colt. To say the form has been let down, would be an understatement. There are three highly progressive three year old colts who I would seek to take him on with.

The first one is MICHELANGELO, who came to his debut with a very high reputation for the John Gosden stable. He ran a good third on debut, and the fact he was running in listed company in his first run spoke volumes. He followed that with a win over good benchmark Expense Claim, and then was even more impressive when winning the Tattersall’s Millions 3yo trophy at Newmarket, beating subsequent black type winner Cameron Highland in impressive fashion. Stepped up to a mile and a half in The Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, he was far from disgraced finishing third, never really travelling, but staying on towards the finish, eventually beaten by three lengths. He is still learning and developing, and on a flatter, more galloping track such as Doncaster, may improve him further. At his current price of 16/1, he is likely to go off much shorter, and considering this has been his target since the start of the season, there is no better trainer at preparing a horse for the St Leger than John Gosden. He does have Thought Worthy, Shantarm and Great Heavens at his disposable, but Michelangelo looks the one most open to improvement, and is almost certain to run, barring injury.

The other two fancies are more speculative, but both have looked very impressive in decent company. THOMAS CHIPPENDALE looked tremendous when winning at Royal Ascot over a mile and a half, beating subsequent winners Thought Worthy and Noble Mission, who went on to win at Goodwood and York respectively. He won coming away that day, and therefore disappointed when running at York, however excuses could be made. He wasn’t helped by the slow pace and never really settled under Paul Hanagan, who was very patient and gave the colt an easy race. The pace of a St Leger is usually extreme, watching back last year’s renewal; they set some incredible fractions, and made it a real test. He should benefit from that sort of gallop, and providing he settles better, he could run outrun his current odds, and fulfil the promise he demonstrated during his win at Royal Ascot.

Another protagonist is GUARANTEE who I tipped up and backed on Saturday at York, and whilst I expected him to win, I didn’t expect a performance quite as scintillating as he put in. Under a very confident ride from Phillip Makin, he cruised up around the outside, and kept on strongly, to win well, and with some very smart horses in behind. He has work to do against classier rivals with arguably stronger form, but is very unexposed for respected connections. William Haggas has a 67% strike rate running horses in classics, and if he says the colt is good enough, that is a big thumbs up, and he is only going to shorten further closer to the day.

Moving onto The Arc, there was news this weekend that the Japanese Triple Crown winner flies over next week in a bid to have a tilt at Longchamp glory. ORFEVRE comes with a lofty reputation, and with good reason, his record is quite outstanding. The four year old has won seven of his last nine starts, including bowing out for Europe with a Group 1 over a mile and three furlongs back in June. Japanese runners have a solid record in The Arc; seconds in recent years from El Condor Pasa and Buena Vista, and third from Deep Impact; they are itching closer to having a winner, and this boy could hold the key. He is due to have a prep in the Prix Vermaille, with Christophe Soumillion already booked. Confidence is high, and he looks to have the class, pedigree and form in the book to prove a lively contender for Japan.

Although trends wise the race favours three and four year old cotls, the manner of the five year old filly SNOW FAIRY’s comeback run to win the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville two weeks ago showed how much ability this mare has retained. She has been laid out for an autumn campaign by trainer Ed Dunlop, and although her best runs have come over a mile and a quarter, with wins in Sha Tin and Kyoto in Hong Kong last season, she is a dual Oaks winner, and should stay. The mare gets on exceptionally well with Ryan Moore, if he were on board, his big race pedigree is second to none, not to mention she has never lost with the former champion jockey aboard her. Her form in general has been exceptional, and since winning The Oaks in June 2010, it reads 1124114223311 – all in Group 1 company. Her only defeats have come behind Midday, So You Think, Cirrus Des Aigles, and Danedream, all multiple group one winning animals. She has never been defeated further than five lengths and finished third in the race last year under Frankie Dettori. Being a year old tougher, and more importantly, fresher, with an autumn campaign, she will likely run in The Irish Champion Stakes before heading to Longchamp, and she should be spot on and cherry ripe for the day.


