Doncaster's St Leger Meeting - Thursday: Day Two

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
The second day at Doncaster, and the meeting is gradually moving through the gears in terms of class and the quality steps up remarkably as we gather pace towards Camelot’s bid for the elusive Triple Crown for the Coolmore family on Saturday.

A good mix on Thursday, and the opener is a typical race that I did alright with at York’s meeting, a trappy minefield of a handicap, twenty runners, but the one going the right way is ANNECDOTE for Jonathan Portman and JP Fahy. The filly finished second in a maiden behind Maureen, beaten two lengths, before dispatching another Hughes/Hannon runner in the form of the 82 rated Botanica snugly last time out at Salisbury. The filly has been given a mark of 79, which seems to be very lenient, and she looks the one who has turned out to be on the handicappers good side.

The Sceptre Stakes is a fillies group three, that looks a very open affair, with several fillies in the field that have already acquired that elusive black type, and will have them seeking out a certain Galileo et al, to be covered in glory, pardon the pun. Gamilati won twice for Godolphin in Meydan, but looked laboured when behind Regal Realm and Inetrobil at Goodwood. Sunday Times, Miss Work of Art and Bonnie Brae are all 100+ rated fillies, but it usually pays to follow the unexposed filly on the up. That profile certainly fits SENTARIL who was an unlucky second behind Ishvana at Royal Ascot, before flopping at York last time out, but she did have the likes of Producer, Aljamaaheer and Lethal Force, Bannock and Sovereign Debt in behind her that day, and rated 105, she sets a solid standard. Perfect Step fits the criteria for Roger Varian, behind Sovereign Debt two starts ago, but on that form line has work to do with Sentaril.

The £300,000 sales race is an absolute maze. If you back the winner in this, you really should treat yourself to a nice cup of tea, and an extra-large slice of cake. Flyman goes for the Fahey and Hanagan team and has apparently been working well at home. As has The Gold Cheongsam for Jeremy Noseda, that has been punted into a disgustingly short priced favourite. Ballydoyle won this last year with Reply, and have Group placed Parliament Square for them, but giving weight all round and the not so boy wonder Joseph on board, he isn’t for me. The one I like is HOTOTO who won the big sales races at York, and has form with another I fancy tomorrow Hoyam. He was an impressive winner at York, and has good form back to Royal Ascot. His trainer pinpoints these big sales races, and rated 102, he is rated only second behind Parliament Square, he looks a decent bit of value and has gone relatively unnoticed.

I have been sweet on ESTIMATE for a while now, backing her at Ascot and York, and although she tasted defeat last time out, she was by no way disgraced. She got tired in the final strides, but as a three year old filly she will be improving at a rate of knots, and beaten three lengths by Wild Coco that day, she now gets 12lb from the four year old through weight for age, although Sir Henry Cecil’s filly is entitled to come on for the run as well. A flat track like Doncaster should eek more improvement out of Her Majesty, and once again this year it will be hat’s off for the Queen!

I ear-marked a couple when seeing the preliminary declarations for this, and Cape of Hope was one, but I had no idea he would be so short in the market, and at the prices, the exciting SPACE SHIP looks much better value for John Gosden and William Buick, who have an incredible record at the track, and in particular this season. A son of Galileo, out of a Grade 1 winning mare in America, he has a Racing Post Trophy entry, and should build on a solid debut when fourth at Sandown.

Prodigality was going to be a warm favourite before being declared a late non-runner, which presumably gives him a thumbs up for The Portland handicap later on in the week. That opens the door for ELUSIVE FLAME for Dominic Elsworth and William Buick, who is a progressive three year old filly, who although is at a career high mark of 88, is progressing nicely in those famous J Smith silks. She won a nursery at this meeting last year, and has been going the right way, starting the season on a mark of 85, holding her form well, racing exclusively over seven furlongs, but the manner of her run last time out indicated she may want to drop down to six. Sohraab and Goldream are respected for shrewd connections.

The final handicap looks another tricky affair but the manner in which TRADE STORM won against a strong field at York indicates he is a very smart colt indeed. The four year old son of Trade Fair came with a good turn of foot, and if he reproduces that on Town Moor he should be hard to beat, despite a 6lb rise, he has won at the track before in a conditions race as a three year old over seven furlongs.

