Beautiful racing this weekend, at two of the most picturesque courses in the country, with York and Sandown being two of seven meetings on Saturday. York has it’s usually abundance of strong handicaps, and there is more of a diverse feel at Sandown, which has a nice mix of listed, maiden and handicaps to keep us on our toes, with one eye already on Royal Ascot.
Starting firstly with Sandown, we have another Lucky 15 for our loyal listeners, and the first selection comes in the form of SAM SHARP. The six year old son of Johannesburg has caught the eye on his two starts this season, finishing second at Sandown on the softest of soft, and then Newbury on good-to-firm, so is clearly versatile and goes on anything, so weather forecast not needed! Princes of Sorrento and Stage Attraction have been in good heart so far this year, and look the main rivals.
In the listed sprint race, Pearl Secret is sure to go off the hot favourite, the unbeaten Pearl Bloodstock three year old has shown lots of class in his three winning runs, but on soft to heavy ground, BALLESTEROS surely has a much stronger chance, with the current going of soft to heavy in places. He hacked up in the mud at Chester, after a good handicap win before over course and distance here at Sandown. He hated the good to firm ground at Beverley and we can put a line through that run, which should just make the price even bigger!
DELFT looks a near handicap good thing as they come for Jeremy Noseda, Ryan Moore and Cheveley Park Stud in the 4.30, a seven furlong handicap. The Dutch Art filly showed signs of still being green, yet still managed to win well at Lingfield on her first run for 164 days. She is only up 3lb for that, and given it was her first run and still being green, she should come on for that in spades.
Ryan Moore and Cheveley Park can have a quick fire double in the race after with the John Gosden filly MOONGLOW, who is a beautifully bred daughter of Nayef, a sire who is having a particularly fruitful season. She is a half sister to multiple winners including Medicean and Moon Goddess, and has some positive entries. She ran a good fourth on her debut, being very green in the process, but Gosden’s horses are running incredibly well, having 13 winners in June alone at a strike rate of 25%.
2.50 Sandown – Sam Sharp
3.25 Sandown – Ballesteros
4.30 Sandown – Delft (Nap)
5.00 Sandown – Moonglow
The first race looks an absolute minefield, with a twenty runner lady amateur riders handicap being an absolute puzzle. In races like these however it usually pays to look for those who have the best course form, and in particular course and distance form. That would narrow it down to Odin’s Raven, Antigua Sunrise, Veiled Applause, Hanovarian Baron, Demolition and one that I particular like being CRACKENTORP. The Tim Easterby seven year old looked back to something of his best when finishing third over course and distance here three weeks ago after 169 days off and only losing by a neck and a short head. He is up 2lb for that run, staying on strongly towards the end, and the form has already worked out well. Considering his only two wins have come here, he carries maximum respect for a shrewd yard.
The six furlong handicap carries a huge pot, with a £51,572 first prize, and has brought out some very progressive horses. Priceless Jewel looks on a very strong upward curve for the in form Roger Charlton stable, as does Top Cop and Bartolomeu for Andrew Balding and Marco Botti respectively, who both have strong form in good handicaps this year. That being said, it could be worth taking a chance on SHOLAAN who has blinkers on for the first time, and the William Haggas stable coming into form just at the right time. They have had 5 winners and a further 12 places (including 9 seconds) from 33 runners this month. His maiden form has been franked with the second, third, fourth and sixth have all come out next time out, and further handicap successes in behind as well. The Invincible Spirit gelding was only beaten 3 ½ lengths on handicap debut at Epsom, and looked like he would suit a flatter track, such as York, and she should be a tasty price at around the 14/1 mark.
DANCE AND DANCE looks a different class to his rivals in the Listed Ganton Stakes over a mile, where he steps down from Group company, in what looks like a much easier task for the six year old. The Ed Vaughan trained son of Royal Applause chased home Side Glance at Epsom, and showed that he was back to his best under a good ride from Ryan Moore. Luke Morris takes the rider after riding him at home on the gallops and reportedly worked like a treat, he looks banker material.
ALFRED HUTCHINSON was put up as my nap two weeks ago at York, when he was absolutely smashed up and won comfortably, eventually going off the 9/2 favourite in a sixteen runner handicap, he was clearly fancied and duly obliged for connections. The Geoffrey Oldroyd is back running over course and distance with a 5lb rise, but that doesn’t look likely to stop him further winning. He is yet to finish out of the first three, and is still very unexposed with only five runs to his name throughout his career. He may go off short, but looks very much the good thing he appears on paper.