Haydock Sprint Cup

Ortensia 5pt Win @ 3/1 (Across)

St Leger

Michelangelo 2pts Win @ 16/1 Sportingbet, Ladbrokes, and Coral
Guarantee 0.5pt Win @ 25/1 Boylesports, Stan James, Bodog
Thomas Chippendale 0.5pt Win @ 33/1 Boylesports, BetVictor, Stan James

Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe

Orfevre 1pt Win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes
Snow Fairy 0.5pt Win @ 25/1 Sportingbet


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

York's Ebor Meeting: Saturday - Day Four

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Regardless and irrespective of what happens on the final day of York’s Ebor meeting, it will go down as wholeheartedly an outstanding success. Some battling handicappers, exciting two year olds, and most memorably and perhaps historically, the manner of Frankel’s demolition job will live with me and no doubt others for a good while past the hysteria and hoopla.

They really do go out with a bang on Saturday, with another stellar card, and a nice shapely mix to it and the 2.00 is The City of York Listed Stakes, which has an open field for the twelve runners. Dimension and Eton Forever have been trading blows and running well off high in weights in good handicaps, and they are obviously respected. I have gone on all week however about how valuable the course specialists as we’ve seen already with how well that man Fallon rides around here. SMARTY SOCKS is a three time course winner, and has an unbelievable record of 10 wins from 31 runs at seven furlongs. Running at York over seven furlongs on four occasions has brought three successes and a third place finish in a competitive nineteen runner handicap. He goes for an in form stable at one of their favourite venues, and looks massively overpriced at around 16/1.

I have done an in depth thorough look at the Melrose Handicap, which will be found elsewhere on the site, but here is the synopsis.

http://jjmsports.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-betfred-melrose-handicap-york-230.html

The two I expect to be fighting out the finish are the two unexposed colts of BIOGRAPHER and GUARANTEE, with the latter just edging it. Biographer has been hinting that a mile and three quarters could be his optimum trip, but the manner of Guarantee’s maiden and handicap wins are still etched in my memory. I backed him for his maiden win, and he was green and struggled until the last furlong and a half when really motoring late on. He made a mockery of his opening mark, dotting up by four lengths, and although incurring an 8lb rise, he is going the right way, and will have outstanding claims if fulfilling potential.

The Lonsdale Cup looks like a decent renewal, and Saddlers Rock is respected due to the manner in which he won the Goodwood equivalent under a good ride from JP Murtagh. However at the prices I am inclined to oppose him and instead fancy CAVALRYMAN, whom I backed when winning at Sandown Park, in very impressive fashion. Frankie Dettori won this race last year on Opinion Poll, and the manner of his course win over a mile and three quarters back in June was shows the old boy is in good nick. He comes here back in form, and in good heart, and with him being around the 5/1 mark, he looks an each way to nothing.

I have backed three runners ante post in The Ebor, and all have got in, I still like all three, and would rather back a few in a race like this, on the day it will be best odds guaranteed, and favourites have a shocking record. Motivado is well in, but you need a lot of luck to win a race like this.

The Ebor is seen as the prize race, and whereas I for instance have had better luck in The Nunthorpe and The Yorkshire Oaks in previous years, this is the one for the casual punter on a Saturday afternoon, with an expected crowd of 60,000 – Royal Ascot combined with northern charm. The first horse that I like, given his tremendous form around The Knavesmire is CRACKENTORP for local connections, trained by Tim Easterby. He has run four times so far this season, form figures of 3-1-2-9. Game and gutsy, second in The Northumberland Plate on the back of a good win over a mile and half in an apprentice handicap at York. He won well, and went on to give a game account in The Plate, in atrocious conditions. He fluffed next time out, but I think the race came too soon, and freshened up with a break, with his stable, and his record around York (2390011319), he can bounce back.

HURRICANE HIGGINS is another who makes the shortlist based on his win at Goodwood last week, winning well over two and a half miles. He saw the trip out well, but going back through his form, he was beaten only six lengths by subsequent St Leger winner Masked Marvel, and six lengths by Namibian and Fiorente in last years Gordon Stakes. His form seems to rely on good ground, and with conditions expected to suit, he will run with a 4lb penalty, and will effectively be 5lb well in. Based on the form his run over The Ebor trip at Newmarket in May, he could be very well handicapped, with that race in particular working out very well.