1.15 Doncaster – Annecdote
1.50 Doncaster – Sentaril
2.20 Doncaster – Hototo
2.55 Doncaster – Estimate (Nap)
3.30 Doncaster – Space Ship
4.05 Doncaster – Elusive Flame
4.35 Doncaster – Trade Storm


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

BMW Italian Open Tipping

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
Just doing a brief bit of research on the BMW Italia Open with no PGA Tour, means The European Tour is solely flying the flag for our weekly punting disappointments in the world of JJMSports.

I peeled off a few stats based on what I believe to be crucial around the course, and then added in previous course form, current tour form as well as how good a price the player was. I won’t bore you with the grim details, but it’s all in a ridiculously messy Excel spreadsheet, all would make no sense if someone read this without any previous knowledge, alien to Joe Publc.

Anyhoo, the two that were standouts were Nicolas Colsaerts and Thorbjorn Olesen, but both are far too short for my liking, around the 10/1 and 18/1 mark. Will Colsaerts win this tournament one in every eleven? Unlikely, the European Tour is a minefield, where anyone can come out the pack and nick it. Similarly with Olesen, I’m not convinced he wins three/four if he plays this every week for a year.

The one’s at the shorter end of the spectrum are JOOST LUITEN and THOMAS AIKEN, both of whom come out well in terms of overall consistency, but both are liable to throw in the odd low round, and that could set them up. Joost Luiten has been knocking on the door for a while now, and I just have a feeling that if he starts strong, he could go deep. He is still only 26, and still learning. He missed the cut last week, but before that finished T21 in the USPGA Championship, and a solid T27 in the Omega Masters, throwing his chance away with a final round 73. The extra few days rest could have made him that bit fresher.

Thomas Aiken has shown glimpses, most notably a seventh in The Open, where he should have finished better, but for flagging in the final round with a 72. Still, a respectable effort, in a strong field. He missed the cut at The USPGA and The Omega Masters. He came back to form last week, recovering from an opening round average 71, with a solid 66 in Round 4, finishing T26 on -4. If he carries on in a similar manner he could be coming good, and will have his confidence restored by the way he finished off his round. He looks a decent price.

The remaining three are more hopefuls, and are outsiders are very speculative prices, but in the words of my hero Derrick Trotter, he who dares; win. Actually, no need to be greedy, they don’t have to win; a place will do me beautifully.

Firstly, ALASTAIR FORSYTH is a HUGE price at top price of 200/1 given his stats and performance on tour. He doesn’t hit the ball far, but his iron play is really something else, and although getting on a bit, he ranks 29th on tour in terms of driving accuracy and 65th on tour in greens in regulation. He has previous course form, and is something of a dark horse, who finished T15 at The Scottish Open in Aberdeen. If it clicks, he could be good value for a place.

IGNACIO GARRIDO fits a similar mould, and was T11 in the same Scottish Open. He missed the cut at The KLM Open, but he has had two Top 10’s this season, and is a ma-husive price. The final trio of the longshot kids is GREGORY HAVRET, and is someone I have backed a fair few times without any such luck thus far. Another with strong stats for his driving accuracy and greens in regulation, providing he can make peace with his putter he has a chance of shooting low. In the money 13 out of 21 events so far this term, but only one Top 10. If you look through his records, he usually comes good towards the back end of the season, hopefully so this week.

J Luiten 45/1 (Coral) – 1pt Ew
T Aiken 55/1 (Sportingbet) –0.75pts EW
G Havret 150/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Coral) – 0.5pts EW
I Garrido 200/1 (SkyBet) – 0.25pts EW
A Forsyth 200/1 (SkyBet, Betfred, Blue Square) – 0.5pts EW


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Doncaster's St Leger Meeting - Wednesday; Day One

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
DONCASTER; not the flashiest, not the most fashionable, but a bloody good racecourse, full of charming and colourful locals, and a real sense of racing in Yorkshire, fresh on the back of the overwhelmingly successful meeting at York last month. One of the fairest tracks on the country, a good flat track, as opposed to the difficult undulating conditions of notorious tracks in the south. There are a few runners that I have in my notebook and are on the shortlist to follow for the season, noted down at various times., here are some of those that were seen as eye-catchers throughout the season thus far, and have solid claims on the first day of the meeting.

