Weekend Tipping, Ascot, Newmarket and The Arc

A fantastic weekend of racing afoot, with Ascot hosting a fantastic card, including a Group 2's, a listed race as well as the Challenge Cup, a tough 28 runner handicap, with the seasons most versatile and arguably the best handicappers in racing this season. There is also racing at Newmarket, with more of the rich sales races for two year olds, not to mention the richest race in Europe with the Arc being at Longchamp Sunday, and lots of European challangers aiming to bring the prize across the channel for the third successive year.

The Arc is the richest and arguably the most coveted race in the world, and is the second most important race when it comes to the breeding industry, only behind the Derby and with top breeding operations having the Arc as their number one target. Coolmore, Juddmonte, Darley and The Aga Khan have stamped their print on this race, and all will have entrants aiming to carry on their fine tradition. Coolmore and Ballydoyle are likely to have southern hemisphere sensation So You Think as their spearhead, and should go well on ground that will suit, with little rain forecast. Despite disappointing in the Prix Foy, St Nicholas Abbey could still turn out, although would be suited with more cut in the ground. They are also represented by Irish Derby first and second, Treasure Beach and Seville, Epsom Oakes second Wonder of Wonders and likely pacemaker Regent Street.

The drying ground is also likely to suit dual Oaks heroine Snow Fairy, who ran So You Think home in the Irish Champion Stakes, and seems prime for a fine autumn campaign. Last year's winner WORKFORCE seems to suit the track, especially the long punishing straight, but with him again having fitness worries given his recent King George run after hanging badly, he could not backed with high amounts of confidence. A horse with a good chance is GALIKOVA, half sister to champion miler Goldikova, and put her Prix De Diane second behind when winning the traditional Arc trial the Prix Vermaille. The daughter of Galileo seemed to thrive when stepping up to a mile and a half, after previously winning a Group Two at Deauville, turning the tables on French Oaks winner Golden Lilac. Galikova will get lumps of weight being a three year old fillee, and has to be considered. The main challenge and leading threat however represents HH Aga Khan, who aims to follow Zarkava's win in 2008 with SARAFINA, who looks to build on a disappointing third last year. She was badly hampered in running, and arguably would have finished much closer were it not for the argy bargy in behind. She has been a model of consistency since starting her four year old campaign, taking her career earnings over the £1 million mark. After finishing second in the Prix Ganay, she has won a further three races, the last two over 12 furlongs. She travels like a dream, and stays so well, winning her last three races in the final strides, all winning on hands and heels rides from Cristophe Lemaire, and providing she can avoid trouble in running, she should carry on her record over never finishing out of the front three at Longhchamp on Sunday.

WAHYLAH runs in the Tattersalls 2yo Trophy at Newmarket, and aims to give connections back to back wins after Clive Brittain's Masaya won last year under Tom Queally. Wahylah stepped up on her maiden run by running well in a group two before winning a good sales race at Newmarket last time out, and looks to have the experience and the pedigree to take a race of this calibre.

Richard Hannon's stable jockey, Richard Hughes can't be at Ascot Saturday, but the chances of MONSIEUR CHEVALIER look very good, following his late win at Goodwood in a listed contest last time out. He got a master ride from Steve Drowne that day to win by a nose, and based on his Golden Jubilee Stakes form, he looks to set a high standard. Six furlongs seem to be his optimum trip, and although the Golden Jubilee form has not worked out too well, he still looks to be the best horse in a highly competitive Group 3 contest.

QUEST FOR PEACE looks to be another chance for Kieren Fallon to make some ground on champion jockey Paul Hanagan when riding for boss Luca Cumani in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot. Closely related to multiple Group 1 winner Misty For Me, this son of Galileo was last seen building on maident promise by winning a very good listed race at Roscommon over a mile and a half. Hayizna, Address Unknown and Unity, all down the field have all come out and ran well, and the colt looks to have bags of improvement to come. He has tough competitors in last years St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos and John Smiths Cup favourite Pekan Star, but the unexposed three year old can build on an already promising start to his career here at Ascot.