TOMINATOR has been feeling his way back into the season, and through being basically tailed off in The Chester Cup, and then beaten ten lengths in a Haydock handicap, he has returned to the mark of 97, which should give him a chance. A ready winner of The Northumberland Plate last year, the trainer Reg Hollinshead has said all this horse wants is a trip of a mile and three quarters at a strong pace on good ground. He should get all three in The Ebor, and with money already being thrown around for the animal, and fresh off a break, he has to go on the shortlist, even if only precautionary and as a saver.

COSMIC CHATTER put his Royal Ascot run behind him when winning a conditions stakes at Musselburgh nicely. I tipped him up and backed him at Royal Ascot, and such was the nature of the race, he was never able to get into it. He beat Liber last time out, who ran on well to finish fourth in The Yearling Stakes at York on Thursday, and he looks to be the one to beat in The Roses Stakes, which looks to be a good listed race for two year olds.

If we still haven’t had a winner, and judging by the seconditis that has plagued me all week that may be the case, we will keep chipping away and take two in the 4.50, both of whom won comfortably when making their first foray into handicaps. MEDICOE was impressive enough in maidens, without being really tested, and was well backed on his debut, going off the 4/6 favourite, winning cosily enough without being severely tested. Only 1lb up for that win, he still has plenty in hand, and looks well treated. As does SALUTATION for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning, who has a similar profile, who won a Newcastle handicap by two lengths over the same trip. Up 6lb may not hold him back, and he looks the pick of the yards three runners.

The swansong sees a ‘Champion Apprentice’ race, which seemingly now happens at the end of these big festivals, giving the kids a chance to shine. A muddling race where SIR MAXIMILIAN stands out head and shoulders above the rest. The gelding broke his maiden tag at the fourth attempt and on his first run in handicaps ran well over six furlongs, tiring late on, and losing second in the last fifty yards. Dropping back down to five should suit, and he goes for a yard in really good nick, as seen with Snow Fairy’s win last Sunday in France.

2.00 York – Smarty Socks
2.30 York – Guarantee & Biographer
3.05 York – Cavalryman
3.40 York – Crackentorp, Tominator & Hurricane Higgins
4.15 York – Cosmic Chatter
4.50 York – Medicoe & Salutation


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

The Betfred Melrose Handicap; York 2.30

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The 2.30 at York on Ebor day is an absolute crackerjack of a race, and the very fact there are only three geldings, as opposed to thirteen colts shows that there is a lot of untapped talent, with the calibre of unexposed possible group horses being potentially extremely good.

Gospel Choir heads the weights running off 98, and is up 8lb for a defeat of Sir Graham Wade last time out at Haydock, who is dealt a similarly 4lb hike, and 17lb overall for his last three runs. Gospel Choir received what I like to call ‘the Ryan Moore treatment’ last time out to win, and the rise seems steep. Similarly with Sir Graham Wade, the handicapper seems to have now caught up with Mark Johnston’s charge.

Guarantee has only three runs to his name, stepping up from a second on debut to win a mile and a half maiden and a handicap in similarly facile manner and the step up to a mile and six furlongs should suit the Authorized colt. The step up should similarly help Biographer for David Lanigan and Ted Durcan, who will be looking to make amends for Main Sequence’s narrow defeat in The Great Voltigeur. He stayed on well over a mile and five furlongs to come home strongly and finish second at Lingfield, and was game late on to win over a mile and half at Ffos Las, commanding late on to win well. Up 7lb, he could still be a threat.

Gabrial the Great, Rule Book and Beyond Conceit are all colts with inconsistent form this year, although have shown glimpses. Gabrial The Great loves the soft ground, Rule Book looks to be have weighted to high heavens, similarly Beyond Conceit, who was last seen chasing home Suraj before he flopped at York.