HIPSTER was a very impressive winner when shedding the maiden tag at Epsom at the third attempt, under a typical no nonsense Jim Crowley ride. That was followed up by a good second in a Kempton nursery behind subsequent Group Three winner Glass Office, throwing his chance away when hanging badly and still showing signs of greenness. Gelded since, he finished third under Seb Sanders in a good looking Newmarket nursery stepping up to seven furlongs for the first time. On an unchanged mark of 81, and Jim Crowley back on board, he is going the right way.

UPWARD SPIRAL is a very well-bred Teofilo filly who was quickly snapped up by Qatar Racing after an impressive maiden win at Sandown on Brigadier Gerard Day. Despite the form of that race not looking great, she ran a blinder at Royal Ascot to finish fourth in the Queen Mary Stakes, meeting trouble in running and staying on well towards the end. Stepping up to six furlongs for the first time should suit, and she sets the standard on form.

SOLE POWER runs in The Scarborough Stakes, and he is the class horse in the field, and providing he runs to form, he should be much, much better than his rivals, top rated, and he has the ground to suit as well. J P Murtagh a significant booking and a massive plus next to him.

BEATEN UP wouldn’t be an original choice, and I wouldn’t be betting on this, but the manner of his three victories last year suggested he would have a potential group one in him. He disappointed in Meydan and Epsom in The Coronation Stakes, running too free in both, refusing to settle. Gelded since, and coming back off a break, he returns to where he was an impressive course and distance winner last year and should be winning a race of this nature on his road to recovery.

BALTY BOYS is a horse who was etched in last season, and could be worth another try in a market where there is little value in the front trio. Strictly Silver was unlucky last time out at Chester, and as such has been punted into a very warm favourite. Born to Surprise, Magic City and Discression are all plenty short enough for horses with inconsistent profiles, and as such we could take a chance on the Cape Cross colt. In his best effort this season he ran Aljamaaheer to three lengths in a listed contest at Newmarket off a mark of 110. Now down to a mark of 97, he looks on a decent mark. That man Murtagh is in the saddle and back on a decent effort over course and distance three weeks ago, it is only a matter of time before he can capitalise on his falling mark.

HAAJES won the five furlongs sprint finale last year, and bouncing back over two solid back to back runs, he looks the one to beat. Second to Whozthecat at Thirsk, he won a Hamilton seller and goes unpenalised, despite the form already being franked, and he looks to have been his long term target.

2.00 Hipster
2.30 Upward Spiral (Nb)
3.05 Sole Power (Nap)
4.10 Beaten Up
4.45 Balty Boys
5.15 Haajes


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

The Problem with Camelot

“The problem with Camelot”


As a three year old colt, the nation doesn’t really latch onto horses that haven’t been around for such a relative short of time. Frankel has had the public support due to his longevity. The superstar has had four runs as a two year old, five runs as a three year old and four runs thus far in his fourth and seemingly final year. The public have gradually got to know, and hear more about this superstar. Camelot however has had merely five runs, two of which in Ireland, and there is still a great deal of unknown about the son of Montjeu.

He came to The Racing Post Trophy with a big reputation having been ear-marked as Coolmore’s ‘one’ for the year, and won impressively. Similar tales with the 2000 Guineas, a trip on pedigree would not suit, and then as expected, hacked up in a really poor renewal of The Derby.

He goes to The St Leger currently a 1/3-2/5 chance, but the Yorkshire and national public don’t have the same affection and fondness that Nijinsky had when winning the triple crown in 1970, he was seen as an absolute superstar, and as such, I can’t see people backing him and leaving their tickets un-cashed to be ‘a part of history’, unlike Frankel and Black Caviar followers at Royal Ascot for example. They had a real aura about them, and a fan base that has followed suit similarly.

