Cheltenham Festival 2018; Friday Day 4

Cheltenham Festival 2018

My best bet of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival runs in the opener on Gold Cup day with Apple’s Shakira (1.30) a confident selection to maintain her unbeaten record in the Triumph Hurdle under Barry Geraghty. The well-bred filly is a full sister to Gordon Elliott’s multiple G1 winner Apple’s Jade and couldn’t have been any more impressive in her two starts for trainer Nicky Henderson. Her stamina-laden pedigree should see her thrive on the new course and she should make it 3 from 3 at Prestbury Park.

The drying ground should aid the chances of Ivanovich Gorbatov (2.10) in the County Hurdle, with last year’s beaten favourite potentially well-treated from a 3lb lower mark. His chances are aided further by the 3lb claim of conditional jockey JJ Slevin and he has obvious claims at a place that seemingly brings the best out of him.

He is one of 5 Irish raiders at the head of the first half-dozen in the weights in a race that the Irish have dominated in recent renewals. Stablemate Tigris River should appreciate better ground, whilst the Mullins trio of Bleu Et Rouge, Lagostovegas and Sandsend should all go well for the Closutton handler.

I’ve been waiting for Divin Bere to resurface since disappointed earlier in the campaign and I expect him to go well in a first-time tongue tie for trainer Paul Nicholls. The selection was narrowly beaten in the Fred Winter at last year’s festival and I expect him to thrive over the likely cavalry charge over the minimum trip.

Nicky Henderson should land the opener and is expected to complete a G1 double with challengers Santini and Chef Des Obeaux (2.50) vying for favouritism in the Albert Bartlett, with marginal preference for the latter Noel Fehily. The selection has impressed on soft ground at Kempton and Haydock, bolting-up in bottomless ground at the latter, and looks to have the desired stamina for such an attritional test.

Might Bite (3.30) can complete an emphatic treble in the Cheltenham Gold Cup under Nico de Boinville. The talented gelding isn’t shy of a quirk, as seen when holding on from stablemate Whisper in the RSA Chase at the festival 12 months ago, but is getting more and more professional with every run and looked better than ever in the King George. He warrants maximum respect and with BetVictor’s 4 places cannot be out of the first four home.

The Foxhunter is something of a guess-up, and is ultimately a race where is pays to side with the more ‘professional’ jockeys amongst the amateur ranks. Nina Carberry has won two of the last three renewals aboard On the Fringe and both he, and last year’s winner Pacha du Polder, appear vulnerable to younger legs.

The pair of Wonderful Charm (4.10) and Foxrock remain relatively unexposed for a pair of 10yos and looks over-priced at 8/1 under the excellent pair of Sam Waley-Cohen and Katie Walsh respectively. The former was arguably unlucky not to get the job 12 months ago, staying on well to finish second in the closing stages, and can go one better under the galloping dentist.

Much like Wednesday, the final three races of the meeting are horrendously difficult, and the Martin Pipe is no exception with a field of unexposed novices and Willie Mullins saddling three and Gordon Elliott saddling a further five.

I think the home faithful can gain a deserved consolation however with both Melrose Boy and Diese des Bieffes (4.50) making plenty of appeal and marginal preference for the latter under James Bowen. The selection was a beaten favourite when unlucky in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton and should remain ahead of the handicapper despite a 2lb rise at the weights.

Plenty have been campaigned around the Grand Annual and I like the pair of Vaniteux (5.30) and Theinval for Messrs Pipe and Henderson respectively. The former is well-handicapped on his Ayr success last season, whilst the latter remains the trainer’s last hope of winning the race named after his old man. Theinval ran a blinder to finish third 12 months ago and must go close from an unrevised mark.

1.30 Apple’s Shakira (Nap)

2.10 Ivanovich Gorbatov/Divin Bere

2.50 Chef des Obeaux/Santini

3.30 Might Bite (NB)

4.10 Wonderful Charm/Foxrock

4.50 Diese des Bieffes/Melrose Boy

5.30 Vaniteux/Theinval

For all the latest odds head to www.BetVictor.com

Cheltenham Festival 2018; Thursday Day 3

Cheltenham Festival 2018

The JLT Novices’ Chase is the opener on Day 3 and I, like plenty others, will have burnt fingers with Willoughby Court’s defection from the two and a half miles contest. The selection looked brilliant when making all to beat Yanworth at Newbury earlier in the campaign and ran well when the Alan King-trained gelding reversed the form at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.