Monshak is an unexposed sort for Sir Michael Stoute, and the Monsun filly won well over the trip at Chester last time out, but the fact she has raced exclusively on heavy ground shows that she is a precocious filly. As is Ace of Valhalla for Sir Henry Cecil, who is doubtful to even run, but would not like the good going.

Cardinal Walter is a Cape Cross colt for Mrs Fitri Hay and the in form David Simcock stable, and is up 2lb for giving Sir Graham Wade 4lb at Goodwood, and is now weighted to reverse the placings. That could still give him work to do, although he did stay on to take third, and the step up in trip should suit. As it should with Future Security for Godolphin and SDS in the plate, who stayed on well to win over the extended 10 furlongs last time out at Bath. That was his first run of the season, and the Dalakhani colt is entitled to come on for the run, he is a potential sleeper. Gabrial’s Star is like many in terms of trying the mile and three quarters for the first time, stepping down from previously being upped to two miles last time out, but a 9lb rise for a second place finish, seems harsher than harsh.

Mysterious Man shed the maiden tag at the fifth attempt and an opening mark of 83 seems plenty stiff against horses with are less exposed and have stronger possibilities. Courtesy Call has been on the go since March, and although coming into a rich vein of form lately in lesser company, a long season and up 24lb since his run of 11211 back in May, looks to have seen the weights catch up with him, in the same manner that the Christmas and New Year period does with my waistline.

Cockney Sparrow was last seen finishing sixth in the soft ground at Chester in The Cheshire Oaks, and that form has worked out beyond dire, and a mark of 81 looks daylight robbery. As are the marks for the three at the bottom of the weights in Daneking, Choisan and Flashman, who have form patchier than a tramps satchel, and are up against it against some potential and eventual group winners towards the top of the weights.

So there we have it, a field of eighteen, seventeen if Ace of Valhalla turns up, an excellent race, and some potential Ebor horses in there for next year. Gospel Choir is the favourite on merit, completing the hatrick last time out, but yet another hike could have finally got to him, and he was fortunate to get Ryan Moore on him when he is in ‘will not die’ frame of mind. Sir Graham Wade chased him home, and has been raised, and Cardinal Water chased him home prior at Goodwood, although he is the most lightly treated at the weights. Gospel Choir’s stablemate Monshak would need the rain to come, and for it to come as should Gabrial the Great, Rule Book and Ace of Valhalla. Andrew Balding’s Mysterious Man and Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Cockney Sparrow are still lumbered with stiff opening marks and Daneking, Choisan and Flashman towards the bottom of the pile are up against much classier and stoutly bred rivals. Future Security has a lot more potential than he has yet to show, and he could be a massive dark horses, but the fact L Dettori isn’t in the plate is a head scratcher.

The two I expect to be fighting out the finish are the two unexposed colts of BIOGRAPHER and GUARANTEE, with the latter just edging it. Biographer has been hinting that a mile and three quarters could be his optimum trip, but the manner of Guarantee’s maiden and handicap wins are still etched in my memory. I backed him for his maiden win, and he was green and struggled until the last furlong and a half when really motoring late on. He made a mockery of his opening mark, dotting up by four lengths, and although incurring an 8lb rise, he is going the right way, and will have outstanding claims if fulfilling potential.

1. Guarantee
2. Biographer
3. Cardinal Walter
4. Gospel Choir


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

York’s Ebor Meeting – Day Three

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York Day Three, still on the mend, and hopefully Newfangled is too, a filly full of promise, which was a horrible sight yesterday, and hopefully something that isn’t replicated throughout the rest of the meeting.

The opening handicap is a twenty runner affair over a mile and a half. Silver Lime will no doubt head the market, and is unexposed with only four runs to his names, two wins and a handy mark. That being said, I’m not the biggest fan of Roger Charlton horses, and another unexposed colt is MARTIN CHUZZLEWIT for Sir Michael Stoute and Neil Callan on board. The three year old won a good maiden over a mile at Sandown last year that is shaping up to look tasty, and his two handicap performances so far can be excused on soft ground. Third last time out at Chester on very soft, on better ground and on a more straightforward course like York, he should have more to offer and on a mark of 88, can exploit it here.