2.05 York – Crackentorp
3.10 York – Sholaan (Ew)
3.45 York – Dance and Dance (Nap)
4.15 York – Alfred Hutchinson (Nb)
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner - @JJMSports
Friday, 15 June 2012
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
The US Open – The Toughest Four Days In Tournament Golf On The Planet
The 112th United States Open golf championship will be held over the Lake Course at the Olympic Club in San Francisco California. The second major of the year held annually in June is simply the toughest test a golfer will face all year. There is no hiding place in a US Open, as each player is subjected to harshest course set up known possible. You only have to scan through the list of previous winners over the last few years which include McIlroy, McDowell, Glover, Woods, Cabrera, Ogilvy, Campbell, Goosen and Furyk to notice that any type of golfer as long as your game is at its peak that week can take the title. You could argue that while it is the hardest, it is also the fairest major of the year as it puts all golfers on a level playing field.
In previous years the United States Golf Association has set up each course to try and keep the winning score at around level par for the week. Exemptions do occur however as with last year’s tournament played over a rained soaked course where scoring was anything but difficult as Rory McIlroy fired a four round total of 16 under par to vanish the ghosts of the previous year. This year’s course by comparison to previous years is also on the short side as measuring only 7,170 yards it is not the normal 7,500 plus that players are accustomed to, and with the weather for the week expected to be hot, it should be perfect for golf.
The course can broadly be defined as being narrow, with tree lined fairways with small well bunkered greens. It is difficult enough however after last year, which will have left some USGA officials wanting to make amends for one of the highest scores in the Championship’s history. Vindication will be on the cards and I expect the course to be set up to the extreme. Fairways narrower than a supermodel’s waistline and rough thicker than Cornish custard. When you throw in the fact the greens will be like lightening, it should be the ultimate test for a professional.
Firstly therefore a premium has to be put on driving accuracy off the tee. Once you stray off the straight and narrow, a golfer will be punished immensely. Gone are the days of muscling it out of the rough and on to the green in a US Open, sorry boys. With the equipment changes in recent years, it is virtually impossible to get spin on the ball without being in the fairway.
Secondly as each green is small and well guarded it will also be a must to make sure a golfer hits a high percentage of greens in regulations. Putting pressure on yourself to be scrambling every other hole will eventually lead to succumbing to the surroundings, you can only run so good for so long. A good scrambling game is obviously helpful, but giving you two putts for par will relieve the pressure of missing greens, and as it gears towards Sunday, the pressure, and handling of such, will have more of an effect than the actual shots. Not to mention actually putting yourself in a position to actually make birdies.
Based on the above criteria I have drawn up a list of eight golfers that’s game currently fits the requirements. I have also included their best current industry price:
Steve Stricker – 45/1 (Hills, Coral, Betfred, Bet365, Paddy Power)
Tiger Woods – 7/1 (Hills, Coral, Betfred, Stan James, Paddy Power)
Justin Rose – 33/1 (Betfred, Coral, Paddy Power)
Luke Donald – 14/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes)
Jason Dufner – 30/1 (Paddy Power)
Peter Hanson – 75/1 (Paddy Power)
John Senden – 150/1 (Blue Square, Coral, Hills)
Mark Wilson – 200/1 (Betfred, Coral, Hills)
All the above have consistently been putting the ball in fairway off the tee with Mark Wilson and Luke Donald featuring in the top ten in statistics on the US PGA Tour this year. In regards to the greens in regulation statistics, Jason Dufner, Justin Rose, Tiger Woods and John Senden find themselves in the top ten.
For all the names on the list it may well be worth opting for Steve Stricker as the number one pick, who’s temperament and steady style for the game fits perfect for a US Open. It would no doubt cap the career of a once journeyman who turned his game around to become in recent years one of the most consistent performers on tour. If this fairytale where to come true it would be the second time at a major this year the winner has shown his true emotions for the world to see, as like Bubba Watson at The Masters before him, Steve Stricker is one for the waterworks, and if were to start, I'm sure there would be many in the gallery following suit.
Paddy Power are paying ¼ 1-2-3-4-5-6-7, so I would advise to back the selections where they are top price to back there; Stricker, Woods, Rose, Dufner, Hanson.
Magic Marve and JJMSports
Happy Punting!
@JJMSports
Wednesday Tipping at Haydock and Beverley
A little glance in the directions of Wednesday’s cards, and there’s plenty of action going on at Hamilton, Yarmouth, Kempton, Fairyhouse, as well as the two cards we’re focusing on at Haydock and Beverley. It is at times like this you just put the quality over quantity argument to the fine folk of the BHA.
Anyway, moving on, we are focusing firstly on Beverley, the usual suspects are out in full force, with Danny Tudhope, Tony Hamilton, David Allan and Graham Gibbons all with good rides, but the man who rides here better than anyone is Robert Winston. He had a winner and two seconds at the last meeting, and is extremely good nick, riding primarily for Mel Brittain, as well as picking up spares from the likes of Brian Meehan and Charlie Hills, has led to him having 24 winners so far this season, including a 25% strike rate around Beverley.
He has four rides on the card, and all look to have decent chances. The first is COTTAM DONNY who has been knocking on the door on his three starts this season, finishing third first time out, followed by two seconds. Both second came over course and distance and on that bare form alone, he should finally get his head in front here, with everything seemingly in his favour.