The absence of both novice chasers leaves Invitation Only as the 7/2 market leader however, he is perhaps priced on reputation rather than his ability over the larger obstacles and I’m willing to take a chance on Finian’s Oscar (1.30) bouncing back to his spectacular best under Robbie Power. He was last seen being pulled-up in the Cleeve Hurdle but has had a wind-op subsequently and returns to his preferred trip over two and a half miles.

The Pertemps is a notoriously tricky handicap and one dominated by the Irish in the last two years, with Davy Russell riding first Mall Dini then Presenting Percy in back-to-back successes for trainer Pat Fahy. The latter is now as short as 6/1 with BetVictor for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup and I think Louis’ Vac Pouch (2.10) has similarly potential for trainer Philip Hobbs.

The selection hasn’t been sighted since bolting-up under Richard Johnson at Aintree in November. The 13lb rise doesn’t look too bad and he should make the frame at the very least for a yard that won with the well-fancied Fingal Bay back in 2014.

Paul Townend is expected to replace Ruby Walsh in the saddle aboard Un de Sceaux and rode him to victory earlier in the season in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot. He currently trades around the even money mark and is a deserved favourite however, I’m keen to take a chance on my old friend Cloudy Dream (2.50) at a double figure price. The selection failed to stay three miles behind Native River in the Denman Chase at Newbury but should improve for the drop back in trip and is sure to go well under regular partner Brian Hughes.

It could be a great afternoon for the north with Sam Spinner vying for favouritism in the Stayers’ Hurdle with the apple of Jedd O’Keefe’s eye bidding to land a first festival success for him and jockey Joe Colliver. The drying ground doesn’t look to suit this out-and-out stayer and I’m instead going to throw a couple of darts on Supasundae (3.30) and L’Ami Serge with marginal preference for the former under Robbie Power.

The selection brings festival form with him having won the Coral Cup 12 months ago and bettered than when second to Yanworth in the G1 Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree. Both Apple’s Jade and Faugheen have let the form down of this season’s runs at Leopardstown but he is the top-rated in the race and warrants each way support at 7/1 with BetVictor.

Having backed Movewiththetimes (4.10) in the Novices’ Handicap Chase I feel implored to follow him in again for the Festival Plate with Barry Geraghty riding for Paul Nicholls. The selection has form tied in with exciting novice chasers Coo Star Sivola and Kalondra. It is a fiendishly tricky handicap with numerous plots and no surprise to see King's Socks punted for a yard that have won three of the last seven renewals.

Willie Mullins bids to cement his stranglehold on the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle with Laurina odds-to to follow in the hooveprints of stablemates Limini and Let’s Dance. She is far from a working man’s price however, and preference lies instead with Maria’s Benefit (4.50) under regular partner Ciaran Gethings. The selection has done little wrong this term, winning her last three, including listed hurdles at Taunton and Doncaster. She is rated 3lb higher than the odds-on jolly and deserves to take her chance for the in-form yard of Stuart Edmunds.

Irish raiders Mall Dini and Squouateur have been well-backed in the opening salvos for the excellent pair of Patrick Mullins and Jamie Codd, who are amateurs in name only. Sugar Baron must go well for the in-form yard of Nicky Henderson however, preference lies instead with the pair of Actinpieces (5.30) and Tom George’s Wild West Wind (5.30) at the head of the weights.

The latter refused the final fence when legless in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and is sure to appreciate the drop back in trip under the trainer’s son Noel. He remains well-treated from an unrevised mark, whilst Actinpieces appears likewise the same with the handicapper raising her just 6lb for a comfortable success last time out at Ludlow. That win has been franked subsequently and with plenty of firms paying 5 places she warrants each-way support at 16/1.