HEAVY METAL is the stereotypical Mark Johnston two year old colt. Gutsy as you like, versatile and more importantly, extremely tough. He runs in The Gimcrack after a good win at Glorious Goodwood when making all under Joe Fanning under a canny ride in The Richmond Stakes. He faces his toughest task here, and gives the field 3lb, but the stable are in good heart, and at the prices, he is extremely strong value at around the 6/1 mark.

The Strensall Stakes is a tough Group 3, and has no obvious clear cut favourite, but similarly no obvious rags, a solid all round field. Tales of Grimm has been tipped and backed by me on her last two runs, and I have to finally desert him, being the lowest rated at 99, he has too much ground to make up, and looks trip-less. Dubai Prince is top rated, but is still not at the form he showed as a two year old. The likes of Questioning, Fury, Side Glance and Barefoot Lady are all very exposed, and contrary to that, TAZAHUM was mightily impressive for Paul Hanagan and Sir Michael Stoute when running last time out at Newmarket. Four wins and two seconds from eleven career starts, he has flirted with group class before, form figures of 5246. This may prove to be his optimum trip however, after showing to stay on well last time out over a mile, and untried at the unique trip of nine furlongs may just prove to unlock the key to this quirky four year old.

I have been waiting for ORTENSIA to run for a while, and have got a pretty looking ticket at 6/1 winking at me every time I check it. She is a very likable mare, with group wins on three continents, the key to her is good ground, and although a brief shower on Thursday, as long as it continues to be relatively dry and good ground, I think she will absolutely bolt up. She showed her class last time out at Goodwood, beating a really strong field by two lengths, and winning hard held. Her form behind Black Caviar and other in Australia stacks up, and although Bated Breath and Pearl Secret are respected, this should be one for our friends down under.

BRIGHT STRIKE is a George Strawbridge home-bred, and looks on paper the type the John Gosden yard has excelled with this season so far. Third of fourteen in a good Newmarket maiden, he ran on towards the finish without given an overtly hard time by William Buick, and should come on from his first foray into racing. Three winners have come out of the field’s next nine runners, and with a cracking pedigree, being related to several winners, and notable group one entries, he ticks every box you like.

THE TAJ carries top weight in the last race of the day, a seven furlong nursery, and was given a poor ride, finishing second last time out and given too much to do that day, and it is a massive positive that Paul Hanagan steps back on board this filly. The form of that Haydock nursery has worked out rather well, with Mandy Layla winning next time out and Barracouda Boy running a strong race at York on Thursday before being bumped late on. She has form at group level, and sets a decent benchmark for these to meet.

2.00 York – Martin Chuzzlewit
2.30 York – Heavy Metal
3.05 York – Tazahum
3.40 York – Ortensia (Nap)
4.15 York – Bright Strike
4.50 York – The Taj


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes - Friday at York

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The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is the highlight of Friday’s card, and has a maximum field of twenty runners battling for the £140,000 first prize, in what is truly an international field. Four runners from Ireland and one from down under have come to compete, and whilst an international feel, Yorkshire are incredibly well represented, accounting for more than half of the home runners. Unfortunately, they have a poor record, with the exception of Bordelescott, there has only been two winners for ‘Gods Country’ in the last fifteen years, both of whom were trained by Dandy Nicholls, who doesn’t have a runner.

Although Sole Power was a 100/1 winner two years ago, he was still an unbeaten colt, and it was more of a shock that he could step up from an unknown quantity, as opposed to running so badly and suddenly turning it on. Kingsgate Native returned from firing blanks in the covering shed to finish fourth last year, but looks nowhere near the force of old from winning this race in 2007, and has not won since May 2010. Although Bogart won at the meeting last year, his form has dipped this year, and was disappointing when finishing last in The Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. Humidor, has only placed in one start from six so far this season, and despite running at group level on his last two runs, is still way off the class required for even placing at this grade.