Similarly TOBRATA can step up from his good third first time out at Southwell in an apprentice handicap in the spring. He is incredibly still a maiden after 21 starts, but has four seconds and six thirds to his name, and given the Brittain/Winston form, if he was to act on previously untested soft ground, he is a serious threat.
His third chance comes in the form of BADA BING for Malton based Scott Dixon, who will be looking to progress from all weather form over the winter. The filly was well beaten in three maidens, but stepped up to score a creditable third in handicap company for the first time. Rated 51, she is potentially very unexposed, and is having her debut on turf.
His fourth ride and the final quarter of our Lucky 15 is GLADSOME for the John Ward camp, who runs in the 5.00; a seven furlong maiden. She sets a good standard based on a fourth and third at Redcar and Thirsk in maidens over 7/8 furlongs. Based on that bare form alone, the filly has a reasonable chance in fairly poor race.
3.30 Beverley – Cottam Donny (Nap)
4.00 Beverley – Tobrata
4.30 Beverley – Bada Bing
5.00 Beverley – Gladsome
They say there are few things guaranteed in life, death and taxes being the obvious ones - actually throw in Frankel to that too. However there is another one, that is a well known but little said fable; being Sir Mark Prescott’s horses come good in June. He starts slow and erupts like a Joey Barton temper tantrum, just with more style and with military precision. Clinical won a good handicap at Epsom, and Athenian won and finished second within the space of ten days, it is vintage Sir Mark Prescott. He has a beautifully bred son of Montjeu running at Haydock GASSIN GOLF, who showed a great deal of potential last year, He has been gelded over the winter, is switched to turf, and has cheekpieces on for the first time. He could turn out to be a very good staying handicapper, and could go off a very big price in the 2.20.
It is said that when there is a bit of juice in the ground, we really start to see the best out of John Gosden’s horses, and that very hypothesis has been toasted at the weekend at Doncaster. Winners a plenty, lead stable jockey William Buick to have trebles on Friday’s and Saturday’s card there. Considering connections have won the Ladbrokes St Leger the last two years running, I think the dynamic duos are warming to South Yorkshire. They have two runners Wednesday at Haydock, the first being CHAT, a well bred Dynaformer filly for George Strawbridge. Closely related to his star filly Rainbow View, she has an exciting pedigree, and with another yard hitting form at the peak time, she has to be respected. Their other runner is REGAL AURA for Cheveley Park Stud. A half sister to the stable’s Robemaker, she is also a son of Jim Bolger’s champion 2yo Teofilo. She travelled powerfully in a hot looking Salisbury maiden, and should step up and make amends here.
GOOD BOY JACKSON rounds off the equine quarter, and is a tentative selection, but has been somewhat unlucky in recent starts. Well fancied at Donny on his return, he never travelled, and similarly didn’t like the heavy going at Epsom next time out. He got his preferred ground at Hamilton (good to soft) and finished second by a neck, getting there with every stride. He has his preferred ground at Haydock, and should be suited by the step up in trip.
2.20 Haydock – Gassin Golf
2.50 Haydock – Chat
3.20 Haydock – Regal Aura (Nap)
4.50 Haydock – Good Boy Jackson
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
@JJMSports
Anyway, moving on, we are focusing firstly on Beverley, the usual suspects are out in full force, with Danny Tudhope, Tony Hamilton, David Allan and Graham Gibbons all with good rides, but the man who rides here better than anyone is Robert Winston. He had a winner and two seconds at the last meeting, and is extremely good nick, riding primarily for Mel Brittain, as well as picking up spares from the likes of Brian Meehan and Charlie Hills, has led to him having 24 winners so far this season, including a 25% strike rate around Beverley.
He has four rides on the card, and all look to have decent chances. The first is COTTAM DONNY who has been knocking on the door on his three starts this season, finishing third first time out, followed by two seconds. Both second came over course and distance and on that bare form alone, he should finally get his head in front here, with everything seemingly in his favour.
Similarly TOBRATA can step up from his good third first time out at Southwell in an apprentice handicap in the spring. He is incredibly still a maiden after 21 starts, but has four seconds and six thirds to his name, and given the Brittain/Winston form, if he was to act on previously untested soft ground, he is a serious threat.
His third chance comes in the form of BADA BING for Malton based Scott Dixon, who will be looking to progress from all weather form over the winter. The filly was well beaten in three maidens, but stepped up to score a creditable third in handicap company for the first time. Rated 51, she is potentially very unexposed, and is having her debut on turf.
His fourth ride and the final quarter of our Lucky 15 is GLADSOME for the John Ward camp, who runs in the 5.00; a seven furlong maiden. She sets a good standard based on a fourth and third at Redcar and Thirsk in maidens over 7/8 furlongs. Based on that bare form alone, the filly has a reasonable chance in fairly poor race.