The tale is much different to Frankel, as it is two completely different ends of the spectrum. Frankel is trained by Sir Henry Cecil, a trainer LOVED universally throughout the nation, one of the greatest trainers of his generation, a man who has battled and defeated (almost) cancer. He went from being a multiple champion trainer to having just 12 (twelve) winners in 2006, the man was on the brink of retirement. The added story to it is the naming, named after the late Bobby Frankel, who trained for Prince Khalid Abdullah in America; there is real warmth about the tale. Whereas Camelot is owned by a business focused breeding operation, which will be shipped off to stud as soon as the season is finished, he will have to bring home the bacon. Frankel was left in training on the basis that Sir Henry Cecil wanted to see him continue to run, as did owner Prince Khalid.

It has to be said as well, flat racing is currently in the shadow of its jumps counterpart, we are fortunate to enjoy the best of both codes, and although both are thriving, jump racing is seen as the stronger. National Hunt racing is lucky to have had such stars as superstar Gold Cup winners in Denman and Kauto Star, and current stars such as Sprinter Sacre, Big Bucks, Quevega, and Hurricane Fly et al. All of the before mentioned horses have had the much needed benefit of longevity, the wider public know who they are. Big Bucks and Quevega have won for four straight years at The Cheltenham Festival, which is our equivalent of The Breeders Cup. Cheltenham is still the real big punting event for die-hards such as myself, and there is also the Grand National, which is more a spectacle, and one for the casual wider public to have their once a year interest. All aspects are really catered for.

So, unfortunately, everything is against Camelot, in terms of the story, apart from his sire and father, Montjeu passing away earlier this year. Frankel is the real superstar in the eyes of the public, and even then, jump racing is still seen as the pinnacle. Kauto Star and Denman have cemented their status as legendary in the 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and most memorably the 2011 Gold Cups.

A hard act to follow.

Camelot runs in The Ladbrokes St Leger – Doncaster 3.45 Saturday

The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Follow me on Twitter – @JJMSports

Handicap Delving at Ascot - Saturday

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
I will have my attentions completely fixated on Lancashire and more specifically Haydock Park on Saturday afternoon (blink and you'll miss ORTENSIA), despite some good rugby, an ashamedly poor version of a game called cricket that I know and love being ripped off and downsized, as well as good golf, domestic football and racing at Leopardstown, the best value for us shrewd punters comes from Ascot. Value, being the operative word, The Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap with nearly £100,000 to the winner. That feature is over a mile and a half, but there are similarly hot contests over five, seven and eight furlongs respectively.

The fillies’ handicap is over seven furlongs, and although the prize money doesn’t compare to the illustrious amounts of the three latter races, it is in no way less competitive.


A seventeen runner field where Speedi Mouse holds favouritism on the back of two wins, three in four starts, and has built up a good relationship with valuable claimer Nicole Nordblad. Back to back wins at Newmarket, and a strong summer means she is 19lb higher since her form picked up in June. She will no doubt give a solid account, but place claims for me. The Hannon team generally under perform in Ascot handicaps, and have a poor record outside of two year old races. which would all but rule out Dare to Dream. A trainer who does thrive in this format is William Haggas who has Diala, who after flopping in the 1000 Guineas may suit dropping back to seven furlongs. However after personally backing her and being extremely under par last time out, in lieu with other runs this season, it may just be a case of her not training on. The stereotypically filly who wins this type of race towards the back end of the season is unexposed, lightly raced and from respected connections. Catherine Laboure is interesting, but would have to win from 2lb out of the handicap, something I am not a fan of. The Giving Tree was much better when coming back down to a mile last time out, and has a similarly unexposed profile. The stand out filly in the line-up looks to be CHIGUN for Sir Henry Cecil and Eddie Ahern. She bolted up in her maiden at the fourth attempt, winning by ten lengths and then followed that up by trying to make all in a hot Goodwood handicap over nine furlongs, tiring late on. Dropped 1lb, and back down to a mile should suit her ideally, and the stable are in cracking nick.