The Irish sprint division as a whole seems to be lacking, and nothing strikes as being a real out and out challenger. Nocturnal Affair, Sole Power, Dandy Boy and Invincible Ash have patchy form this year, and although Sole Power has been running consistently, he has room to make up on horses he has finished behind this season in Bated Breath and Ortensia. As does Confessional for Ted Easterby, Beyond Desire for Roger Varian and Angels Will Fall, who does gets a weight concession being a three year old filly, but rated 104, she has work to do.

There are some horses thrown in here for reasoning that only the owners will know, presumably a jolly up in the Champagne Lounge. Secret Witness is rated 105 and is a hardened handicapper, and has placed once in Group 3 company, that being his highest achievement. Hamish McGonagall and Monsieur Joe are old sparring partners in northern listed races, and both have a victory in that level to their name thus far this season, and could have place claims if getting the run of the race up front.

Spirit Quartz is a four year old gelded son of Invincible Spirit, and has shown consistent form this season. Fifth in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, and placed in races behind Bated Breath and Ortensia, he is improving and could spring something of an upset. Masamah is rated 1lb higher, and was behind Spirit Quartz and Ortensia, provided he can step up, he is also a contender. Tangerine Trees won the Prix De L’Abbaye last year in something of a blanket finish, but rated 115, is a classy sprinter. The seven year old has been finding his feet so far this year, but like most of these sprinters seemingly in the line up, was behind Ortensia and Bated Breath in the Group 2’s at Haydock and Goodwood. Tiddliwinks won The Duke of York Stakes over six furlongs, and finished seventh in this race last year. Although a perennial bridesmaid at the top level that is usually at six furlongs, and his record over five reads 7105 and his only win was in a conditions race.

The big three that head the market are Bated Breath, Ortensia and Pearl Secret, and without overly stating the obvious, the race pivots around those three. Bated Breath is a horse that needs good ground, and Rogers Charlton’s charge should get perfect conditions, and although a multiple group winner, he has been unlucky at the top level. His form in Group One sprints reads 529222, and he has run behind horses such as Dream Ahead, Regally Ready and Little Bridge, some decent animals. Rated 118, he is the leading player, and should run close.

Pearl Secret is an unbeaten three year old colt, and trainer David Barron has gone on record saying that the chestnut colt is the best horse he has ever trained, quite lofty praise indeed. He is taking a massive step up from winning listed races at odds on though, and given his form and action, he looks like a horse who appreciates cut in the ground. He is a twice course and distance winner however, and is fiercely respected.

Save the best ‘til last; the Aussie mare ORTENSIA looks to have the added touch of class in this field, and the seven year old mare came good last time out at Goodwood, trouncing the field in style, with a good deal in hand than the two length winning margin suggested. She gave the field 4lb that day, and will be running with 3lb in her favour come Friday, and she sets the standard, being a multiple Group One winner herself. She has been running Black Caviar to 5 lengths in Australia, and can be excused her runs at Ascot and Newmarket on ground less than ideal. The quicker it is, the quicker she will run, and having already beaten almost half of this field last time out, they shouldn’t be a bother with weights reversed. Bated Breath should run her close with ground to his liking, but he will have to settle for another second place rosette, with the progressive Spirit Quartz my idea of bronze.

1, Ortensia
2. Bated Breath
3. Spirit Quartz

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

JJMSports Feature - Thursday, 3.05 at York

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The 3.05 at York may not be the flashiest on a card that includes The Lowther Stakes and The Yorkshire Oaks, but from a punting point of view, it is potentially the best race on an exquisite card. A twenty runner handicap over York’s infamous mile, a decent kitty has brought out a fair few100+ rated horses, and it looks a field of class.

The trainer who has enjoyed August like no other is Mark Johnston, and he goes mob handed at this race, with three runners. Stable jockey Joe Fanning opts for Switzerland, running with a 6lb penalty, Crown Counsel runs after a good second at Ayr last time out with Luke Morris on board, and Nicky Mackay takes the leg up on Lady Macduff. It could be folly to rule out, but none looks like being major players.

There are a further number of horses who are running out of the handicap, or due to be lowered a few pounds. In one of these big fields’ handicaps you need everything to go your way, and as such, can’t let any advantage slip, that for my money would rule out Al Muheer, Santefisio, Diamondhead and Strictly Silver.