Prix De L'arc De Triomphe - Sarafina & Galikova (Ew)

2.25 Newmarket - Wahylah

2.40 Ascot - Quest For Peace (Nap)

3.15 Ascot - Monsieur Chevalier

Midweek Talking Turf - Salisbury Wednesday 28th September

Racing is still revving up its build up towards Champions Days, and it seems that the meeting can not come soon enough for the thriving yard of Richard Hannon and stable jockey and son in law, Richard Hughes. After having their trademark flying start to the season, with horses such as Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs and Harbour Watch delighting connections, they have come into their own recently, with their two year olds taking some of the top sales and auction races. They aim to continue their imperious form at Salisbury on Wednesday, with big chances from an eight race card, with the highlight being a Class 2 conditions race with some smart looking two year old's.

The conditions race looks a competitive affair, with Godolphin represented through the unbeaten son of Rahy; Ihsas under Ted Durcan, which looks like the pick on paper of the challengers. Good horses from the Ed McMahon, Roger Charlton and Mick Channon yard also compete, but the best chance looks to be from in form with GUSTO turning out for Richard Hannon, ridden by Richard Hughes. After winning a maiden at the second attempt, the Oasis Dream colt ran a good fourth in a listed race at York behind My Propellor and then didn't like the ground when running on soft ground at Ripon. Dropped down in class and on good ground should mean the highest rated horse in the race can carry on the fine form for the team.

They look to have have another good chance in the 3.00 with AVON RIVER, who looks to build on his recent victory in claiming company, and is weighted to complete a quick fire double. He won with ease over 10 furlongs last time out at Folkestone and heads to Salisbury in good heart. On ratings, he has a minimum of 3lb on the entire field, and with Royal Opera coming out and winning next time out, the form couldn't be further franked.

We shall stick with the Richard Hughes and the Richard Hannon stable for the 2.30, as Class 3 Novice Stakes with connections having the likely favourite, and once more, the top two year old in the race. LORD OF THE SHADOWS is yet to finish any worse than fourth out of his 6 career starts, and has easily the best form in the race. As well as a maiden win, the son of Kyllachy has achieved some notable performances, including losing by a narrow head in a Goodwood handicap and by a neck in a Salisbury listed race. He is dropped back to 7 furlongs, which should suit given his runs over a mile in his last two races, tiring and showing the effects in the latter stages. Frog Hollow for the Ralph Beckett yard and Waseem Faris and Mr Spiggot for Mick Channon look to be the main dangers, but with the Hannon horse having a 12lb pull at the weights, he should win, and win well.

Ed McMahon horses notoriously come on for their first runs, which is a trend that should seemingly bode well for IRON RANGE, who is sent into a handicap after winning a decent Ayr maident over 6 furlongs on good ground. The second and third have come out and done well, with several placed efforts in handicaps, as well as the second and the fifth both coming out and winning since. It is a little worrying that he has yet to be seen since his maiden win over a year ago, and providing he is race fit, he should go very close.

3.00 Salisbury - Avon River (Nap)

3.35 Salisbury - Gusto

2.30 Salisbury - Lord of the Shadows

4.10 Salisbury - Iron Range

Folkestone 20th September 2011 Tipping and Selections

Folkestone isn't the most overly fashionable of racetracks, but the picturesque area of the south-east of England, and seems to have become somewhat of a hotspot for their meeting Tuesday, with world class, creme de la creme turning out on Tuesday for their six race card. Jockeys such as Frankie Dettori, Kieren Fallon, Richard Hills, Tom Queally and Martin Dwyer to name but a few, shall be riding for their highly respected connections.

The most notable personnel at the track is the average punters favourite jockey, the synonymous Leofranco Dettori, who has two rides, one for his boss, Sheikh Mohammed in the 4.50 maiden race, but perhaps more interestingly for trainer George Baker in the first race, the 2.20, a five furlong nursery. There seems to be something of a blossoming relationship between Dettori and Baker, with Frankie giving Baker his first Listed winner on Humidor in the Scarborough Stakes at York's Ebor Festival last month. He has had two rides for the trainer this month and has 100% strike rate. He rides BILLYRAYVALENTINE, who he won with last time out, and was backed off the boards from 7/2 into 7/4 favourite when justifying support and hacking up when making light work of a favourable racing mark. He runs with a 6lb penalty but seemingly has buckets in hand, and anything at odds against looks an absolute steal.