The ‘Fly London Southend Airport Handicap’ is one of these Ascot speciality seven furlong handicaps with a bumper field and an even bumper prize fund. You see these trip specialists turn out time and again, but rare do you see repeat winners; such is the handicapping system here in the UK. As such, although you could see the likes of Imperial Guest, Field of Dreams and Primaeval running well, you can’t realistically see them winning, Mick Channon has a relatively poor record around Ascot, which would put a line through Arnold Lane and Atlantic Sport. Memory Cloth needs it soft, and the likes of Mabait, Xilerator, King of Jazz and Don’t Call Me seem to have lost their way. Smarty Socks won the race last year, and has shown glimpses of form, he is a dark horse if the money comes for the infamous David O’ Meara yard. The shortlist would involve a few that seem relatively well in, and are often bridesmaids rather than the bride, so although they seem a bit of a monkey, they are well handicapped. The first of these is BANNOCK who ran a close second in a listed race at York before third in a good handicap at Chester last week. His record reads 23-3-6-3, but Michael J Murphy claiming seven has an unbelievable record for Mark Johnston, three wins and a second for four previous booked rides. Similarly GLOBAL VILLAGE for Brian Ellison. He won a course and distance handicap in May, and has finished fourth in two subsequent runs, never far away over the same trip. He is likely to place more than win however. The top of the shortlist is EXCELLENT GUEST for Shane Kelly and George Margarson, who excels in this sphere, as seen with Imperial Guest’s latest win. The five year old’s record over course and distance reads 312000, but he looks to have been set up for this, running his last two starts over a mile, he should be sharp and fit enough for this and a further autumn campaign.


The feature, the Ladbrokes Mobile Handicap has nineteen runners, and a wealth of prize money for the three year olds, and it has the old adage of a ‘spot the group horse in the handicap’. As mentioned before, William Haggas is the man to watch and he saddles Sun Central, who went wider than Dawn French’s waistline last time out at Ascot, but still won well. Considering how well he won, and how well he was backed, he must be assumingly well in. Before that run he was behind Gospel Choir, when they were on marks of 82 and 84. Now up 10lb and 12lb respectively, they are open to more progressive types and both look plenty well handicapped. Haggas also has Stencive, but he looks the second string. Mark Johnston has three in the form of Modernism, Fennell Bay and Scatter Dice, but none have the looks of an unexposed lurker. Jeremy Noseda’s yard are going well so it would be no surprise to see Harvard N’ Yale run well, after once being lauded as a future Kentucky Derby hopeful. The two of the most squinted looks are the Sir Robert Ogden pair of MARTIN CHUZZLEWHIT and CASTILO DEL DIABLO for Sir Michael Stoute and David Simcock respectively. The first, whom I tipped up and fancied at York, was seriously hampered a furlong out when in front, and ran a blinder. He is still unexposed, and Robert Winston is booked, who has a good record this season for Stoute (two wins and a second from five rides), he remains unexposed. As does Castilo Del Diablo, who has gradually improved in maiden company, winning arguably one of the strongest maidens of the season over a mile and a half at Newmarket. The colt was still green and hung towards the end on only his third ever run. Exceptionally well bred, and the form of the subsequent runners has worked out as 1141, he also remains open to the world and then some.

1-2-3's

3.10 Ascot – Chigun – The Giving Tree – Speedi Mouse
3.45 Ascot – Excellent Guest – Bannock – Global Village
4.15 Ascot – Martin Chuzzlewit – Castilo Del Diablo – Sun Central

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner


Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Friday Racing at Haydock Park 7/8/12

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
WILLBEME stayed on well on his first run for over a year when a game third in a competitive Thirsk handicap, and since then has hacked up at Doncaster and Haydock, both over six furlongs. The recent course and distance winner is thriving, and although up 15lb for his three efforts this year, he still looks very well handicapped. The form of all three runs has worked out well, he is still relatively unexposed.

PRUSSIAN was well fancied in a hot handicap at the weekend at Sandown, appreciating dropping back down to ten furlongs, and was unlucky to not catch Labarinto, rallying late on under Martin Lane. Franny Norton takes the ride on the filly, who is now 6lb ahead of the handicapper turning out here, and the partnership has thrived this season, a 17% strike rate, and a £50.29 profit to £1 stake on all their rides this season.

The same tandem also team up with MORDERNISM, who absolutely hacked up at Goodwood two weeks ago over a mile and a half, and the Monsun colt indicated he would stay further. Eased down under the same jockey, he still won by four lengths, and although 8lb higher, the manner of the victory, and the form of the stable suggests more is to come for connections.

NASRI is a horse I have fancied for a while since getting his act together and finishing fourth at York, and I tipped up and backed him ante post for The Stewards Cup, where he was unfortunately balloted out. He was down the field at Goodwood for the consolation race, before showing a much greater display when stepped up to seven furlongs at Newbury. He lost by a head that day to Emilio Largo, who was well backed on the day for Sir Henry Cecil. Up 2lb, his mark of 88 is still a fair one, and seven furlongs may turn out to be his trip.

3.35 Haydock – Willbeme
4.45 Haydock – Prussian
5.15 Haydock – Nasri
5.45 Haydock – Modernism

The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports

Saturday at Beverley - September 1st 2012

Powered & Produced by:
BetVictor.com
Open a new account and bet £25 to get a free £25 bet.
Watching back the run that WILLOWING had last time out at Doncaster, I’m very surprised he dons the white cap and is the supposed second string for Godolphin in the opener, a seven furlong maiden. He ran a great third that day, just tiring in the latter stages, and the drop down to the extended seven should suit this filly down to the ground. Phillip Makin is on board, and although there are threats in stablemate Naalatt and Zero Game for Michael Bell and Jamie Spencer, Willowing gets the nod.

HI THERE runs on an unadjusted mark for a game third last time out at Newmarket, when badly hampered in running, and on a mark of 72, looks fair value for Richard Fahey and Freddie Tylicki in the seven and a half furlong handicap. Although hampered, the gelding still ran on well towards the finish, and creeping in at the bottom of the weights, he makes plenty of appeal in a fairly weak renewal.
I can not get over the price of SHEIKHZAYEDROAD in the 3.15 ten furlong handicap, and although up 2lb for finishing third last time out at Newmarket, he didn’t seem to handle the course, and hung badly towards the latter part of the race. He didn’t do much in front and with Jamie Spencer on board, he will have the perfect jockey to give him his patented last to first ride. At the prices, he looks severely overpriced, and with the Johnston horse being accordingly short, the favourite is worth taking on.

ALIVE AND KICKING has two big eggs next to his name, but both runs can be excused for the James Bethell four year old. Bumped on his penultimate start and then he finished tenth last time out over six furlong s at Doncaster. The gelding was in front however two furlongs out, and was eased down after tiring late on. Dropping back to five furlongs seems a logical step, and he is respected with Jamie Spencer booked to do the steering.

If you excuse FREE ZONE’s run last time out on bottomless ground in Ireland, he is a very consistent and versatile animal for Bryan Smart and Tom Eaves, and before that run, ran a solid third in group three company with Nunthorpe winner Spirit Quartz in behind him. He is a course and distance winner, and has his best form on good ground, for the life of me he looks overpriced in a field full of exposed veterans. The three year old is only having his seventh run of the season, and will have place claims at the very least.

The 4.50 is a terrible looking maiden, with some horses that are likely to never win a race, bar a well punted claimer around Dunstall Park. AVON BREEZE sticks out like a sore thumb as an unexposed filly that ran behind some good looking horses of Roger Varian and Sir Michael Stoute on debut at Doncaster and is well entitled to come on for that run and shed her maiden tag here.

I wouldn’t suggest the last as a serious betting proposition, but HARARE goes for the Gemma and Karen Tutty team, who do well in these amateur lady riders’ races. Harare is a course and distance winner, who stayed on well last time out at Redcar at a big price, and lowered another 1lb in the handicap, the now eleven year old can have a swansong for the all family affair.

2.05 Beverley – Willowing
2.40 Beverley – Hi There (Nap)
3.15 Beverley – Sheikhzayedroad
3.45 Beverley – Alive and Kicking
4.15 Beverley – Free Zone
4.50 Beverley – Avon Breeze
5.25 Beverley – Harare


The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner

Follow me on Twitter - @JJMSports