Selections

1.30 Finian’s Oscar

2.10 Louis’ Vac Pouch

2.50 Cloudy Dream

3.30 Supasundae/L’Ami Serge

4.10 Movewiththetimes

4.50 Maria’s Benefit

5.30 Actinpieces/Wild West Wind

For all the latest odds head to www.BetVictor.com

Cheltenham Festival 2018; Wednesday Day 2

Cheltenham Festival 2018

SAMCO (1.30) looks banker material in the opener on Day 2 and can not be opposed for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy in the newly-renamed Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. The selection has been lauded as the second coming by racing fans, much to the annoyance of owner Michael O’Leary, however there is good reason for such praise with three flawless victories over hurdles this term and odds-on to complete the four-timer this afternoon.

His main danger appears Next Destination, likewise a winner of all three starts this term, for a Willie Mullins yard that kicked off with a treble yesterday. He has looked sharp since being sent over timber but lacks the turn of foot demonstrated by Samcro in last month’s Deloitte success at Leopardstown, and expect the Closutton-inmate to improve further next term when sent over fences.

The Irish have the two market principles for the opener and likewise in the RSA where Presenting Percy and Monalee both bringing festival form to the table in the RSA Chase, and the latter expected to thrive on the drying ground.

Monalee (2.10) looked every inch a chaser when plying his trade over timber last term, finishing a gallant runner-up to Penhill in the 2017 Albert Bartlett and, despite one hiccup when falling over Christmas, has been foot perfect in his two chase successes for trainer Henry de Bromhead. I expect him to have too much class for last season’s Pertemps Winner Presenting Percy with Black Corton likely to come up a little short in producing a fairytale winner for racing’s new golden girl Bryony Frost.

Le Breuil was my long-time hope for the Coral Cup but the form of the Ben Pauling yard is worrying and the soft ground should suit Ruth Jefferson’s Mount Mews (2.50) who reverts back over timber after an interrupted campaign over fences. The selection was crying out for a step up in trip when well-backed for a pair of handicap hurdles at the start of the season and the handicapper has given him a chance from a revised mark of 142. As You Were is 2lb lower but, is unexposed and could likewise be overpriced at 33/1 and BetVictor paying 5 places.

Altior (3.30) is the star attraction on Ladies Day and should better the Willie Mullins pair of Min and Douvan in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Nicky Henderson’s gelding is the best horse in training on official ratings and showed outstanding resilience to make a winning return after an absence of over 300 days when beating Politologue in the Game Spirt Chase last month at Newbury. Altior, a winner at the last two festivals, is another likely to love the ground and is a confident selection to once again bring the Master of Seven Barrows into the Cheltenham winners’ enclosure.

The three races to complete the card aren’t big punting heats personally, but the ground has undeniably gone against Cause of Causes in the Cross-Country. I’ve heard plenty of whispers in the press room for The Last Samuri (4.10) who hasn’t been seen since finishing fourth in a strong renewal of the Cotswold Chase here on Trials Day and he looks the class act in the race for Kim Bailey and David Bass.

Eragan de Chanay (4.50) bolted-up on heavy ground at Sandown and sneaks into the Fred Winter under a penalty, which therefore puts him plenty ahead of the handicapper. He produced a telling turn of foot in the mud, producing a good time to boot, and must go close for Gary and Jamie Moore.

The bumper looks a minefield but it appears telling that Barry Geraghty has opted to partner Rhinestone (5.30) over Nick Gifford’s Didtheyleaveuoutto in the bumper. Joseph O’Brien’s well-bred son of Montjeu wasn’t disgraced when chasing home Blackbow last month at Leopardstown and with the benefit of experience should improve from that effort.

I do have a soft spot for JP’s other runner, with Didtheyleaveuoutto leaving a favourable impression when bolting-up in a listed bumper at Ascot and looks a terrific long-term prospect for connections.

Selections

1.30 Samcro

2.10 Monalee

2.50  Mount Mews        

3.30 Altior (Nap)

4.10 The Last Samuri

4.50 Eragan de Chenay

5.30 Rhinestone/Didtheyleaveuoutto

For all the latest odds head to www.BetVictor.com

Cheltenham Festival 2018; Tuesday, Day 1

Cheltenham Festival 2018

The festival curtain-raiser can often throw-up something of a surprise winner and, with the exception of the Mullins hat-trick of Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan, it is a race that has historically been favourable to the layers.

Getabrd runs for those oh so familiar connections in Tuesday’s opener and I expect him to drift markedly from his current position as the 7/4 market leader with BetVictor. The gelding has impressed in both hurdles successes this term however, there is little form to back up his current price and he definitely strikes me as a style over substance’.

His price collapsed after his  success last time out in the G2 Moscow Flyer Novices’ Hurdle, with trainer Willie Mullins keen to keep him over the minimum trip. Nevertheless, connections were originally aiming over further at the start of the campaign and that, combined with his lack of form on heavy ground, makes him difficult to fancy at the prices.

BetVictor are paying four places on the race and I’m keen to back a couple at bigger prices. Kalashnikov produced a dour performance to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury but was previously put in his place by Summerville Boy (1.30) in the G1 Tolworth Hurdle and is somehow double the price at 8/1 and four places with BetVictor.

He tanked through the heavy ground at Sandown and has gone under the radar for trainer Tom George but looks the ideal type to thrive in a likely end-to-end gallop. The same can be said about Nicky Henderson’s Claimantakinforgan (1.30) who impressed in soft ground at Newbury and Ascot during the first-half of the campaign. Whilst disappointing last time out in Musselburgh, he is trainer Nicky Henderson’s sole runner in a race he historically has a good record in and reportedly thrived on the Lambourn gallops at the weekend. He looks too big at 14/1 and 4 places with BetVictor.

The Arkle gives us another warm favourite trained by Willie Mullins, ridden by Ruby Walsh, and unbeaten this season over obstacles. Footpad has done nothing wrong in his three wins over the larger obstacles but left the impression that Petit Mouchoir could reverse the form when the pair next meet at Cheltenham. I expect him to get closer than his four-length defeat last month at Leopardstown, but Saint Calvados (2.10) looks a potential superstar for fledgling trainer Harry Whittington and gets the nod to complete the four-timer under Aidan Coleman.

The French import made a winning British debut at Newbury in the autumn and has improved to win his next two starts, including making all to land the Kingmaker last month at Warwick. He should relish conditions and can hopefully give Coleman a first G1 success.

Both Buveur D’Air (3.30) and Apple’s Jade (4.10) are odds-on for their respective G1 contests and I can’t find any chinks in their armours for the Champion Hurdle and Mares’ Hurdle. Both won the corresponding races at the track 12 months ago and should win with the minimum of fuss for Messrs Henderson and Elliott.

The latter has a strong hand in the National Hunt Chase and, despite Fagan missing the race at the 11^th hour, Jury Duty and Mossback ensure the handler has the two market principles under the excellent Jamie Codd and Lisa O’Neill. BetVictor are paying four places on the race and I cannot see Ms Parfois (4.50) being out of the first quartet.

Anthony Honeyball’s star mare has won three times already this season over fences and, although finding Black Corton too good at Ascot, should improve for the step up in trip under the excellent Will Biddick.

I was on Movewiththetimes in the Novices’ Handicap Chase that completes the card and it’s fascinating to see him go for Thursday’s Festival Plate with owner JP McManus instead relying on Any Second Now (5.30) for Ted and Mark Walsh.

The selection chased home both Invitation Only and Monalee, both favourites for G1 Novice Chases later on in the week,  in his first two starts over fences earlier in the campaign and looks the class act amongst the strong 20-runner field.

The Ultima is a notoriously tricky handicap but Coo Star Sivola (2.50) looks to have been laid out for the race to give jockey Lizzie Kelly a first festival success. The selection has formed tied in with excellent novices Movewiththetimes and Kalondra and relished the step up in trip when winning over three miles last month at Exeter. He looks well-treated despite a 7lb rise at the weights. 

Singlefarmpayment was a narrow second 12 months ago and should be there or thereabouts from just a 3lb higher mark.

Selections

1.30 Summerville Boy/Claimantakinforgan

2.10 Saint Calvados (Nap)

2.50 Coo Star Sivola/Singlefarmpayment

3.30 Buveur D’Air

4.10 Apple’s Jade

4.50 Ms Parfois

5.30 Any Second Now

For all the latest odds head to www.BetVictor.com