Roger Varian has taken onto training like a duck does to water, and it is no surprise he is thriving, after taking over from his old boss Michael Jarvis. He has inherited a lot of good horses, and seems to be getting a fair crop from Sheikh Hamdan al Makthoum, including Derby hopeful Entifaadha. He has a close relative in EMKANAAT, who won a good Lingfield maiden last week, and is now sent handicapping. The three year old gelding was heavily eased and still won by a considerable five lengths, and looks to have bags of improvement still to come, and a mark of 80 is more than workable. Retained jockey Richard Hills is on board, and although in my head that is a slight negative, he has 6 winners from 35 rides in September, five favourites, two of which being odds on, so not the most reliable and successful of jockeys, but should still be able to get the job done on Emkanaat.

RED CURRENT is a very interesting runner for the relatively quiet Michael Scudamore yard. The hatrick seeking mare was impressive when switching back to the flat after an unsuccessful time over hurdles, and finishing third Chepstow before seemingly relishing really good ground at Bath and being a surprise 10/1 winner under apprentice David Kenny. That was followed up by another win under the same rider at Folkestone, stepped up to 2 miles, and again won well, with the winning distance of a head not being the true reflection of the manner of victory. A lot of her rivals will be running over a trip that is unknown, and with stamina worries over rivals such as Thundering Home for George Baker and Kieren Fallon, although Red Current is up 13lb since two runs ago, looks good value to complete the hatrick for his young apprentice rider.

Folkestone Tuesday:

2.20 - Billyrayvalentine (Nap)

3.20 - Emkanaat

3.50 - Red Current

Saturday Tipping - Saturday 17th September, Ayr and Newbury

The showpiece race of Ayr's autumn three day festival is the Ayr Gold Cup, one of the most prestigious sprint handicap races of the flat season with a first prize of £74,000, and it invariably attracts some of the best speedsters in the country. Trainer Dandy Nicholls usually arrives in Scotland mob handed and had five runners last year, including the winner, Redford. This year he has chances with Regal Parade, Tajneed and Evens and Odds, but I’m going to look elsewhere.

Jim Goldie’s Hawkeyethenoo is a tough, consistent sort who finished down the field last year, but has been in good form this year, winning the Victoria Cup at Ascot. Pepper Lane has been a talisman for trainer David O' Meara and completed a hatrick when winning The Great St Wilfred at Thirsk, but has gone up 22lb since the start of his winning sequence. Eton Rifles was impressive when landing a massive gamble under the incomparable K Fallon in the second leg of the Betfair Summer Double.

However, the leading prospect here may be MACS POWER, for the James Fanshawe stable. He has been running well in good quality handicaps this season, and seems to thrive on good ground. He didn't seem to enjoy soft ground in a listed race at Newmarket, but before that ran well behind subsequent narrow Sprint Cup third Hoof It. He is yet to get that slice of luck that is often needed in these big sprint races, and off a decent weight, with the ground possibly in his favour, I am expecting another big win for the successful Fanshawe and Cosgrave partnership.

Aside from Ayr there is an excellent card at Newbury, including the Arc Trial, won last year by the subsequent Breeders Cup Turf winner Dangerous Midge. This tough colt looks to defend his crown, after winning this race in impressive style last year against a good field, including Group One winners Rainbow Peak and Campanologist. His last run was at Meydan in the Sheema Classic where he appeared not to handle the surface and finished last. From his runs last year he sets a good standard, Green Destiny steps up in trip and it is unknown whether he will stay.

Caspar Netcher is a juvenile who has gradually been stepped up in class after a maiden win and a second in a conditions race. From there, he finished second, third and fourth in listed races, including a third to Frederick Engels in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot. A third in a Group 3 race behind current ante post 2000 Guineas favourite Harbour Watch was then topped by a Group 2 win last time out in the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) at York. The form was franked from Burwaaz who finished second next time out, and Reply winning the big sales race last weekend for Ballydoyle. As a final plus, that man Fallon is booked.

2.30 Newbury - Caspar Netcher (Nap)

2.00 Newbury - Dangerous Midge

3.20 Ayr - Macs Power (Ew)

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Midweek Tipping - Sandown, Yarmouth and Ayr

Hopefully we can continue the rich vein of form we’ve hit this autumn, as it has started out tremendously successful with King Torus and Dream Ahead being selected a week last Saturday, before our midweek nap Meeznah romped home, before we managed to find the front two home in the Leger. Let’s hope we can keep up the good work.

Hopefully that can be carried through to Wednesday, where we have nice racing at Beverley, Sandown and Yarmouth. The eye-catcher is William Buick’s decision to ride there as opposed to Sandown where he could have picked up some good rides for his boss John Gosden, who has three very good runners there, all with chances.

This leads me to believe the fact he has gone to Yarmouth means he fancies his chances there, and his best chance looks to be ALMAGEST, who runs in a Class 3 handicap after breaking his maiden tag at the third attempt. The son of Galileo finished fourth in his previous run, a 17 runner maiden at Sandown. From that, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th all came out and won next time out, with Highland Castle, third that day, winning 3 of his next 5 races. On breeding the gelding could have plenty to offer and, dropped in on a very reasonable looking handicap mark, can carry on the rich vein of form of St Leger winners John Gosden and William Buick.

The best quality race on Wednesday is a Listed Race, open to older horses, and includes a few horses that we’ve already tipped up in previous weeks. This includes the Andrew Balding filly LAY TIME, who ran a respectable fourth in listed company last time out after being narrowly defeated in a handicap, when she really should have won. MIKHAIL GLINKA, now with Gary Moore, was trained by Aidan O' Brien at Ballydoyle when winning the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot in 2009 and was ante post favourite for the St Leger, so is respected.

The standout however is KING TORUS, from the Richard Hannon stable, which is enjoying another fruitful season. King Torus ran a respectable fourth on his seasonal reappearance after being out for over a year, and then showed tremendous class to win under the guidance of Richard Hughes at Haydock in a similar event. He won with plenty in hand that day, being eased down, and another effort similar should be good enough in what looks, on paper, to be a weaker race than his Haydock one.

A horse that is as tough as old boots is HOT ROD MAMMA, who has won five races on the bounce in an excellent piece of training from Dianne Sawyer, who has placed the horse to perfection. Her last three wins have been over a mile, but appeared to indicate further would be no problem at all when romping a 10 runner field last time out at Thirsk by 4 1/2 lengths, after being eased. Lee Topliss takes the ride, and the 3lb he claims could be invaluable in a race that looks very competitive. Hot Rod Mamma is a tough, improving sort, and I wouldn't put it past her to make it 6 from 6 on Thursday.

4.30 Yarmouth - Almagest (Nap)

4.05 Sandown - King Torus

4.20 Ayr (Thursday) - Hot Rod Mamma

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Saturday September 10th - British and Irish St Leger

Saturday sees the culmination of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster, with the last classic of the season looking like being an all-star affair. Similarly at The Curragh across the Irish Sea, we have the Irish St Leger as well as the Group One Matron Stakes, an opportunity for the top juveniles to place their future classic credentials on the line.

We’ll start by looking at the St Leger, which looks a tremendous race on paper. Sir Michael Stoute’s Sea Moon looks likely to start favourite. This fast-improving colt won the Great Voltigeur Stakes by an impressive 10 lengths, beating Irish Derby runner-up Seville and Queens Vase winner Namibian. The well bred colt has been patiently waited with by trainer Sir Michael Stoute and sets the standard on that run.

The only possible negative is that on breeding grounds, the horse is not 100% guaranteed to stay the trip. Therefore, preference lies with two perceived 'value' options, the first of which is BROWN PANTHER, who looked like a tip-top stayer in the making when routing his opponents in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was unlucky in Hamburg in the German Derby, where he didn’t really get the run of the race. He then returned from a break when a held second in the Group Two Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury. It looks like there may still be improvement to come and he has been earmarked for the race since winning at Royal Ascot.

Another horse who should relish conditions is MASKED MARVEL, who races for last year’s winning trainer and jockey, John Gosden and William Buick. Masked Marvel looked impressive when holding Census last time out at Newmarket, winning over 1m 5f at the July Cup meeting. Masked Marvel's form looks solid enough. Being a son of Montjeu, the trip and possible soft ground would be more of a help than a hindrance against his rivals and I can see both him and Brown panther going off at much shorter odds on the day than they are now.

Red Duke was incredibly unlucky in the Group Two Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and can bounce back for connections at Doncaster. Jockey Kieren Fallon was unlucky in running, travelling with a double handful, but no gap appeared, leaving Red Duke ready to race but with nowhere to go. The opposition on Saturday looks an even better standard than Goodwood, with promising Sheikh Hamdan horse Entifadhaa setting an impressive benchmark, with his Group Three win at York being franked by two listed winners. There is also competitive yardstick Trumpet Major for Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes, however we will stay loyal to Red Duke and hope Mr. Fallon does not make the same mistake twice!