Unlike Cheltenham, and national hunt horses in general, you rarely see horses go from festival to festival year in year out and run well, and I couldn’t conceivably see the horses that were down the field in the race last time do well, let alone the winner. Navajo Chief. He won this last year, but has had patchy form this year, his only win coming over nine furlongs here on soft ground. Up 2lb and a year older, his time may have gone again lesser exposed rivals. Similarly Invisible Man and Vainglory, who were both down the field last year behind the six year old.

That’s cut the field by half; that seemed pretty simple, wonder if the latter half will be just as simple? I doubt it.

As mentioned at the top of the article, those at the head of the weights are more likely to be the ones to be fighting out the finish, such is the competitiveness of the race, and the quality of the field, you need a bit of class to win this. Postscript won over a mile at Haydock in May and August, but is up 12lb now for those two wins, and the handicapper seems to have caught up with him. Indian Jack seems to be in the same mould, and is still on his way down to a workable mark, having not won since September last year, although the Cumani stable are in good nick. Trade Storm ran a good race in The Shergar Cup, finishing second behind Boom and Bust, but has got himself a 4lb rise for those troubles and that has likely scuppered his chances. Imperial Djay won two quick handicaps at Chester in May and June, but copped an 8lb rise for that, and is still working those pounds off, so to speak, for the Ruth Carr team.

Sandagiyr was a listed winner for Andre Fabre in France before going to Meydan, winning a Group 3, when the stable’s supposed third string, and managed to sneak home under Sylvester De Sousa. On his comeback run since then however he finished beaten twenty lengths in a German Group 2, and there are arguably more questions than answers surrounding him. Lord Aeryn is an interesting runner for Richard Fahey, winning a competitive affair last time out at Thirsk, and not overly penalised, only receiving a 2lb rise for his short head victory margin.

The remaining four will probably hold the majority of answers, with Excellent Guest being fancied in his last two runs at Ascot and Goodwood in similar contests. Going off 8/1 2f last time out at Goodwood, he was beaten by just under three lengths, finishing fifth of twenty runners to the well backed and seemingly well in Mark Johnston trained Fulbright, and given his form and consistency, he has strong plain claims. As does Prince of Johanne, a classy animal rated 105, who has dropped down to a mile this year after running over (and winning) decent events last year, his highlight and claim to fame winning The Cesarewitch last year. Dropping back to a mile, lost by a nose to Fury over course and distance off 98, and then won The Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. Fifth in a listed race at Pontefract, and beaten five lengths behind Excellent Guest in The Betfred Mile, he should be a leading player, although a 7lb rise since his run over course and distance in may scupper him.

Aneriego is coming back after two course and distance victories for the David O’ Meara yard and the four year old possesses a very progressive profile. A well bred son of Invincible Spirit, he lost his way and came to the stable from Dermot Weld at the start of the season, and has been revitalised. Form figures of 4725211 suggest he is getting better, and although a 13lb rise, may still be unexposed. Kahruman has been well backed already, and he could be the stereotypical group horse hiding in an open handicap field. The William Haggas Mr Greeley colt was thrown in at the deep end after winning a Kempton maiden and wasn’t disgraced finishing fourth in a good looking race, before a game sixth of twenty nine in The Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Quite the conundrum then eh? Four year old’s have had a cracking record in the race, as seen with Navajo Chief last year, and they will hold the answers here again. Postscript, Indian Jack and Sandagiyr are all unexposed, and if the money were to come, they would be worth another look. Kahruman is off the same ilk, but given the connections of Sheikh Hamdan, Haggas and Hanagan, will likely be punted into next week. Given how well that man Fallon rides around The Knavesmire, and the two facile course and distance winner Anderiego won around here, he looks the one to side with. Up 13lb, but with a shrewd stable, and won with plenty up his sleeve, eased down, he could have upwards of 7lb in hand for my money, and with the pace up front in abundance, he will likely have the race set up for him.


1. Anderiego
2. Kahruman
3. Lord Aeryn
4. Prince of Johanne


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports