Cheltenham Day One - Ante Post Thoughts

I’ll try and collate my ante post thoughts, as well as already outlaying the portfolio. Some ante post players are obviously looking better than others!


The Supreme Novices Hurdle

I wrote pieces on both My Tent or Yours and Waaheb, both prior to their hurdling debuts, and I am still big fans of both. My Tent or Yours has been backed at 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 10/1, with Waheeb being taken at 12/1, 10/1, and once again at 16/1 with the drift after his second to Jezki last time out. I still like both, with preference for Nicky Henderson’s charge. He tanks through his races, and will be well suited to the fast pace, and like Waaheb, should improve with better ground. Jezki has run well in muddling graded races in Ireland, and despite being snapped up by JP, still doesn’t appeal at the prices. Nor does Un Atout or River Maigue, very short for winning nothing races last time out. I don’t like Paul Nicholls horses, so would be opposed to Dodging Bullets, and Puffin Billy and Melodic Rendezvous are likely to go for The Neptune instead.


The Arkle Chase

This looks to be a graveyard from an ante post perspective, as my most backed horse, that I really got stuck into, doesn’t even look likely to run. Captain Conan is still the value call for me if runs, and I think he looks a very smart chaser, winning over course and distance already this year, and following up smartly at Sandown. He’s been backed at 14/1, 12/1, 10/1 and 7/1, and would love to see him take on Simonsig. I have also backed Colour Squadron and Sire De Grugy at 20/1 as savers, but it is looking bleak. Looking at the market at the moment now, it is a definite no bet. Simonsig is very short, I don’t think Overturn represents value, with nothing else likely to run. Arvika Ligeonniare fell in the Irish Arkle, and at around the 10/1 mark, if forced to have a bet, that would be the each way play.


The Festival Handicap Chase

I will be sticking with two regular selections of mine, who both ran in the race with credit last year, and both look to be still well handicapped. The Package and Fruity ‘O Rooney look to have been laid out for this race throughout the season, and although no bets at the moment, I could be tempted very shortly.

The Champion Hurdle

I was unimpressed by Hurricane Fly’s run in The Irish Champion Hurdle, it was all so very similar, beating the same horses, by the same margins, it is rather worthless form. The horse I have been backing for the best part of 18 months for this race remains my selection – Grandouet. His re-appearance after a year out in The International was a fantastic run, and bearing in mind he gave a race fit Zarkander 4lb, to lose by two lengths was an excellent effort. He has course form, will relish better ground and a quicker pace, Barry Geraghty will hit the last still on the snaff. Irrespective what happens at Cheltenham aside from this, Grandouet wins, and it’s a happy and profitable Cheltenham. Two small savers are on Darlan and Oscar Whisky, both at 16/1.

The Cross Country Chase

I wouldn’t particularly like to get involved in a race like this, and haven’t done thus far. The two likely to tempt me are Balthazar King and Uncle Junior, both have won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course in the last season, and both have a touch of class, but I won’t be getting involved ante post.

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Quevega wins. Lump on the day, no play ante post.


Centenary Novices Chase

I’d be lucky to back the winner on the day, let alone seven weeks before, when the usual suspects, Henderson, Pipe et al, have yet to properly have a plot for this. There are a couple of eye-catchers with entries however. JP has two of them, Colour Squadron and Cantlow. Both look to want further judging by their novices chases, and if they start being nibbled in the market, it would be a very good sign indeed.

Best Bet - Grandouet
Next Best - My Tent Or Yours


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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Weekend Racing De-Brief

12.30 Wetherby – Many Clouds. IR Low 2.32, finishing position – 2nd

Many Clouds travelled nicely for Leighton Aspell, but was a very questionable ride, with Jason Maguire able to make all on second favourite Up and Go. Many Clouds got caught in a pocket behind two stragglers about half a mile out, before making stealthy late headway, to make around fifteen lengths, to take second late on. Giving weight to the winner, he may need further, but looks a very smart novice hurdler, and is highly thought of by trainer Oliver Sherwood.

13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master. IR Low 1.37, finishing position – 2nd

Another disappointing result with Poole Master travelling like a dream throughout, and watching the replay, I was still shocked to see him lose. Tom Scudamore presses on early, and has them all at it about three out, before being seemingly outstayed by Fourjacks. The winner got a lovely ride by Brian Harding, and both pull clear from the third. Poole Master may be put away for a two and a half mile handicap chase at Cheltenham, and I wouldn’t write him off.


1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge. IR Low 1.95, finishing position – 3rd

Highland Lodge was well backed before the off, but just like last year, he really didn’t appreciate the track, and his normally impressive jumping, was disappointing and sketchy. He looked awkward at his fences, and carried his head to the left, and set the race up for Rocky Creek. I would write off the race, as he clearly doesn’t handle the track. I wouldn’t consider him an RSA horse, but could be a sleeper if aiming for The JLT Speciality Handicap Chase over three miles on the first day.


2.25 Warwick – The Package. IR Low 2.1, finishing position – PU.

The biggest disappointment of the day, The Package travelled like a dream before meeting the third last all wrong and losing all momentum. Understandable why he traded so low, before three out, six of them pulled clear, and the place money looked absolutely guaranteed. I still think the world of him, and have to think the three mile handicap chase would be his aim for the season, if not The National. I will still be backing him where he goes next, and think he is a superstar.


3.00 Warwick – The New One. IR Low N/A, finishing position – 1st.

Won stylishly, and would be a definite player in The Neptune, having already got course and distance form, and is now the clear favourite for the two and a half mile contest. The trainer and jockey think the world of him, and he looks a very smart animal.


3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge. IR Low 1.01, finishing position - 2nd.

Ran a stormer to get gubbed by Rigaden De Beauchene after out-battling Pete the Feat after jumping the last. Done at 1.01 on Betfair, it was a real blow, and really cemented the day’s over-riding emotion of so close and yet so far. A tremendous ride from Wayne Hutchinson, who was niggling away on the final bend, there will be a big prize awaiting Godsmejudge, who may go for something like The Eider Chase, or The Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Saturday Racing at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby

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Many Clouds has excellent form tied in with Gevrey Chambertin, Coneygree and the like, and is clearly a progressive novice hurdler. Even with a penalty, he will be tough to beat tomorrow, and is a course and distance winner already around Wetherby.


As will Poole Master, and it is interesting that Tom Scudamore travels to Wetherby instead of Kempton and Warwick for Pond House, and this will be one of the reasons why. Always going to be a chaser, he has progressed nicely in his two starts, and runs at a level that should be right up his street.


Another exciting novice chaser is Highland Lodge, who was very impressive last time out when out galloping Our Father at Cheltenham. He looks an absolute staying chaser in the making and possible perhaps a Welsh National horse in time. He will love the ground, and will likely gallop his rivals into submission. The presence of Rocky Creek will solely further enhance his price and reputation.


Another useful novice is The New One, who is a leading fancy for The Neptune Hurdle at The Cheltenham Festival, after building on his useful bumper form to win a nice novice hurdle at the track in October. He has a mark of 143, and over the extended two and a half miles, he will be tough to beat, at an albeit skinny price.


Regular readers of this blog will know my opinion of The Package. Timmy Murphy is back to ride him in a three mile handicap hurdle, and he can take advantage of a 13lb better off mark than his chase rating. The form of The Hennessy has worked out tremendously well, finishing behind The Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth, and Lexus Chase 1-2 in Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He is the best bet of the day.


The final fancy is somewhat speculative, but Alan King’s record in The Classic Chase speaks for itself and in my eyes it is an even stronger positive with Wayne Hutchinson on board. He rides Godsmejudge, who has built like a smart staying novice handicap chaser, brought about slowly. He ran with credit in three mile novice hurdles last year, and has taken to chasing well, winning a nice looking beginner’s chase last time out at Folkestone. Bradley and Pete the Feat will be tough to beat, but I’m hopeful of a big run.


12.30 Wetherby – Many Clouds
13.05 Wetherby – Poole Master
1.15 Warwick– Highland Lodge
2,25 Warwick – The Package (Nap)
3.00 Warwick – The New One
3.35 Warwick – Godsmejudge


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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Saturday Racing at Chepstow, Sandown and Wincanton

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I don’t really like betting at Wincanton, but Gevrey Chambertin looks banker material, running in the two and a half mile handicap hurdle as opposed to stepping up in class. The half-brother to Grands Crus has excellent form tied in with the likes of Corrin Wood, Coneygree and Fourjacks, and an opening handicap mark of 130 looks extremely lenient. He should take this, en route to much greater things.