3.30 Beverley – Cottam Donny (Nap)
4.00 Beverley – Tobrata
4.30 Beverley – Bada Bing
5.00 Beverley – Gladsome
They say there are few things guaranteed in life, death and taxes being the obvious ones - actually throw in Frankel to that too. However there is another one, that is a well known but little said fable; being Sir Mark Prescott’s horses come good in June. He starts slow and erupts like a Joey Barton temper tantrum, just with more style and with military precision. Clinical won a good handicap at Epsom, and Athenian won and finished second within the space of ten days, it is vintage Sir Mark Prescott. He has a beautifully bred son of Montjeu running at Haydock GASSIN GOLF, who showed a great deal of potential last year, He has been gelded over the winter, is switched to turf, and has cheekpieces on for the first time. He could turn out to be a very good staying handicapper, and could go off a very big price in the 2.20.
It is said that when there is a bit of juice in the ground, we really start to see the best out of John Gosden’s horses, and that very hypothesis has been toasted at the weekend at Doncaster. Winners a plenty, lead stable jockey William Buick to have trebles on Friday’s and Saturday’s card there. Considering connections have won the Ladbrokes St Leger the last two years running, I think the dynamic duos are warming to South Yorkshire. They have two runners Wednesday at Haydock, the first being CHAT, a well bred Dynaformer filly for George Strawbridge. Closely related to his star filly Rainbow View, she has an exciting pedigree, and with another yard hitting form at the peak time, she has to be respected. Their other runner is REGAL AURA for Cheveley Park Stud. A half sister to the stable’s Robemaker, she is also a son of Jim Bolger’s champion 2yo Teofilo. She travelled powerfully in a hot looking Salisbury maiden, and should step up and make amends here.
GOOD BOY JACKSON rounds off the equine quarter, and is a tentative selection, but has been somewhat unlucky in recent starts. Well fancied at Donny on his return, he never travelled, and similarly didn’t like the heavy going at Epsom next time out. He got his preferred ground at Hamilton (good to soft) and finished second by a neck, getting there with every stride. He has his preferred ground at Haydock, and should be suited by the step up in trip.
2.20 Haydock – Gassin Golf
2.50 Haydock – Chat
3.20 Haydock – Regal Aura (Nap)
4.50 Haydock – Good Boy Jackson
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
@JJMSports
Monday, 11 June 2012
Monday Tipping - 11th June
The Yorkshireman has been keeping a tentative watchful eye over the flat season, and as things are bubbling towards Royal Ascot nicely with the wondermare Black Caviar strutting into Newmarket, it looks like June can get even better after Camelot’s history making Derby win at Epsom.
Racing Monday at Windsor, Pontefract and Folkestone on the flat, as well as over the sticks at Roscommon and Newton Abbot, but we shall leave the summer jumping alone, for now at least.
Starting at Windsor, I think there is one bet and one bet only to be had there in the form of TANGO SKY for the in form duo of Ralph Becket and Jim Crowley, ever tough in a finish, especially down the straight of Windsor. The three year old makes a belated start to the season, delved into handicaps after four solid runs in maiden company, finally getting his head in front at Lingfield in November. The form of all of his races has worked out well, being behind some smart sorts, including pattern performers Silverheels, Lord of The Stars. Gelded over the winter, the stable are flying, and off a reasonable mark of 76, he looks open to further potential.
Similarly, I could find only one horse worth putting my precious pennies on at Folkestone, in SIR GLANTON. The gelding had strong outings in his first few runs, including a narrow second to Eureka, a listed winner for Richard Hannon. As such, his handicap rating hit 90, and led to struggling against better handicapped opposition. Down to 82, the Amanda Perrett yard is in good nick, and Hayley Turner rides, after steering Ghostwing to victory last week at Goodwood. Fresh from a run on the all weather, he has strong claims.
Donald McCain nearly landed a monster gamble a couple of weeks ago with EMRANI running at his local track Haydock, and he had to begrudgingly have to settle for second. However, considering that was the five year olds first run for nearly a year, great heart can be taken from it, and he is expected to come on tremendously for the run. He only lost by a head that day, and although a 5lb rise, a bit of forecasted rain could further aid this gelded son of Rahy. Graham Lee is booked to ride, which in my book is another strong positive.
Another eyecatcher running last week was CORSETRY for Sir Henry Cecil and Tom Queally, a filly making her debut into handicap company over 10 furlongs at Nottingham last week. She was very game when headed two furlongs out, fighting back, before being passed by both joint favourites, finishing a creditable third. The further two horses to come out of the race have both run well, and further improvement can be expected. She has solid maiden form behind her, and it would be no surprise to see her improve at a steady rate over the summer.
4.45 Folkestone – Sir Glanton
7.20 Pontefract - Emrani
7.40 Windsor – Tango Sky (Nap)
8.20 Pontefract – Corsetry
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
@JJMSports
Racing Monday at Windsor, Pontefract and Folkestone on the flat, as well as over the sticks at Roscommon and Newton Abbot, but we shall leave the summer jumping alone, for now at least.