There is another hotpot favourite in the Irish St Leger on Saturday at the Curragh and the best word to describe him as is 'bomb proof'. FAME AND GLORY was another Ascot Giold Cup winner for trainer Aidan O' Brien earlier in the year in the Ascot Gold Cup, handling the soft conditions well. Fame and Glory should have no problem dropping back in trip to 1m 6f having been a Group One winner at 10f and 12f. He was disappointing last time out, returning after his Gold Cup win, looking laboured in the Leger trial, losing out by a neck to Fictional Account. Jamie Spencer was very patient however with him that day, and he should be fresher and more tuned up for this crack at yet another Group One.

Jack Milner

3.50 Curragh - Fame and Glory (Nap)

2.05 Doncaster - Red Duke

3.10 Doncaster - Masked Marvel (Ew) & Brown Panther (Ew)

Doncaster St Leger Meeting - Friday 9th September

The Flying Childers Stakes looks set for another cracking renewal, and although there are lots of big stables with Requinto, Burwaaz, Lilbourne Lad and Angels Will Fall all representing powerful yards, I think it will come down to two horses, depending on the ground. If it comes up good, My Propellor will be difficult to beat, following up her impressive maiden win with a listed win at York. However my value option is KOHALA for the David Barron yard. A model of consistency, and the form from her Queen Mary 4th is absolutely rock solid. She sets the standard.

Few of interest in this one, with no real obvious stand out pick. Eternal Heart ran a good race behind Motrice at Goodwood two weeks ago, and Will Buick has kept the ride on the Mark Johnston colt, which is of interest. Precision Break won this race off a 1lb lower mark, but faces five more rivals than last year, and may struggle for fitness on only his second run of the season. The Fallon factor sways us with BOURNE, who looked an out and out potential stayer when second in the Old Newton Cup. He stayed on strongly, has that man Fallon on board, and has a low weight to carry, and the Luca Cumani gelding may hold the key.

Absolute banker of the meeting runs in the Doncaster Cup and that is my trusty OPINION POLL, whom I napped last time out in the Goodwood Cup, and should once more be too strong against a much inferior field. Trip of 2m 2f should suit the Godolphin animal moreso than anyone else, and his form is absolutely rock solid. The more rain the better, and that will only effect the winning distance. Cue a flying dismount for the Doncaster locals!

Toughest race on the card is the May Hill Stakes, a fillies group two, with some promising juveniles. Samitar sets the obvious benchmark, winning the Albany and then being an arguabley unlucky runner up at Newmarket next time out. Regal Realm looked highly progressive from her recent group three win, and has some promising entries. As does John Gosden's Fallen For You, whose maiden form has worked out well, and the daughter of Dansili is entered in the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. Hard to stray from SAMITAR however, who should relish the conditions and sets the best standard.

Another horse with a seemingly bright future is the Sheikh Hamdan horse EKTIHAAM, and although it pains me to side for a horse with Richard Hills on board, he looks to be potentially a superstar. Entered in the Royal Lodge, Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy, he made easy work of Harvard n' Yale in his maiden, who is another extremely well bred colt, and then won a Newmarket maiden next time out. Even Richard Hills can get this one home chaps!

BELOW ZERO looks a colt who has sneaked his way ahead of the handicapper, and although carries a 6lb penalty for a recent victory, looks well in. After finishing third in the second leg of the Betfair Summer Double, he was punted off the boards with Fran Berry on in the September Handicap at Leopardstown, winning very cosily. The big danger looks to be the Easterby gelding Grissom seeking the hatrick, but again we put our faithin King Kieren!

Final race of the card, tough classified stakes, a race where three year olds have an excellent record, Godolphin's Willing Foe building on the record last year. Two stand outs come in the Mashaaref for Richard Hills and Roger Varian, a son of Cape Cross who is fairly unexposed, and Beaten Up for William Haggas and Richard Hughes, an unbeaten gelding aiming to build upon a solid maiden win in April at Ripon. Hard to pick between the two but based on BEATEN UP's maiden form, we shall side with Yorkshireman William Haggas in the lucky last.

1.25 Kohala

1.55 Bourne

2.25 Opinion Poll (Nap)

3.00 Samitar

3.35 Ektihaam (Nb)

4.10 Below Zero

4.40 Beaten Up