Big Fella Thanks was somewhat of an unlucky loser last time in The Becher Chase at Aintree, travelling extremely well, before finding trouble in running, and tiring towards the end of the extended three mile slog. He is dropped down in trip in to two mile five furlongs for the first time in forever, and he runs off an unrevised mark. On his old form he is still very well handicapped, despite being the ripe old age of eleven.


I tipped up and backed Teaforthree ante post in The Welsh National and even now, it can be stated that he still looks something of a good thing. Rebecca Curtis’s Cheltenham Festival winner has had two runs to get him spot on, and has travelled in style during both run; in The Hennessy and in a handicap chase at Cheltenham. He ticks every box for The Welsh National, course form, will love the ground, and has been laid out for the race. He will take all of the beating.


Court Minstrel chased home Dodging Bullets and River Maigue in a Cheltenham juvenile hurdle, and looks a good price for The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown for Evan Williams and Paul Moloney. Nicky Henderson has two runners, and given his record in the race, they are obviously respected. The form of Court Minstrel’s last run looks the best piece of form in the book, despite Pendra being something of a sleeper in the field.


The form of The Hennessy has been franked in recent weeks with First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay finishing first and second in The Lexus Chase in Ireland, and Teaforthree well backed for The Welsh National. Seventh in The Hennessy was Fruity O’ Rooney, who tired in the latter stages and it is a massive plus that he is dropping down to three miles. Although the ground would be a slight worry, he looks the most talented in a tricky and trappy looking handicap.


14.05 Wincanton – Gevrey Chambertin (Nap)
14.25 Sandown - Court Minstrel
14.40 Wincanton – Big Fella Thanks
15.20 Chepstow – Teaforthree
15.40 Sandown – Fruity O’Rooney


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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Saturday at Doncaster and Newbury

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Newbury hosts a very interesting card on Saturday, with some talented novices on display, none more so curious than COLOUR SQUADRON for Phillip Hobbs and his new owner, JP McManus, who is enjoying a particularly fruitful week. He has form at novice level with the likes of Montbazon, Captain Conan and Dedigout, and was always going to make a chaser. He won first time out last year, and should take his novice chase, en route to greater things. He could be an outsider for The Arkle at The Cheltenham Festival. Another festival prospect for the same owner is MY TENT OR YOURS, who was scintillating in his maiden hurdle win at Ascot, beating next time out winner Taquin Du Seuil whilst pulling hard throughout. He runs with a penalty, but looks a good thing, and I’m personally on him for The Supreme Novices Hurdle at 25/1, so obviously very hopeful. Another horse that looks the metaphorical ‘penalty kick’ and another with festival aspirations is CLONDAW KAEMPFER, who is currently a leading player in the market for the Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has transferred his bumper form smartly, winning a listed hurdle over two miles last time out at Haydock, with plenty left in the tank. He clipped a few hurdles, and the trip was never going to suit; and over the Neptune trip, he should have further improvement, and will eventually be a smart staying chaser. Elsewhere on the card, STATE BENEFIT can follow up his win last time at Sandown, despite a 3lb rise from the handicapper. He was having his first run for 209 days, and showed his fatigue late on, so the run under his belt should help his fitness, and Barry Geraghty is legged up for the all-conquering Nicky Henderson team.


1.35 Newbury – Colour Squadron
2.10 Newbury – State Benefit
2.45 Newbury – Clondaw Kaempfer
3.50 Newbury – My Tent or Yours


Over at Doncaster, there is the usual spread of competitive and mine-field handicaps, the kind where the formbook really does need a good fettling. There are three I like the look of, the first being CORKAGE, a previous Doncaster winner, who ran with great credit when fourth over course and distance, losing by a narrow length, despite making mistakes. He should be getting his fitness sharper, and won around the track on his third start of last season after a lengthy absence. Despite a 4lb rise, he should be a player at a price. TRIPTICO won last time out, but was even more impressive when second on his seasonal debut, chasing home the promising Donald McCain chaser Kruzhlnin over an inadequate trip. Stepped up to two and a half miles saw him win coming away at Chepstow on heavy going, and there should be further to come stepped up to three miles. He should relish the ground, having handled Chepstow. Speaking of Mr McCain, he has BLACKWATER KING in the two mile handicap hurdle, which looks to have been given a very lenient mark from the handicapper; someone must have got a nice Christmas card in the post. A ten length winner of a novice hurdle at Kelso on soft ground, this point winner should be able to step up further, providing he handles the ground with aplomb.


2.25 Doncaster – Corakge
2.55 Doncaster – Triptico
3.25 Doncaster – Blackwater King


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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Christmas Punting - Ascot, Chepstow, Kempton and Leopsrdstown

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A big week of punting ahead with some terrific action at Ascot, Chepstow, Kempton and Leopardstown with a plethora of Group One races on offer, mixed with extremely tough and competitive handicaps.


The first of which comes at Ascot on Saturday, with The Ladbroke Hurdle on a card that is set to have Nicky Henderson’s heavy artillery unleashed, including the promising Simonsig. The Ladbroke Hurdle was won last year by Raya Star for Alan King, and he has the current ante post favourite in Balder Success, beating the tough juvenile Hollow Tree easily last time out at Haydock. He looks unexposed, has course form and loves soft ground, and is sure to be a leading player. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have been mopping up Saturday cards so far this season, and have two leading fancies in Ranjaan and Cash and Go, but a stable that burst into form last Saturday was Emma Lavelle’s. Wins for Highland Lodge, Court In Motion, Easter Meteor and Caught By Surprise all winning valuable prizes. Her next dart to throw is CLARET CLOAK who ran a stormer to finish third when punted off the boards last time out over course and distance, tiring late on. Dominic Elsworth will likely be back on board, and is another enjoying a purple patch, riding for Emma Lavelle, Mick Channon, and Paul Webber. His record for the last six rides reads 161122 – and is in good fettle.


We all know what the real highlight of Christmas is, and it isn’t listening to your nan bring back her sprouts via the rumblings of the methane soaked sofa. No, one of the highlights of the horse racing calendar is, The King George VI Chase at Kempton Park, a race that Kauto Star has dominated since the turn of the millennium, winning a record breaking five times. Paul Nicholls has his half-brother Kauto Stone, but he isn’t in the same league. Versatile performers such as Captain Chris, Hunt Ball, The Giant Bolster and Champion Court don’t look to have the class to win a Grade 1 Chase over three miles.

Riverside Theatre and Long Run of Nicky Henderson head the market, but stablemate FINIANS RAINBOW is well worth a punt at bigger prices. The Champion Chaser won over two and a half miles at Aintree, and the step up in trip will suit, as long as it doesn’t come up too soft. GRANDS CRUS is another over-priced horse due to a poor performance last time out on soft, but won The Feltham Chase over course and distance in a quicker time than The King George. Both horses he beat that day are unbeaten with Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth winning five graded races since. Both could end up dropping down in trip for The Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in March, and with BetVictor’s Non Runner-Free Bet offer, look well worth a punt in that market too.


The Welsh National has been the plan for TEAFORTHREE ever since winning The National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March. He showed tremendous guts and tenacity to battle back, and after being headed after trying to make all. The ground was probably on the quick side for him then, and the mud at Chepstow will play in his favour. He has had two runs to get him fit, and jumped extremely impressively both starts at Cheltenham and Newbury. Everything is in his favour, and he looks an extremely good bet.


Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival looks an absolute cracker, with a host of Grade 1’s, and that will probably throw up a host of contenders for Cheltenham glory, with the two mile novice hurdle being a particularly strong looking renewal. The Lexus Chase is set up to be a great renewal, with Tidal Bay, Flemenstar and Hidden Cyclone being stand out entries, but the horse with everything in his favour is SIR DES CHAMPS. Willie Mullins superstar lost his unbeaten tag last time out to Flemenstar, but fitter, stronger and over a better trip, he should be cherry ripe for three miles around Leopardstown under Davy Russell.



Ladbroke Hurdle – Claret Cloak 1pt EW
King George VI Chase – Grands Crus 1pt Win & Finians Rainbow 1pt Win
Welsh National – Teaforthree 3pts EW
Lexus Chase – Sir Des Champs 2pt Win


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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Friday at Cheltenham's December Meeting

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We’re back at Cheltenham tomorrow, and a solid card on Friday, featuring a nice batch of novices and handicaps, hopefully there should be some value around. Let’s have a delve in – so to speak.


The first race is a novices chase that Nicky Henderson in particularly has a good record in, winning it last year with Solix amongst others. Barry Geraghty this time rides Broadback Bob, and although impressive last time out, he didn’t beat a lot, and I expect him to be very short on reputation alone. Forgotten Gold grinded out a win at Aintree over three miles over a next time out winner, but looks a grinder, and dropping back in trip isn’t guaranteed to be suited. I don’t like the look of Rebel Rebellion and Super Duty and although under the burden of top weight, HILDISVINI looks to be a chance. He was very impressive when winning over two and a half miles at Huntingdon, twice beating the Emma Lavelle trained Well Regarded, the second win under a penalty. His jumping was very, very good, the stable are in good nick, and the son of Milan looks to have a very eye-catching profile for a race such as this.


The conditional jockey’s handicap looks an open affair but there are two who I will personally be backing and those are PLEIN POUVOIR and LEXICON LAD. The first, runs for the in form Venetia Williams stable, a week after slogging out a three mile handicap chase at Wincanton. He looked very tired towards the latter stages, and back down to two miles five should suit. Talented apprentice Harry Challoner takes the ride instead of Aiden Coleman, and takes off 3lb. Lexicon Lad is down to a mark of 118 for his reappearance at Aintree, and is at the same mark when he gave his best performance to date, over course and distance here in January. He finished a very game second to Alan King’s Bless the Wings that day, and the form of that race has worked out very well. His form over this trip is U3132 – but he has found defeat to the likes of Havingotascoobydo, Bless The Wings, Trafalgar Road and Pasco, and he looks well handicapped.


Another handicap hurdle, this time over the extended two miles, and another tough contest, however it is very hard to see past the DAN BREEN for the red hot Pipe stable, whose stable seem to come good just before a big Cheltenham meeting, and this week has been no different. He looks to capitalise on his relatively low hurdles mark, for a horse placed in a Celebration Chase and Greatwood Gold Cup. He had a smart spin around Ascot last month, running behind next time out winner Petit Robin Talented claimer Frank Haynes, who had a winner for the yard on Thursday.


Midnight Chase is a Cheltenham specialist, winning here for the last three seasons, but under the burden of top weight against classier rivals that appear well handicapped could bring him to be unstuck. The two I like are ground and market dependant, those being PLANET OF SOUND and QUARTZ DE THAIX. I tipped up Quartz de Thaix last time out and he looks a very smart staying chaser. Although up 17lb, he is very progressive and looks to have further scope to improve. He has won at the track before and again for the red hot Venetia. Planet of Sound who looked in needing the run when behind Silviniaco Conti at Wetherby but he could run a big race trickling down the handicap if the ground doesn’t get too desperate, and may be a price in the process. Market vibes will likely suggest just how good a run he will put in.


I don’t really have an overly opinion of the cross country race, but the two stand outs are obvious ones with the Mullins and Bolger yards thriving in these races. If you can get around even money coupled on them, take it, but don’t get your beak too wet, but it would be a bit of an understatement to say UNCLE JUNIOR and ARABELLA BOY look the two. Go figure.


I tipped up CROSS KENNON last time out, taking 28/1 the night before, and seeing it get gubbed when backed into 16/1 was rather painful, but he gives us an opportunity to make amends. Up 5lb but still a very game and genuine horse, and I can see him running well. Slightly shorter trip should suit, and he is guaranteed to be there or thereabouts at a track where he has a good record. MONETARY FUND was third that day and would be another to grab some place money, if all goes to plan that is.

Another I backed last time out was VILLAGE VIC, and that effort was just too bad to be true. He has a lot of potential, and although a very trappy contest, he would be a hesitant selection. Again, nothing overboard, save yourself for Saturday folks, it’s a marathon, not a sprint!


12.15 Cheltenham – Hildisvini
12.45 Cheltenham – Plein Pouvoir & Lexicon Lad
1.20 Cheltenham – Dan Breen (Nap)
1.55 Cheltenham – Quartz De Thaix & Planet Of Sound
2.30 Cheltenham – Uncle Junior & Arabella Boy
3.05 Cheltenham – Cross Kennon & Monetary Fund
3.40 Cheltenham – Village Vic


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

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