Starting at Windsor, I think there is one bet and one bet only to be had there in the form of TANGO SKY for the in form duo of Ralph Becket and Jim Crowley, ever tough in a finish, especially down the straight of Windsor. The three year old makes a belated start to the season, delved into handicaps after four solid runs in maiden company, finally getting his head in front at Lingfield in November. The form of all of his races has worked out well, being behind some smart sorts, including pattern performers Silverheels, Lord of The Stars. Gelded over the winter, the stable are flying, and off a reasonable mark of 76, he looks open to further potential.
Similarly, I could find only one horse worth putting my precious pennies on at Folkestone, in SIR GLANTON. The gelding had strong outings in his first few runs, including a narrow second to Eureka, a listed winner for Richard Hannon. As such, his handicap rating hit 90, and led to struggling against better handicapped opposition. Down to 82, the Amanda Perrett yard is in good nick, and Hayley Turner rides, after steering Ghostwing to victory last week at Goodwood. Fresh from a run on the all weather, he has strong claims.
Donald McCain nearly landed a monster gamble a couple of weeks ago with EMRANI running at his local track Haydock, and he had to begrudgingly have to settle for second. However, considering that was the five year olds first run for nearly a year, great heart can be taken from it, and he is expected to come on tremendously for the run. He only lost by a head that day, and although a 5lb rise, a bit of forecasted rain could further aid this gelded son of Rahy. Graham Lee is booked to ride, which in my book is another strong positive.
Another eyecatcher running last week was CORSETRY for Sir Henry Cecil and Tom Queally, a filly making her debut into handicap company over 10 furlongs at Nottingham last week. She was very game when headed two furlongs out, fighting back, before being passed by both joint favourites, finishing a creditable third. The further two horses to come out of the race have both run well, and further improvement can be expected. She has solid maiden form behind her, and it would be no surprise to see her improve at a steady rate over the summer.
4.45 Folkestone – Sir Glanton
7.20 Pontefract - Emrani
7.40 Windsor – Tango Sky (Nap)
8.20 Pontefract – Corsetry
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
@JJMSports
Friday, 1 June 2012
Epsom Dash - Derby Day at Epsom
The Epsom Dash is another highlight of the Investec Derby Festival, with some of the best sprinters around going hell for leather down the straight five furlongs. Good, firm ground is ensured, so we could see a new track record broke, with some of the runners in the race already clocking some very quick times this season.
The race was won last year by Captain Dunne for Ted Easterby, The seven year old usually needs the run, and came on well for that on ground that wouldn’t have suited at Newbury. The third and sixth have come out and won since, and being dropped 2lb brings him to the mark he won the race on last year. He looks the pick of his string, ahead of Confessional who is officially 6lb well in official ratings, after a strong run behind Bated Breath at Haydock last time. The two look the pick of the northern plots, with horses also being sent down from Kevin Ryan in the form of York Glory and Courageous, but York Glory looked seriously rusty last time, and Courageous is running out of the handicap. He has Dickies Lad too, and interesting that Tom Queally is booked to ride. Unless he is burning up the gallops at home however, I can’t see him being a serious player. The north doesn’t look to have any stronger chances elsewhere with Long Awaited for David Barron winning last time out but the four year old looks inexperienced, and his best form is on softer ground. Vocational for Mark Johnston is 10lb out of the handicap, and although Silvestre De Sousa rides Epsom well, he has too much on his plate. Richard Fahey has Jamesway and Arctic Feeling, but neither looks appealing on current handicap ratings. Similarly the David Nicholls trained Fitz Flyer, who is 3lb lower on official ratings, as is the Hughie Morrison trained Sohraab, and looked lacklustre on his reappearance, similarly Living it Large for Ed De Giles.
We can scratch a few more off the shortlist by immediately taking out Diamond Charlie, and Stone of Folca look to be seriously outclassed in a race of this level, and can’t see them even placing in any particular scenario, Similarly with the Irish raider Oor Jock and he has Colm O’ Donoghue booked to steer. He is officially due to go up 2lb for a solid effort on his return at Dundalk, and has been running well in better company, but could be handicapped to the hilt. Taajub looks something of a dark horse, and should the money come, be interesting. Campaigned over the winter, he looked to suit the change to turf when running a good second over course and distance last time out.
The remaining players all look to have strong claims, but are plenty short enough in the market. Bear Behind, Catfish, Judge N’ Jury and Desert Law are all within the top ten in the market, and there are plenty reasons why. Bear Behind for Tom Dascombe. Beating Hamish McGonagall before losing in the stewards’ room, and then a narrow defeat to Ballesteros. That form has been franked and then some and he looks to have the progressive type of profile in a race like this. The Brian Meehan stable are flying at the moment, so Carfish has to be respected, similarly with Desert Law for Andrew Balding. Both should have come on for their initial runs, and have good form in the past on better ground. Judge N’ Jury looks progressive for Ron Harris, but seems to run better on flatter, less testing tracks.
Bear Behind 2pts EW @ 8/1 BOG
Captain Dunne 1pt EW @ 10/1 BOG
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
The race was won last year by Captain Dunne for Ted Easterby, The seven year old usually needs the run, and came on well for that on ground that wouldn’t have suited at Newbury. The third and sixth have come out and won since, and being dropped 2lb brings him to the mark he won the race on last year. He looks the pick of his string, ahead of Confessional who is officially 6lb well in official ratings, after a strong run behind Bated Breath at Haydock last time. The two look the pick of the northern plots, with horses also being sent down from Kevin Ryan in the form of York Glory and Courageous, but York Glory looked seriously rusty last time, and Courageous is running out of the handicap. He has Dickies Lad too, and interesting that Tom Queally is booked to ride. Unless he is burning up the gallops at home however, I can’t see him being a serious player. The north doesn’t look to have any stronger chances elsewhere with Long Awaited for David Barron winning last time out but the four year old looks inexperienced, and his best form is on softer ground. Vocational for Mark Johnston is 10lb out of the handicap, and although Silvestre De Sousa rides Epsom well, he has too much on his plate. Richard Fahey has Jamesway and Arctic Feeling, but neither looks appealing on current handicap ratings. Similarly the David Nicholls trained Fitz Flyer, who is 3lb lower on official ratings, as is the Hughie Morrison trained Sohraab, and looked lacklustre on his reappearance, similarly Living it Large for Ed De Giles.
We can scratch a few more off the shortlist by immediately taking out Diamond Charlie, and Stone of Folca look to be seriously outclassed in a race of this level, and can’t see them even placing in any particular scenario, Similarly with the Irish raider Oor Jock and he has Colm O’ Donoghue booked to steer. He is officially due to go up 2lb for a solid effort on his return at Dundalk, and has been running well in better company, but could be handicapped to the hilt. Taajub looks something of a dark horse, and should the money come, be interesting. Campaigned over the winter, he looked to suit the change to turf when running a good second over course and distance last time out.
The remaining players all look to have strong claims, but are plenty short enough in the market. Bear Behind, Catfish, Judge N’ Jury and Desert Law are all within the top ten in the market, and there are plenty reasons why. Bear Behind for Tom Dascombe. Beating Hamish McGonagall before losing in the stewards’ room, and then a narrow defeat to Ballesteros. That form has been franked and then some and he looks to have the progressive type of profile in a race like this. The Brian Meehan stable are flying at the moment, so Carfish has to be respected, similarly with Desert Law for Andrew Balding. Both should have come on for their initial runs, and have good form in the past on better ground. Judge N’ Jury looks progressive for Ron Harris, but seems to run better on flatter, less testing tracks.
Bear Behind 2pts EW @ 8/1 BOG
Captain Dunne 1pt EW @ 10/1 BOG
The Yorkshireman – Jack Milner
Thursday, 17 May 2012
2012 Champions League Final Preview
It is Chelsea (7/2 in 90 mins), who exercised their Champions League demons in finally going through against Barcelona after going out to them at the semi final stage infamously in 2008, to a last minute Andres Iniesta winner, as well as in 2009, which ended in Didier Drogba memorably shouting expletives at the camera and branding the officials “cheats” and a “disgrace”, both of which leading to a five game ban, after being refused four seemingly stone wall penalties. It was all change this year however, coming from an improbable position in almost miraculous fashion. Chelsea won the first leg 1-0 at home, through a sole Didier Drogba goal, in a master class in defending at lead at The Bridge. That being said, at The Nou Camp, Barcelona were 1-0 up when captain John Terry was sent off for violent conduct, and it looked game over. However, the most resilient of fight backs came in the form of a Ramires equaliser, before an Iniesta effort from close range to get the tie 2-2 on aggregate. The inevitable seemed fate. But fate seemed to have other plans in mind, a stout and resilient performance from Chelsea, even saw Lionel Messi miss a penalty, as well as spurning other chances, and despite Barcelona having 77% possession across both games, it was the £50 million disappointment Fernando Torres with a 93rd minute goal that sent Gary Neville into raptures.
Bayern Munich (8/11 in 90 mins) had an easier route, routing Basle and Marseille, but like Chelsea left it late in the semis in similar dramatic fashion. Winning the first leg 2-1, coming from a 1-0 deficit, and going to the Santiago Bernabeau being the underdogs, even more so when 2-0 down in double quick time thanks to the boot of Cristiano Ronaldo. However an Arjen Robben (9/2 First Goalscorer) penalty. That followed a gritty defensive display before dramatically going through on penalties, to give an unlikely of finals without Real Madrid or Barcelona, and will play host at their home ground, The Allianz Arena.
So what of the final, with fate seemingly on both sides?
Chelsea have a decimated squad thanks to accumulated suspensions, and as such as the outsiders (7/2 standout top price), which seems quite a big price, given the trials and tribulations just to get here, coming back against Napoli and Barca, lady luck seems to be smiling on them. Ivanovic, Terry, Ramires and Mereiles are all out suspended, and defenders David Luiz and Gary Cahill are fighting battles to be fit for the big game. They have enough depth and quality in their midfield where they can pose a real danger however, with boss Roberto Di Matteo expected to start with a 4-3-3 formation, playing with all three strikers, Torres (Stand out top price 8/1 First Goalscorer), Drogba (Stand out top price 15/2 First Goalscorer) and Sturridge (10/1 First Goalscorer).
Likely Team: Cech, Boswinga, Cahill, Luiz, Cole, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Sturridge, Torres, Drogba 4-3-3.
Bayern can’t be underestimated, and have a wealth of talent at their abundance, and a team that has been nurtured over the last few years, including some of Germany’s finest young talent. Mario Gomez (10/11 to score anytime) is the team’s talisman up front, and generally leads the line well, being the focal point of most attacks. It is their midfield where the real danger comes from however, with two of the most feared wingers in world football, with Frank Ribery (6/4 to score anytime) and former Chelsea player Arjen Robben (6/5 to score anytime) that hold the true dangers. Especially when you consider that Lahm and Boateng will be bombing down both flanks, offering overlaps on each side. Chelsea’s wide men will need to have had their weetabix that morning. All four wide men are excellent on the ball, dribbling and crossing, and have shown how adept they are in beating a man and cutting in from either side, getting a shot or cross in at goal.
Likely Team: Neuer, Lahm, Boateng, Alaba, Pranjic, Muller, Schweinsteiger, Robben, Kroos, Ribery, Gomez
Chelsea look too big at 7/2 for the win, given how their top men usually perform in the big games. Didier Drogba at 15/2 looks massive, especially given his performances in the Champions League semi finals, and FA Cup final; He is a man for the big occasion. Chelsea have shown tenacity to get through when behind against Barcelona and Napoli, and will be more than a handful for the Bayern defenders to deal with, although it would be no surprise to see their defence concede early, such is their inexperience at the back.
Advised:
Chelsea to win in 90 minutes - 7/2
Didier Drogba First Goalscorer – 15/2
Bayern Munich Half Time/Chelsea Full Time Double Result – 28/1
Jack Milner - @JJMSports
Bayern Munich (8/11 in 90 mins) had an easier route, routing Basle and Marseille, but like Chelsea left it late in the semis in similar dramatic fashion. Winning the first leg 2-1, coming from a 1-0 deficit, and going to the Santiago Bernabeau being the underdogs, even more so when 2-0 down in double quick time thanks to the boot of Cristiano Ronaldo. However an Arjen Robben (9/2 First Goalscorer) penalty. That followed a gritty defensive display before dramatically going through on penalties, to give an unlikely of finals without Real Madrid or Barcelona, and will play host at their home ground, The Allianz Arena.
So what of the final, with fate seemingly on both sides?
Chelsea have a decimated squad thanks to accumulated suspensions, and as such as the outsiders (7/2 standout top price), which seems quite a big price, given the trials and tribulations just to get here, coming back against Napoli and Barca, lady luck seems to be smiling on them. Ivanovic, Terry, Ramires and Mereiles are all out suspended, and defenders David Luiz and Gary Cahill are fighting battles to be fit for the big game. They have enough depth and quality in their midfield where they can pose a real danger however, with boss Roberto Di Matteo expected to start with a 4-3-3 formation, playing with all three strikers, Torres (Stand out top price 8/1 First Goalscorer), Drogba (Stand out top price 15/2 First Goalscorer) and Sturridge (10/1 First Goalscorer).
Likely Team: Cech, Boswinga, Cahill, Luiz, Cole, Lampard, Essien, Mata, Sturridge, Torres, Drogba 4-3-3.
Bayern can’t be underestimated, and have a wealth of talent at their abundance, and a team that has been nurtured over the last few years, including some of Germany’s finest young talent. Mario Gomez (10/11 to score anytime) is the team’s talisman up front, and generally leads the line well, being the focal point of most attacks. It is their midfield where the real danger comes from however, with two of the most feared wingers in world football, with Frank Ribery (6/4 to score anytime) and former Chelsea player Arjen Robben (6/5 to score anytime) that hold the true dangers. Especially when you consider that Lahm and Boateng will be bombing down both flanks, offering overlaps on each side. Chelsea’s wide men will need to have had their weetabix that morning. All four wide men are excellent on the ball, dribbling and crossing, and have shown how adept they are in beating a man and cutting in from either side, getting a shot or cross in at goal.
Likely Team: Neuer, Lahm, Boateng, Alaba, Pranjic, Muller, Schweinsteiger, Robben, Kroos, Ribery, Gomez
Chelsea look too big at 7/2 for the win, given how their top men usually perform in the big games. Didier Drogba at 15/2 looks massive, especially given his performances in the Champions League semi finals, and FA Cup final; He is a man for the big occasion. Chelsea have shown tenacity to get through when behind against Barcelona and Napoli, and will be more than a handful for the Bayern defenders to deal with, although it would be no surprise to see their defence concede early, such is their inexperience at the back.
Advised:
Chelsea to win in 90 minutes - 7/2
Didier Drogba First Goalscorer – 15/2
Bayern Munich Half Time/Chelsea Full Time Double Result – 28/1
Jack Milner - @JJMSports
Monday, 14 May 2012
Musidora Stakes Day at York
We are on The Knavesmire this week as York hosts the Dante meeting on Wednesday and Thursday, with trials for The Oaks and The Derby in the form of the Musidora Stakes (Oaks) on Wednesday and The Dante Stakes (Derby) on Thursday. They also run The Duke of York Stakes, for some of the top sprinters in the country, as well as a host of the usual competitive handicaps, maidens and novice races.
The first race of the opening day has been used as a stepping stone for group horses in recent years, last year’s winner Pekan Star setting countless tongues wagging before his form eventually tailed off towards the back end of the season. Another potential group class horse is FLAG OFFICER for Saeed Bin Surour and Frankie Dettori, connections who have a tremendous record at this meeting. Flag Officer is an unexposed four year old gelding, with only five races to his name, but has potentially the strongest form on offer. He finished second here over course and distance to the progressive Sea Moon, winner of The Great Voltigeur and second in the Breeders Cup Turf, only beaten just under two lengths. Flag Officer hasn’t finished outside the first three in five runs and looks to a very progressive horse.
The Musidora Stakes looks a two horse affair with last year’s winning connections John Gosden and William Buick responsible for The Fugue, who comes here after a good fourth in the 1000 Guineas, and Twirl for Aidan O' Brien and son Joseph. The Fugue looks an exciting horse, but the nod goes to Twirl, whom I have already backed for The Oaks. She was breath-taking when winning a maiden by around eight lengths last year, and showed enough promise when second in a Group Three at The Curragh over a mile. She is a full sister to Misty For Me, who is a Group One winner over 10 furlongs, so the trip shouldn't be a worry, and I expect her to come on massively for the run, where she had runaway Guineas winner Homecoming Queen behind her.
The Duke of York Stakes has generally been a lucky race for me in previous years, with this article napping the winner last year in Delegator. Mayson has been massively progressive for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan, winning two pattern races in strong fashion, but a horse who should have ended up a Group One winner last year is HOOF IT, for Mick Easterby. The booking of Ryan Moore looks significant and he was incredibly unlucky when third in the Betfred Sprint Cup, losing by a neck and a nose to Bated Breath and Dream Ahead. He runs well fresh, winning over course and distance at this meeting last year after a 200 day absence. He looks rock solid and can win this before going on to bigger and better things.
1.30 York - Flag Officer
2.30 York - Twirl (Nap)
3.00 York - Hoof It
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner / @JJMSports
The first race of the opening day has been used as a stepping stone for group horses in recent years, last year’s winner Pekan Star setting countless tongues wagging before his form eventually tailed off towards the back end of the season. Another potential group class horse is FLAG OFFICER for Saeed Bin Surour and Frankie Dettori, connections who have a tremendous record at this meeting. Flag Officer is an unexposed four year old gelding, with only five races to his name, but has potentially the strongest form on offer. He finished second here over course and distance to the progressive Sea Moon, winner of The Great Voltigeur and second in the Breeders Cup Turf, only beaten just under two lengths. Flag Officer hasn’t finished outside the first three in five runs and looks to a very progressive horse.
The Musidora Stakes looks a two horse affair with last year’s winning connections John Gosden and William Buick responsible for The Fugue, who comes here after a good fourth in the 1000 Guineas, and Twirl for Aidan O' Brien and son Joseph. The Fugue looks an exciting horse, but the nod goes to Twirl, whom I have already backed for The Oaks. She was breath-taking when winning a maiden by around eight lengths last year, and showed enough promise when second in a Group Three at The Curragh over a mile. She is a full sister to Misty For Me, who is a Group One winner over 10 furlongs, so the trip shouldn't be a worry, and I expect her to come on massively for the run, where she had runaway Guineas winner Homecoming Queen behind her.
The Duke of York Stakes has generally been a lucky race for me in previous years, with this article napping the winner last year in Delegator. Mayson has been massively progressive for Richard Fahey and Paul Hanagan, winning two pattern races in strong fashion, but a horse who should have ended up a Group One winner last year is HOOF IT, for Mick Easterby. The booking of Ryan Moore looks significant and he was incredibly unlucky when third in the Betfred Sprint Cup, losing by a neck and a nose to Bated Breath and Dream Ahead. He runs well fresh, winning over course and distance at this meeting last year after a 200 day absence. He looks rock solid and can win this before going on to bigger and better things.
1.30 York - Flag Officer
2.30 York - Twirl (Nap)
3.00 York - Hoof It
The Yorkshireman - Jack Milner / @JJMSports
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